2/28-3/2 Potential Storm

[Iowawx]

If models go north again today, we could be on to something. Need about a 30-50 mile shift north for me to be happy.

[Iowawx]

12z nam is out to hour 15.

[Sciascia]

New SREF plumes have a mean of 6.5" at ORD, with several over 10 inches. Just throwing it out there for consumption.

[Money]

SREF Plumes:

 

ORD: 6.5

OSH: 8.03 (lowest is 5.08. Highest is 11.4)

DBQ: 6.73

MSN: 7.43

[DominicR]

[Sciascia]

SREF Plumes:

 

ORD: 6.5

OSH: 8.03 (lowest is 5.08. Highest is 11.4)

DBQ: 6.73

MSN: 7.43

Thanks Moneybags!

[DominicR]

Thanks Moneybags!

 

Skilling mentioned about north trend to I heard last night.

[DominicR]

Also looks like half the 6z GFS ensemble members bring the .75" liquid line close.

[Money]

You take out the 3 with less than 2 inches in ORD and the mean jumps to 8. 

[Sciascia]

So the dude named Thundersnow on American told me the 6z GFS kept temps in the mid teens around here. That'd be a quality ratio event.

[abhidupage]

So the dude named Thundersnow on American told me the 6z GFS kept temps in the mid teens around here. That'd be a quality ratio event.

Indeed it does. if you check this out, http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KDPA. It shows no temps over 17 degrees or so

[Money]

12z NAM with 6-8 from about LSE to Sheboygan and south. About 7-8 for Chicago. 7-8 for DBQ and most of Iowa etc.

[Money]

3rd wave coming way north compared to 6z NAM.

[DominicR]

12z NAM with 6-8 from about LSE to Sheboygan and south. About 7-8 for Chicago. 7-8 for DBQ and most of Iowa etc.

 

Yeah good hit with 2nd wave for us. 3rd wave prob still be south most of us here.

[Money]

Yeah, but it's a step in the right direction from 0z/06z NAM.

[DominicR]

3rd wave might still be a miss mostly but it's north and D**n N IL/S WI would be sweet spot if 2nd wave slams us to.

[DominicR]

GFS gonna win this out. I have a feeling right now S WI/N IL in for surprises in next 24-36hrs.

[DominicR]

Even N IA/MI.

[Money]

3rd wave brings snows up to about Chicago this run (based on the composite reflectivity) 

[DominicR]

3rd wave brings snows up to about Chicago this run (based on the composite reflectivity) 

 

GFS not really showing the 2nd wave?

[Money]

GFS not really showing the 2nd wave?

 

It is. Shows 3-5 from IA to Chicago. About 1-2 in S. WI

[Money]

Then it shows 3-5/4-6 for the 3rd wave. Total of 6-10

[DominicR]

Ah I c but 2nd wave looks pretty good for most of WI looks like using instantweather maps on 06z GFS. Do you have clownmap for 12z NAM?

[Snowshoe]

I'll be happy with 2"

 

NWS Green Bay AFD for today and tonight

SNOW AMNT AMNT FCST HASN/T GOTTEN ANY MORE CLEAR CUT EITHER. ON
ONE HAND...VERY STG BAROCLINIC ZONE WL BE SETTING UP ON THE SW
FLANK OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR CURRENTLY ACRS THE RGN. BACKING
FLOW ALOFT WL HELP GENERATE STG ISENT LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE ATM IS BONE DRY. SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE IS
STARTING TO WORK EWD ACRS THE PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE
LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE 00Z RAOBS BACK IN
THE PLAINS...SOME OF THE QPFS ON THE MODELS LOOK FLAT OUT
UNATTAINABLE. SO TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE MODEST QPF OF THE ECMWF.
BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED...THAT SHOULD
STILL YIELD SNOWFALLS RANGING FM 1-2 INCHES IN FAR N-C WI...TO 2-4
INCHES OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE HIGHTEST TOTALS WL
PROBABLY BE IN DOOR COUNTY...WHERE SLY FLOW OFF THE UNFROZEN
PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN WL ADD MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO AN
INDICATION OF A LAKE BAND OVER THE LAKE NOW ON GRR RADAR AND STLT
IMAGERY...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THAT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED. WL POST
A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR WHERE FCST WL BE FOR 3-5 INCHES

[Money]

Most of the snow in WI is from the 1st wave. 2nd wave is south of S. WI.

 

And I do not.

[Geos]

12z NAM

 

 

2-4" here in the grid.

[Trinomial]

Hey guys!what is the timing Saturday? Is it starting in the afternoon? Thanks!

[Money]

12z GFS:

 

Wave 1: 3-5 from osh up towards GB

Wave 2: 3-5 from IA NE up to Milwaukee and down in N. IL

[Money]

Wave 3: Looks like a miss for Chicago. South of 6z.

[Money]

SE Nebraska goes from 10-12 on 6z GFS to 1-2 on the 12z.

 

Ouch.

[DominicR]

Congrats N MO/C IL/IN/OH. Another 6-12 inches for them. I can take my 3-5 inches tommorow. I am done with this.

[Sciascia]

This is getting humorous. GFS has been such an egg with the 3rd wave. Wobbles north then wobbles south then back north and back south...who's got the Vegas odds on 18z going back north?

[Money]

Congrats N MO/C IL/IN/OH. Another 6-12 inches for them. I can take my 3-5 inches tommorow. I am done with this.

 

This isn't even sampled yet lol

[Sciascia]

Instant maps for GFS still showing 6-8" over here.

[DominicR]

Instant maps for GFS still showing 6-8" over here.

 

?

[Sciascia]

?

Whoops; my bad. I had old link in my browser. Also forgot today was the 28th.

[DominicR]

Whoops; my bad. I had old link in my browser. Also forgot today was the 28th.

 

Go on americanwx look at 12hr maps Chicagowx posted of 12z UKMET and let us know how it looks or if u can post them here to.

[Sciascia]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-47563400-1393603130.gif

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-13168000-1393603137.gif

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-57970700-1393603143.gif

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-66916000-1393603150.gif

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-68-0-51790300-1393603157.gif

 

 

I'd say south.

[DominicR]

Ah crap.

[Sciascia]

I'd estimate the UKMet has about .40 precip here. A solid advisory level event. But again, no sampling yet. Much like food, it's good to have sampling before knowing what's really going on.

 

EDIT: It's getting that time where Tom checks in. Dude's always got some wisdom to share.