August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

12z NAM 3km...Chicago Split in full effect...I have a feeling that the stronger storms which will likely develop near the KC region will rob the moisture for any development up this way, unless your near the track of the SLP...

 

 

Wow, both the NAM and HRRR give mby a 50/50 chance of a complete whiff! Nam has just one cell reflected and it'd be a tad NW of Marshall. HRRR is more multi-cellular but still not even a 1/2 in??? Peeps on Amwx been noting how dull it's been across SMI this warm season. Hoping this flips and we fall into the cross-hairs of a good storm track as the new recurring cycle sets up.

[james1976]

I was looking at radar. You can see the storm wrapping up. Reminds me of a fall/winter setup. Like how that HRRR looks. Lil 1.5" bullseye over me. See how it transpires later.

[VMB443]

Line of storms heading to us which should be nice - we could use the rain. Some thunder would be nice too.

[james1976]

Looks like a winter storm on radar right now with MN and SD in the defo zone.
​Tornado Watch for C MN!

[NEJeremy]

ended up with 1.7" total between 3 different rain "events", from yesterday morning to this morning.

My sister lives near Schuyler, NE and she said they had 7-8", and their school was cancelled as well. They're in the same area as Gabel above. She's been posting some pretty crazy pics of the flooding around her area.

[james1976]

Bigtime bust over here. Only 0.10" today. Skies are clear now. Another beautiful evening!

[Tom]

I was looking at radar. You can see the storm wrapping up. Reminds me of a fall/winter setup. Like how that HRRR looks. Lil 1.5" bullseye over me. See how it transpires later.

Hopefully we see some of these in next cold season as the new cyclical pattern sets up.  Very interesting to see already a couple of these systems this Summer.

 

Wonder where @St Paul is hiding???

[gabel23]

ended up with 1.7" total between 3 different rain "events", from yesterday morning to this morning.

My sister lives near Schuyler, NE and she said they had 7-8", and their school was cancelled as well. They're in the same area as Gabel above. She's been posting some pretty crazy pics of the flooding around her area.

It was the most rain I have ever had to pour out of my rain gauge, just incredible! I bet the golf course in Schuyler was under water today; I know Osceola and David City were both flooded. 

[Hawkeye]

Bigtime bust over here. Only 0.10" today. Skies are clear now. Another beautiful evening!

 

Ditto.  The expected widespread 1" rainfall across Iowa turned into a big dud.  I received nothing.  

[GDR]

Same here probably a sign to come but I hope not!

[Tom]

Nothing to spectacular over here. Just a weak line of storms around rush hour and a lone storm tracking to my west where I had a brief downpour and listening to rumbles of thunder. High Rez NAM did a good job for the most part.

[jaster220]

Looks like a winter storm on radar right now with MN and SD in the defo zone.

​Tornado Watch for C MN!

 

Same pattern since all last winter. A Met that works at DTW noted how this summer's quietness across SMI has mirrored last winter's "zone of dearth" wrt significant wx!

 

 

 

Hopefully we see some of these in next cold season as the new cyclical pattern sets up.  Very interesting to see already a couple of these systems this Summer.

 

Wonder where @St Paul is hiding???

 

^^ see my post above. While I agree that we want to see dynamic systems next winter, we need a major re-arrangement of the favored storm track for yours and mby's buddy

[Tom]

Waking up this morning to a cloudy, dreary, damp and humid day.  I don't think I've had a morning like this since I got back home from AZ.  Today marks the first day our sunrise starts at 6:00am!  Days are getting shorter by the day...sunset is at 7:47...

 

I believe ORD hit 88F yesterday and it may top that on Monday, the day of the Eclipse.  I wonder how much the temp will fall midday on Monday when the Eclipse happens with only 87% coverage.

[Tom]

Overnight model runs are showing the seasons most potent punch of cool air this Summer.  00z GFS suggesting widespread day time highs later next week not getting out of the 60's (might be hard to do) for a large part of the Lakes/Midwest region.  The 00z Euro is showing more blocking and actually has cooler temps much farther west reaching the central Plains.

 

It's amazing how much the EPS model has flipped from warm to cold in 3 days.  Check out the trend for next Thursday:

 

 

[westMJim]

Waking up this morning to a cloudy, dreary, damp and humid day.  I don't think I've had a morning like this since I got back home from AZ.  Today marks the first day our sunrise starts at 6:00am!  Days are getting shorter by the day...sunset is at 7:47...

 

I believe ORD hit 88F yesterday and it may top that on Monday, the day of the Eclipse.  I wonder how much the temp will fall midday on Monday when the Eclipse happens with only 87% coverage.

With the eclipse during mid day I also wonder just how much the temp will fall. Back in 2015 the English did some research during a partial eclipse in March of 2015 and where it was clear the temperatures fell around 5° C  

[westMJim]

For the eclipse next Monday, I will be about 20 miles SW of Bowling Green Kentucky (Franklin Kentucky) I will be about 500 feet (yes that is right 500 feet) into Kentucky on the Tennessee state line. Before I get there, I am interested if anyone had some good insight as to the cloud coverage expected for Monday in that area. While there I will be looking at the eclipse and will also see just how much the temperature drops and what affect it any on the winds. I will report on the changes I see.  

[Tom]

CPC's thinking for September highlighting an amplified N.A. pattern which the CFSv2 has been showing for some time now.  Warm on both coasts and a trough in the middle of the nation.  Looks active as well with some strong cold fronts likely next month.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

 

 

 

 

There is going to be a lot of exciting weather as we finish off this month and enter September.  Autumn is around the corner so enjoy the warmth and humidity for those who like it.  Personally, I've had about enough of the heat having been in AZ for so long.  Bring on the cooler & comfortable weather!

 

I've been showing the connections of the East Asian Theory and re-curving Typhoons this month.  Might this be natures way of giving us a hint to a developing pattern?  JMA weeklies showing an amplified W PAC to open the first 2 weeks of September.  This type of pattern to me is another hint to me that fits the idea of a cool, to cold opening 2 weeks of Sept.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201708.D1612_gl0.png

 

 

500mb forecast shows the trough/ridge alignment in the N PAC quite well which amplifies the N.A. pattern...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201708.D1612_gl0.png

 

SST's look ideal also...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201708.D1612_gls.png

[james1976]

Man....60s for highs would be amazing! Impressive to see the models turning cooler and cooler.

[Tom]

00z GEFS Day 11-15...talk about high latitude blocking, ay????  Looks to me like Summer is over by mid next week.  Farmers in the Ag belt may have to start thinking about harvesting their crop next month if the cooler risks show strength as we open Sept.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

This week has been cooler than what has been predicted. But also not as wet. Ive only received just over an inch total and most of that was Monday morning.

Catching the backside of the storm today. Mostly cloudy and breezy with a few light showers and only mid 70s.

[NEJeremy]

With the eclipse during mid day I also wonder just how much the temp will fall. Back in 2015 the English did some research during a partial eclipse in March of 2015 and where it was clear the temperatures fell around 5° C  

I've read since it's midday and if you are in totality, the temps can drop as much as 15-20 degrees.

[NEJeremy]

It was the most rain I have ever had to pour out of my rain gauge, just incredible! I bet the golf course in Schuyler was under water today; I know Osceola and David City were both flooded. 

My sister lives just out of town south of Schuyler and south of the Platte. They have a smallish, manmade lake behind their house and then a field beyond that. The field basically became part of the lake. She was taking pics and videos late morning/afternoon and said it was crazy to see how fast everything was still rising.

[NEJeremy]

For the eclipse next Monday, I will be about 20 miles SW of Bowling Green Kentucky (Franklin Kentucky) I will be about 500 feet (yes that is right 500 feet) into Kentucky on the Tennessee state line. Before I get there, I am interested if anyone had some good insight as to the cloud coverage expected for Monday in that area. While there I will be looking at the eclipse and will also see just how much the temperature drops and what affect it any on the winds. I will report on the changes I see.  

Are you good with figuring out models? Here is a website I have been using for cloud cover:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

You need to go to the GFS model and then the menu on the left and under where it says precipitation products, click on average cloud cover.

I've attached an image from today's 12Z runs.

 

There is also this website which is pretty new and gives EURO model data. You can zoom into the state and then under the parameters there are different things for clouds. You also can select the valid time which the closest is for 1p next Monday.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

[Tom]

12z GFS in lala land illustrating a major amplification of the N.A. pattern for the last day of August...just for kicks, bc I do believe we will see this type of pattern setting up next month...looks like a map from a Winter regime...

 

 

[Tom]

12z Euro with a strong push of cooler air later next week...

 

[Tom]

It's been an incredibly cool August to say the least...

 

 

 

Pockets of dryness and wetness...

 

[Minny_Weather]

It will definitely be a heck of a drive next week. Going from Houston, where heat advisories have been a daily norm, to Lincoln, where they are having one of the coolest Augusts on record.

[Tom]

Rise and Shine!  Waking up to a gorgeous Summer morning today with clear skies and more comfortable DP's.  I'm heading out to the Air & Water practice show today at North Ave beach to avoid the tourist trap over the weekend.  I may still go on the water on a friends boat, but not quite sure.

 

We continue to loose daylight on a quick pace.  Today's sunrise/sunset:  6:02am/7:45pm (loss of 4 min since yesterday)

[Tom]

06z GEFS targeting heavy rains early next week across the Midwest...depending on where storms fire early on Monday, debris clouds may disrupt the Eclipse near IA/IL/NE/MO/MN/WI.... 

 

[james1976]

Yeah i noticed 12z GFS run yesterday wasnt looking good for eclipse viewing around here.

[Niko]

Hey folks.....back from my vacation. Had a great time in Greece. Nice to be back again.

 

Now, time to start preparing for Autumn and start tracking what type of Winter will be arriving.

[westMJim]

Here is the latest zone forecast for the Bowling Green/Franklin area of Kentucky where I am going for the eclipse.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS UP TO
5 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
MONDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
 

I still think that for Monday the high temperatures are too high as I feel that with the time of the eclipse will have a cooling effect on the highs for that day. I have seen some reports of the temperatures doping as much as 20° F in the total area and up to 10° F in the areas with 75 to 85% coverage, we shall see. My take would be to call for sunny skies with afternoon dimming and cooler mid day readings with a recovery late in the day.

[Niko]

Flying to Chios Island

On a boat leaving Andros Island and going to Athens (In the far distance, those mountains are Andros Island)

Getting drunk with a friend in Andros island, Greece ( I'm on the left )

Flying over NYC ( notice the bridge in the far distance)

Beautiful sunset going to Athens from Andros Island

 

3pics happened to be tilted. Sorry about that.

[Tom]

So glad I went to the Air & Water show today rather than the weekend.  The beach wasn't packed at all.  We had a bit of an overcast through 11:00am, then partly sunny skies...thankfully, skies cleared up completely for the F-22 Raptor and Blue Angles so they can perform their high altitude aerials.  The thrill and chills you get from the roaring afterburners is something else.  Never gets old!

[Tom]

Could we make a run to tie August 2004???

 

[Tom]

Another interesting system next week Tue/Wed period which looks like a front-runner and spins up to a pretty big storm in S Canada.  Both GFS/Euro are showing a huge wound up storm tracking east of the GL's.  Call me crazy, but this pattern just hit fast-forward into Autumn!  You normally see systems like these in October!

 

 

 

[Tom]

CPC Week 3-4...fast forward to Winter please and show this...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

[OKwx2k4]

So glad I went to the Air & Water show today rather than the weekend. The beach wasn't packed at all. We had a bit of an overcast through 11:00am, then partly sunny skies...thankfully, skies cleared up completely for the F-22 Raptor and Blue Angles so they can perform their high altitude aerials. The thrill and chills you get from the roaring afterburners is something else. Never gets old!

Did they have that in the same place they had the AVP?

[OKwx2k4]

CPC Week 3-4...fast forward to Winter please and show this...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

Yes please!

[Tom]

Did they have that in the same place they had the AVP?

AVP??? They had it off of North Ave beach. I'll see if I can post some vids.