2/28-3/2 Potential Storm

[Hawkeye]

There is barely any Friday system left on the GFS.

[Money]

From 12-14 to 1-2 in 2 days on the GFS.

 

Ouch.

[Hawkeye]

From 12-14 to 1-2 in 2 days on the GFS.

 

Ouch.

 

In addition to the weakening Friday wave, a steady slide southward continues for the weekend snow.  The excitement of a couple days ago is fading, although I always knew the initial GFS precip totals were likely overdone by a fair amount.

[Tony]

12z GFS

[East Dubzz]

Very nice hit for Nothern Missouri. Looking like it's gonna turn into another couple nickle and dimers with suppression winning over. What's new!

[Sciascia]

Still time to wobble either north or south. Not showing the 12"+ from 2 days ago, but 8-9" is nothing to be disappointed in.

[Tony]

We just need this to phase and we would all be sitting pretty.

 

Unfortunately this wave is just too weak so the PV just keeps pushing it south. If it was a little stronger it might have a chance but not looking good as the trend has been less qpf the last couple runs. Until we get better sampling its going to be a back n forth ride. I can handle the snow but if the PV keeps pushing the storms south of us then what good is it anyway.

[East Dubzz]

Totally OT here, but have a quick question for you guys...

 

My weather station is arriving today, and I'm trying to think of where would be a good place to put the temperature sensor.. What would you guys suggest?

[DominicR]

Totally OT here, but have a quick question for you guys...

 

My weather station is arriving today, and I'm trying to think of where would be a good place to put the temperature sensor.. What would you guys suggest?

 

I had problem with this at first but I stuck it near light pool in middle of right grass and reads it pretty good. I also thought about strapping it on top of garage roof but it probably would read it to hot during summer months and against back of house works good.

[DominicR]

Not bad run though guys. It would be 6-8 inches for most of northern LOT and a solid 8+ southern LOT/ILX. Lot's of time to keep an eye on this. My main concern is global models following suite or not.

[winterfreak]

This reminds me of the storm on the 4th.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

[james1976]

supression is back

[Money]

Heard euro is back nw from previous runs.

[Tom]

Yup, its back farther NW from its previous runs...the sat night wave looks good for S WI/IA...then the main event comes a bit farther north and loads up the moisture.  Looks like the Sun/Mon wave comes out in front of the main High building in from the Dakotas which may not suppress it much farther south.

[Money]

Chicago is def. still in the game considering this is 108-120 hrs out yet for the most part.

[Tom]

12z Euro snowfall...Still plenty of time to watch this system.

[indianajohn]

Lol as Skilling made a comment on everyone's wish casting today he isn't to optimistic about the upcoming storms

[Tony]

I have not seen the Euro maps but what I have heard is that the reason Euro shifted NW is because it has partially phased with the PV and is going negative tilt east of the Mississippi. Not sure this is true but definitely a good sign for us if it does happen as this would keep it from being forced too far south.

 

What do you guys think??

[Tom]

Tony, the 12z Euro does show it developing a more organized SLP as it rides up the OV.  Could be interesting if this is a trend for future runs.

[Money]

We aren't even close to the NAM range yet, lot of time. Weaker HP and a stronger wave could def. mean a much more stronger phase in upcoming runs.

[Geos]

Lol as Skilling made a comment on everyone's wish casting today he isn't to optimistic about the upcoming storms

 

Kind of surprised he has upper 20s for highs this weekend.

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f108.html

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f114.html

 

GFS ensembles. Some look good for Chicago area, others a more suppressed look.

[Money]

GFS ensembles 72 HR precip at HR 138 for all waves.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_12z/f138.html

 

The OP GFS seemed like the most suppressed out of those models at least up this way.

[Tom]

If tonight's 00z runs show any sign of a northerly jog then I'll be more enthusiastic of this becoming a bigger event that what it looks like right now.

[The Snowman]

Recall that models have a bias to be too south with storm tracks.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Recall that models have a bias to be too south with storm tracks.

 

Not this year, if anything the trend has been colder and south/southeast with this year's systems, that's why I'm still worried about a complete screwjob.

[Money]

Not this year, if anything the trend has been colder and south/southeast with this year's systems, that's why I'm still worried about a complete screwjob.

 

Not the last rain storm. 

[Tom]

If I remember correctly, the Jan 4-5th storm was a complete surprise until around 3-4 days out when models caught on to the system.  If by Thursday the models continue with a southern trend, I'd start worrying of a suppressed event.  The GFS for example, has a tendency to loose the system in the medium range, then bring it back 2-3 days out.  This is a complex storm, unlike last week's storm that had a vigorous SLP that is easier for the models to pick up on which lead to a very consistent storm track days away.

[Money]

18z NAM with 8-9 for the 1st wave in WI lol

 

Less suppressed 

[Tom]

18z NAM trying to amplify the Friday night wave sending it farther north...

[Money]

18z NAM trying to amplify the Friday night wave sending it farther north...

 

Yeah.

 

2nd wave looks good for Chicago/MKE with it strengthening by HR 81. Looks like the HP is a bit farther west as well and not as suppressed. 

[Money]

6+ from GB to N. IL on the 18z NAM and still snowing. 

[DominicR]

LOT must be riding the EURO big time. Just mentions possibly a few inches Fri night and 2nd wave mostly south.

[Tom]

18z NAM showing a lot of snow from I-80 on north from the 1st 2 waves Friday into Saturday.  If this baroclinic zone can stay put and the 3rd bigger wave on Sun/Mon can ride up along it, than this could become the bigger deal we saw from earlier runs of the GFS.

[Tom]

18z GFS way weaker with 1st wave but has more snow building out in the Plains and Nebraska thru 15z Saturday compared to the 18z NAM...

[Money]

Wave 2 is north  main band is looking about the same.

[Tom]

18z GFS hammers N KS/NE this run...still snowing hard

[Money]

6-7 for ORD all together this run.

[Sciascia]

6-8" here between 3z on the 1st & 3z on the 3rd.