Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[jaster220]

Wasn't living in MI those years, but I can tell u that those years were very mild Winters in NYC. 2010 rocked though.

 

Those are autumn years, thus 2010 was the winter of 2010-11, which started awesome for the plains, shifted to the EC, then came back west with the GHD-1 storm. Detroit, in general most of SMI, could call it a good winter. Even with some disappointment with GHD, I still had 17" OTG at my place. Any time there's more than a foot OTG in Marshall, that has to be considered a major win. 

[Tom]

U r correct, com padre!

 

20161103 Vail CO.PNG

20161031_NHemi_Snowcover_Oct31_2011.gif

 

Last year we were stuck with this hot mess and a bunch were calling for a "Nov flip" that never came for the east. 

 

20161108 500mb for 4-Nov.PNG

 

We need to see this or something like it setting up shop before those of us in the GL's can get excited.

 

WxBell Dec 2013 Namer pattern.png

 

Let's hope it's a better start than last autumn, and that it indeed spreads our way eventually.

Oh man, you just made my morning!  I miss that road trip through CO and spending that brief stop in Vail and then spending the night in Durango watching the Cub's win the World Series.  I'll never forget that trip!  This cold season, I plan on making it out west and plan a ski trip in either Vail or Aspen.  On my bucket list this winter!

 

Meantime, I'm encouraged to see the PV on this side of the Pole instead of it being stuck in what seemed like all season long in Eurasia last year.  Take a look at this 10mb pattern on the 00z GEFS when comparing it to the EPS 500mb map you showed above.  Clearly, its got a blocking pattern over Siberia/Russia which grows farther heading deeper into the early part of October.  On the other hand, the PV is displaced on our side of the Pole and into our continent.

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Those are autumn years, thus 2010 was the winter of 2010-11, which started awesome for the plains, shifted to the EC, then came back west with the GHD-1 storm. Detroit, in general most of SMI, could call it a good winter. Even with some disappointment with GHD, I still had 17" OTG at my place. Any time there's more than a foot OTG in Marshall, that has to be considered a major win. 

Hopefully this warm Autumn we are having will trigger cold air by November. Idk, but I am hearing a big warm-up next week. Lets see if that verifies. Tbh, as long its not 90s( no more record highs) then, I am ok with it.

 

Btw: anything over a foot of snow OTG is considered a big bonus, indeed.

[Niko]

Oh man, you just made my morning!  I miss that road trip through CO and spending that brief stop in Vail and then spending the night in Durango watching the Cub's win the World Series.  I'll never forget that trip!  This cold season, I plan on making it out west and plan a ski trip in either Vail or Aspen.  On my bucket list this winter!

 

Meantime, I'm encouraged to see the PV on this side of the Pole instead of it being stuck in what seemed like all season long in Eurasia last year.  Take a look at this 10mb pattern on the 00z GEFS when comparing it to the EPS 500mb map you showed above.  Clearly, its got a blocking pattern over Siberia/Russia which grows farther heading deeper into the early part of October.  On the other hand, the PV is displaced on our side of the Pole and into our continent.

 

 

 

 

That is a positive sign. Now, hoping it does good for most on this forum this Winter.

[Tom]

Update on the QBO and we still have a solidly negative state ongoing....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

[Minny_Weather]

*Picture of GFS showing massive trough and PV in 2013*

That's similar to what the EPS weeklies are showing to end October and enter November. Deep troughs. 

[james1976]

That's similar to what the EPS weeklies are showing to end October and enter November. Deep troughs.

Would deep troughs shove the storm track south? 13-14 winter was a clipper parade and i did really well!

[Minny_Weather]

Would deep troughs shove the storm track south? 13-14 winter was a clipper parade and i did really well!

If these deep troughs were to play out for the whole season, that would make for a really good Winter for OK/MO/KS and headed up towards the GLs. Kind of like the early February storm in 2014.

 

I think we end up seeing a similar storm track to 2013-14 (please no). Obviously, we need cold air to make that snow, and as many storms as then, but I think that is the overall storm track I am seeing.

[jaster220]

If these deep troughs were to play out for the whole season, that would make for a really good Winter for OK/MO/KS and headed up towards the GLs. Kind of like the early February storm in 2014.

 

I think we end up seeing a similar storm track to 2013-14 (please no). Obviously, we need cold air to make that snow, and as many storms as then, but I think that is the overall storm track I am seeing.

 

Good news for you is that there's no such thing as two exactly same seasons. Track(s) may be similar, results can/will vary. Just read the fine print under the asterisk on your investment statement.."prior performance is not a guarantee of future results" 

[clintbeed1993]

If these deep troughs were to play out for the whole season, that would make for a really good Winter for OK/MO/KS and headed up towards the GLs. Kind of like the early February storm in 2014.

 

I think we end up seeing a similar storm track to 2013-14 (please no). Obviously, we need cold air to make that snow, and as many storms as then, but I think that is the overall storm track I am seeing.

 

It's sad that the winter that nearly everyone on this board raves about was a complete dud for us.  Almost like someone forgot to invite us to the party..

[Jaycee]

It's sad that the winter that nearly everyone on this board raves about was a complete dud for us.  Almost like someone forgot to invite us to the party..

Remember how many people hated us that year?? Lol they'll never understand. We had blowing dust advisories, and they had record breaking snowfall. Was tough to be a fan of snow in here as a Nebraskan, seeing everyone from Iowa eastward getting hammered regularly.

[Minny_Weather]

Remember how many people hated us that year?? Lol they'll never understand. We had blowing dust advisories, and they had record breaking snowfall. Was tough to be a fan of snow in here as a Nebraskan, seeing everyone from Iowa eastward getting hammered regularly.

It sucks when most of Kansas gets more snow than us.

[Tom]

BAMWx is using the AAM correlation as an analog and here is the 500mb pattern...

 

[Tom]

UKMET seeing a moderate La Nina...

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

If these deep troughs were to play out for the whole season, that would make for a really good Winter for OK/MO/KS and headed up towards the GLs. Kind of like the early February storm in 2014.

 

I think we end up seeing a similar storm track to 2013-14 (please no). Obviously, we need cold air to make that snow, and as many storms as then, but I think that is the overall storm track I am seeing.

Has my vote right there. I'm pretty much seeing the same things you are as far as the future pattern progression into the fall and winter. Kinda makes me nervous to say it because it means I get a good winter for the 1st time in a few years.

[Tom]

Is this a sign of things to come out west???  Arizona Snowbowl fired up their snow guns last weekend for the first time this season and never before this early in the season.  In fact, they were the first in the nation to make their own snow!  Pretty wild.

 

https://snowbrains.com/arizona-snowbowl-first-ski-area-make-snow-usa-201718/

[Niko]

My local weatherman last night announced the 3 month (O,N,D) Autumn forecast coming from NOAA and he showed that NOAA is predicting above average temps. He also mentioned that those above normal temps could be 1 degree, 2 degree or 0.5 above average or etc.  Now, why am I not surprised. NOAA usually says above average temps or has us in "Equal Chance". They are so predictable.

[jaster220]

BAMWx is using the AAM correlation as an analog and here is the 500mb pattern...

 

 

That looks about perfect for our entire sub! Maybe we'll finally get that true CO Low season? Certainly would also lend credence to those seeing a '95-96 analog. My original post (fear) about the heart of winter track being just south of me looks legit with that map. I don't think 95-96 was good for SMI, though it rocked in NWMI where I was living back then. 

[jaster220]

My local weatherman last night announced the 3 month (O,N,D) Autumn forecast coming from NOAA and he showed that NOAA is predicting above average temps. He also mentioned that those above normal temps could be 1 degree, 2 degree or 0.5 above average or etc.  Now, why am I not surprised. NOAA usually says above average temps or has us in "Equal Chance". They are so predictable.

 

That may be accurate. Of those 3 months, only Dec is looking normal or below. Colder look is for DJF, and on into the spring months. But, yeah, NOAA maps are totally lame if not virtually warm-bias maps. 

[jaster220]

   

 

Wait! Considering your posts, am I allowed to get a laugh or two outta this??

 

 

 

 

(I wasn't posting in here back then, and didn't realize you guys got shafted that season. Y'all deserve to get pounded!)

[james1976]

That looks about perfect for our entire sub! Maybe we'll finally get that true CO Low season? Certainly would also lend credence to those seeing a '95-96 analog. My original post (fear) about the heart of winter track being just south of me looks legit with that map. I don't think 95-96 was good for SMI, though it rocked in NWMI where I was living back then.

Was literally thinking the same. CO lows!

[Minny_Weather]

   

 

Wait! Considering your posts, am I allowed to get a laugh or two outta this??

 

20170928 Nebraskawx sig.PNG

 

 

(I wasn't posting in here back then, and didn't realize you guys got shafted that season. Y'all deserve to get pounded!)

THAT is hilarious 

 

2014-15 and 2015-16 actually weren't horrible for us. I think we finished above average snowfall both seasons, even though 2015-16 was stupidly warm and ended early. And 2014-2015 didn't give us many legit storms, but we got enough clippers including a 6 incher to make the season interesting. Even had a snow depth >10" at one point that Winter which has been mostly unheard of since the 2011-2012 season here.

[Niko]

That may be accurate. Of those 3 months, only Dec is looking normal or below. Colder look is for DJF, and on into the spring months. But, yeah, NOAA maps are totally lame if not virtually warm-bias maps. 

Once, I would like to see NOAA'S long range forecast in a (blue color) below normal temps, just once man. Son of a ......

[jaster220]

THAT is hilarious 

 

2014-15 and 2015-16 actually weren't horrible for us. I think we finished above average snowfall both seasons, even though 2015-16 was stupidly warm and ended early. And 2014-2015 didn't give us many legit storms, but we got enough clippers including a 6 incher to make the season interesting. Even had a snow depth >10" at one point that Winter which has been mostly unheard of since the 2011-2012 season here.

 

  Funny cuz 11-12 pretty much blew chunks for mby. With such a massive sub-forum, gonna take something special to spread the wealth for an entire season for all concerned. 

[Minny_Weather]

Funny cuz 11-12 pretty much blew chunks for mby. With such a massive sub-forum, gonna take something special to spread the wealth for an entire season for all concerned.

2011-12 was overall mild here, and it would be as bad as you guys if Lincoln didn't get a bomb which dropped a foot here. The snow cover managed to keep temps cold for about week.

[jaster220]

Haha we definitely did we weren't going to get anything, then boom! Was so amazing, snow didn't melt until March.

 

Total heartburn was felt the past 8 years for us though, so I think we deserve a break

 

 

Haha thanks m8. I'm going to laugh when I see it actually end up being accurate.

 

LOL, when I first glimpsed this map I saw that brown over NE and thought they were backing your call..

 

Phew! then I realized that neutral color zone was at least normal snowfall. And, not only is this their prelim call subject to change(s), they reminded peeps several times that their maps are for MET WINTER DJF only! and not a first flake to last flake scenario. A large storm on either side of those core months wouldn't be reflected here and would skew it positively.   

 

 

[jaster220]

Couple more BAMaps that I liked..

 

Jan precip and their red outline of region most likely to score a big storm (yep, an imby post-couldn't resist)

 

 

 

And this one shows their expected contrasts to last winter. Loved the wording they plugged in there..

 

 

[james1976]

Couple more BAMaps that I liked..

 

Jan precip and their red outline of region most likely to score a big storm (yep, an imby post-couldn't resist)

 

20170928 BAMwx Jan 2018 precip map.PNG

 

And this one shows their expected contrasts to last winter. Loved the wording they plugged in there..

 

20170928 BAMwx DJF 2018 precip chgs y-t-y.PNG

#LaNina

[jaster220]

Noticed the ranges on some of these cities. Particularly Grand Rapids with a MET winter range up to 95" - gotta like that 

 

 

[Niko]

Noticed the ranges on some of these cities. Particularly Grand Rapids with a MET winter range up to 95" - gotta like that 

 

20170928 BAMwx DJF Selected city snowfall guess.PNG

The average snowfall for NY is definitely wrong. I am sure incorrect info given on other cities as well.

[Minny_Weather]

Noticed the ranges on some of these cities. Particularly Grand Rapids with a MET winter range up to 95" - gotta like that 

 

20170928 BAMwx DJF Selected city snowfall guess.PNG

They didn't include Lincoln or Omaha? I want my safe space.

[westMJim]

Noticed the ranges on some of these cities. Particularly Grand Rapids with a MET winter range up to 95" - gotta like that 

 

20170928 BAMwx DJF Selected city snowfall guess.PNG

 

The average snowfall for NY is definitely wrong. I am sure incorrect info given on other cities as well.

I don't know about the other locations but for the range in Grand Rapids the most snow fall for DJF at GRR was 105.6" in the winter of 2013/14 With 34.7" in December, 41.9" in January and 29.0" in February. The 94.9" happened in the winter of 2007/08.  The least amount of snow at Grand Rapids (the old airport was the location of the official readings at the time) was 13.4" in 1943/44..The most snow for each month at Grand Rapids October 8.4" 1967, November 31.0" 2014, December 59.2" 2000, January 46.8" 1999, February 41.6" 2008, March 36.0" 1965, April 15.6" 1961 and May 5.5" 1923" as for the ave for DJF The latest 30 year ave for GRR is 59" and 76.4" for the season total.

[Niko]

@ WestMJim,

 

I am curious to know what type of weather phenomenon do you usually get in the Winter more frequently...... LES or storm systems?

[Niko]

Couple more BAMaps that I liked..

 

Jan precip and their red outline of region most likely to score a big storm (yep, an imby post-couldn't resist)

 

20170928 BAMwx Jan 2018 precip map.PNG

 

And this one shows their expected contrasts to last winter. Loved the wording they plugged in there..

 

20170928 BAMwx DJF 2018 precip chgs y-t-y.PNG

[OKwx2k4]

Can't disagree with BamWx's forecast. Pretty much been my thoughts since late Augtember.

[Tom]

CFSv2 trends for DJF...

 

[Niko]

CFSv2 trends for DJF...

 

Wow...look at all of that cold air just waiting to plummet our temps.

[OKwx2k4]

Wow...look at all of that cold air just waiting to plummet our temps.

That's the kind of map I've been looking for.

[Tom]

That's the kind of map I've been looking for.

Those purple colors in Canada scream...shall I say...Polar Vortex....the era of '13-'14 mixed in with a strong signal for a SW Flow, of which, was NOT present in that winter season.  As much as everyone from IA and points east loved that winter, it did not have a favorable SW Flow and was predominately NW Flow with sheared systems.  Due in part by the monster NE PAC ridge (aka "The Blob) which is not being forecast this season.  If you can marry '07-'08 with '13-'14, I think there will be many many happy campers on here.

[Niko]

That's the kind of map I've been looking for.

Its a nice looking map....."lets get the party started"