Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[jaster220]

For a quick reference I look at this chart for how strong a El Nino/La Nida were

 

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Haha! Yes that's the same one I linked earlier in the thread. Nice suggestion!

[Niko]

After a brief cooldown next week, the extended shows a warm-up once again.

[jaster220]

After a brief cooldown next week, the extended shows a warm-up once again.

We have 3 months of Autumn to get thru via the calendar, no surprise really.

[Niko]

We have 3 months of Autumn to get thru via the calendar, no surprise really.

Yup...and October does usually provide some gorgeous weather along with warm temps, so not surprise, indeed.

[Thunder98]

My bad! Was thinking of the JAMSTEC:

 

temp2.glob.SON2017.1sep2017.gif

 

JAMSTEC is so warm biased! They keep predicting that the whole world is on fire.

[NEJeremy]

JAMSTEC is so warm biased! They keep predicting that the whole world is on fire.

It pretty much is.

[Tom]

As we approach the Grand Solar Minimum, the earth is awakening....tropical volcano's have more impact than volcano's in the northern latitudes...Bali's volcano may blow any day from what I'm reading...

 

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/eruption-imminent-on-mount-agung-as-people-race-for-shelter/8980100?pfmredir=sm

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/eruption-imminent-on-mount-agung-as-people-race-for-shelter/8980100

[Tom]

It's getting close to that time of year where these maps will be more frequent...fast start to Winter out in the Rockies and northern Plains are being suggested by the Euro Weeklies...

 

 

[Tom]

Is this a sign of the times???  Weak Polar Vortex resulting in colder winters...could we see this happening for our winter ahead???

 

http://mashable.com/2017/09/22/polar-vortex-study-climate-change-arctic-warming-colder-winters/?utm_content=buffer238c3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#IuQ8XtxpVkOK

[Niko]

It's getting close to that time of year where these maps will be more frequent...fast start to Winter out in the Rockies and northern Plains are being suggested by the Euro Weeklies...

Its been awhile since I saw a map like this.

[jaster220]

As we approach the Grand Solar Minimum, the earth is awakening....tropical volcano's have more impact than volcano's in the northern latitudes...Bali's volcano may blow any day from what I'm reading...

 

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/eruption-imminent-on-mount-agung-as-people-race-for-shelter/8980100?pfmredir=sm

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/eruption-imminent-on-mount-agung-as-people-race-for-shelter/8980100

 

Yikes! And my post wrt any major volcano eruption possibly making the next few winters cold was, quite literally, made on a whim. I had no idea about this impending Bali eruption. If it's anything close to Pinatubo in '91, look out. 

[jaster220]

Its been awhile since I saw a map like this.     One must learn to temper his enthusiasm !!

 

...after all, it's just a map. We'll see.. 

 

Certainly, ghosts of '98, '07, & 2010 warm autumns are haunting us right now. When those warm autumns finally ended and the seasons flipped into winter mode, they all brought something historic, so we at least have that to hang our hopes on.  

[Jaycee]

Please God, give us a winter like 2009-2010 again. That would make my life complete. I lived in Chicago as a kid and I remember 00-01' winter being wicked, but it was NOTHING compared to 2009-2010 here in Nebraska. Truly a remarkable year.

[Jaycee]

Had a little free time, so I went ahead and made my own Winter Forecast because why not, it'd feel cool if I was actually right given my lack of knowledge. I'm going to get grilled as to why I'm wrong I'm sure, but this is just my best guess. Just looking over everything briefly, ocean temps, snow cover, etc., I think this is going to be a year where Texas Panhandle Systems absolutely dominate the storms we see. Anywhere from the Texas Panhandle, through Kansas City, Des Moines, East and Northeastward, will be getting blasted regularly. Can't wait (except I can given Nebraska wont get shyt) for you guys to get hammered this year!

 

 

 

[Niko]

Had a little free time, so I went ahead and made my own Winter Forecast because why not, it'd feel cool if I was actually right given my lack of knowledge. I'm going to get grilled as to why I'm wrong I'm sure, but this is just my best guess. Just looking over everything briefly, ocean temps, snow cover, etc., I think this is going to be a year where Texas Panhandle Systems absolutely dominate the storms we see. Anywhere from the Texas Panhandle, through Kansas City, Des Moines, East and Northeastward, will be getting blasted regularly. Can't wait (except I can given Nebraska wont get shyt) for you guys to get hammered this year!

Where do I sign?!

[jaster220]

Had a little free time, so I went ahead and made my own Winter Forecast because why not, it'd feel cool if I was actually right given my lack of knowledge. I'm going to get grilled as to why I'm wrong I'm sure, but this is just my best guess. Just looking over everything briefly, ocean temps, snow cover, etc., I think this is going to be a year where Texas Panhandle Systems absolutely dominate the storms we see. Anywhere from the Texas Panhandle, through Kansas City, Des Moines, East and Northeastward, will be getting blasted regularly. Can't wait (except I can given Nebraska wont get shyt) for you guys to get hammered this year!

 

 

Dude, love your map and your humorous anecdotes included   (that part's worth it, even if you bust) which I think you will on Nebraska. At least 1 Colorado Low will save yby another shut-out season. 

[jaster220]

In case anyone's interested in watching BAMwx's preliminary winter outlook webinar, they sent me a link:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/viewRecording/7328666497090039298/4166179685511399426/jaster220@hotmail.com

 

Their delivery as a team was not a Hollywood polished production, but I felt it was worth my time. 

[jaster220]

Please God, give us a winter like 2009-2010 again. That would make my life complete. I lived in Chicago as a kid and I remember 00-01' winter being wicked, but it was NOTHING compared to 2009-2010 here in Nebraska. Truly a remarkable year.

 

Yeah, stole our Christmas blizzard y'all did!   That one was looking so promising up until it took that hard left turn! Total heartburn was felt on that one, trust me..

[james1976]

[Jaycee]

Yeah, stole our Christmas blizzard y'all did!   That one was looking so promising up until it took that hard left turn! Total heartburn was felt on that one, trust me..

Haha we definitely did we weren't going to get anything, then boom! Was so amazing, snow didn't melt until March.

 

Total heartburn was felt the past 8 years for us though, so I think we deserve a break

 

Haha your headlines are funny

 

Haha thanks m8. I'm going to laugh when I see it actually end up being accurate.

[Tom]

Interesting map showing sites with their first freeze thus far this season...

 

[Tom]

Skier's are still able to tackle the Sierra in September...had a feeling that spots in this region would still have snow OTG throughout the summer...

 

http://www.sfgate.com/snow-ski/article/summer-skiing-california-ski-snow-conditions-12213225.php?cmpid=twitter-desktop&utm_content=buffere8469&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#photo-14144634

[Niko]

Haha we definitely did we weren't going to get anything, then boom! Was so amazing, snow didn't melt until March.

 

Total heartburn was felt the past 8 years for us though, so I think we deserve a break

 

 

Haha thanks m8. I'm going to laugh when I see it actually end up being accurate.

I have a strong feeling you are going to be correct. Hope you score big this Winter. You guys deserve it more.

[Tom]

Maps are courtesy from BAMWx:

 

Latest Euro Weeklies reflect similarities to October 2007...check out that Scandinavian Ridge and Eurasia trough!  Of note, the ridge isn't as big on the Euro Weeklies as it was in Oct 2007.  Some room there for cooler weather and not a full blown torch.

 

 

 

[westMJim]

In case anyone's interested in watching BAMwx's preliminary winter outlook webinar, they sent me a link:

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/recording/viewRecording/7328666497090039298/4166179685511399426/jaster220@hotmail.com

 

Their delivery as a team was not a Hollywood polished production, but I felt it was worth my time. 

I just watched their winter guess. was interesting.  

[Tom]

Who's dreaming of pure powder???  The mountains of Alaska have been pounded by early season snows and have already a 12 feet base!

 

https://www.sott.net/article/362516-Early-snowfall-leaves-12-foot-snow-base-on-mountains-in-Alaska-VIDEO

 

https://snowbrains.com/winter-silverton-deep-powder-september/

[Niko]

Who's dreaming of pure powder???  The mountains of Alaska have been pounded by early season snows and have already a 12 feet base!

 

https://www.sott.net/article/362516-Early-snowfall-leaves-12-foot-snow-base-on-mountains-in-Alaska-VIDEO

 

https://snowbrains.com/winter-silverton-deep-powder-september/

Now, that looks refreshing. It cooled me off just by looking at it.

[Minny_Weather]

53* and windy at my place. First time this season I have walked to the mailbox (other side of my complex) and had my hands get cold. Earlier in the month when it got to the 40s there was no wind. Yay Fall!

[jaster220]

Who's dreaming of pure powder???  The mountains of Alaska have been pounded by early season snows and have already a 12 feet base!

 

https://www.sott.net/article/362516-Early-snowfall-leaves-12-foot-snow-base-on-mountains-in-Alaska-VIDEO

 

https://snowbrains.com/winter-silverton-deep-powder-september/

 

Better hope that ends, AK and MI nevva share great winters!  Still autumn though, so I would take a wild guess that heading into a Nina, gives the opposite results as Nino, thus the autumn rocks for the western mountains and such, only to go quiet towards the winter solstice as the pattern shifts the action to the eastern CONUS. That's my theory anyways, and I'm sticking to it! 

[Niko]

53* and windy at my place. First time this season I have walked to the mailbox (other side of my complex) and had my hands get cold. Earlier in the month when it got to the 40s there was no wind. Yay Fall!

We are next in line. Cant wait for that chilly air to finally arrive!!!!

[jaster220]

We are next in line. Cant wait for that chilly air to finally arrive!!!!

 

I remember freezing on a sunny day 15 days ago! The Roller Coaster punishment shall continue, appears to be the fate of our era. 

[Niko]

I remember freezing on a sunny day 15 days ago! The Roller Coaster punishment shall continue, appears to be the fate of our era. 

I remember back in August where overnight lows were in the 40's and I mean readings between 40-45 with a few upper 30s far way north and west from my area (North of I-69). September came in very chilly with my first 30s of the season occurring. Then, after that, BAM....the heat took over up until this date.

[Tom]

A quick note from a met regarding the latest POAMA (Australian model) guidance:

 

 

 

Snowfall anomalies are above normal in Upper Midwest & Northwest + spots in the Plains / slightly below normal along immediate East Coast.

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies showing a lot of snow building up in Canada by November 10th...

 

Edit: Great start to the ski season out west...

[james1976]

Euro Weeklies showing a lot of snow building up in Canada by November 10th...

 

Edit: Great start to the ski season out west...

Has the 'cutter' look goin on.

[gabel23]

Hoping to see temp anomalies like this for the upcoming winter; just center it over a little more to the west.....

[jaster220]

Has the 'cutter' look goin on.

Looks like last year, what cutters? For SD again?

[Tom]

Has the 'cutter' look goin on.

 

Looks like last year, what cutters? For SD again?

I'll tell you one thing for certain, there was no where near that amount of snow down into the central Rockies by early November last year.  I drove through CO and there was barely 1" on the peaks the day I got into the front range on Nov 2nd.  So yes, I think what James is saying, is that this map has that look of storms tacking through the central Rockies and cutting NE (climo makes sense).

[Niko]

...after all, it's just a map. We'll see.. 

 

Certainly, ghosts of '98, '07, & 2010 warm autumns are haunting us right now. When those warm autumns finally ended and the seasons flipped into winter mode, they all brought something historic, so we at least have that to hang our hopes on.  

Wasn't living in MI those years, but I can tell u that those years were very mild Winters in NYC. 2010 rocked though.

[jaster220]

I'll tell you one thing for certain, there was no where near that amount of snow down into the central Rockies by early November last year.  I drove through CO and there was barely 1" on the peaks the day I got into the front range on Nov 2nd.  So yes, I think what James is saying, is that this map has that look of storms tacking through the central Rockies and cutting NE (climo makes sense).

 

U r correct, com padre!

 

 

 

This showed the deficit in the Rockies starkly:

 

 

 

 

Last year we were stuck with this hot mess and a bunch were calling for a "Nov flip" that never came for the east. 

 

 

 

 

We need to see this or something like it setting up shop before those of us in the GL's can get excited.

 

 

 

 

 

Let's hope it's a better start than last autumn, and that it indeed spreads our way eventually.

 

(Edit: Had wrong snowcover map above)