Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[possum]

Well, if Accuwx wanted to replace JB with someone less flamboyant, they scored a bull's-eye with Pastelock. Not only does he ignore the GL/Midwest region in the breakdown, the rest of the read is just so much like an IRS document - no real for winter, none. Like watching a balloon slowly deflate.

not sure i buy that.  wid winter chill all the way to brownsville Tx, but "RAIN" for Tennessee and SE Missouri.   that would make for a very strange winter indeed.

[Tom]

I'm not sure if these maps were posted before, but here are the Euro monthlies Dec-Mar showing precip anomalies...

 

 

 

[Tom]

The CFS has been a good tool and sniffed out an early build up of snow in Canada through the month of October.  As the new LRC pattern evolves, N.A. snow cover extent has reached decadal highs and is forecast to continue to build throughout Canada.  More importantly, it seemingly looks to broaden in coverage across NW NAMER and central Canada where above normal anomalies are transpiring.  In past years, we saw eastern Canada fill up with snow early on as a strong +NAO was dominant.  This year, nature may be giving us more clues to our winter season.

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

[Niko]

Well, if Accuwx wanted to replace JB with someone less flamboyant, they scored a bull's-eye with Pastelock. Not only does he ignore the GL/Midwest region in the breakdown, the rest of the read is just so much like an IRS document - no real for winter, none. Like watching a balloon slowly deflate.

Yup, I noticed that!

[jaster220]

The CFS has been a good tool and sniffed out an early build up of snow in Canada through the month of October.  As the new LRC pattern evolves, N.A. snow cover extent has reached decadal highs and is forecast to continue to build throughout Canada.  More importantly, it seemingly looks to broaden in coverage across NW NAMER and central Canada where above normal anomalies are transpiring.  In past years, we saw eastern Canada fill up with snow early on as a strong +NAO was dominant.  This year, nature may be giving us more clues to our winter season.

 

 

 

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

Looking good! I guess it won't fill up Canada with snow til early Nov then? Thought CFS had CAN 95% filled by Nov 1st from a prior map?

[Niko]

@ Jaster,

 

As far as Winter Outlooks go, I trust noone, even pros because there is no guarantees. Mother nature will do what she wants. End of story! All the pretty maps and etc means jack Sh*t. Although, its nice to look at maps you wanna see, always take it with a grain of salt.

[Tom]

Looking good! I guess it won't fill up Canada with snow til early Nov then? Thought CFS had CAN 95% filled by Nov 1st from a prior map?

That's only through the 25th amigo, so you still have about a week more for nature to lay down the snow. Today's run looks good by Nov 1st...

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/10/15/basis00/namk/weas/17110100_1500.gif

[jaster220]

With these two robust storms this week, I noticed a similar HP placement that set-up in a nice position to feed cold air, and act to keep the zone of confluence nicely positioned over SMI. I'll be watching to see if/when this might show up again when it's snow-time!

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

I've beat the drum for an 81-82 analog, and just ran across this tid-bit. It's a good example of how dynamic and stormy and long lasting that winter was for the Midwest.

 

"Saw an interesting tidbit mentioned on FB this morning about a powerful storm system in early April 1982. Sioux City Iowa had a temp of 83 degrees at 2pm, and by 11pm that night they had 60mph+ winds with blizzard conditions."

 

That was the April 2-3 storm, goes on to say how it got down to sub 980mb and gave the entire Midwest quite the windstorm.

[Tom]

With these two robust storms this week, I noticed a similar HP placement that set-up in a nice position to feed cold air, and act to keep the zone of confluence nicely positioned over SMI. I'll be watching to see if/when this might show up again when it's snow-time!

 

usa_ICast (2).gif

 

post-99-0-07030300-1508014172.gif

Good eye!  Same here...great overall placement of the HP's early on in the season.  It also would be a great placement for Lehs snowfall on this side of the lake.

[jaster220]

Good eye! Same here...great overall placement of the HP's early on in the season. It also would be a great placement for Lehs snowfall on this side of the lake.

LOL, if this repeats you won't need the

lake to "fluff" totals my friend!

[Niko]

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/blizzard-survival-tips

[Minny_Weather]

https://weather.com/safety/winter/news/blizzard-survival-tips

I'm glad I know to do pushups in my sedan when stranded in a blizzard!

[Niko]

I'm glad I know to do pushups in my sedan when stranded in a blizzard!

[jaster220]

Cute little vid that makes the FA winter outlook sound much better than their map would indicate.

 

https://youtu.be/aypB6E52-9w

[Niko]

Cute little vid that makes the FA winter outlook sound much better than their map would indicate.

 

https://youtu.be/aypB6E52-9w

[Tom]

Fresh hot off the press, the warm-biased IRI continues with a colder outlook for most of us on here.  Continues to look very wet/active across the Lakes/Midwest/OV and Rockies.

 

 

[GDR]

Looks real good for Nebraska and Iowa peeps!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I agree. Looks great! Extended gfs just after 240 looks cold and first flakes!

[Tom]

GEFS are predicting for Canada to be pretty much filled with snow by the end of the month...

 

 

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/Figure4_12.png

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/Figure7_11.png

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/Figure9_10.png

 

 

Some key notes from Dr. Cohen's blog today:

 

 

 

In fact the forecast of Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) or poleward heat transport shows an increased poleward heat flux (Figure 11) in the next couple of weeks.  This results in a perturbed and displaced stratospheric PV towards Eurasia with some warming of the polar stratosphere over Canada (Figure 12). 

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/Figure11_9.png

 

 

I've been showing maps of the huge warming the GEFS have been forecasting to persist across N Canada and here are more thoughts from Cohen:

 

 

 

This further results in a negative trend in the stratospheric AO (Figure 1).  The Canadian warming in the stratosphere is likely related to the pattern change across North America with a more amplified pattern and western North America ridging.  Across Eurasia the perturbed PV would likely favor an overall mild pattern across Eurasia with the possible exception of Siberia closer to the center of the PV.

 

 

And finally, he mentioned the decadal highs in snow cover over N.A....

 

 

 

North American snow cover is also above normal and is more than last year at this date and near decadal highs.  When the pattern turns more amplified across North America, more extensive snow cover could support colder Arctic air masses.

[Tom]

Holy crap are the Euro weeklies cold and wintry looking, esp 11/11 through Thanksgiving week!  #whitethanksgiving

[Tom]

Take a gander at this Week 2-4 500mb pattern...this would signal a faster start to Winter then say....2013????

 

[Tom]

The Bearing Sea/Aleutain Low is locked from Oct 24th through the end of the run (Nov 30th).  That pretty much says it all right there.  FWIW, the 2" mean snow line has shifted south into the TX Panhalde/STL/Indy/Cincinatti by Nov 30th.  If that isn't a cold signal, not sure what more you could ask for.

[Tom]

Latest IRI JFM period...

 

 

[Tom]

If GEFS continue to advertise this type of warming over N Canada and Greenland, expect to see a -NAO this winter.  Euro Weeklies are now beginning to show this.  This is starting to look very, very interesting!

 

 

[jaster220]

@ map

 

That's some serious blocking by the looks of it. Usually trees have about a month, from now til mid-Nov to peak and shed their leafs. Looks like this year that may be cut short.

[Tom]

@ map

 

That's some serious blocking by the looks of it. Usually trees have about a month, from now til mid-Nov to peak and shed their leafs. Looks like this year that may be cut short.

My idea was that by the end of this month there will be a lot of bare trees around here, let alone near the GL's region where its already been cold enough.  I agree, this year the signals nature was displaying seems reasonable to think that the clues are out there....just gotta wake up and see nature speaking for yourself!  

[jaster220]

@ IRI

 

Yikes! Look at temps for SMI. Peeps better be getting their extra cords of wood!

[jaster220]

My idea was that by the end of this month there will be a lot of bare trees around here, let alone near the GL's region where its already been cold enough. I agree, this year the signals nature was displaying seems reasonable to think that the clues are out there....just gotta wake up and see nature speaking for yourself!

 

Saw a new vid out of Indiana showing how Peach pits, or more precisely, the shape of the seed inside indicates whether winter will be cold and snowy. If it looks like a spoon or tiny shovel, expect to do a lot of shovelling. They're all spoons this year. For mild winters they will have little tines that make them resemble forks. Had not heard of that one before.

[Tom]

@ IRI

 

Yikes! Look at temps for SMI. Peeps better be getting their extra cords of wood!

I chuckled when I read this because I literally was thinking the same thing when I saw these maps. Almost made the same comment. #Telepathy

[Niko]

@ IRI

 

Yikes! Look at temps for SMI. Peeps better be getting their extra cords of wood!

That is mighty cold.

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

Not that I'm reverting back to cheering on a stronger Nina, but I did notice something when comparing maps. While 13-14 featured the bitter cold and greater snow depths, overall 07-08 treated most of SEMI to a great total whereas 13-14 was best mainly for west side of Detroit. It really was a jackpot winter all along 94 across SMI.

 

 

 

Vs

 

 

 

 

These were great maps, which GRR never had (they had event maps but no annual totals), but it looks like they stopped 3 yrs ago. Nothing after 13-14.

[jaster220]

Oh, and thinking about whether it's even possible for these two storms to cycle back around during winter, there is actually precedent for two Big Dogs in one week and it was in Detroit proper no less! On Feb 28, 1900 a storm dropped 12.4" and a second more complex system on March 4-6 dropped another 19.6"! Giving Detroit proper their all-time greatest depth of 26" OTG! Again, that's the city proper as this was even before the Wright Brothers so no airports yet. Could something similar be in Motown's future this year??

[jaster220]

Horrific. That is why its important to know what to do if stranded during a bliz.

 

Your answer:

 

I'm glad I know to do pushups in my sedan when stranded in a blizzard!

I won't post any more maps showing blizzards over your way though..they could be wrong. :-P

[jaster220]

Man, if that doesn't put "the winter" of the recent decade ('13 '14) in the talk I am not sure what will. That snow cover (forecast) is eerily similar for southern Canada much like what happened in 13. I know better than to be optimistic about winter around here, but man that makes it difficult...

This could be the year when a lot of members on here will get to experience a "White Thanksgiving". Man, what a great way to start your Christmas shopping.

Take a gander at this Week 2-4 500mb pattern...this would signal a faster start to Winter then say....2013????

 

Nov 2013, besides the LES event that jack-potted my work place, a 2nd LES on the 28th dumped 16" about eight miles inland. It was T-day eve, and I remember driving home thru a small City and peeps were snow-blowing about 15" off their walks! 2000, and 2004 were other Thanksgivings with snowstorms in modern times. I think '75 also had a pretty big storm at the holiday.

[Niko]

Nov 2013, besides the LES event that jack-potted my work place, a 2nd LES on the 28th dumped 16" about eight miles inland. It was T-day eve, and I remember driving home thru a small City and peeps were snow-blowing about 15" off their walks! 2000, and 2004 were other Thanksgivings with snowstorms in modern times. I think '75 also had a pretty big storm at the holiday.

Now, gotta remember that during this timeframe (Thanksgiving holiday) lots of people will be traveling, so a snowstorm does not seem like a good idea to be happening, then again, "What the Heck" let it happen. Travelers, be careful!

[Niko]

Oh, and thinking about whether it's even possible for these two storms to cycle back around during winter, there is actually precedent for two Big Dogs in one week and it was in Detroit proper no less! On Feb 28, 1900 a storm dropped 12.4" and a second more complex system on March 4-6 dropped another 19.6"! Giving Detroit proper their all-time greatest depth of 26" OTG! Again, that's the city proper as this was even before the Wright Brothers so no airports yet. Could something similar be in Motown's future this year??

I could only imagine how the streets looked back then. Betta happen this year. I am all hyped up for this Winter. Lets go 13-14" ...lets have a repeat. Only, this time, much more bigger storms. Wooohoooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

Not that I'm reverting back to cheering on a stronger Nina, but I did notice something when comparing maps. While 13-14 featured the bitter cold and greater snow depths, overall 07-08 treated most of SEMI to a great total whereas 13-14 was best mainly for west side of Detroit. It really was a jackpot winter all along 94 across SMI.

 

2007_2008.png

 

Vs

 

2013_2014.png

 

 

These were great maps, which GRR never had (they had event maps but no annual totals), but it looks like they stopped 3 yrs ago. Nothing after 13-14.

The 13-14' map is pretty much off its totals in the Macomb area. The area I am in received near 101" for Winter total. Not sure why they are saying 61".

[westMJim]

@ Niko

 

Not that I'm reverting back to cheering on a stronger Nina, but I did notice something when comparing maps. While 13-14 featured the bitter cold and greater snow depths, overall 07-08 treated most of SEMI to a great total whereas 13-14 was best mainly for west side of Detroit. It really was a jackpot winter all along 94 across SMI.

 

2007_2008.png

 

Vs

 

2013_2014.png

 

 

These were great maps, which GRR never had (they had event maps but no annual totals), but it looks like they stopped 3 yrs ago. Nothing after 13-14.

It could be that GRR has no maps due to some very spotty reporting. For you information here is some snow reports for locations that have reports for both winters of 07/08 and 13/14 Note many of the locations in the GRR reporting area do not have reports or are very spotty.

GRR 07/08 83.3" 13/14 116.0" Muskegon 07/08 110.3" 13/14 132.7" Lansing 07/08 69.8" 13/14 69.1" Alma 07/08 59.0" 13/14 Missing Battle Creek 07/08 93.0" 13/14 106.8" Big Rapids 07/08 72.4" 13/14 101.6" Grand Rapids west side (closer to my house) 07/08 107.0" 13/14 136.4"

[OKwx2k4]

Atmosphere is going to hit the accelerator right on time. Gonna be a fun November.