Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Tom]

I remember 95-96. It was a beautiful winter in NYC. Lots of snow. All type of records were broken that Winter.

 

Do you have that map that shows the GL's region painted in "Much Above Snowfall"?

I just saw the slide in the presentation and it painted the entire state of MI (including Chicago/MKE & GRB) with Much Above Normal snowfall, including the UP.

 

A strip of Above Normal from the TX Pan Handle up towards the southern GL's, including the Midwest.  The northern Plains were above normal as well. 

[Tom]

Now we have the JMA agreeing on a moderate strength La Nina, peaking in January...very similar to the CFSv2...my best guess at this stage has been -1.2C.

 

 

 

For comparison, here is the current CFSv2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd3.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

[james1976]

How strong of a Nina did we have in 13-14?

[Tom]

How strong of a Nina did we have in 13-14?

Check the link Jaster posted on here that shows the ONI values for your reference. If I remember, it was a La Nada.

[Niko]

I just saw the slide in the presentation and it painted the entire state of MI (including Chicago/MKE & GRB) with Much Above Normal snowfall, including the UP.

 

A strip of Above Normal from the TX Pan Handle up towards the southern GL's, including the Midwest.  The northern Plains were above normal as well. 

Awesome....

[Tom]

Both JMA/CFSv2 are agreeing on a Week 2 cool down as we approach the beginning of the evolution of a brand new LRC.

 

500mb for Week 2...showing the riding building out west and up NW NAMER....

 

 

Week's 3 & 4, the model is suggesting blocking across northern Canada and near the Arctic.  Not a big signal this far out which is to be expected.  CFSv2 also showing blocking across Canada during this period so we'll see how it plays out.

 

However, one thing I do notice from both models in the Week 3 & 4 range is the PAC jet becomes wildly active.  Likely sparked by the Eurasian/Siberian cold that will be brewing in that part of the world and coming off the continent.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201709.D2012_gl1.png

 

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 seeing a stronger signal for the pocket of warm waters stretching from Hawaii towards the British of Columbia coastline to maintain itself next month.  This is a great set up to deflect storms north and buckle the jet down stream.  I'm enthusiastic to see this trend in the CFSv2.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20170921.201710.gif

 

JMA SST....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201709.D2012_gls.png

[Tom]

Caution: For informational purposes only

 

The only time I have seen this before was back in 2013-14 and if the GEFS are right, instead of the PV being parked over the Pole or spinning near Siberia/Russia, it is forecasting rising heights all across Eurasia at 10mb and forcing the PV on this side of the Pole.  Just in time for the new LRC to develop.  

 

First days of October...

 

 

 

 

The new LRC pattern will be taking shape at the end of this period...I must say, this would be a very favorable pattern for early season cold across N.A.  Last year, and the year prior, we saw this feature spinning on the other side of the Pole near Eurasia and parts of Scandinavia.  Doesn't look like it this year.

 

[Tom]

The CPC has updated their seasonal forecast and it's showing a pretty stout signal for a western ridge and trough in the east.  Very dry pattern though which is odd to see.

[Tom]

I like what I see for the heart of Winter when looking at the maps below...when do they ever have BN (blue colors) on these maps???    FWIW, it has trended more with Equal Chances across the central states/GL's region from last months run.

 

 

[Tom]

The pattern seems to continue into early Spring, if not, throughout the majority of Spring....

 

 

[Niko]

Caution: For informational purposes only

 

The only time I have seen this before was back in 2013-14 and if the GEFS are right, instead of the PV being parked over the Pole or spinning near Siberia/Russia, it is forecasting rising heights all across Eurasia at 10mb and forcing the PV on this side of the Pole.  Just in time for the new LRC to develop.  

 

First days of October...

 

 

 

 

The new LRC pattern will be taking shape at the end of this period...I must say, this would be a very favorable pattern for early season cold across N.A.  Last year, and the year prior, we saw this feature spinning on the other side of the Pole near Eurasia and parts of Scandinavia.  Doesn't look like it this year.

 

I am sensing a 13-14 Winter developing!

[Thunder98]

I am sensing a 13-14 Winter developing!

 

The PAC NW looks to part of the action too.

[Niko]

The PAC NW looks to part of the action too.

Hope so!

 

FWIW: PNW storms are an important factor to my region. Ofc, all depends on the track they take toward the GL's region (that determines whether is a mix, all snow, or cold rain).

[jaster220]

 

 

I like what I see for the heart of Winter when looking at the maps below...when do they ever have BN (blue colors) on these maps???      FWIW, it has trended more with Equal Chances across the central states/GL's region from last months run.

 

Uhmm, nevva??    (shorter term they do though)

 

Anyways, temps aside, I'd take those projections and run all. day. long. 

 

Don't need the bitter stuff 2013-14 and the following year delivered tbh. Just consistently cold enough to not entirely melt-off every snowfall we get. A cooler version of 07-08 would be ideal. 

 

Reminder of 2013-14 (chilly) map:

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Uhmm, nevva??    (shorter term they do though)

 

Anyways, temps aside, I'd take those projections and run all. day. long. 

 

Don't need the bitter stuff 2013-14 and the following year delivered tbh. Just consistently cold enough to not entirely melt-off every snowfall we get. A cooler version of 07-08 would be ideal. 

 

Reminder of 2013-14 (chilly) map:

 

20131129 NOAA 6-10d temp.gif

:o Look @ that fricken map!!!!!!

 

The good old days back in that Winter!

[Tom]

Uhmm, nevva??    (shorter term they do though)

 

Anyways, temps aside, I'd take those projections and run all. day. long. 

 

Don't need the bitter stuff 2013-14 and the following year delivered tbh. Just consistently cold enough to not entirely melt-off every snowfall we get. A cooler version of 07-08 would be ideal. 

 

Reminder of 2013-14 (chilly) map:

 

20131129 NOAA 6-10d temp.gif

 

I don't recall every seeing a long range seasonal forecast show blue's on this map.  Have you?

[jaster220]

Lake Effect snow in Buffalo, NY 2014

 

 

Jaster is probably dreaming of something like this.

 

 Actually, something more like THIS!

 

 

[Tom]

 Actually, something more like THIS!

 

blizpic2.jpg

Hey, that would make for some good insulation!   

[Niko]

 Actually, something more like THIS!

 

blizpic2.jpg

Holy Mackro!!!!

 

Hey Jaster...is that you up there???!!!

[jaster220]

Holy Mackro!!!!

 

Hey Jaster...is that you up there???!!!

 

Nope, but I was riding over the tops of small trees on my friend's snowmobile when that photo was new - great memories! 

 

Man, the beginning few seconds of this vid reminds me of all these Irma and Maria footage lately. (not sure where/when this was tbh)

 

Iowa!! Wild-wild winds!

 

https://youtu.be/Q9COsI2cgKk

[Thunder98]

West Trough and Ridging East of the Rockies

 

[indianajohn]

Hey everyone Love the early winter talk.......as much as everyone is trying to figure out the upcoming winter season I know one thing we can all agree on.... Chicago and Most of NWI will not go through JAN and Feb with out having a trace of snow like we did last year!!!! that has to be a once in a lifetime occurrence right???         

[Tom]

If the CFSv2 is right, the growing Scandinavian Block may continue through Week 3 as an unprecedented stretch of blocking in this region will be a player to the Northern Hemispheric pattern into October, likely caused by low sea ice in this region. 

 

 

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20170921.z500.gif

[Niko]

Nope, but I was riding over the tops of small trees on my friend's snowmobile when that photo was new - great memories! 

 

Man, the beginning few seconds of this vid reminds me of all these Irma and Maria footage lately. (not sure where/when this was tbh)

 

Iowa!! Wild-wild winds!

 

https://youtu.be/Q9COsI2cgKk

Nasty looking blizzard! Wouldn't want to be caught driving in that, that's for sure.

[Niko]

Hey everyone Love the early winter talk.......as much as everyone is trying to figure out the upcoming winter season I know one thing we can all agree on.... Chicago and Most of NWI will not go through JAN and Feb with out having a trace of snow like we did last year!!!! that has to be a once in a lifetime occurrence right???         

Hey buddy, how ya doin?!

 

Tbh, I am hoping for a 13-14. Lets see how ma nature cooperates with that. Ofc, getting over 60" is fine with me.

[jaster220]

If the CFSv2 is right, the growing Scandinavian Block may continue through Week 3 as an unprecedented stretch of blocking in this region will be a player to the Northern Hemispheric pattern into October, likely caused by low sea ice in this region. 

 

 

 

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20170921.z500.gif

 

 

If the CFSv2 is right

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the 1-Sept CFSv2 have SON as above normal over-all, even for the UP? Thought that's what I saw. The other shoe didn't drop until DJF. if true, we're going to be dominated by ridging more than troughs during at least Oct if not Nov. 

[Tom]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the 1-Sept CFSv2 have SON as above normal over-all, even for the UP? Thought that's what I saw. The other shoe didn't drop until DJF. if true, we're going to be dominated by ridging more than troughs during at least Oct if not Nov. 

Not sure about the Sept 1st SON seasonal...I checked the last 5 runs and it has the Scandinavian Ridge present through Week 3.  We'll see but the -QBO may be doing the dirty work.

[Tom]

CFSv2 starting to show increasing odds of an amped up N PAC jet coming off of East Asia.  The idea of early Siberian cold is getting picked up by the modeling.  Let's see what the model is showing by end of this month.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170922.201710.gif

[Niko]

Explanation on Clouds in Michigan:

 

https://youtu.be/mLn4-WfNsKk?list=PLirHgK0UPaMXGrqqe8K-1R4YjCnZyygxZ

[james1976]

This was just posted from TWC.

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/temperature-outlook-october-november-december-2017

[indianajohn]

Hey buddy, how ya doin?!

 

Tbh, I am hoping for a 13-14. Lets see how ma nature cooperates with that. Ofc, getting over 60" is fine with me.

Hey Niko,

 

Hope all is well!!! Was able to visit Greece for a couple of weeks this summer which was awesome been 10 years since I visited... it wasnt long enought of a trip LOL!!! How was your summer? Hope you are right about winter this year we are over due for a good one. 

[OKwx2k4]

SW ridge ideas from both CFS and TWC looking to agree with my original ideas. Seeing hints of a NW to SE "arctic blast" pattern as we advance through the autumn and into the cold season. Going to stick with that idea for now.

[Niko]

Hey Niko,

 

Hope all is well!!! Was able to visit Greece for a couple of weeks this summer which was awesome been 10 years since I visited... it wasnt long enought of a trip LOL!!! How was your summer? Hope you are right about winter this year we are over due for a good one. 

Wow...hope you had a great time. I went to Greece also this Summer for a couple of weeks. Had a fantastic time as well. Got to see my huge family there ( swimming all day and eating delicious food ) I know what ya mean though, its never long enough there in the Summer. You definitely need at least more than a month.

 

As far as Winter goes, lets hope we get a good one this year. A lot of the members on here (including myself  ) are thinking that a good Winter might be in the works, so lets see how that goes.

[Tom]

Per LNKwx's remark on the latest Euro Weeklies, here is a map of the CONUS temp anomalies...

 

 

[Niko]

As of now, October isn't looking too shabby in terms of chilly air. Bone dry and seasonably coolish, if not a tad above normal.

[Tom]

For those who live in the Lake Snowbelt's of Michigan/Indiana, here's a comparison of water temps this year vs last year...

 

The current heat wave has spike surface water temps much above normal, but on average, this warm season as a whole has been cooler compared to last year esp when you look at the month of August.

 

 

vs last year...

 

[jaster220]

How strong of a Nina did we have in 13-14?

Tom was correct. DJF averaged -0.5 so La Nada, which almost always delivers for SMI

[jaster220]

Not sure about the Sept 1st SON seasonal...I checked the last 5 runs and it has the Scandinavian Ridge present through Week 3. We'll see but the -QBO may be doing the dirty work.

My bad! Was thinking of the JAMSTEC:

 

 

[westMJim]

Tom was correct. DJF averaged -0.5 so La Nada, which almost always delivers for SMI

For a quick reference I look at this chart for how strong a El Nino/La Nida were

 

 http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm