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2/28-3/2 Potential Storm


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tbh, I don't think I've seen a storm that has given the models this much trouble before. It seems like it's N then S then back N again after every run. Within 36 hours of this event and they are still struggling. The PV and where it goes is given them trouble. Weaker HP= more N  Stronger HP= more S. 

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Couple WWA issued. One in the GB area for tonight (3-5 inches) and one in the Quad Cities for tomorrow aft/night (3-5)

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
249 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...SNOW COLD COLD WEATHER SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SNOW FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND SOME CONSIDERABLE
DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL
WELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

IAZ051>054-063>068-076>078-ILZ007-009-015-010500-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WW.Y.0013.140301T1800Z-140302T1200Z/
BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-
SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-CARROLL-WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...
MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...
BETTENDORF...DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...
MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND
249 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM
CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY
TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SNOW RATES OF 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAY
OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IN SNOW AND CONSIDERABLE
DRIFTING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...19 ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY...AND AROUND -3 SATURDAY NIGHT.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 22 BELOW.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS...WITH
DRIFTING SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALSO EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLICK...SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND BE CAREFUL WHILE
DRIVING.

 
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE RETURN OF WARMER
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

WIZ020-021-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074-010300-
/O.EXB.KGRB.WW.Y.0007.140228T2100Z-140301T0600Z/
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SHAWANO-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-
KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KESHENA...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ
241 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT.

* THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

* A TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS AS ROADS BECOME SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY.
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Dominick, you may be right about the 2nd wave developing into the primary wave.  Let's see what the GFS has in store.

 

James, you were worried about suppression a few days back and look now, your in the sweet spot!  That's why you can't model watch each model run and say that is what will happen.  Things are turning the corner for your area and a lot of IA.

 

 

Here is the 18z 4KM NAM...I wouldn't be surprised to see some heavy snow fall rates where ever the heavy snow band sets up.  Looks like there will be adequate DGZ growth zone and bigger flake sizes if the wind doesn't break them apart.

 

 

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IT APPEARS THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A
1045 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING ONLY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST
IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. HOWEVER...I HAVE TRENDED A BIT
TOWARDS THE HIGHER QPF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT
ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE DGZ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE BAND THE FGEN...AND ALSO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF AID OF LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL IN
ALL...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW
DURING THE EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD DROP 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NW
INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT.

 

 

LOT AFD

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Overnight look off the coast:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-266-0-88659600-1393614995.jpg

 

Another satellite image:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/southwest/current/southwest.ir.gif

 

 

Doesn't this thing just look powerful?

 

I believe the central pressure this morning was 965mb and believe it has dropped even more since then. All the modeling were at least 20mb higher. Don't know if this will translate into anything later but it is still interesting to note.

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IT APPEARS THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE

STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD

ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A

1045 MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SET

THE STAGE FOR A FRONTOGENETIC INDUCED BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA

BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE

CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON AGREEMENT OF QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY

NIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING ONLY AROUND A

TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST

IN EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH OF QPF. HOWEVER...I HAVE TRENDED A BIT

TOWARDS THE HIGHER QPF SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT

ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH THE DGZ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE

FORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCED BY THE BAND THE FGEN...AND ALSO WITH THE

COMBINATION OF AID OF LARGER SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE

REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL IN

ALL...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW

DURING THE EVENING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...THEN

GRADUALLY SHIFTING ACROSS MY SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS

ACTIVITY COULD DROP 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NW

INDIANA SATURDAY NIGHT.

 

 

LOT AFD

 

I will take that. 2-4 inches from LOT.

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