August 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

This is a 7-day forecast you would usually see in PHX during the month of April.  Wash, rinse, repeat...daily highs near 80F and sunshine.  

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, while we enjoy epic August weather conditions in the lower 48, folks up near the Brooks Range of Alaska will have their first Taste of Autumn!  By mid August (technically), they are expecting a lot of snow up there as the Polar Low pin wheels around in the Arctic.

 

Who's got that feeling brewing???

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Interesting article about the Euro vs GFS

 

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/European-Model-USA-GFS-American-Model-Weather-Hurricane-Season-439324613.html

[Minny_Weather]

Interesting article about the Euro vs GFS

 

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/European-Model-USA-GFS-American-Model-Weather-Hurricane-Season-439324613.html

The Euro has the potential to be hot garbage as well. Case in point, almost all of last Winter. GFS would trend towards the eventual correct solution, followed by the Euro two days later.

[westMJim]

We are now 8 days into August 2017 and all in all, this has become a rather pleasant summer we have not seen a lot of hot days most days have been sunny but it has been somewhat dry and the looks to continue. So far this summer Grand Rapids has had 5 days of 90° or better and 17 days of between 85° and 89° for a total of 22 very warm to hot days.  Over in Lansing they have seen more warm/hot days there (still not all that many) as they have had 8 days of 90° or better and 21 days of between 85° and 89° for a total of 29 very warm/hot days. As you can see I use 85° or warmer as the start point for a very warm day and 90 or better for a hot day some may use different numbers and that is fine.

[Tom]

Looking longer range, I have a sense that post Labor Day weekend we may be dealing with a legit Autumnal cool down.  Over the last 2+ Septembers, we have not seen much of a cool period during the month of Sept.  I'm seeing signs that there may be an extended period with strong early Autumn cold fronts.  For those who like the cool weather, next month is looking more likely that there may be some pretty good cool downs. 

[gabel23]

Meanwhile in our CWA, we have had the coldest two week start in August history! 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/gid/climate/records/2017/Record_coolestJul26_Aug8.png

[Tom]

Meanwhile in our CWA, we have had the coldest two week start in August history! 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/gid/climate/records/2017/Record_coolestJul26_Aug8.png

 

That's very impressive.  You guys out in the central Plains have had the lowest departures from normal than any of us in this sub forum this month so far.  Maybe its something to consider going forward towards Sept???  I bet this cool period caught a lot of people off guard and weren't expecting such departures.  I certainly didn't expect to see record lows and record cool starts to the start of Aug which is typically the warmest time of summer climo speaking.

[jaster220]

Looking longer range, I have a sense that post Labor Day weekend we may be dealing with a legit Autumnal cool down.  Over the last 2+ Septembers, we have not seen much of a cool period during the month of Sept.  I'm seeing signs that there may be an extended period with strong early Autumn cold fronts.  For those who like the cool weather, next month is looking more likely that there may be some pretty good cool downs. 

 

refer to Sept '89 for the text book definition of early strong cold fronts. I remember "chasing" massive wave conditions up on Saginaw Bay that month. Conditions that were more like early November. Ofc by Oct 19th, we had our first snowstorm, only since eclipsed by the 10/12/06 freak event. Halloween evening '89 was a windy 32F for kiddies - not nice. Back in the 70's it was almost always mild Indian Summer conditions for trick-or-treating from my recollection.

[Tom]

refer to Sept '89 for the text book definition of early strong cold fronts. I remember "chasing" massive wave conditions up on Saginaw Bay that month. Conditions that were more like early November. Ofc by Oct 19th, we had our first snowstorm, only since eclipsed by the 10/12/06 freak event. Halloween evening '89 was a windy 32F for kiddies - not nice. Back in the 70's it was almost always mild Indian Summer conditions for trick-or-treating from my recollection.

More and more CFSv2 runs are showing a pretty stout NE PAC ridge as we enter September.  I believe the CFSv2 has done the best job on it's weeklies/monthlies this past summer season.  Autumn is usually a pretty interesting season to see how the various models behave.  We shall see how this all transpires as we close out met Summer.

 

I will say, that a cooler pattern does fit the last Cycle #6 of this year's LRC to open up in September.  However, the NE PAC does NOT fit the pattern.  So we may be seeing the "old" pattern vs the "new" pattern setting up next month.  

[OKwx2k4]

I havent really gotten into the long range stuff lately but I will probably get started again soon. My early guess is probably that September will be a 2-faced month for most of us but thinking October may be pretty solidly cold relative to average.

 

Edit: BUT in order for this to be right, the last week of this month and the first full week of September will have to be above average over the central US.

[Minny_Weather]

I havent really gotten into the long range stuff lately but I will probably get started again soon. My early guess is probably that September will be a 2-faced month for most of us but thinking October may be pretty solidly cold relative to average.

 

Edit: BUT in order for this to be right, the last week of this month and the first full week of September will have to be above average over the central US.

GFS and EPS are making a last gasp of Summer look likely during that exact same time period too.

[Tom]

I havent really gotten into the long range stuff lately but I will probably get started again soon. My early guess is probably that September will be a 2-faced month for most of us but thinking October may be pretty solidly cold relative to average.

 

Edit: BUT in order for this to be right, the last week of this month and the first full week of September will have to be above average over the central US.

Around the 20th thru Labor Day weekend is when I think it gets above normal around here. It may be cut short if the fronts make an appearance sooner. Hope not, bc I'd love to have a great long weekend. By Sept, I'm sorta ready for Autumn to kick in. Throw in some delightful days in the 70's and sun along with cool to colder days and I'll be content.

[Minny_Weather]

Around the 20th thru Labor Day weekend is when I think it gets above normal around here. It may be cut short if the fronts make an appearance sooner. Hope not, bc I'd love to have a great long weekend. By Sept, I'm sorta ready for Autumn to kick in. Throw in some delightful days in the 70's and sun along with cool to colder days and I'll be content.

Going to the Husker home opener on September 2. Thankfully it's a night game so temperature doesn't matter. A chilly season opener would be uncommon though!

[Tom]

Things are getting a bit dry around here.  Hopefully the line of storms that are being predicted later this evening transpire...a nice little soaker would go a long way as I'm not expecting much rain till sometime later next week.

 

 

[Tom]

I have done some digging to find more maps showing the flip in the QBO at 10mb which began around April of this year.  Looks like the easterlies are growing stronger this month.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

 

30mb...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

 

 

00z Euro 10-day zonal wind forecast showing the strength of easterlies to continue...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

[james1976]

I have done some digging to find more maps showing the flip in the QBO at 10mb which began around April of this year. Looks like the easterlies are growing stronger this month.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

 

30mb...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

 

 

00z Euro 10-day zonal wind forecast showing the strength of easterlies to continue...

 

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_u_f240.gif

What would strong easterlies mean for the U.S.? I am definitely lacking knowledge on that!

[Tom]

What would strong easterlies mean for the U.S.? I am definitely lacking knowledge on that!

From what I have learned and read, it favors more potential for blocking and a colder winter for the CONUS. Maybe some others on here can speak more intelligently on this topic.

[Tom]

Most of IA needs some rains badly...

 

[Tom]

@ Okwx will need a canoe over the next 10 days...

 

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah. Lots of rain. Surprisingly the ground is still absorbing it pretty well.

[OKwx2k4]

From what I have learned and read, it favors more potential for blocking and a colder winter for the CONUS. Maybe some others on here can speak more intelligently on this topic.

The QBO is something I'm not really extremely knowledgeable about. I don't know many who are, honestly. My take has been that blocking should increase throughout the next 20 months. The QBO reversal has directly contributed to the breakdown of the nearly 2 year pattern that we were stuck in. This began to change noticeably around April so I do not believe it is merely coincidence.

[OKwx2k4]

Starting to look like groundhog day around here. Every day is the same. Lol.

 

[james1976]

Rather fall-like this morning. Nice refreshing 50s and a cloud deck just rolled in. Looks like mostly cloudy with a N breeze and 70s today. Good day to finish putting stain on my deck.

[james1976]

Summer may return late next week.

DMX:

Tuesday AM and Beyond...

Models remain unchanged in terms of synoptic features. Broad

anticyclonic flow begins to set up over the Deep South, shutting

of the Gulf for us in Iowa. Aloft, we should be in westerlyish

flow, and at the sfc, Iowa should be in SE flow as the

aforementioned sfc high remains locked in over the Ohio Valley

region. After Wednesday, broad thermal ridging builds over the

intermountain west. With the thermal ridge gradually pushing

eastward, temperatures should warm up each day... with Thursday

into the weekend looking notably warmer as the ridge may come

crashing down over Iowa. For the past 4 nights, the GFS has had

850mb temperatures of +20C to +25C making it into Iowa by Friday.

If this pans out, low to mid 90s are looking likely across the

state and with sfc dwpts slated to near the 70s, heat index values

may near and exceed 100 degrees Thursday through possibly

Saturday.

 

Models try to push a few shortwaves through the zonal flow on

Wednesday through Thursday. Given the source of these waves is well

into the Pacific, confidence is very low in any timing/location of

rainfall. The 00z Fri GFS is very bullish on a sfc low coming off

the Rockies and making it into Nebraska by Friday PM. low-level

frontogenetical forcing/instability is off the charts, so if this

pans out (which is a big "if") severe weather potential will be

high for Friday PM.

[Tom]

From TWC regarding AK's snow potential this weekend:

 

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/first-significant-snowfall-united-states-alaska-2017

[Tom]

Things are lining up for us to see summer's last grasp for the northern part of the sub forum???  Folks farther south are likely to remain wet/cool for the remainder of this month.   I'm all for one more push of warm summery weather, just not to hot/humid.  I've been keeping an eye on the weather pattern around here for the 18th-20th (Air & Water Show) and some days may be wet/cloudy unfortunately.  We shall see how next weekend evolves.

 

Meanwhile, I think the central Plains have a good chance to bake one more time this summer where the Ridge has been prone to pop this summer.  Moreover, folks in IA look wetter in the 5-10 day range!  Hope you guys score some beneficial rains as the warmer pattern fights back.

 

[Tom]

Both CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies are in my camp and advertising a potential cool period post Labor Day...http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

 

Euro Weeklies Week 4...Frosty mornings early next month???  My hunch is, the NE PAC ridge will be a player going forward.  I'm seeing much warmer waters continuing to build off western N.A.  -EPO???

 

 

 

Current SST anomaly...notable warming in the NE PAC...

 

 

 

 

 

Previous 7-day change in SST anomalies...

 

 

[james1976]

Im all in for a cooler Sept. Thats the beginning of met Fall so im ready.

[Tom]

Im all in for a cooler Sept. Thats the beginning of met Fall so im ready.

Yup, we are due for a cooler beginning.  The last couple of Septembers started off very warm I remember around here.  The really cool September I remember was in 2014.

[Tom]

It has been a cold start to August across the central/southern Plains...but, will it warm up just as much Week 1-2???

 

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is still not backing down on a significant warm-up beginning late next week. Euro still showing only a slight warm-up to normal next weekend.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2017081106/conus/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_31.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2017081106/conus/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_40.png

 

One last heat wave is not out of the question, and it is a painful reminder that we are still in Summer.

[Tom]

GFS is still not backing down on a significant warm-up beginning late next week. Euro still showing only a slight warm-up to normal next weekend.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2017081106/conus/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_31.png

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2017081106/conus/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_40.png

 

One last heat wave is not out of the question, and it is a painful reminder that we are still in Summer.

GFS with the warm bias???  It's got a full on torch!

[OKwx2k4]

GFS with the warm bias??? It's got a full on torch!

I'm actually leaning towards the GFS solution at this point. Been a pretty reliable pattern here and it fits the ups and downs we have seen since April pretty well also.

 

I think the CFS is rushing the temperature change slightly by around a week but stuff can still change a bit between now and then.

 

Overall, August of 1976 seems to be a good match for this year and my thoughts for now.

 

Thinking no matter what happens, due to the overall precipitation pattern, I should have below average temperatures here in the eastern part of my state throughout most of the next month at least.

[jaster220]

I'm actually leaning towards the GFS solution at this point. Been a pretty reliable pattern here and it fits the ups and downs we have seen since April pretty well also.

 

I think the CFS is rushing the temperature change slightly by around a week but stuff can still change a bit between now and then.

 

Overall, August of 1976 seems to be a good match for this year and my thoughts for now.

 

Thinking no matter what happens, due to the overall precipitation pattern, I should have below average temperatures here in the eastern part of my state throughout most of the next month at least.

 

There's an even better year for early cold fronts. Prolly the most epic early cold in modern times. But, it didn't lead to a snowy winter, unless you lived in a true LES, it was pretty dry moisture-wise for the Lwr Lakes region. Although, what fell did stick around unlike these last 2 seasons. Just so hard to put it all together like we did in 78/79 and 13/14

[Minny_Weather]

August of 1976

Please no. I'd rather have more than .7" of snow before the new year.

[BrianJK]

Starting to look like groundhog day around here. Every day is the same. Lol.

 

Screenshot_20170811-060857.png

 

Same here

 

[Tom]

Quite the differences for the start of next weekend between the EPS vs GEFS...

 

12z EPS handling the Omega Block near Hudson Bay better???

 

 

 

 

 

vs....

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

[Tom]

While watching the TV Show "Life Belown Zero", I can't but help keep those thoughts of snow out of my mind. One day I'll have to take a trip up to Alaska during the Winter. #BucketList

[OKwx2k4]

Same here

 

elmhurst.jpg

Lol. That must be awful.