Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[westMJim]

Brett Anderson over at AccuWeather has his Canadan winter guess out and while the maps only cover Canada, but if you follow the lines into the US it looks like (according to Brett) that the Great Lakes area (Michigan. Wisconsin, norther Indiana and norther Illinois would have a chance of colder and snowier then average winter) And while this would be to the north and east of Michigan he  (Brett Anderson) writes

“ --It will be a cloudier winter near and downwind of the abnormally warm Great Lakes. This should also promote significant lake-effect snowfall events, especially for cities such as Sault Ste. Marie, Barrie and London, Ontario during January and early February.”

So I guess you can add another winter guess to the colder and snowier winter thinking.  We shall see how this plays out. 

[Niko]

Brett Anderson over at AccuWeather has his Canadan winter guess out and while the maps only cover Canada, but if you follow the lines into the US it looks like (according to Brett) that the Great Lakes area (Michigan. Wisconsin, norther Indiana and norther Illinois would have a chance of colder and snowier then average winter) And while this would be to the north and east of Michigan he  (Brett Anderson) writes

“ --It will be a cloudier winter near and downwind of the abnormally warm Great Lakes. This should also promote significant lake-effect snowfall events, especially for cities such as Sault Ste. Marie, Barrie and London, Ontario during January and early February.”

So I guess you can add another winter guess to the colder and snowier winter thinking.  We shall see how this plays out. 

It should be a fun Winter tracking Winterstorms.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster,

 

As far as Winter Outlooks go, I trust no one, even pros because there is no guarantees. Mother nature will do what she wants. End of story! All the pretty maps and etc means jack Sh*t. Although, its nice to look at maps you wanna see, always take it with a grain of salt.

 

not sure why you directed that statement at me personally? Just cuz I like to anticipate where the signs are leading. After last winter (and really same can be said for outlooks for 11-12 around here), there's no need to state the obvious. All seasonal outlooks, but especially winter are little more than a dice toss. Nonetheless, it looks like you've been bitten by the hype-bug 

 

I could only imagine how the streets looked back then. Betta happen this year. I am all hyped up for this Winter. Lets go 13-14" ...lets have a repeat. Only, this time, much more bigger storms. Wooohoooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Niko]

not sure why you directed that statement at me personally? Just cuz I like to anticipate where the signs are leading. After last winter (and really same can be said for outlooks for 11-12 around here), there's no need to state the obvious. All seasonal outlooks, but especially winter are little more than a dice toss. Nonetheless, it looks like you've been bitten by the hype-bug 

Its all good...I was just stating my opinion. You have the right to your own, of course.

 

[jaster220]

Its all good...I was just stating my opinion. You have the right to your own, of course.

 

 

I had not stated that my opinion was any different than yours. I'm just lured into winter outlooks like a moth is drawn to a campfire I guess. I know I could get burned, but I just can't help myself..

[jaster220]

Speaking to the uniqueness of this period, JB's been having about the MJO. This tweet caught my eye:

 

"on the Australian site looking, but I dont know if I can find a record phase 8 and phase 5 in the same year going back 45 years!

Thats wild"

 

You can't quantify a "unique" anything, so we'll just have to wait and see what it has in store for us?

[jaster220]

CFS recent run has mby about -12F. OUCH!

 

 

[Tom]

The new JMA seasonal has trended colder for the Plains/Midwest/Lakes and also wetter from the mid-south/OV/Midwest.  High latitude blocking is much more prevalent this run, esp the up-tick near Greenland.  Of note, the NE PAC ridge looks to be a key player to deliver a lot of cold when it does come.

 

In November, the NE PAC blossoms along with a Bearing Sea trough, delivering a jet into the west/SW region.  Could we have a SW Flow develop mid & end of November?  The CFSv2 has been flashing this idea as well.  Nice blocking look in Eastern Canada/NW NAMER.

 

In December, check out the battle zone draped across the lower 48 which would suggest an intriguing baro zone with a good west/east storm track.  Very active look if you ask me.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201710.D1300_gl0.png

 

 

In January, the NE PAC ridge is massive, likely encouraging some very cold air to infiltrate the lower 48.  This month also looks wet/active along with high latitude blocking.  -QBO aiding the models to see the blocking finally.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201710.D1300_gl0.png

[Tom]

If the GEFS are right, by Halloween, signs of the season's first SSW may be brewing up across Siberia and penetrating the North Pole region to open November.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If this happens, it will set the stage for a winter-like run mid November and/or right before Thanksgiving week if you take into account the "lag" period of 2-3 weeks when these SSW events take place.

 

[Niko]

I had not stated that my opinion was any different than yours. I'm just lured into winter outlooks like a moth is drawn to a campfire I guess. I know I could get burned, but I just can't help myself..

[jaster220]

 

The new JMA seasonal has trended colder for the Plains/Midwest/Lakes and also wetter from the mid-south/OV/Midwest.  High latitude blocking is much more prevalent this run, esp the up-tick near Greenland.  Of note, the NE PAC ridge looks to be a key player to deliver a lot of cold when it does come.

 

In November, the NE PAC blossoms along with a Bearing Sea trough, delivering a jet into the west/SW region.  Could we have a SW Flow develop mid & end of November?  The CFSv2 has been flashing this idea as well.  Nice blocking look in Eastern Canada/NW NAMER.

 

In December, check out the battle zone draped across the lower 48 which would suggest an intriguing baro zone with a good west/east storm track.  Very active look if you ask me.

 

No graphic for Nov precip, etc Tom? Looks great starting in Dec, but to my eyes it does not look like it delivers the cold/stormy Nov that correlates so well with the best of Nina winters. Once again, this may be a moot point if we never reach an official Nina, or we do but the atmosphere decides to act differently than traditional analogs would suggest (see last winter-duh). 

 

Yeah, the Dec maps rock. We can only hope, that even if the cold November doesn't pan out, that Ma Nature has a few tricks left up her sleeve to overcome that research done by the LOT Met. 

[jaster220]

 

 

If the GEFS are right, by Halloween, signs of the season's first SSW may be brewing up across Siberia and penetrating the North Pole region to open November.

 

Am I reading those maps wrong? Looks to me like they again push the lower heights off the pole but over the other side of the globe to where Europe and/or Russia would get the full brunt of that event. Perhaps I'm not reading this correctly? I mean, it may help us better than if there was zero SSW, but I'm not clear how much it's going to help us?

[Tom]

No graphic for Nov precip, etc Tom? Looks great starting in Dec, but to my eyes it does not look like it delivers the cold/stormy Nov that correlates so well with the best of Nina winters. Once again, this may be a moot point if we never reach an official Nina, or we do but the atmosphere decides to act differently than traditional analogs would suggest (see last winter-duh). 

 

Yeah, the Dec maps rock. We can only hope, that even if the cold November doesn't pan out, that Ma Nature has a few tricks left up her sleeve to overcome that research done by the LOT Met. 

Sorry about that, here is the precip map for Nov showing a SW Flow...JMA doesn't necessarily indicate a colder look for our region, more of a battle zone across the Midwest/Lakes...colder the farther NW you go...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201710.D1300_gl0.png

 

 

Here are the temps for Nov (top graphic below)...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201710.D1300_gl2.png

[jaster220]

Sorry about that, here is the precip map for Nov showing a SW Flow...JMA doesn't necessarily indicate a colder look for our region, more of a battle zone across the Midwest/Lakes...colder the farther NW you go...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201710.D1300_gl0.png

 

 

Here are the temps for Nov (top graphic below)...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201710.D1300_gl2.png

 

What's the very first map? The CHI200 map. Is that the pattern at 200 mb? 

 

And yeah, the surface temps look overall mild for the east. I do see hints @ 500 mb of the orientation of lower heights advertised in many other models for the winter, so maybe it's getting there?? 

 

Area outlined in Dk Blue:

 

 

[Tom]

Am I reading those maps wrong? Looks to me like they again push the lower heights off the pole but over the other side of the globe to where Europe and/or Russia would get the full brunt of that event. Perhaps I'm not reading this correctly? I mean, it may help us better than if there was zero SSW, but I'm not clear how much it's going to help us?

If you look at the vectors, it would encourage cross polar flow into N.A.  As far as the placement of the PV, yes, it would be centered on the other side of the Pole but that is not necessarily a bad thing.  All that warming across the Pole would translate to a -AO pattern heading into Nov so we'll see how it works out.

[Tom]

I think most of us on here are all for a front-load winter this season instead of a Jan-Mar back-loaded attack  I'm all for having a 30-45 day period of hard core winter starting from Thanksgiving through the holidays.  If there is a pull back period (unsure yet when that will happen since the LRC is still evolving), but I do feel there will be a pull back and surges of warmth that will try to fight back.  

[Niko]

I think most of us on here are all for a front-load winter this season instead of a Jan-Mar back-loaded attack  I'm all for having a 30-45 day period of hard core winter starting from Thanksgiving through the holidays.  If there is a pull back period (unsure yet when that will happen since the LRC is still evolving), but I do feel there will be a pull back and surges of warmth that will try to fight back.  

Yes, but that is normal to happen in the Winter, No?! Kinda like "January Thaw". Afterwards, we go back to Winter again.

[jaster220]

From a poster on the local SMI site today:

 

 

In the mean time, another unusual storm happened just to our north in Canada with a historic wind storm with synoptic winds gusting 68-80mph.

I have a friend who lives there and said in all the years he has lived in WIlkie Saskatchewan he has never experienced a wind storm like that.

This speaks to the pattern and what will likely eventually happen down here when the track of these powerful storms starts shifting south..Likely around mid November or a bit after that.

 

[jaster220]

Yes, but that is normal to happen in the Winter, No?! Kinda like "January Thaw". Afterwards, we go back to Winter again.

 

1st bold: Yes, and no. A short duration thaw is what was traditional for many moons, not so typical in this era. I think when Tom says "pull-back" he's talking a longer stretch of mild, like what Jan '90 did, and Jan '01 did around these parts after 6-8 wk periods of intense winter conditions. 

 

2nd bolded: Doesn't always work out, thus see #1 above. IF this is meant to be a great winter of cold like 81-82 or 13-14, moderation periods will be shorter lived and not to the extreme of temps. More a relaxing of the pattern, not a roll-over of the pattern.  

[Niko]

From a poster on the local SMI site today:

.......................the track of these powerful storms starts shifting south..Likely around mid November or a bit after that.

 

Looking forward to that!

[Tom]

Here's a nice graphic illustrating the differences between the JMA's recent DJF run compared to the last Sept run:

 

[jaster220]

To go along with above ^^^ 

 

Here's an interesting Factoid regarding how the larger decedal ocean patterns have a broad influence over our wx, and in this specific instance, winter extreme cold waves! 

 

 

The interesting thing about 94 was that it was the last great arctic outbreak before the AMO

switched to the warm phase. Before the change in the AMO, the area just north of Alaska was more prone to

strong ridging during the Januarys from the late seventies into the early nineties. Since then, there has been a

weakness exactly where the ridging was present. We need a strong ridge north of Alaska to really have a chance of

setting record low temperatures. January 2004 was the last time that we made to +1 in NYC but not nearly as

severe for other locations as 1994. January 1994 was the last below 0 reading for NYC.

 

Apparently from an EC poster, but how's this for cold?? "Gotta be careful what we wish for" is written all ova this map! 

 

 

 

Could we be dealing with some extreme cold via the PV paying a visit over deep snow pack? 

[jaster220]

Here's a nice graphic illustrating the differences between the JMA's recent DJF run compared to the last Sept run:

 

 

Back when I shared the OLD map, this was my exact comments!

 

 

 

JMA took a Sept 1st stab at winter and is starting to get a decent look at 500mb. I've a feeling it will trend a bit south with the placement by Oct's run.

[jaster220]

@ NEW map above

 

Man does that orientation remind me of something..winter 2013-14 forecast for Cross-polar flow regime.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ECMWF got a lot colder with the second trough later next week. Strange that the CMC though wants to merge the storm this weekend with the 1st push of chiller air early to mid next week.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

NEW ECMWF ENS Mean snowfall through December 1st. Ensembles keep trending south.

 

Image : https://ibb.co/bXVbkm

[Minny_Weather]

NEW ECMWF ENS Mean snowfall through December 1st. Ensembles keep trending south.

 

Image : https://ibb.co/bXVbkm

I saw that too. The fly in the ointment is the control run shows no snow. Oh the joys of fall in Nebraska.

 

What I think? Screw the control run. I think we have a warmup to start November, then a nice cool down around Veteran's Day to bring in Winter and our possible first snow here.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I saw that too. The fly in the ointment is the control run shows no snow. Oh the joys of fall in Nebraska.

 

What I think? Screw the control run. I think we have a warmup to start November, then a nice cool down around Veteran's Day to bring in Winter and our possible first snow here.

The control run before this did have snow over us. Control run is just one run ensemble is a bunch averaged into one.

[jaster220]

A couple yrs ago, but still pertinent on Snowstorm trends for the US

 

https://www.neefusa.org/weather-and-climate/extreme-weather/winter-storm-trends-united-states

[Tom]

Here's another look at the JMA's Nov 500mb pattern...SW Flow???  Lot's of blocking across NW NAMER/NE PAC would allow for storms to dig into the SW region.

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, it's latest weeklies run has shifted the mean trough smack dab over the central CONUS...

 

 

 

[GDR]

Looks great! Liking the trends

[Tom]

Latest CPC seasonal outlooks just came out today and their Nov outlook looks rather interesting and very a-typical for a La Nina pattern. Pretty good signal for a cooler pattern but gun-shy painting any blue colors.

[Tom]

Looking forward, CPC trends have been MUCH colder as we roll into winter and esp mid/late winter, even into early Spring.  This screams a wildly active/cold pattern for many of our members.

 

 

DJF....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif

 

 

 

JFM...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t03.2c.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p03.2c.gif

 

FMA....

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t04.2c.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p04.2c.gif

[Niko]

Lets see how November will play out. Looks interesting!

[jaster220]

 

 

Latest CPC seasonal outlooks just came out today and their Nov outlook looks rather interesting and very a-typical for a La Nina pattern.  Pretty good signal for a cooler pattern but gun-shy painting any blue anomalies.

 

heard they're no longer copied on Memos by Ma Nature, she got tired of their stuborn bias. She'd prefer to watch them grope in the dark..

[jaster220]

 

 

Looking forward, CPC trends have been MUCH colder as we roll into winter and esp mid/late winter, even into early Spring.  This screams a wildly active/cold pattern for many of our members.

 

Whoa!! Can't remember ever seeing so many straight months of winter with that sweet of a moisture plot - evva! (for SMI ofc). The local SMI forum was started up and is run by an EC transplant and he's always been beating a drum for a season to come along and topple 77-78 for greatest snow depth if nothing else. We may be looking at the best chance of our life times to witness that very thing. 

 

Coldwater, 25 miles due south of Marshall had 38" during the last week of Jan '78!      Bring it! 

[westMJim]

Whoa!! Can't remember ever seeing so many straight months of winter with that sweet of a moisture plot - evva! (for SMI ofc). The local SMI forum was started up and is run by an EC transplant and he's always been beating a drum for a season to come along and topple 77-78 for greatest snow depth if nothing else. We may be looking at the best chance of our life times to witness that very thing. 

 

Coldwater, 25 miles due south of Marshall had 38" during the last week of Jan '78!      Bring it! 

At this time I don’t know what to think of the CPC’s outlook for the upcoming winter season. While there may very well have been other years with that much blue heading into the winter season one season that I can remember is way back in 1983/84 when the DJF outlook called for (at that time the maps read Average, Above average, much above average. Below average and much below average) and in late fall early winter of 1983/84 the map was covered with a large area of Much Below temperatures for our area. At Grand Rapids December 1983 was Much Below (-10.0°) and snowy 34.8” and January was much below -7.2° with below average snow fall (19.4”) February however seen the end of that winter +7.2° and only 1.6” of snow. We shall see how the CPC does this year. I can see some risks with their guess.

[Niko]

At this time I don’t know what to think of the CPC’s outlook for the upcoming winter season. While there may very well have been other years with that much blue heading into the winter season one season that I can remember is way back in 1983/84 when the DJF outlook called for (at that time the maps read Average, Above average, much above average. Below average and much below average) and in late fall early winter of 1983/84 the map was covered with a large area of Much Below temperatures for our area. At Grand Rapids December 1983 was Much Below (-10.0°) and snowy 34.8” and January was much below -7.2° with below average snow fall (19.4”) February however seen the end of that winter +7.2° and only 1.6” of snow. We shall see how the CPC does this year. I can see some risks with their guess.

I agree!

[jaster220]

At this time I don’t know what to think of the CPC’s outlook for the upcoming winter season. While there may very well have been other years with that much blue heading into the winter season one season that I can remember is way back in 1983/84 when the DJF outlook called for (at that time the maps read Average, Above average, much above average. Below average and much below average) and in late fall early winter of 1983/84 the map was covered with a large area of Much Below temperatures for our area. At Grand Rapids December 1983 was Much Below (-10.0°) and snowy 34.8” and January was much below -7.2° with below average snow fall (19.4”) February however seen the end of that winter +7.2° and only 1.6” of snow. We shall see how the CPC does this year. I can see some risks with their guess.

 

That's the beauty of MI, we don't need blue shades to = SNOW, avg to a tad below works for us from mid-Dec thru to mid-March. Track has something (a lot actually) to say about that, but look at 2007-08. Doubt you could find a warmer season as a whole, that dished out so much snow across SMI.

 

And here's a 2013-14 map that shows how that season's pattern was quite W to E in it's distribution.

 

 

 

Those NOAA maps above indicate a more S to N scenario. Verbatim, as Tom said, look out for some wild-n-krazy 10 and 15 day snow accumulation maps forthcoming at some point during this winter!  

[jaster220]

Apparently Dee posted an update on the 11th and invited our NE peeps to the party after all 

 

 

 

 

Personally, he's too W to E and will bust hard in a lot of the regions south and SW of Lwr Mich (as is his normal bias imho). This has all the makings of an OHV hitter like a century ago. But, rather have him busting in that direction tbh. Outside his little enclave of snowmobile heaven, I doubt he cares that much if he's correct or not. He knows who/where his following lies.