Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2017-10-19-colder-pattern-change-first-snow-northern-great-lakes-appalachians

[jaster220]

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2017-10-19-colder-pattern-change-first-snow-northern-great-lakes-appalachians

 

 

 

Highs and lows are forecast to be up to 10 degrees below late-October averages.

 

  That statement right there looks a little bit "hype-ish". I doubt mid-upper 50's in the later part of October is 10 deg's below normal. 

 

Ofc, since it's been so warm for weeks now, it's going to feel like that

[Niko]

  That statement right there looks a little bit "hype-ish". I doubt mid-upper 50's in the later part of October is 10 deg's below normal. 

 

Ofc, since it's been so warm for weeks now, it's going to feel like that

By late October , my average high is somewhere around the low 50s.

[westMJim]

By late October , my average high is somewhere around the low 50s.

The average high/low at Grand Rapids for Oct 31 is 55/38 and at Detroit 54/40

[Niko]

The average high/low at Grand Rapids for Oct 31 is 55/38 and at Detroit 54/40

For the Macomb area where I live, the average high and Low is 56/39. I think there might be a error with my normal high of 56. It think its close to 53 or 51 for an average high.

[jaster220]

The average high/low at Grand Rapids for Oct 31 is 55/38 and at Detroit 54/40

GR warmer than DET?? That's odd in any season.

[Niko]

GR warmer than DET?? That's odd in any season.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Anything with "The Weather Channel" labeled on it is "Fake Weather". Lol. 

[Niko]

Anything with "The Weather Channel" labeled on it is "Fake Weather". Lol. 

Why is it "Fake Weather"? Dont get ya point. They are doing a great job (both forecasting and reporting live in severe weather).

[Tom]

Anyone else having issues on Wx Bell with the Euro weeklies???

 

Anyways, GEFS are starting to see a stripe of accumulating snow from the N Rockies out into the Dakotas/Northwoods region to open November.  The seasons are about to turn wintry very soon.  I'm amazed at how massive the Strat warming signal is being advertised right over the pole to open November.

[Minny_Weather]

Why is it "Fake Weather"? Dont get ya point. They are doing a great job (both forecasting and reporting live in severe weather).

I'll give them credit, they're moving away from their annoying "Today Show with a weather emphasis" phase they went through a few years back. Now if they would stop naming clippers...

[Minny_Weather]

Anyone else having issues on Wx Bell with the Euro weeklies???

YES.

[GDR]

Fake news Fake weather what's next?

[Niko]

I'll give them credit, they're moving away from their annoying "Today Show with a weather emphasis" phase they went through a few years back. Now if they would stop naming clippers...

Yup, the shows that they still have need to go. It should be 24/7 weather. The great job that they do should be continuously around the clock. They need to hire meteorologists that are willing to work night shifts.

[Minny_Weather]

Yup, the shows that they still have need to go. It should be 24/7 weather. The great job that they do should be continuously around the clock. They need to hire meteorologists that are willing to work night shifts.

They did an amazing job this hurricane season imo. Reminds me of when I watched their hurricane coverage in 2005 as a kid on the Texas coast.

[hlcater]

Anyone else having issues on Wx Bell with the Euro weeklies???

 

Anyways, GEFS are starting to see a stripe of accumulating snow from the N Rockies out into the Dakotas/Northwoods region to open November.  The seasons are about to turn wintry very soon.  I'm amazed at how massive the Strat warming signal is being advertised right over the pole to open November.

Not sure whether it has the Euro Weeklies, but have you heard about weather.us and wx.graphics? They both provide many free euro products at all forecast hour points. I haven't looked much into it, but they are using the same graphics Ryan Maue made since he left wxbell. So maybe no need for a subscription anymore?

[Niko]

They did an amazing job this hurricane season imo. Reminds me of when I watched their hurricane coverage in 2005 as a kid on the Texas coast.

They were awesome reporting live during those hurricanes.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

They were awesome reporting live during those hurricanes.

In my opinion they have just gone down hill ever since NBC acquired them. 

[GDR]

In my opinion they have just gone down hill ever since NBC acquired them.

NBC is fake news. I think Fox should have acquired them

[Tom]

Not sure whether it has the Euro Weeklies, but have you heard about weather.us and wx.graphics? They both provide many free euro products at all forecast hour points. I haven't looked much into it, but they are using the same graphics Ryan Maue made since he left wxbell. So maybe no need for a subscription anymore?

Yes, I am aware of Ryan's company.  However, he does not have the Euro/CFSv2 weeklies and other Euro products that I find useful.  Thanks for the heads up tho.

[Minny_Weather]

In my opinion they have just gone down hill ever since NBC acquired them.

I 100% agree. However, over the past couple of years they finally started listening to the people and started focusing more on weather. Now if only they'd get rid of all the shows.

[jaster220]

Yup, the shows that they still have need to go. It should be 24/7 weather. The great job that they do should be continuously around the clock. They need to hire meteorologists that are willing to work night shifts.

 

They hired (curios) George Elliott, what more can you ask??    No joke, dude in his early years looked, acted, and spoke like the cartoon character!

 

George was a local Met on a K'zoo TV channel back in the early 80's that all the kids made jokes about. My ex couldn't believe that a major cable channel like TWC actually hired him  . His persona was about as diametrically opposed to the macho appeal of a Jim Cantore as one could get. 

 

 

 

Guess he went back to his home region..

 

 

[westMJim]

GR warmer than DET?? That's odd in any season.

Actually, With a 55/38 to 54/40 the mean is warmer at Detroit than Grand Rapids. Other Michigan locations for October 31^st Flint 54/36, Jackson 55/37, Lansing 54/37. For the month of October, the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 50.6° and at Detroit is 52.5° about a one-degree difference. 

[Niko]

They hired (curios) George Elliott, what more can you ask??    No joke, dude in his early years looked, acted, and spoke like the cartoon character!

 

George was a local Met on a K'zoo TV channel back in the early 80's that all the kids made jokes about. My ex couldn't believe that a major cable channel like TWC actually hired him  . His persona was about as diametrically opposed to the macho appeal of a Jim Cantore as one could get. 

 

G Elliott story TWC yrs.JPG

 

Guess he went back to his home region..

 

G Elliott story.JPG

He was funny in many ways.

[Niko]

NBC is fake news. I think Fox should have acquired them

[Niko]

Actually, With a 55/38 to 54/40 the mean is warmer at Detroit than Grand Rapids. Other Michigan locations for October 31^st Flint 54/36, Jackson 55/37, Lansing 54/37. For the month of October, the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 50.6° and at Detroit is 52.5° about a one-degree difference. 

Macomb stands slightly colder ( don't have any accurate numbers to give ya) than Detroit, but not by much. I.E.,on the 31st of October, average high and low runs at prolly 53/38.

[jaster220]

Shows that at this time of year, there's actually very little difference (noise level really) between all the bigger cities cited, since none are lake front.

 

Marshall:

 

 

[gimmesnow]

TWC really went downhill for a while, look at all the non-weather click bait on their website. Well, it has gotten better, but I remember seeing tons of horrible clickbait articles, like "You won't believe what this cat just did!", "And then he..." types of click bait garbage.

[NEJeremy]

Fake news Fake weather what's next?

Fake president

[NEJeremy]

NBC is fake news. I think Fox should have acquired them

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-fox-news-navy-seal-fake-20171020-story.html 

[jaster220]

^^^ omg, I thought serious news outlets did at least the bare minimum "fact check" background leg work to avoid such embarrassments. Shows what know about today's journalistic norms. 

[jaster220]

We have quietness again..

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

That's what I like to see right there. No spots.

[Niko]

Fake president

[Tom]

The progression of the pattern continues to provide us more clues as to where mother nature may be leading us in the coming weeks.  Firstly, here is the current status of the Canadian snow cover...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

Where do we go from here????  By Halloween, 12z GFS and 12z EPS suggest that there will be an expansions west/east and more importantly, south towards the middle of N.A.

 

 

[Niko]

The progression of the pattern continues to provide us more clues as to where mother nature may be leading us in the coming weeks.  Firstly, here is the current status of the Canadian snow cover...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

Where do we go from here????  By Halloween, 12z GFS and 12z EPS suggest that there will be an expansions west/east and more importantly, south towards the middle of N.A.

 

A trace of snow on my pumpkins would look very nice.

[Niko]

http://image.nj.com/home/njo-media/width600/img/new-jersey-weather/photo/winter-outlook-2017-precip-noaajpg-b713b26a383dc8af.jpg

[jaster220]

http://image.nj.com/home/njo-media/width600/img/new-jersey-weather/photo/winter-outlook-2017-precip-noaajpg-b713b26a383dc8af.jpg

Yep, she's a beaut for precip ain't she? Now to see what percentage of that falls as snow! We don't need super cold to get snow, just need to get lucky with track and timing of the cold air aloft.

[Niko]

Yep, she's a beaut for precip ain't she? Now to see what percentage of that falls as snow! We don't need super cold to get snow, just need to get lucky with track and timing of the cold air aloft.

Oh yeah....look at all that above normal precip. Cold air betta be in place.

[jaster220]

Here's a little solar update from a poster on the SMI forum who follows that closely:

 

"The quiet sun is short-lived as another active region is rotating into view and already produced a moderate M1 class solar flare. I predicted we would see one more uptick with the sun before the year is out.

Active periods on the sun in the fall have more times than not been a good sign. 2013 did it but that was at solar max and we are at the half point to solar min but the bursts of sunspots and resulting intense solar activity in the fall is indeed a good sign. The very active period we had not that long ago that produced two exceptionally powerful X-class flares happened at the best possible time.

It will be interesting to see what this new region does."