Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

From what I have been reading and hearing, I believe almost everyone on this forum this Winter stands the chance of seeing a better Winter this year than last year, in terms of more snow and cold.

[Tom]

Joe D's Pioneer model suggests this for DJF...

 

 

[jaster220]

Joe D's Pioneer model suggests this for DJF...

 

Hmm, so the usual SE ridge via the Nina is trumped by the strong -QBO I presume? 

 

EDIT: BAMwx's thoughts seemed to retain it..

 

 

[Tom]

Hmm, so the usual SE ridge via the Nina is trumped by the strong -QBO I presume?

Could be a plausible scenario. I sure hope there is more blocking this year bc if not, it will turn out very similar to last year but cooler. If the severe winter scenario were to happen, we would def need the blocking.

[jaster220]

Joe D's Pioneer model suggests this for DJF...

 

I thought this map looked familiar..here's what was posted before based on a weak Nina and -QBO. His just takes it to another level of brutal. LOL @ Niko's place - the big freeze! Remember, that's an avg all winter (-3ºF in spots), peak cold waves would be perhaps MUCH COLDER. 

 

 

 

Could be a plausible scenario. I sure hope there is more blocking this year bc if not, it will turn out very similar to last year but cooler. If the severe winter scenario were to happen, we would def need the blocking.

 

Yep, always said 1st priority has to be "cold", then moisture, then storm track(s), then lastly for a truly historic winter, it usually comes down to how active it is. 

[Niko]

Hmm, so the usual SE ridge via the Nina is trumped by the strong -QBO I presume? 

 

EDIT: BAMwx's thoughts seemed to retain it..

 

20170928 BAMwx DJF 2018 precip chgs y-t-y.PNG

Perfect! That is what we need.

[Tom]

Anyone here know if Jim Flower's commented on this upcoming winter season?  I always enjoyed listening to his video's on FB.

[gabel23]

Anyone here know if Jim Flower's commented on this upcoming winter season?  I always enjoyed listening to his video's on FB.

He retired after last year, will no longer be doing his videos. Pretty disappointing!! 

[Jaycee]

He retired after last year, will no longer be doing his videos. Pretty disappointing!! 

Not as disappointing as his winter forecast though amirite?

[Tom]

CanSIPS suggesting a stronger ridge to the S/SE for Winter...

 

 

 

[clintbeed1993]

Not as disappointing as his winter forecast though amirite?

 

Haha.  It's a d**n shame though, I really did enjoy his videos.  He busted BAD and I guarantee that's why he deleted his page.

[jaster220]

Haha.  It's a d**n shame though, I really did enjoy his videos.  He busted BAD and I guarantee that's why he deleted his page.

If you mean last winter, who didn't?? I wouldn't be to hard on the guy.

[Jaycee]

Haha.  It's a d**n shame though, I really did enjoy his videos.  He busted BAD and I guarantee that's why he deleted his page.

I agree 100%. His winter forecast was atrocious last year, and he definitely caught flack for it. I feel bad for the guy, but that's part of the game of being a meteorologist.

[Tom]

I like what I saw today on the Euro Weeklies as it lines up with what is happening in the N PAC.  After a back and forth pattern through the 24th, the trough in the NE PAC retrogrades west towards the Aleutians and Bearing Sea through the middle of November as a winter like pattern sets in.  Lot's of ridging in the west and across NW NAMER to close out October and into November.  This fits the Bearing Sea Rule which shifts towards a +PNA pattern to close out the month of October.

 

Overall, the pattern is wet/active from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV...cold pattern really takes over by middle of Nov heading into Thanksgiving week where the Lakes become active and ensembles are seeing a wintry pattern around the 17th through end of run (20th).

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies Week 2-4 showing the ridging out west and troughy look out east...FWIW, this model has trended cooler overall for November over the last couple runs.  I find it warm biased due to its bias out west with holding to much troughs and knowing that the waters are warming along NW NAMER coastline.  Need to pay attention to modeling behavior Week 2 and beyond as we continue the path deeper into the cold season as their bias is to keep troughs hugging the coastline.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFSv2 is on the right track as far as what is happening in the NE PAC...

 

 

 

 

7-day SST change...

 

[jaster220]

In the past 2 days, another round of tree turning has commenced - some fantastic colors breaking now. Also, looking at this morning's Lwr 48 hazards map, I couldn't help but see a tiny hint of a microcosm reflection of our winter ahead?? 

 

Cold dropping in from Canada, moist systems coming up through the central plains, and the systems cranking in the GL's (gale watches). 

 

Liking it!

[jaster220]

So, there seems to be 2 camps in the analog dept. One group is reaching for 56-57, 81-82, & 13-14 based on a more La Nada ENSO state this winter. The other group is reaching for at least a weak if not mod Nina. For mby personally, both would (could) be winning combo's

 

As for the west end of the sub, there's undoubtedly a difference. Not sure which is best for NE peeps tbh? 

 

This is from a Met in OH who is leaning weak (east based) Nina with a -QBO in his list of analogs, again limited to DJF:

 

 

 

Ofc, this makes me salivate, especially the moisture anom's 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

So, there seems to be 2 camps in the analog dept. One group is reaching for 56-57, 81-82, & 13-14 based on a more La Nada ENSO state this winter. The other group is reaching for at least a weak if not mod Nina. For mby personally, both would (could) be winning combo's

 

As for the west end of the sub, there's undoubtedly a difference. Not sure which is best for NE peeps tbh?

 

This is from a Met in OH who is leaning weak (east based) Nina with a -QBO in his list of analogs, again limited to DJF:

 

20171006 OHWeather winter analog composites.PNG

 

Ofc, this makes me salivate, especially the moisture anom's

This is exactly what I think and like to see. I'd say that is as close to what I think as anything I've seen, actually.

[Minny_Weather]

So, there seems to be 2 camps in the analog dept. One group is reaching for 56-57, 81-82, & 13-14 based on a more La Nada ENSO state this winter. The other group is reaching for at least a weak if not mod Nina. For mby personally, both would (could) be winning combo's

 

As for the west end of the sub, there's undoubtedly a difference. Not sure which is best for NE peeps tbh?

 

This is from a Met in OH who is leaning weak (east based) Nina with a -QBO in his list of analogs, again limited to DJF:

 

20171006 OHWeather winter analog composites.PNG

 

Ofc, this makes me salivate, especially the moisture anom's

56-57 was ever so slightly above average here thanks to a 10" storm late in the season. Right now, 1956-57 seems like the most likely year of the 3 you listed. 2013-14 and 1981-82 both featured cold Octobers here, which we are not seeing right now. We are seeing an ever so slightly above average October ATM, similar to 1956-57. However, 1956-57 was VERY dry here, only recording .15" of precip the whole month. Considering the fact that on the 6th of the month here we're ALREADY an inch above normal for the month here, yeah that's not happening. How much precipitation we are getting now is really encouraging to me. Last year, the bulk of our precipitation in our very warm October came with 2 severe thunderstorms early on. This rain right now is coming on legitimate low pressure systems. If this keeps up, even with the above average temp anomalies, we will have no problem achieving above normal snowfall.

[GDR]

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_406,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png

[GDR]

[OKwx2k4]

[GDR]

This could be helpfull https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_cb8c728a51a64745a77191e5b3bccd7a~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_368,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_cb8c728a51a64745a77191e5b3bccd7a~mv2.png

[jaster220]

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_406,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_3ae5450d457f40a38c38109956034877~mv2.png

  

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_d0468c3ef41c407582ddd3c59da2ce58~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_508,h_406,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/0d40d5_d0468c3ef41c407582ddd3c59da2ce58~mv2.png. This would be perfect

Spot on!

[jaster220]

That's exactly what is going to happen in my opinion. The progression we are in right now leads to that map in DJF.

I found it interesting that he's got both 89-90 and 00-01. I know you were keen on 00-01, and I have very fond memories of the bliz in NMI on day two of deer camp 11/16/89, which also delivered enough snow to SEMI to run my snowmobile a few days later when I got back home. What I didn't remember is the 71 degs on the 13th! And it was 82 a few days before the freak snow on 10/19/89! That autumn was a memorable one for myself.

[Niko]

By November, we should be getting the final Winter Outlooks coming in.

[jaster220]

By November, we should be getting the final Winter Outlooks coming in.

Yeah, a lot of the video makers state that. Hopefully, we'll have a better feel on whether La Nina or La Nada is most likely. Something half-way between May actually be best for you and I

[Niko]

Yeah, a lot of the video makers state that. Hopefully, we'll have a better feel on whether La Nina or La Nada is most likely. Something half-way between May actually be best for you and I

Yup, I am more confident this year than last year about a more active, colder Winter.

[westMJim]

Yeah, a lot of the video makers state that. Hopefully, we'll have a better feel on whether La Nina or La Nada is most likely. Something half-way between May actually be best for you and I

Here is a list of weak La Nina years since 1950 and total seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids

1.       1954/55   78.3”

2.       1964/65   101.4”

3.       1971/72   79.8”

4.       1974/75    68.9”

5.       1983/84    71.4”

6.       1984/85     69.6”

7.       2000/01     98.1”

8.       2005/06     69.2”

9.       2008/09     104.4”

10.   2016/17     60.1”

The long term mean for Grand Rapids is 75.7” the range (since 1950) is between 35.9: and 116.0” and the average of the weak La Nina years is 80.1” with a range between 60.1 and 104.4”

And here is a list of neutral years (as best as I can tell)

1.       1959/60   90.7”

2.       1960/61   87.9”

3.       1962/63   89.7”

4.       1966/67   91.8”

5.       1967/68   55.1”

6.       1978/79   96.0”

7.       1980/81   51.5”

8.       1981/82   74.5”

9.       1985/86   79.1”

10.   1989/90   89.8”

11.   1990/91   60.6”

12.   1992/93   65.3”

13.   1993/94   76.6”

14.   1996/95   79.7”

15.   2001/02   105.2”

16.   2003/04   74.0”

17.   2012/13   66.0”

18.   2013/14   116.0”

In the neutral years the range has been between 60.6” and 116.0” and the average is 72.3” So bottom line is that based on a weak La Nina or neutral West Michigan has a good chance of seeing snow fall in the average to above average with a range of 51.5” to 116.0” 

[possum]

can anyone give a regional run down of the 88-89 winter.  its the year it stayed bitter cold here

[jaster220]

Here is a list of weak La Nina years since 1950 and total seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids

1.       1954/55   78.3”

2.       1964/65   101.4”

3.       1971/72   79.8”

4.       1974/75    68.9”

5.       1983/84    71.4”

6.       1984/85     69.6”

7.       2000/01     98.1”

8.       2005/06     69.2”

9.       2008/09     104.4”

10.   2016/17     60.1”

The long term mean for Grand Rapids is 75.7” the range (since 1950) is between 35.9: and 116.0” and the average of the weak La Nina years is 80.1” with a range between 60.1 and 104.4”

And here is a list of neutral years (as best as I can tell)

1.       1959/60   90.7”

2.       1960/61   87.9”

3.       1962/63   89.7”

4.       1966/67   91.8”

5.       1967/68   55.1”

6.       1978/79   96.0”

7.       1980/81   51.5”

8.       1981/82   74.5”

9.       1985/86   79.1”

10.   1989/90   89.8”

11.   1990/91   60.6”

12.   1992/93   65.3”

13.   1993/94   76.6”

14.   1996/95   79.7”

15.   2001/02   105.2”

16.   2003/04   74.0”

17.   2012/13   66.0”

18.   2013/14   116.0”

In the neutral years the range has been between 60.6” and 116.0” and the average is 72.3” So bottom line is that based on a weak La Nina or neutral West Michigan has a good chance of seeing snow fall in the average to above average with a range of 51.5” to 116.0”

 

 

Nice work!! At a glance I'm thinking the edge goes to neutral winters as I suspected tbh. Now, while there's not a lot of real duds in there, GR & Marshall share many good years but not all. 2001-02 is a classic example where the SW flow LES gave that area a great season and did little down here. Last winter featured a lot of WNW LES events which is ideal here, and a major reason I avoided a sub-par winter. Take away those two wks in Dec and I had a 25" season, half my avg.

[jaster220]

Here is a list of weak La Nina years since 1950 and total seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids

1.       1954/55   78.3”

2.       1964/65   101.4”

3.       1971/72   79.8”

4.       1974/75    68.9”

5.       1983/84    71.4”

6.       1984/85     69.6”

7.       2000/01     98.1”

8.       2005/06     69.2”

9.       2008/09     104.4”

10.   2016/17     60.1”

The long term mean for Grand Rapids is 75.7” the range (since 1950) is between 35.9: and 116.0” and the average of the weak La Nina years is 80.1” with a range between 60.1 and 104.4”

And here is a list of neutral years (as best as I can tell)

1.       1959/60   90.7”

2.       1960/61   87.9”

3.       1962/63   89.7”

4.       1966/67   91.8”

5.       1967/68   55.1”

6.       1978/79   96.0”

7.       1980/81   51.5”

8.       1981/82   74.5”

9.       1985/86   79.1”

10.   1989/90   89.8”

11.   1990/91   60.6”

12.   1992/93   65.3”

13.   1993/94   76.6”

14.   1996/95   79.7”

15.   2001/02   105.2”

16.   2003/04   74.0”

17.   2012/13   66.0”

18.   2013/14   116.0”

In the neutral years the range has been between 60.6” and 116.0” and the average is 72.3” So bottom line is that based on a weak La Nina or neutral West Michigan has a good chance of seeing snow fall in the average to above average with a range of 51.5” to 116.0”

 

 

Nice work!! At a glance I'm thinking the edge goes to neutral winters as I suspected tbh. Now, while there's not a lot of real duds in there, GR & Marshall share many good years but not all. 2001-02 is a classic example where the SW flow LES gave that area a great season and did little down here. Last winter featured a lot of WNW LES events which is ideal here, and a major reason I avoided a sub-par winter. Take away those two wks in Dec and I had a 25" season, half my avg.

[Niko]

October will end up with above normal temps in SEMI.

[jaster220]

October will end up with above normal temps in SEMI.

That's ok, per BAMwx, it follows the AAM perfectly. Tbh, not sure if that's a model or some tele-connection?

[Tom]

That's ok, per BAMwx, it follows the AAM perfectly. Tbh, not sure if that's a model or some tele-connection?

Atmospheric Angular Momentum...

[Niko]

That's ok, per BAMwx, it follows the AAM perfectly. Tbh, not sure if that's a model or some tele-connection?

That's fine with me. I usually like warm Octobers.

[Thunder98]

Will the Midwest see a very cold and snowy winter?

[Tom]

Here's an update on the expansion of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover as Russia/Siberia is onto a fast start in the snow advance dept...

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

 

 

Northern Hemisphere...

 

 

 

 

Eurasia...

 

 

 

 

 

00z GFS showing a lot of snow expanding westward in the coming 10 days...

 

[jaster220]

Atmospheric Angular Momentum...

Thx for breaking down the acronym though I'm still not clear what that is/means exactly, but I'll check it out when I get a moment.

[OKwx2k4]

can anyone give a regional run down of the 88-89 winter. its the year it stayed bitter cold here

I can remember 88-89 from an Okie standpoint. It was a really harsh winter here. I remember it distinctively being the first time in my life saw the news talking about subzero temps in Oklahoma City while reporting during a ground blizzard. A large, heavy snowfall ended the winter in March with over 18-24 inches in 24 hours of wet heavy snow over eastern Oklahoma. One of the most varied and extreme winters I've known about.

 

I'm going to assume that it was pretty insane further north and west of here.