TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Misunderstood geniusDifferent and extreme for the sake of being different and extreme. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Misunderstood geniusYou or Adolf Hitler? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Different and extreme for the sake of being different and extreme. I don't think it's fair to apply this to every aspect of his personality though. I know Andrew loves cooler than average weather, hiking and the Oregon Ducks legitimately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 It looks like we will be going into a very brief period of NW flow this afternoon. Wonders never cease! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 You or Adolf Hitler? Today is also my grandmother s bday. She is 93 today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Another gorgeous spring day in Seattle. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Another gorgeous spring day in Seattle. Screenshot_2.png I was actually there yesterday around lunch time... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Don't live in the past. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Endless rain on the 12Z ECMWF starting on Sunday for the rest of the run... impressive totals considering its almost May. Of course the usual rain shadow spots will fare better. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Endless rain on the 12Z ECMWF starting on Sunday for the rest of the run... impressive totals considering its almost May. Of course the usual rain shadow spots will fare better. Looks like more westerly flow compared to the dominant S/SW flow of the past couple months. Maybe. If that happens, then there will be a more pronounced rain shadow for many places inland. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 With a developing Niño there is probably a good chance October November are wet too. Hopefully summer behaves itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Looks like more westerly flow compared to the dominant S/SW flow of the past couple months. Maybe. If that happens, then there will be a more pronounced rain shadow for many places inland. Still amazing that at the end of the wettest Feb-Apr period ever... we are treated to a solid week of rain. I cannot find a year where there was not at least a 4-5 day period of dry weather out here in the foothills by the end of April. Not one. Until 2017. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Tim, We should a strong camping season with no Red Flag warnings based on all this rain. Look forward to it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Tim, We should a strong camping season with no Red Flag warnings based on all this rain. Look forward to it! Whoopity do! And it could still end up that way anyways. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Whoopity do! And it could still end up that way anyways. Just trying to cheer you up bud! I haven't been enjoying this spring much either, only got a couple days of good ski touring with nice corn snow and sun. Seems like our allowance has been one nice day a week since mid March, and it doesn't always align with my schedule and my friends schedules. I'm still hopeful that the rest of April and May is nice cool & clear nights and moderately warm sunny days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Just trying to cheer you up bud! I haven't been enjoying this spring much either, only got a couple days of good ski touring with nice corn snow and sun. Seems like our allowance has been one nice day a week since mid March, and it doesn't always align with my schedule and my friends schedules. I'm still hopeful that the rest of April and May is nice cool & clear nights and moderately warm sunny days! The rest of April looks crazy wet. I am holding out hope for May but even doubting that now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 The rest of April looks crazy wet. I am holding out hope for May but even doubting that now. May will be better. Probably much better. Phil's prediction of a relaxation of the pattern and warmer/drier second half of April looks to be in jeopardy. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Pretty ugly here this afternoon. Close to 1/3" in heavy showers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Looks like more westerly flow compared to the dominant S/SW flow of the past couple months. Maybe. If that happens, then there will be a more pronounced rain shadow for many places inland. I think several brief sunbreaks near the Space Needle cam could be a possibility on one or more afternoons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 May will be better. Probably much better. Phil's prediction of a relaxation of the pattern and warmer/drier second half of April looks to be in jeopardy. Hoping so! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 Still amazing that at the end of the wettest Feb-Apr period ever... we are treated to a solid week of rain. I cannot find a year where there was not at least a 4-5 day period of dry weather out here in the foothills by the end of April. Not one. Until 2017. 1961 isn't too bad of a match. SEA didn't hit 65 until May 15 that year. Nice summer followed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 1961 isn't too bad of a match. SEA didn't hit 65 until May 15 that year. Nice summer followed. That was a great summer. Basically started on 5/15 and was awesome through 10/15. Also had a very wet Feb-Apr period... in the top 5. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 I've had .59" of rain so far today and 7.1" of rain this month so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 That was a great summer. Basically started on 5/15 and was awesome through 10/15. Also had a very wet Feb-Apr period... in the top 5. 2003 was also similar, wall to wall rain in March and April and considerably dry after mid May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 I think several brief sunbreaks near the Space Needle cam could be a possibility on one or more afternoons. They've been quite numerous! Seattle is simply sunnier/drier than most places west of the Cascades, especially during the spring. Still plenty of sun now. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 May will be better. Probably much better. Phil's prediction of a relaxation of the pattern and warmer/drier second half of April looks to be in jeopardy.Starting in late April, continuing through early May, as a ridge temporarily builds in the GOA or just offshore. Though, I've underestimated the NPAC jet all year, so maybe I'm doing it again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 20, 2017 Report Share Posted April 20, 2017 If the 18z GFS is correct with the ridge amplifying that far offshore, then I'm going to bust with my warm-up call. I'm overdue for a bust anyway. Seems the modeling is also backing away from the stronger WWB pattern for May, as was depicted earlier. Verbatim, this is such a crucial period that a moderate/strong Niño might be avoided, should the WWB regime fail to verify. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 2003 was also similar, wall to wall rain in March and April and considerably dry after mid May.A hot summer and record warm October would be a nice change of pace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 2003 was also similar, wall to wall rain in March and April and considerably dry after mid May.We can only hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 A hot summer and record warm October would be a nice change of pace.2003 was not a hot summer. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 Pattern wise, we're definitely not following 2002/03 this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 2003 was not a hot summer. It was pretty warm. Warmer regionally than 2016, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2006, and 2005. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 2003 was not a hot summer. It was one of Portland's warmest ever, followed by a very warm and dry September/October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 Pattern wise, we're definitely not following 2002/03 this year. For sure. It's fun to wishcast though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 Pattern wise, we're definitely not following 2002/03 this year.Phil do you buy a warmer to hot compared to normal summer some are projecting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 Phil do you buy a warmer to hot compared to normal summer some are projecting? There are a handful of people here that will always "predict" a warm summer. Kind of like Jim with a cold winter. I wouldn't read too much into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 There are a handful of people here that will always "predict" a warm summer. Kind of like Jim with a cold winter. I wouldn't read too much into it. I think the biggest factor against a cool summer like 2012, 2011, 2010, or 2008 is that the atmosphere remains in a more similar state to the past few years, as opposed to the -ENSO/-PDO dominated 2006-2014 period. The cooler weather this winter/early spring was certainly more similar to those years, but the fact that ENSO has warmed quite a bit the past couple months and the PDO is rising again is not promising for a cool summer. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 I think the biggest factor against a cool summer like 2012, 2011, 2010, or 2008 is that the atmosphere remains in a more similar state to the past few years, as opposed to the -ENSO/-PDO dominated 2006-2014 period. The cooler weather this winter/early spring was certainly more similar to those years, but the fact that ENSO has warmed quite a bit the past couple months and the PDO is rising again is not promising for a cool summer. And also after spending so much time going over local daily history... years with ridiculously persistent rain all the way through April usually flip to something warm and dry for the balance of the summer and into fall. I don't count 1993 in that mix because February was record setting dry and that lasted well into March. Only April was really bad that spring. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 21, 2017 Report Share Posted April 21, 2017 Still amazing that at the end of the wettest Feb-Apr period ever... we are treated to a solid week of rain. I cannot find a year where there was not at least a 4-5 day period of dry weather out here in the foothills by the end of April. Not one. Until 2017.It's climate change. Blocking patterns or extended troughs and ridges are becoming the norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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