Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Niko]

Those purple colors in Canada scream...shall I say...Polar Vortex....the era of '13-'14 mixed in with a strong signal for a SW Flow, of which, was NOT present in that winter season.  As much as everyone from IA and points east loved that winter, it did not have a favorable SW Flow and was predominately NW Flow with sheared systems.  Due in part by the monster NE PAC ridge (aka "The Blob) which is not being forecast this season.  If you can marry '07-'08 with '13-'14, I think there will be many many happy campers on here.

If these two get together this Winter, I will be speechless at almost every storm that hits my area and of course others on this forum as well. It will be a "Sweet Winter".

[Minny_Weather]

If you can marry '07-'08 with '13-'14, I think there will be many many happy campers on here.

Are there any scenarios where Nebraska doesn't get screwed?

[Tom]

Are there any scenarios where Nebraska doesn't get screwed?

At this juncture, when looking at the entirety of the cold season (Nov-Mar), its hard for me not to think that NE scores some hits this season.  All you need is one big one or many 3-6" events to have a good season.  From what I'm seeing, albeit very early in the game. I'm more confident this year than I have been of the past 2 winters that we should see a solid winter for the central CONUS.

[Tom]

Are there any scenarios where Nebraska doesn't get screwed?

I think there are always scenarios that can put a wrench into any forecast.  Example: SE ridge being much to strong, lack of blocking, etc...but you guys normally to better than us over here when the ridge is stronger than forecast.  Let's wait and see how October plays out and where the mean long term long wave trough sets up.

[NEJeremy]

Are there any scenarios where Nebraska doesn't get screwed?

Yeah. Living in Nebraska is all it takes

[NEJeremy]

Noticed the ranges on some of these cities. Particularly Grand Rapids with a MET winter range up to 95" - gotta like that 

 

20170928 BAMwx DJF Selected city snowfall guess.PNG

So it looks like everyone should have an average winter. How daring of them to predict something like that

[westMJim]

@ WestMJim,

 

I am curious to know what type of weather phenomenon do you usually get in the Winter more frequently...... LES or storm systems?M

Most of the winter snow in west Michigan is . LES  The west side of Grand Rapids gets about 77 to 80" of snow on average without the lake effect it would be around 40 to 45" 

[Tom]

The trends on the CFS are something I have not seen before.  Where do I sign up to see a snow cover like this by end of November???

 

 

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/09/29/basis00/namk/weas/17120100_2900.gif

[james1976]

At this juncture, when looking at the entirety of the cold season (Nov-Mar), its hard for me not to think that NE scores some hits this season. All you need is one big one or many 3-6" events to have a good season. From what I'm seeing, albeit very early in the game. I'm more confident this year than I have been of the past 2 winters that we should see a solid winter for the central CONUS.

Thats how the winter of 2013-14 was for me. All kinds of 2-4" events which ended up being a near record snowfall for Waterloo. I only had one storm of 5-6". Every other system was less. The PV was crazy that season which pushed any bigger storms SE of me. It was basically NW flow all winter which led to a clipper parade and record cold. The bad thing for you guys in NE is that not all,but most clippers stay north and east of you.

[james1976]

The trends on the CFS are something I have not seen before. Where do I sign up to see a snow cover like this by end of November???

 

 

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/09/29/basis00/namk/weas/17120100_2900.gif

NE folks looking good early on! As well as most of the forum.

[Tom]

Northern Hemisphere sea ice ticked above the 10-year mean early on in Sept and reached its seasonal sea ice minimum about a week earlier this year.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/images/sea_ice_only.jpg

[jaster220]

Those purple colors in Canada scream...shall I say...Polar Vortex....the era of '13-'14 mixed in with a strong signal for a SW Flow, of which, was NOT present in that winter season.  As much as everyone from IA and points east loved that winter, it did not have a favorable SW Flow and was predominately NW Flow with sheared systems.  Due in part by the monster NE PAC ridge (aka "The Blob) which is not being forecast this season.  If you can marry '07-'08 with '13-'14, I think there will be many many happy campers on here.

 

For Marshall, the snow totals weren't terribly far apart in those two seasons. The main difference was temps and thus durability of snow cover and depths obtained. In 07-08 we melted off so frequently that no historic depths, let alone snow-cover days were ever seen. The opposite was true ofc with 2013-14 peaking at 20+ depth twice and the amount of days with double digits was off the charts for the non-LES regions of SMI. I mean deep snow cover days for Detroit as an example were like 10X the avg and 5X the prior record. Crazy winter by SEMI standards!

[jaster220]

The average snowfall for NY is definitely wrong. I am sure incorrect info given on other cities as well.

 

Prolly cuz you're thinking seasonal total and their table is for DJF only. I mentioned that when posting it..

 

They didn't include Lincoln or Omaha? I want my safe space.

 

LMAO

 

I don't know about the other locations but for the range in Grand Rapids the most snow fall for DJF at GRR was 105.6" in the winter of 2013/14 With 34.7" in December, 41.9" in January and 29.0" in February. The 94.9" happened in the winter of 2007/08.  The least amount of snow at Grand Rapids (the old airport was the location of the official readings at the time) was 13.4" in 1943/44..The most snow for each month at Grand Rapids October 8.4" 1967, November 31.0" 2014, December 59.2" 2000, January 46.8" 1999, February 41.6" 2008, March 36.0" 1965, April 15.6" 1961 and May 5.5" 1923" as for the ave for DJF The latest 30 year ave for GRR is 59" and 76.4" for the season total.

 

NARROWLY edged GR with 42.8" at my place - hard to do in Marshall where LES is scant by comparison. 

 

So it looks like everyone should have an average winter. How daring of them to predict something like that

 

  For sure, whomever did the Table values didn't coordinate with the person doing the maps, did they?? Looks like they took the avg of their analog seasons and added a small amount, even though their map shows many places above to MUCH above average. LOL

 

Most of the winter snow in west Michigan is . LES  The west side of Grand Rapids gets about 77 to 80" of snow on average without the lake effect it would be around 40 to 45" 

 

Also, did a study and it looks like many of GR's top 5 historic snowstorms (total amount) were multi-day LES events vs pure synoptic storms. GR sits on the far NW fringe of the SMI storm track/zone so it's pretty difficult for them to be in the "sweet spot" of a storm swath. They sure get a nice combination of snow types though and often have good snow depth and colder temps to keep it longer than SEMI or even Marshall. 

[jaster220]

BAMWx is using the AAM correlation as an analog and here is the 500mb pattern...

 

 

CFSv2 trends for DJF...

 

 

The trends on the CFS are something I have not seen before.  Where do I sign up to see a snow cover like this by end of November???

 

 

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/09/29/basis00/namk/weas/17120100_2900.gif

 

Oklahoma MIGHT be stretching it, but heck, sign me up anyways   

[Minny_Weather]

Oklahoma MIGHT be stretching it, but heck, sign me up anyways

I'd like a white Thanksgiving. We've had icy thanksgivings lately but I don't know the last time we've had a white one. Snow in November here is pretty common, but it's hard to retain it unless it falls in the last week of the month.

[Tom]

Looking out farther into late Autumn/early Winter, I'm very encouraged to see that the CFSv2 does not extend a "cooler" tongue of cold waters towards the PAC NW/West coast of N.A.  Last year, this was the dagger to our winter out east but if this trend continues, IMO it should be a better winter for many of us.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd2.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd3.gif

[Niko]

Oklahoma MIGHT be stretching it, but heck, sign me up anyways   

Sign me up also...

[Niko]

Most of the winter snow in west Michigan is . LES  The west side of Grand Rapids gets about 77 to 80" of snow on average without the lake effect it would be around 40 to 45" 

 You guys get inundated with LES. Sweet!

[Niko]

http://i67.tinypic.com/s17n6o.jpg

[Minny_Weather]

http://i67.tinypic.com/s17n6o.jpg

I've always been very verbal about them getting rid of the freezing rain advisory. Simply, why. When people think of winter weather advisory, they think snow, not ice. May as well get rid of ice storm warnings too.

[Tom]

TWC's outlook for Oct/Nov...

 

 

 

[Niko]

TWC's outlook for Oct/Nov...

 

 

 

 

That could be true for October and November. It starts getting much colder by Dec and thereafter.

[Minny_Weather]

TWC's outlook for Oct/Nov...

 

 

 

I think they're warm biased. I think it should be light orange for almost all of the sub for both months.

[Niko]

I've always been very verbal about them getting rid of the freezing rain advisory. Simply, why. When people think of winter weather advisory, they think snow, not ice. May as well get rid of ice storm warnings too.

I have to say that I was always against this new idea they came up with.

[james1976]

TWC's outlook for Oct/Nov...

 

 

 

Did TWC not get the memo that El Nino is pretty much not happening? Lol

[jaster220]

Did TWC not get the memo that El Nino is pretty much not happening? Lol

LOL @ TWChumps! If they can lean warm, they will. Like NOAA, below normal is not in their vocabulary..

 

So, a recent preliminary winter outlook by WEATHER Decoded was put out. "Long range winter forecasts..like tossing darts in a hurricane" love that quote! Also love at least 2 of his 3 analog seasons! Considering the natural delayed response to ENSO state he's not seeing an early winter but overall Dec-Mar kills it for mby based on the analogs.

 

https://youtu.be/j3Ip5h2j57M

[jaster220]

Snowday's prelim comes out about 3 pm but I'll have to loop back cuz busy with this awesome wx!

 

K, it's out, and I love it!

 

 

Hope this works:

 

https://m.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.122604394474635.19752.122352087833199/1465565856845142/?type=3&source=54

[jaster220]

https://youtu.be/uPHZ5eDkSD0

 

LOL @ "final" used in this outlook, but what he says about the GLs sounds choice so cutting him some slack.

[NEJeremy]

Snowday's prelim comes out about 3 pm but I'll have to loop back cuz busy with this awesome wx!

 

K, it's out, and I love it!

 

 

Hope this works:

 

https://m.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.122604394474635.19752.122352087833199/1465565856845142/?type=3&source=54

I see this type of forecast almost every year from him and even on this forum. Tons of snow and cold for everyone it seems like. I'm not trying to be too critical as I'm not personally making a long term forecast, but I've been following winter forums for probably 5-6 years and it's the same every year it seems. Love the optimism but funny how it rarely seems to work out, especially for Nebraska!

[Niko]

Snowday's prelim comes out about 3 pm but I'll have to loop back cuz busy with this awesome wx!

 

K, it's out, and I love it!

 

 

Hope this works:

 

https://m.facebook.com/snowdayweather/photos/a.122604394474635.19752.122352087833199/1465565856845142/?type=3&source=54

Great looking map! 

[jaster220]

I see this type of forecast almost every year from him and even on this forum. Tons of snow and cold for everyone it seems like. I'm not trying to be too critical as I'm not personally making a long term forecast, but I've been following winter forums for probably 5-6 years and it's the same every year it seems. Love the optimism but funny how it rarely seems to work out, especially for Nebraska!

Well, tbh I don't remember if I saw his last year, but one of the first things he wrote was how badly he (and most) busted last year, and I respect that. You can tell from his very strong words of disclaimer that he's feeling a bit humbled by Ma Nature's wicked curve ball. I also get that you NE peeps have gotten shafted every which way from Sunday. With that said, the odds should now be stacked in your favor tbh.

 

Both outlooks I posted today give NE above avg snow. You guys are being invited to the party, lol I hope someone RSVP's

[jaster220]

A few yrs ago but interesting article. MN with 88" OTG that's amazing if you ask me. I'd like to challenge the local record depths for Marshall (27") and Battle Creek (31"). Hey, nevva say nevva..

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/10/deepest_snows_by_state_see_whe.html

[Niko]

A few yrs ago but interesting article. MN with 88" OTG that's amazing if you ask me. I'd like to challenge the local record depths for Marshall (27") and Battle Creek (31"). Hey, nevva say nevva..

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/10/deepest_snows_by_state_see_whe.html

So true!

[jaster220]

So true!

Niko, I just found this map n story that was publish back in August of 2014. Not only does it support mby total of 100.5", but I noticed 2 other standouts in the long list of locales. Bloomingdale in Van Buren Cnty where my son's live had almost 170" (166)! I know they mentioned having to clear 36" from their driveway twice. The other one was Maple City, a small Polish community west of Traverse City. Back in winter of 1990-91 I worked near there. They scored an incredible 266"! If that's not the LP record I'd like to know what is?

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/08/season_snow.html

 

Think I'll try to look up some daily snow data for Maple City during that year, should be interesting.

[Niko]

Niko, I just found this map n story that was publish back in August of 2014. Not only does it support mby total of 100.5", but I noticed 2 other standouts in the long list of locales. Bloomingdale in Van Buren Cnty where my son's live had almost 170" (166)! I know they mentioned having to clear 36" from their driveway twice. The other one was Maple City, a small Polish community west of Traverse City. Back in winter of 1990-91 I worked near there. They scored an incredible 266"! If that's not the LP record I'd like to know what is?

 

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/08/season_snow.html

 

Think I'll try to look up some daily snow data for Maple City during that year, should be interesting.

 

 

Impressive! Those snow totals are crazy!

[jaster220]

Winter Severity Index. Looks like our sub west to east is in the same category:

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Looks like Omaha only had one winter worse than 2009-10 since 1960. That was 59-60 a notorious winter for Mich as well.

[Niko]

TWC posted b4 that my first accumulating snowfall on average is in November (Jaster, that includes you too? I thought you get accumulating snows earlier?!)

[jaster220]

TWC posted b4 that my first accumulating snowfall on average is in November (Jaster, that includes you too? I thought you get accumulating snows earlier?!)[/quote

 

Occasionally in October, yes I can. Prolly 70% is in Nov though.

[jaster220]

Another volcano to blow?

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-26/volcanic-eruption-forces-thousands-to-evacuate-island-in-vanuatu/8990922