Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Tom]

AO and NAO are going to begin to decline in waves over the next 10 days. This, all while the PNA steadily rises, indicate to me that hard Autumn is coming for most of us. I'd say that early season snows are a very real possibility for replacing this excessive heat we have now when we get into late month and November. I have a feeling the excessive snowfall will be much further south than that map above.

In all honesty, I'm beginning to think that a Nov '13 style is on the table with more organized systems unlike that year.  From what I'm seeing in the Strat, Teleconnections, wave lengths, SST's, SAI Index and the developing LRC...the clues are there for a rather interesting start to winter this year.  If it goes towards the extreme, we will need the blocking, if not, it will be transient shots like we saw in '13-'14.  Very interesting set of circumstances evolving at this stage of the game.

 

In other news, a small volcano erupted yesterday in Japan...

 

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003996529

[jaster220]

AO and NAO are going to begin to decline in waves over the next 10 days. This, all while the PNA steadily rises, indicate to me that hard Autumn is coming for most of us. I'd say that early season snows are a very real possibility for replacing this excessive heat we have now when we get into late month and November. I have a feeling the excessive snowfall will be much further south than that map above.

 

Bold #1: 

 

Like  4 yrs ago?:

 

 

 

 

Bold #2: 

 

Yeah, was gonna say "move that south a bit pls!"   Looks too much like an avg Dec across SMI..

[jaster220]

The latest POAMA December snowfall anomalies...NE peeps up towards the Lakes may be looking at a white Christmas for this year instead of brown grass....but of course, one storm can change that in a heart beat depending on track.  I'm feeling a little better that this year's holidays will be better than last year's.

 

 

Uhmm, half a state south and (pardon the pun) BAM!! 

 

Christmas Day was winter white, 26th winter ended & spring started, by New Years I was playing tennis, by Valentines Day I was sun bathing. 

 

I think there's a shot to beat that, lol 

[Tom]

Uhmm, half a state south and (pardon the pun) BAM!! 

 

Christmas Day was winter white, 26th winter ended & spring started, by New Years I was playing tennis, by Valentines Day I was sun bathing.

 

I think there's a shot to beat that, lol 

Last year's Christmas was soggy, wet, damp and dreary...by the 27th, the snow was gone.  In a perfect world, a snowy Christmas Eve/Day is ideal, but it has to have at least a 4-6" snow pack with cold temps and the smell of firewood burning throughout the neighborhood.  

 

I was sun bathing at the park with my nephews in Feb!  Who woulda thought...???

[Minny_Weather]

There was a tornado reported to the SW of here on Christmas. We had severe weather with hail and damaging winds here. I repeat, it was Christmas.

[jaster220]

Last year's Christmas was soggy, wet, damp and dreary...by the 27th, the snow was gone.  In a perfect world, a snowy Christmas Eve/Day is ideal, but it has to have at least a 4-6" snow pack with cold temps and the smell of firewood burning throughout the neighborhood.  

 

I was sun bathing at the park with my nephews in Feb!  Who woulda thought...???

 

Perfectly describes Christmas Eve '04 where I was in SEMI. Was close to zero even. That, and '92 are the coldest Christmases I can remember. The records say that '83 was even worse, but strangely I don't remember it, only remember the extreme mildness of '82 

[Minny_Weather]

Perfectly describes Christmas Eve '04 where I was in SEMI. Was close to zero even. That, and '92 are the coldest Christmases I can remember. The records say that '83 was even worse, but strangely I don't remember it, only remember the extreme mildness of '82 

We had a white Christmas in Houston in '04. First year we lived there too.

[Tom]

Euro weeklies are on tap today, what do guys expect to see???

[possum]

@ Okwx & Possum, if the troughs next month dive far enough south to bring you guys some colder weather, you can feel more comfortable that there will be a decent chance of a good winter season in the deep south.  I think Possum is in a good spot this season to see a good winter with a reality check from mother nature.    It's going to be fun tracking cutters all season long.  Some may be nail biters for you down there!

 

 

we usually get a few that get really close, but more times than not, the warm air gets here first and we end up with temps ranging from 28-33 for low/high and all we get is rain.    it would be a return to my childhood to have a good snow on the ground around christmas.  LOVE snow, but after the last several years (13-14 an exception) i will be happy with just below average temps for an extended period. 

[jaster220]

Euro weeklies are on tap today, what do guys expect to see???

Nvr got em b4, are they wks2-4, and that means next WK and following two?

[Tom]

Nvr got em b4, are they wks2-4, and that means next WK and following two?

They go out 46 days from the current day and WxBell maps allow you to see very 24 hour increment.

 

And, they just came out...let me digest them!

[Tom]

Overall, the progression of the pattern continues as the end of the month arctic attack is being well advertised.  In fact, it has ticked up on the "hint" of the first flakes of snow for a lot of our members in the north, esp if you consider the Euro Control.  Throughout Nov there are many shots of cold, and they aren't just 2-day periods, looks like the cold hits and holds, with a few breaks where it relaxes (which is normal).

 

Here is the mean snow map through Nov 27th...FWIW, the model keeps expanding the below normal anomalies in the central/southern Plains each run going forward.

 

 

[jaster220]

"looks like the cold hits and holds, with a few breaks where it relaxes"

 

Very 2013-like right there.

[Niko]

"looks like the cold hits and holds, with a few breaks where it relaxes"

 

Very 2013-like right there.

I remember that year November being cold and snowy especially from the end of the month.

[possum]

according to that, would that mean that if the west coast ridging develops that all the cold will be forced into the mid region (between rockies and apps)  of the country? 

[james1976]

Thats a 2013 repeat. My God.....getting excited!

[james1976]

[Tom]

we usually get a few that get really close, but more times than not, the warm air gets here first and we end up with temps ranging from 28-33 for low/high and all we get is rain.    it would be a return to my childhood to have a good snow on the ground around christmas.  LOVE snow, but after the last several years (13-14 an exception) i will be happy with just below average temps for an extended period. 

The way the troughs are being advertised on the Euro Weeklies I can see storms riding up the Apps in Nov.  The main pocket of cold centered in the Plains/Midwest and with the waters still warm along the EC, I can see many cutters/Apps runners.  Later on in the Winter I could see the EC get in on the action, esp if a -NAO develops.  Early on, I think its game on.

[hlcater]

(Don't get baited, don't get baited, don't get baited!) I've become very skeptical over anything beyond 180hrs over the past year. Perhaps thats a good thing. While there are hints of a cooler than normal winter, especially with north and westward extent, along with a storm track invof the Ohio Valley. However, I can't feel comfortable with going anything more than that, such as magnitude or duration. The accuracy in climo forecasts just isnt there yet, and there's variability and a lack of a strong consensus. It also must be noted that so far, we've torched all fall, I have no idea what this means for this winter, however it was briefly discussed on AmWx and the sample size was very small, and skewed slightly to warmer than average based on an above average November, should that occur. From what limited info I've seen and heard, analogs are a mixed bag, lowering my confidence further. However, I feel pretty confident we cant do worse than 15-16 and 16-17. Right?!?!?!

[Minny_Weather]

Even the control model on the weeklies is putting down a nice extent of snow into Thanksgiving. The control run has been the most conservative recently.

[Stormgeek]

Man, if that doesn't put "the winter" of the recent decade ('13 '14) in the talk I am not sure what will. That snow cover (forecast) is eerily similar for southern Canada much like what happened in 13. I know better than to be optimistic about winter around here, but man that makes it difficult...

[OKwx2k4]

Bold #1:

 

Like 4 yrs ago?:

 

NCEP Map 2013-11-26.gif

 

 

Bold #2:

 

Yeah, was gonna say "move that south a bit pls!" Looks too much like an avg Dec across SMI..

I'd say you and I are on the same page. The period after mid-November (maybe earlier) looks like it's setting up to bring winter in like a lion for most of us.

[Niko]

This could be the year when a lot of members on here will get to experience a "White Thanksgiving". Man, what a great way to start your Christmas shopping.

[Niko]

Man, if that doesn't put "the winter" of the recent decade ('13 '14) in the talk I am not sure what will. That snow cover (forecast) is eerily similar for southern Canada much like what happened in 13. I know better than to be optimistic about winter around here, but man that makes it difficult...

This upcoming Winter could be more harsh than 13-14'.

[Tom]

I firmly believe the Stratosphere provides us very good long range clues, esp when trying to analyze the long range pattern.  As I have mentioned in the past, GEFS do a really good job sniffing out the 10mb/30mb forecasts in the Week 2 period quite well.  From past experience, it's a very good indicator of when/where high latitude blocking will develop.  With that being said, here is when the pattern "snaps" across N.A. and from all indications, we may have a long duration -NAO block, lock and load end of Oct into Nov.

 

Just as the pattern blocks up across N Canada around the 22nd-24th, the Strat warming takes charge.  I mean, this is significant warming...I have not seen maps like these in this part of the world in a very long time, more than 3-4 years I'd say.  

 

Even though I posted a Day 15 map, each and every run I see the model is steadfast on this massive warming which indicates to me growing confidence this is going to happen.  I'm all in for a -NAO to blossom which will actually be able to carve out deeper troughs across the eastern CONUS as the new LRC continues to develop.

 

 

[GDR]

Looks like the way things are looking, maybe monster storm before thanksgiving. Probably quite a few in December!

[jaster220]

@ Detective Tom

 

Nice work with reading the strato stuff!

 

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, this caught my attention. Ghost of 81-82 haunting the globe?? JB tweeted:

 

"SST for October coldest I can find in eastern Indian Ocean since 1981. would limit convection there. Antilog for warm winter"

 

 

[jaster220]

Every time I re-read this, I'm still amazed. I don't know of anything else in this region's history that can compare with the ferociousness with which Jan '78 hit!

 

"The snow began at about 11 p.m. Jan. 25. By midnight, Jackson police were reporting that roads were impassable."

 

Did you catch that? 1 hr after that storm started, roads where shut down! It's no wonder some called it "the snowmobiler's holiday", that's the only thing that was moving.

 

Speaking of cold pattern locked in, how bout 4 mos nvr touching 50F? That's hard to do around here.

 

"But, by March 30, 1978, the temperature hit 50 degrees for the first time since Dec. 1, 1977".

Edited October 14, 2017 by jaster220

[Niko]

Every time I re-read this, I'm still amazed. I don't know of anything else in this region's history that can compare with the ferociousness with which Jan '78 hit!

 

"The snow began at about 11 p.m. Jan. 25. By midnight, Jackson police were reporting that roads were impassable."

 

Did you catch that? 1 hr after that storm started, roads where shut down! It's no wonder some called it "the snowmobiler's holiday", that's the only thing that was moving.

That must have been some real heavy snow coming down. Prolly 2 ~ 4" per/hr rate. Some real strong dynamics were definitely there, that's for sure.

[jaster220]

That must have been some real heavy snow coming down. Prolly 2 ~ 4" per/hr rate. Some real strong dynamics were definitely there, that's for sure.

Yeah, it was hvy snow but even moreso it came on winds gusting to 70 mph, a true severe blizzard, which is technically defined as heavy snow, 45 mph sustained winds, and ambient temp below 10F

 

The nastiest of the nasty, it was true Arctic conditions in SMI

[Niko]

Yeah, it was hvy snow but even moreso it came on winds gusting to 70 mph, a true severe blizzard, which is technically defined as heavy snow, 45 mph sustained winds, and ambient temp below 10F

 

The nastiest of the nasty, it was true Arctic conditions in SMI

Can you imagine being stranded in that...geez!

[jaster220]

Can you imagine being stranded in that...geez!

Yeah, what a horrible horrible way to spend the worst bliz in history! MI really lucked out with it starting at night on a week day, folks were in. By daybreak, it was obvious nobody was to venture out! OH had it much worse in that the evening before it was raining and a mild 44F. Peeps didn't have a clue what was about to unfold - 51 died in Ohio, only a handful in MI, but some froze to death in their stranded cars, even in SEMI

[Niko]

Yeah, what a horrible horrible way to spend the worst bliz in history! MI really lucked out with it starting at night on a week day, folks were in. By daybreak, it was obvious nobody was to venture out! OH had it much worse in that the evening before it was raining and a mild 44F. Peeps didn't have a clue what was about to unfold - 51 died in Ohio, only a handful in MI, but some froze to death in their stranded cars, even in SEMI

Horrific. That is why its important to know what to do if stranded during a bliz.

[Tom]

Digging into the long range pattern, it is becoming more likely that the 1st PV disruption of the season takes place at the end of the month as both the GEFS/EPS ensembles are seeing it around the 24th/25th of Oct.  I'm seeing more mets catching onto it and is a very good sign that the Strat will play a role late Autumn/Winter.  -QBO doing the work??

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Over in the ENSO Discussion jaster220 wondered this about analog years

“Yep, it's a joke that analogs have to be limited to post-1950, as if that short of a data set covers all potential outcomes in the planet's history! No offense to individual scientists doing their helpful work, but that community at large is full of themselves and their learned endeavors.”

I have this same issue with the use of so called analogs. While not a know analog to this year this is some information (as a follow up to a jaster220 comment) on January 1918.

 

I did a little research on January 1918.  First off 1917 was much colder that average and the year is the coldest mean for the whole year at GRR with a mean of 44.6°  Now for January 1918 I do not know how much snow Marshall or Jackson received but according to the official records at Grand Rapids and other locations  the snows in early mid-January 1918 came is two storms one on January 6^th and 7^th and then the one on January 11^th and 12^th Here are some totals from the two storms Grand Rapids Jan 6^th 11” Jan 7^th 2” Jan 12^th 10” Jan 13^th 2” total on the ground 22” Lansing Jan 6^th 5” Jan 7^th 1.5” Jan 11^th 2” Jan 12^th 4.8” total on the ground 15” Detroit Jan 6^th 2” Jan 11^th 1.3” Jan 12^th 3.7” no report of total on the ground. Saginaw Jan 6^th 5.8” Jan 11^th 6.8” Jan 12 1.2” total on the ground 16” All Michigan locations reported lows on the 12^th of -14° or -15° Fort Wane Jan 1^st (yes the 1^st) 5.7” Jan 7^th 4.0” Jan 11^th 4.2” total on the ground 19” coldest low on the 12^th -24° Chicago Jan 6^th 14.4” Jan 7^th 0.5” Jan 11^th 5.9” Jan 12^th 4.0” total on the ground 25” coldest low -14° January 1918 was a cold and snowy month in the great lakes area. At Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 18.4° (-11.9°) and 45” of snow was reported. I hope this gives you a good idea as to how the winter of 1917/18 turned out but as I said the summer fall leading into it were much different than this year.

[jaster220]

@ WestMiJim

 

Nice report on an epic month for this region. Not sure where you gather historical data from, but sometimes I have heartburn with what I find when I look too far back. Case in point is the Jackson blizzard scenario. That newspaper story said it was 20", the NWS data site shows a 2-day total of only 9.5, yet Albion only 12 mi west has a 3-day total of 15.3" (most realistic in my mind). Charlotte, just 20 miles north shows only 2" and Battle Creek only 3" (both are highly suspect as this was a massive and strong, deepening GOMEX Low). Many of the depth reports both before and after vary wildly over relatively short distances, and thus are also highly suspect.

 

Of all the archival wx data for SMI, I feel that snow related values are the least reliable. I'm not even certain that they employed the same measurement practices we do now, or how consistent they were across all sites back then?

 

As with Jan '78's blizzard, the Jan '18 storm appears to have hit SCMI with a mini-jackpot zone on the order of 15-18", coming on top of 8-10" of existing snow cover. That in my mind could generate the conditions we see in those photos.

 

I have one more piece of evidence of how bad the snow was around here right after the bliz. A picture I found in a book at the library showed the interurban rail trolley on main Street downtown Marshall with snow not much below the platform where the man is standing in this image. If he's an avg 6 foot tall, that platform looks to be about 36" above ground. That calculation makes for a lot of snow on the street here. Looked like a solid 24" OTG if not a bit more.

 

 

[possum]

here is an odd report for you.  never seen it before, nor have i heard of such.  the plumb trees in my yard are blooming again.  right now.  odd early fall for sure..  

[westMJim]

@ WestMiJim

 

Nice report on an epic month for this region. Not sure where you gather historical data from, but sometimes I have heartburn with what I find when I look too far back. Case in point is the Jackson blizzard scenario. That newspaper story said it was 20", the NWS data site shows a 2-day total of only 9.5, yet Albion only 12 mi west has a 3-day total of 15.3" (most realistic in my mind). Charlotte, just 20 miles north shows only 2" and Battle Creek only 3" (both are highly suspect as this was a massive and strong, deepening GOMEX Low). Many of the depth reports both before and after vary wildly over relatively short distances, and thus are also highly suspect.

 

Of all the archival wx data for SMI, I feel that snow related values are the least reliable. I'm not even certain that they employed the same measurement practices we do now, or how consistent they were across all sites back then?

 

As with Jan '78's blizzard, the Jan '18 storm appears to have hit SCMI with a mini-jackpot zone on the order of 15-18", coming on top of 8-10" of existing snow cover. That in my mind could generate the conditions we see in those photos.

 

I have one more piece of evidence of how bad the snow was around here right after the bliz. A picture I found in a book at the library showed the interurban rail trolley on main Street downtown Marshall with snow not much below the platform where the man is standing in this image. If he's an avg 6 foot tall, that platform looks to be about 36" above ground. That calculation makes for a lot of snow on the street here. Looked like a solid 24" OTG if not a bit more.

 

steamengine.JPG

I also am not sure of the procedure that was used for snow fall measurements at that time. I think many locations may have taken the measurements 3 times a day. At the time it may not have been a issue that anyone really cared about. Not sure about other states but here in Michigan counties that receive 80” or more receive help from the state for snow removal. So here in Michigan each county will want to have a accurate snow fall total.

County Formula [sec. 12] — Act 51 sets aside a percentage of funds from the county allocation to be used for snow removal in counties with greater than 80 inches of snow annually. An annual $10,000 from each county’s portion is also allowed for the services of a licensed professional engineer. After that, the Act requires that ten per cent of MTF funds be distributed to counties having Urban mileage, calculated according to a specific formula, and four per cent be distributed to all counties according to population and Local Road mileage for use on county Local Roads. Seventy-five per cent of the remainder is then distributed for use on County Primary roads, according to each county’s share of vehicle registrations, County Primary mileage, and with 15 Seventy-five per cent of the remainder is then distributed for use on County Primary roads, according to each county’s share of vehicle registrations, County Primary mileage, and with 15 per cent distributed equally to all counties. The other 25 per cent of the remainder is distributed for use on County Local roads, based on population and road mileage.

I am not sure is that 80” make is set in stone or can change over time.

[Niko]

https://patch.com/us/across-america/winter-forecast-2017-18-arctic-cold-above-average-snow-some-regions

[jaster220]

https://patch.com/us/across-america/winter-forecast-2017-18-arctic-cold-above-average-snow-some-regions

Well, if Accuwx wanted to replace JB with someone less flamboyant, they scored a bull's-eye with Pastelock. Not only does he ignore the GL/Midwest region in the breakdown, the rest of the read is just so much like an IRS document - no zeal for winter, none. Like watching a balloon slowly deflate.