PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

How is that cherry picking.  I have stated repeatedly our winters bottomed out in the 1999-2000 through 2005-06 period.  Just demonstrating the come back.  SEA is the same story.  How can you still say the winters are warming?

BTW...I'm sure 2006-07 through 2015-16 were colder than 1999-2000 through 2005-06 also.  No way to say the winters are warming.

I’m sure you didn’t get excited over a -2° departure in 1999.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Spring/Autumn temperature trends are more balanced, and I think show a more accurate portrayal of the change in our energy budget and our anthropogenic warming. Comes to about 2-3F over time, which feels about right.

That logic doesn't work for much of the U.S., though. The SE in particular has seen very little warming over the same period.

[Guest administrator]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

These comments are why we can never come to a mutual understanding on the subject.

It’s HAARP that has been causing are weird warm weather. How come you can’t accept that truth?

[snow_wizard]

People need to remember the summer warming has a cause that does not apply to the other seasons.  Paleo climatology has demonstrated naturally occurring modulation in the northern extent of the 4CH influence.  It is nothing out of bounds from what has happened in the past.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Exactly.

Exactly what?  It has cooled since then.  Your case for winters being in a warming cycle is very weak.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

People need to remember the summer warming has a cause that does not apply to the other seasons.  Paleo climatology has demonstrated naturally occurring modulation in the northern extent of the 4CH influence.  It is nothing out of bounds from what has happened in the past.

Plz stop spewing misinformation and let’s just stick to ogling the 10-15 day EPS 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That logic doesn't work for much of the U.S., though. The SE in particular has seen very little warming over the same period.

Furthermore there are places that have actually cooled in January this century in spite of our torchy ones.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Plz stop spewing misinformation and let’s just stick to ogling the 10-15 day EPS 

So you are the arbiter of misinformation?  Alrighty then.

The winter numbers speak for themselves.  Talk to me in 10 years and we'll see where we are then.

[snow_wizard]

Amazing how people can look at hard numbers and somehow shrug them off.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Amazing how people can look at hard numbers and somehow shrug them off.

My head almost exploded with irony when I read this. Please don’t endanger my life like this again.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The funny thing is nobody really knows what the *** is happening with the climate lol .

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Furthermore there are places that have actually cooled in January this century in spite of our torchy ones.

People are too quick to attribute regional trends wholly to AGW (which is definitely real), but there are other factors that over the course of decades play a significant role.

Same issue with attributing natural disasters to AGW. Too easy, and only works if you ignore the greater data.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

So you are the arbiter of misinformation?  Alrighty then.

The winter numbers speak for themselves.  Talk to me in 10 years and we'll see where we are then.

Yes, if you look at the numbers at actual stations and don’t cherry pick random five year periods, they have been steadily warming.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Love Eastwood spaghetti westerns.  Watching the end of a Fistful of Dollars.  A Few Dollars More will be in in about 10 minutes.  Great day for rain.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, administrator said:

I feel like we’re a generation away from seeing Feb 2019 treated with the same reverence as Jan 1950.

”Lowland snow in February? Unthinkable in the 2060s”

There were definitely people in the 1990s/early 2000s saying lowland snow in the PNW would be rare and foreign by now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Left wingers have a real problem with numbers that disagree with their narrative or thruths that disagree.

Does this mean you’re a left winger then?  

[Meatyorologist]

Winters have steadily warmed since the 60s. Just recently our running 10 year averages just passed the 42.5F mark. 50 years ago they hovered between 40.5F-41.5F. Makes sense for AGW, if not a little more blunted than I'd expect.

[DeepFriedEgg]

This has cold air dumping east written all over it. East coast weenies are going to hit the jackpot.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yes, if you look at the numbers at actual stations and don’t cherry pick random five year periods, they have been steadily warming.

Like I say...talk to me in 10 years.  This winter could very well sink your narrative even further.  Winters now are colder than they were 20 years ago.  Not looking good for people saying otherwise.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Left wingers have a real problem with numbers that disagree with their narrative or thruths that disagree.

Leave the political talk for the appropriate thread, please.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

This has cold air dumping east written all over it. East coast weenies are going to hit the jackpot.

Good Lord.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Leave the political talk for the appropriate thread, please.

It's germane in this case.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Some of that warming is the cement and infrastructure.  Also, many more recording stations.  Ultimately, I don't think there's any way to prove actual warming at this point.  All factors are not the same.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Like I say...talk to me in 10 years.  This winter could very well sink your narrative even further.  Winters now are colder than they were 20 years ago.  Not looking good for people saying otherwise.

I bet if we looked at a trend line containing only 1958 and 2019 we could make the argument that summer’s are cooling as well. Sky’s the limit!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's germane in this case.

Those comments are unfair and generalizing, even in a non-political context. Think about what you say and how it might affect others. Empathy is the cornerstone of a healthy discussion.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Winters have steadily warmed since the 60s. Just recently our running 10 year averages just passed the 42.5F mark. 50 years ago they hovered between 40.5F-41.5F. Makes sense for AGW, if not a little more blunted than I'd expect.

Do you have that for OLM? From the data I can see, the trend at SEA seems to have enhanced the warming about double from more rural stations, due to increased UHI. Similar to PDX and SLE.

[SnowPlz]

One thing I really enjoy about this forum is dems and republicans alike joke around together and have fun talking about weather and life. It would be really disappointing if that ended. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Winters have steadily warmed since the 60s. Just recently our running 10 year averages just passed the 42.5F mark. 50 years ago they hovered between 40.5F-41.5F. Makes sense for AGW, if not a little more blunted than I'd expect.

No doubt it warmed until about 2007.  The graph is just showing the lag effect.  We shall see where it goes.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowPlz said:

One thing I really enjoy about this forum is dems and republicans alike joke around together and have fun talking about weather and life. It would be really disappointing if that ended. 

It won't.

[RentonHill]

ICON with another big move at Day 5

[snow_wizard]

All I know is this winter has the chance of being the coldest in a long time and I'm going to enjoy it.

[WildrootParable]

2 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

One thing I really enjoy about this forum is dems and republicans alike joke around together and have fun talking about weather and life. It would be really disappointing if that ended. 

Hard agree. Even from an outside perspective as a mostly-lurker, I admire the sense of humor, shared expertise, good-natured ribbing, and inside jokery that happens here. The way you all banter often makes me chuckle out loud. At the risk of sounding sappy, you all have made something very special in this corner of the interwebs. It's worth continuing to work for it. 

My two cents. *climbs back into underground lurker-den*

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Winters have steadily warmed since the 60s. Just recently our running 10 year averages just passed the 42.5F mark. 50 years ago they hovered between 40.5F-41.5F. Makes sense for AGW, if not a little more blunted than I'd expect.

UHI expansion.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON with another big move at Day 5

Very favorable trends today.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

UHI expansion.

Yes...I should have pointed that out.  Also lag effect in the running average from the peak we had earlier in the century.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ICON with another big move at Day 5

Yeah. Wow. Day 4.5 (3-run trend)

[Meatyorologist]

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/forum/27-off-topic/

Alright, that's enough. Going to start handing out 6hr tempbans if this discussion continues. It's clogging up the thread and is only leading to petty conflict.

If anyone wants to create an appropriate venue for the subject, there's always the Off-Topic board. I might join in on that myself if anyone makes a Climate Change thread!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

Hard agree. Even from an outside perspective as a mostly-lurker, I admire the sense of humor, shared expertise, good-natured ribbing, and inside jokery that happens here. The way you all banter often makes me chuckle out loud. At the risk of sounding sappy, you all have made something very special in this corner of the interwebs. It's worth continuing to work for it. 

My two cents. *climbs back into underground lurker-den*

You need not worry.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

One thing I really enjoy about this forum is dems and republicans alike joke around together and have fun talking about weather and life. It would be really disappointing if that ended. 

And some of us are neither.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/forum/27-off-topic/

Alright, that's enough. Going to start handing out 6hr tempbans if this discussion continues. It's clogging up the thread and is only leading to petty conflict.

If anyone wants to create an appropriate venue for the subject, there's always the Off-Topic board. I might join in on that myself if anyone makes a Climate Change thread!

You were part of the discussion.  Just sayin.

That said, I thought it was kind of interesting.