August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Close up on Houston rainfall totals over the last 72 hours...25-37"!

 

 

 

[Niko]

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/photo-harvey-flooding-houston-airport-totally-fake-185531446.html

[Minny_Weather]

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/photo-harvey-flooding-houston-airport-totally-fake-185531446.html

Being from Houston, it's obvious it's fake. IAH is not close to any flood-prone bodies of water, the closest one being the West Fork San Jac a couple miles away. Even in an apocalyptic scenario, the airport wouldn't flood that much

[Niko]

Still raining IMBY. Tbh, they were not expecting this much water. Rain and storms should subside ovanight.

[OKwx2k4]

I refuse to go out on that limb myself. Last yr is the reason. Snow advance index was strong (though lack of advance on our side of the globe was worrying me), we started with the unexpected over-performing storm on Dec 4th then had a fantastic stretch from the 8th to the 20th. All systems looked GO for a great season....then the wheels came off

Lol. At least your winter last year had some wheels to begin with. Mine never even made it out of the driveway. 5th warmest in 118 years leaves a substantial margin for improvement. I guess I can safely take the under on temps and the over on snow and be pretty safe.

 

You are right also on the snow placement in Canada last year. I quietly worried about that all of the early part of winter. With no snow, you really have no legitimate shot of building the required airmasses to drive cold south. I should've paid more attention to it. I could have made a forecast correction based on it and a few other factors I had saw by the 2nd part of December (I missed badly and knew it) but I figured it was too late by then.

 

Either way, I hate my options at this point because they are all either top 15 warm winters for me or top 15 cold and about 70 percent of my years had an ice storm within 100 miles or directly here. Not what I was hoping my research would lead me to so far.

[Niko]

Its  cloudy and a touch humid out there. Temps @ 68F. T'stms possible later today again.

[Tom]

League City West, TX with a eye popping 52.88" of rain so far and may surpass 60" when all sudden done.  I have no words.

[jaster220]

League City West, TX with a eye popping 52.88" of rain so far and may surpass 60" when all sudden done.  I have no words.

 

Regardless of that fake airport pic (not fake, just not Houston, nor an actual storm event), there's plenty of misery to go around due to Harvey's visit. Also hoping his eastward progress doesn't get too great to where my sis and her family in Baton Rouge incur another flood. They just recovered from that bad one last year. Fingers crossed

[Minny_Weather]

This is definitely a terrifying situation. And a mess. My mom was forced to evacuate from her 3rd floor apartment, which I disagree with because the water is only to the first floor and there's only ~6" until crest. In her case and in the case of everyone else in a situation like her, it was safer to shelter in place. Anywho, this is a definitely a scary event, and it upsets me that I can't be there to help. But having grown up around Houstonians, I know they'll recover just fine.

[james1976]

Crazy......

https://www.cnet.com/news/hurricane-harvey-new-colors-national-weather-service-maps-texas-louisiana-tropical-storm-harvey/

[Tom]

Arctic temps broke the streak of 120+ days below normal as they popped above normal for the first time this past week fromp what I can tell.  Recent trends are showing them nose dive as the pattern up in the northern latitude quickly transitions into a "short" period of Autumn wx that will turn to Winter thereafter.

 

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

[Tom]

Models are trending cooler around my local and the GL's region for Thu/Fri period as temps may not get out of the upper 60's.  Blocking HP will center itself and take control.

[Niko]

With all the rain I picked up last night, I am assuming my rainfall is above average for the month.

[Niko]

Being from Houston, it's obvious it's fake. IAH is not close to any flood-prone bodies of water, the closest one being the West Fork San Jac a couple miles away. Even in an apocalyptic scenario, the airport wouldn't flood that much

Of course its fake. Even if the story did not say it, that pic is never likely to happen.

[East Dubzz]

Beaumont, TX is just getting absolutely hammered today, and it looks like they're about to get killed with another heavy band for a while.

[Tom]

It's another hazy/foggy, damp morning around these parts, more widespread than previous mornings.  Sunrises are noticeably later every morning as it was only about week or so ago the sun rose just after 6:00am.  I think we lost close to 30 min of daylight since the last time I posted about it.  

 

Today: Sunrise 6:14 Sunset 7:26...won't be long before we loose another hour.

[Tom]

The state of the QBO through 8/28 is still solidly negative and does not show any indication of it changing course...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

[Niko]

Its a foggy morning out there. Looks like "Spooky October"

[jaster220]

The state of the QBO through 8/28 is still solidly negative and does not show any indication of it changing course...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

Its a foggy morning out there. Looks like "Spooky October"

 

My brain is foggy on exactly which QBO phase(s) are favorable for us and where does the above chart fit into that? I know that the QBO ruined last winter because it didn't flip when it normally does (iirc), so are we expecting a seasonal switch going forward?

[Niko]

My brain is foggy on exactly which QBO phase(s) are favorable for us and where does the above chart fit into that? I know that the QBO ruined last winter because it didn't flip when it normally does (iirc), so are we expecting a seasonal switch going forward?

All depends. Who knows?!

[Tom]

My brain is foggy on exactly which QBO phase(s) are favorable for us and where does the above chart fit into that? I know that the QBO ruined last winter because it didn't flip when it normally does (iirc), so are we expecting a seasonal switch going forward?

Last year, we had a +QBO or orange colors on the map above which did us no good for winter wx fans over the eastern 2/3 rd's. Since the Spring, you can see the flip which began in late Feb/early March actually. Now, it's solidly negative (blue) and growing at 10mb. It'll be interesting to see how the PV behaves in Oct and Nov. I am seeing similarities to the Autumn of '13 up near Greenland and N Canada. Next month will start giving us bigger clues.

[Niko]

I am seeing similarities of 13' as well. More and more leaves are changing colors now. This only happened back in 2013, same time. Now, the big question is, does it really mean anything in terms of this upcoming Winter??!! Who knows?! As far as I am concern, back in Autumn 13, that Winter that followed was a blockbuster.

[Niko]

After a brief break in Texas this week from rainfall, more heavy rains will return next week in the same areas that were hit hard from Harvey. Something that residents there do not want to look forward too.

[jaster220]

Last year, we had a +QBO or orange colors on the map above which did us no good for winter wx fans over the eastern 2/3 rd's. Since the Spring, you can see the flip which began in late Feb/early March actually. Now, it's solidly negative (blue) and growing at 10mb. It'll be interesting to see how the PV behaves in Oct and Nov. I am seeing similarities to the Autumn of '13 up near Greenland and N Canada. Next month will start giving us bigger clues.

 

What's the correlation of QBO (-) to the PV? Just curious in expanding my tech knowledge a bit.

[Niko]

Currently, kinda humid, with a hazy sun out there and temps hovering in the 70s. DP'S are in the 60s, so, yes, its a tad humid outside. In Meteorological terms, "Uncomfortable levels".

[Tom]

What's the correlation of QBO (-) to the PV? Just curious in expanding my tech knowledge a bit.

From what I've learned, a -QBO allows more blocking to develop. It may also support the idea of PV disruptions at 10mb/30mb early on. I've been seeing the CFS flash more runs of a vortex-like feature near Hudson Bay in Nov.

[Thunder98]

From what I've learned, a -QBO allows more blocking to develop. It may also support the idea of PV disruptions at 10mb/30mb early on. I've been seeing the CFS flash more runs of a vortex-like feature near Hudson Bay in Nov.

 

How about a neutral QBO?

[Thunder98]

What would the North American weather pattern would be like if we have a -PNA, -PDO, -AMO, -NAO, and a weak to moderate La Nina in Winter?

[jaster220]

What would the North American weather pattern would be like if we have a -PNA, -PDO, -AMO, -NAO, and a weak to moderate La Nina in Winter?

 

Is that combo even possible? I thought cold over the east almost always is the result of a +PNA

[Thunder98]

Is that combo even possible? I thought cold over the east almost always is the result of a +PNA

 

I don't know? That would be very fun if that type of pattern ever happens.

[Tom]

I don't know? That would be very fun if that type of pattern ever happens.

Are you in Cali or back in Wisconsin??? I remember you posting from CA and referring to N WI before. Just curious.

[OKwx2k4]

What would the North American weather pattern would be like if we have a -PNA, -PDO, -AMO, -NAO, and a weak to moderate La Nina in Winter?

That should be impossible to accomplish due to the fact that a -PNA would almost always force a +NAO state upstream.

[Thunder98]

Are you in Cali or back in Wisconsin??? I remember you posting from CA and referring to N WI before. Just curious.

 

I like to report the wx in WI because they have very interesting weather as well as the rest of the Midwest. I have never been to Wisconsin. I have visited Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona though. I'm in Cali which has very boring weather during the late spring and Summer time period. I would love to move to the upper Midwest someday. 

[OKwx2k4]

I'd wager that I had the best met summer in Oklahoma for a person who hates the heat. I love being in the foothills of the Ozarks because of things like this. There's a unique climate here sometimes. This map illustrates it pretty well. I don't look for this map to change much between now and tomorrow. Glad summer's over (well, almost).

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Both NAM models are suggesting parts of the U.P. to have Frosty mornings on Friday.  Possible Frost advisories???

 

 

[Tom]

I'd wager that I had the best met summer in Oklahoma for a person who hates the heat. I love being in the foothills of the Ozarks because of things like this. There's a unique climate here sometimes. This map illustrates it pretty well. I don't look for this map to change much between now and tomorrow. Glad summer's over (well, almost).

 

 

 

 

tmax.ge90-2.png

Love the Ozark region!  BTW, this is off subject, but I'm curious if you have personally seen Bigfoot or hear stories of sightings down there???  That is supposedly a hot spot in the central U.S.  I find this creature intriguing, if it even exists...maybe one day I'll get to see one.  

 

Edit: I have to also agree, ever since I've been back from AZ in mid July, this stretch of weather has been top notch.  On top of that, to cap off this summer, mother nature is going to deliver an epic weekend of weather for Labor Day weekend around here to close out summer.

[OKwx2k4]

Love the Ozark region! BTW, this is off subject, but I'm curious if you have personally seen Bigfoot or hear stories of sightings down there??? That is supposedly a hot spot in the central U.S. I find this creature intriguing, if it even exists...maybe one day I'll get to see one.

 

Edit: I have to also agree, ever since I've been back from AZ in mid July, this stretch of weather has been top notch. On top of that, to cap off this summer, mother nature is going to deliver an epic weekend of weather for Labor Day weekend around here to close out summer.

Sadly, no I haven't seen one. I remember a kid I went to school with has family members whose names are in a Bigfoot book written in the late 70s about this area and the mountainous areas to the southeast. These were supposed firsthand accounts of Bigfoot encounters and signs but I can't remember the name of the book. I think it's pretty funny stuff sometimes. I have never really paid much mind to it, but then again I'm used to hearing wild Cherokee folklore from this area as well. Lol.

[Niko]

What would the North American weather pattern would be like if we have a -PNA, -PDO, -AMO, -NAO, and a weak to moderate La Nina in Winter?

I think a -NAO , -PDO and a +PNA = a snowy Winter! Dont hold me on that though!!!

[jaster220]

I'd wager that I had the best met summer in Oklahoma for a person who hates the heat. I love being in the foothills of the Ozarks because of things like this. There's a unique climate here sometimes. This map illustrates it pretty well. I don't look for this map to change much between now and tomorrow. Glad summer's over (well, almost).

tmax.ge90-2.png

Dude! You and the large hairy bipedals live in the only reasonable part of OK. Uggh! @ 70 days of 90+

[jaster220]

I think a -NAO , -PDO and a +PNA = a snowy Winter! Dont hold me on that though!!!

HAS to be better than last winter!