2/28-3/2 Potential Storm

[Hawkeye]

In the end, just another nickel and dimer for the area. Over 50" now for the year, and only one warning level storm, and that was 6" on the spot. That's just hard to believe!

 

This series of systems over the weekend could be a fitting summary of the entire winter...  our area gets another couple nickel/dimers while northern Missouri through Indiana gets hit good.

[Tony]

Baby steps to a better phasing on this run but just not quite there yet but it seems like the runs have gone a little farther north with precip. Still is hope for a bigger storm as we wait patiently for the Euro to come in farther north as well.

[Niko]

Right now I am forecast to get zero inches. Storm is too far south. Lets see what happens. East Coast gets clobbered. A 12"+ storm for them from DC to Boston.

[Tony]

This is what I have looked into(and been influenced from other forum posts) so far with the 12z GFS. The northern stream is weaker on the 12z compared to the 0z/06z The 0z Euro also showed a weaker northern stream which is why the northern push. Its all going to come down to how strong the artic push will be. So far the trend, if you can call it that, has been a weaker push. I also looked at the video from Bernie Rayno from Accuweather and his concern was also how far south the artic front would go and this would determine how far north with the heavy snow. He also mentioned the Euro being weaker than the GFS but this was before the 12z GFS modeling.

 

Just something to think about while waiting for the Euro.

[james1976]

i havent looked at any models today....too irritating

[Sciascia]

Anyone got images of the GEFS? Read elsewhere that 3-4 are north of OP GFS, 3-4 are south of OP GFS, and the rest are similar to OP GFS.

[Geos]

This is what I have looked into(and been influenced from other forum posts) so far with the 12z GFS. The northern stream is weaker on the 12z compared to the 0z/06z The 0z Euro also showed a weaker northern stream which is why the northern push. Its all going to come down to how strong the artic push will be. So far the trend, if you can call it that, has been a weaker push. I also looked at the video from Bernie Rayno from Accuweather and his concern was also how far south the artic front would go and this would determine how far north with the heavy snow. He also mentioned the Euro being weaker than the GFS but this was before the 12z GFS modeling.

 

Just something to think about while waiting for the Euro.

 

Really good point by him.

Have to watch out for dry mid levels in the beginning too.

[Tony]

Geos, wouldn't the mid levels be saturated already with the first couple waves??

[Tom]

12z Euro south...

 

[Tony]

Terrible run for us. Another run like this and it will be time to throw in the towel. The only thing stopping me is that the Euro has not done very well this year and there has not been any sampling of the system.

[Sciascia]

Ouch; just after it had been showing northward progress the previous 2 runs. That leaves the GFS as the outlier.

 

Early, non-sampled indications are pointing at a 2-4" snow around these parts. That's enough to break the 70" marker.

[East Dubzz]

DVN AFD this morning was not too exciting...said 1-2" for the first event and didn't mention amounts for anything else besides that. But I guess for most of the area, we'll just be getting snow from the 1st and 2nd wave, which also looks like a 1-3" event. Looks like the snow for the weekend in my area would be done by about midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning if the Euro is correct.

[Geos]

Geos, wouldn't the mid levels be saturated already with the first couple waves??

 

Well before the first one.

 

Skilling just posted this.

 

[james1976]

the euro went back south? lol
DMX saying 3-6 for the whole weekend for my area. likely no snow after saturday.

[Tom]

I was reading that the storm hitting Cali on Friday had a central pressure comparable to a Cat 4 Hurricane.  Only if this baby could phase and become stronger than what the models are currently showing.  Tomorrow night's 00z runs will have much better sampling so still a lot of time for some shifts.

[Snowshoe]

Forecast map through 5pm Sunday.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_WI.png

[Money]

GFS:

 

1st wave: Affects most of WI/IA/MN.

 

3 IN spots showing up around here up to GB and over towards the LSE area.

 

2-3 IN amounts in N. IA and S. MN. 

 

1 or so around Chicago/Milwaukee.

 

2nd Wave: Affects most of IA/N. MO/NE/S. WI/N. IL with a general 4-6 IN amounts. 

[Madtown]

amazing how that gradient follows the county lines in southwest wi. LOL

[DominicR]

Looks a bit more healthy for N NE and IA. Wow snowfall map looks identical to Jan 4th-5th storm.

[winterfreak]

Man it's dead on here lol. No maps or analysis. GFS must've done everyone in.

[East Dubzz]

Was just looking at hour 54 on the GFS when it brings some pretty decent snow through the air. Here is what it is showing QPF-wise for that time:

Also took a look at the temperature profiles, pretty nice dendritic growth zone and some cold temps:

[Tom]

Mike Caplan wrote on FB that the earlier Microcast model that he showed at 4:00pm which had around 2" for N IL is now coming in much more significant for Sat. night.

[FV-Mike]

Brant Miller had wide swath of 5-7 across NIL

[FV-Mike]

This was by the end of Sunday

[Tom]

Even if we do get 4-6" from this event it would push ORD above 70" for the season which is a remarkable achievement nonetheless.  FWIW, the trend on the models have been showing a lot of moisture to work with overall in the Plains/Midwest which suggests to me it may even get better as the data comes in from the balloon network.

[DominicR]

Right now lake shore counties look good for 6+ I don't think western burbs will reach warning criteria. Again, heaviest downstate. Assuming GFS wins or we are screwed but NAM seems to be picking it up now.

[tim the weatherman]

Mike Caplan wrote on FB that the earlier Microcast model that he showed at 4:00pm which had around 2" for N IL is now coming in much more significant for Sat. night.

he just said that farther north is going to get more sigifcant snows than we thought

[ChicagoToSeattle]

here's what Skilling said

 

"Contradictory indications frm models Sun. Model jet stream structure fcst suggests sending snow south is wrong. We're sticking wi snow Sun"

[Madtown]

i'll believe it when I see it

[Tom]

I noticed Skilling's loop of his RPM model showing mixing precip Sunday in C IL and widespread snow developing over IA/IL towards the end of the loop.  Models may be on to something now.

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like that northren illinois iowa  southren wisconsin and all the way to no ohio is going to get the heaviest band of snow and the way tom said about skilling showed woit the rpm model that mixing looks to be over central il.

[The Snowman]

Tom said what I first thought when I looked over the storm a few days back. Wouldn't be surprised to see a north shift.

[ChiTownWeather]

The forum was pretty quiet today after the 12z runs haha. I think its more likely than not that we see a northward trend, its been very common this winter. Caplan and Skilling both made Facebook posts today about increased snow amounts. 

 

But looking at the last two runs of the GFS, there is a nice fetch coming off the lake and enhancing snow totals in adjacent counties

[tim the weatherman]

Tom said what I first thought when I looked over the storm a few days back. Wouldn't be surprised to see a north shift.

you're right the snowman that the what tom has said about skilling that we are looking a north shift that will put no il to no oh in the heaviest snow to a foot to foot and a half or to a two footer.

[ChicagoToSeattle]

As I've gained to appreciate via Tom's advocacy for the LRC, I must say that the modeling and tracking of this system seems matched up well with the early January storm that socked Chicago. 

[Tom]

FWIW, the latest 12z CFSv2 snowfall map showing 2 of its 4 members indicating a snowstorm from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI.  This map accounts for current snow cover and the projected snow for the snowstorm this weekend.  You can see the heaviest corridor of 12"+ in the greyish/brown color.

[BrianJK]

you're right the snowman that the what tom has said about skilling that we are looking a north shift that will put no il to no oh in the heaviest snow to a foot to foot and a half or to a two footer.

lol - I love it

[NEJeremy]

you're right the snowman that the what tom has said about skilling that we are looking a north shift that will put no il to no oh in the heaviest snow to a foot to foot and a half or to a two footer.

Sorry but 18-24" of snow isn't going to fall with this system

[tim the weatherman]

FWIW, the latest 12z CFSv2 snowfall map showing 2 of its 4 members indicating a snowstorm from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/S MI.  This map accounts for current snow cover and the projected snow for the snowstorm this weekend.  You can see the heaviest corridor of 12"+ in the greyish/brown color.

it is the two left ones.

[Tom]

^ Yes, you stand correct...