2/28-3/2 Potential Storm

[winterfreak]

Well the GFS is certainly beautiful around these parts.

[clintbeed1993]

Either the NAM or GFS is on serious crack, let's hope it's the NAM.  Can't look past how consistent the GFS has been with this system.

[Money]

8-9 for ORD and 1-2 for MKE.

 

Been that kind of winter lol

[Tom]

It's almost hard to even say that the GFS has been so consistent with this system from 2-3 days ago.  I find it hard to believe that it hammers the NE/KS/MO area but then looses its steam as it heads east.  If the storm can maintain its strength and phase a little better this can produce more snow even farther north up to S WI.

[clintbeed1993]

It's almost hard to even say that the GFS has been so consistent with this system from 2-3 days ago.  I find it hard to believe that it hammers the NE/KS/MO area but then looses its steam as it heads east.  If the storm can maintain its strength and phase a little better this can produce more snow even farther north up to S WI.

 

 

Yeah heaviest has definitely shifted a lot even on the GFS.  It has definitely been the most consistent in showing a good snow though.

[Money]

Yeah, GFS has been far from consistent. I really don't think any model has been consistent and this seems like a pain in the butt to track because of that.

 

2 days ago GFS had widespread 14-16 across most of IA/IL/S. WI etc. 

[Madtown]

I think we should all give up on models for one week no looking at forecasts no model watch and just see what falls from the sky and what the temps do. might be more fun at this point

[Tom]

Hopefully GGEM/EURO come on board and spread the love...

[Jaycee]

If any model has been consistent though it's the GFS. Every other model has been all over the place it seems like, except maybe the EURO.

[gabel23]

Hopefully GGEM/EURO come on board and spread the love...

Agree, biggest thing we all have to like is the nam really is the only model showing nothing. At least the others are showing something, just hope gfs is onto something and maintains/strengthens over time. This thing is so far out it can change for better or worse!

[Money]

GGEM HR 72

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif

 

12z GGEM HR 84

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/233_100.gif

[DominicR]

Using a 20:1 ratio ORD would be good for warning snows 6-10 inches and maybe some lake enhancement. Even if this verifies I am happy with it.

[DominicR]

Tom how does GGEM look?

[clintbeed1993]

Tom how does GGEM look?

 

 

Hopefully better than earlier.

[Geos]

On the lake enhancement front. Parameters look a little better around 84 hours, but the inversion shows up afterwards. Probably only safe to say minor additional LEhS moisture at this point.

 

[Money]

GGEM is much farther NW from 12z.. don't have precip maps yet 

 

0z GGEM 

 

HR 108: 1004 MB L AL/MS/TN Border

 

12z GGEM

 

HR 120: 1009 MB L S. AL

[Tom]

00z GGEM is crap...

[Money]

EURO HR 96

 

1006 L in C ARK

[clintbeed1993]

Can you all post the EURO when you get the precip maps?

[Tom]

00z Euro came north this run...

 

Edit: The heavy snow band shifted north about 75 miles in IL/IN

[Tom]

This storm is beginning to look really similar to the Jan 4-5th storm...

[DominicR]

Looks better at least

[Money]

All you guys need in Chicago is a little bit more shift N and you could be nearly in the heavy band.

 

Looking good for at least 4+ though.

[Tom]

So basically the Euro has shifted north every run from last nights 00z run.  For example, 00z last night it had the heavy snow band from St Louis to Indy to C OH...12z today it shifted north to N MO/Springfield, IL/Cleveland, OH...now the latest 00z run from tonight: IA/MO border to Kankakee, IL to southern suburbs of DTX.  Each run it has been shifting north every so slowly.

[Tom]

So basically at this point it is GFS vs Euro...tomorrow will be very interesting if the northward jog continues.

 

GGEM is basically whacked...

[Money]

Check out the differences in the HP on the 0z EURO compared to last nights euro. Much weaker this run.

[MarcusBeier]

Theres posts on Facebook now calling predictions of this "storm" a hoax! wtf

[Tom]

Money, I did notice the HP was weaker as well.  I can see this shift another 100 miles north at the rate it's going now.  At least we are seeing a trend north rather than south.

[DominicR]

NAM looks almost non-existant. 500mb wave almost gone as it heads to Plains.

[Tom]

At 84 hours, NAM is no bueno...wait till it gets into range and how juicy this will become.  Euro is getting juicier each run east of the Mississippi river...and the GFS is going ballistic in N KS/S NE/N MO.

[DominicR]

At 84 hours, NAM is no bueno...wait till it gets into range and how juicy this will become.  Euro is getting juicier each run east of the Mississippi river...and the GFS is going ballistic in N KS/S NE/N MO.

 

Overall, GFS been quite constant with snowfall maps. LOT afd yesterday was a dud.

[Tony]

I listed to JB on one of his videos and he believes that the heavy snow will make it into Chicago and really pound the east coast. The key is to when the phase actually happens and the faster and farther west it phases the better chance our forum will have of seeing a major event out of this. We still have a couple more days before partial sampling will be injested into the models so I would not give up hope just yet as most of us are still in the game. Even the way it looks right at this moment we still would see several inches of snow.

 

We might see a couple inches from Friday into Saturday but not looking like anything more than that at this point.

[Tony]

Looks like wave #2 on the NAM has come north and gives us some love.

[DominicR]

Looks like wave #2 on the NAM has come north and gives us some love.

 

1st wave looks like it could give us 3-4 inches. More in WI and MI and main one looks really weak.

[Money]

12z GFS is a bit better than 6z GFS.

 

3-4 IN line gets to just n. of MKE or so.

 

Main band developing a tad farther N as well. Going to be a close call for ORD this run.

[DominicR]

12z GFS is a bit better than 6z GFS.

 

3-4 IN line gets to just n. of MKE or so.

 

Main band developing a tad farther N as well. Going to be a close call for ORD this run.

 

Very similar to Jan 4th-5th storm as Tom said. Looks like lakeside could cash out well even if heaviest remains central states.

[Sciascia]

6-8" at ORD thru 114hrs. Better than the 3-5" on the 6z.

[Geos]

12z GFS

 

[East Dubzz]

In the end, just another nickel and dimer for the area. Over 50" now for the year, and only one warning level storm, and that was 6" on the spot. That's just hard to believe!

[DominicR]

ggem looks pretty surpressed.