Discussion for the Winter of 2017-18

[Minny_Weather]

So some IL poster on Amwx said he was at "another forum" where every winter is going to be another 2013-14 and everything's over-hyped about the coming winter. People pushed him and he said it was here, lol. Saying how the followers drink the koolaid in here. Too funny.

 

He seems to be rubbing peeps the wrong way when he pops in over there with warminista bias to his comments. Ofc, he could be posting under another name here, but I don't see any regular posters in here that would match that profile. Some traditional core winter posters are ready to have him gone, I know that..

It's funny to see how the members of that forum are now outing him as a troll- which he is. 

 

I have not seen one person on here say that this Winter will be a 2013-2014 one. I don't think it will be one. I have seen comparisons to 2013-14 on here. Nothing wrong with that and that is completely different from saying it is going to happen.

[jaster220]

Didn't see a date on this, but some of the points on the QBO and Solar are interesting enough

 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/

[Thunder98]

Didn't see a date on this, but some of the points on the QBO and Solar are interesting enough

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/

Though, we will likely see a Moderate La Nina instead of a Weak El Nino.

[Niko]

Didn't see a date on this, but some of the points on the QBO and Solar are interesting enough

 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/

Interesting article.

[Niko]

Though, we will likely see a Moderate La Nina instead of a Weak El Nino.

Nobody knows. As we get closer into the Winter months, everything will be more clearer. Right now is more of a guessing game.

[Tom]

Eurasian snow cover is off to a slow start, but will that continue???

 

 

 

 

GEFS are suggesting Eurasia to cool off as Winter shows its face...snow will begin to fall...

 

[Tom]

An abrupt end to Summer up near the N Rockies!  From Fire...to Snow!

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/mso/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png

 

 

 

 

Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
203 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

MTZ006-007-043-132015-
/O.NEW.KMSO.WS.A.0007.170915T0300Z-170915T1800Z/
203 PM MDT Tue Sep 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET...

* Impacts/Timing: A dramatic change in the weather is on the way
as a very cold and wet weather system drives the snow level down
to near 6000 feet overnight Thursday into Friday morning along
with temperatures plummeting 30 to 50 degrees colder compared
to Tuesday (today). Slushy snow accumulations are expected on
the mountainous terrain, trails and dirt roads which may
negatively affect recreation or travel. Additionally, the
transition from very cold rain to snow and the dramatic change
to colder weather will heighten the risk of hypothermia to those
who are not well equipped or prepared for early winter weather
conditions.

* In addition, a mix of smoke and variable visibility throughout
the higher terrain will abruptly change to low visibility and
widespread terrain obscurations. Again, it must be emphasized,
this is a HUGE change from the current warm summer recreational
conditions.

* Snow accumulations: 6000 to 7000 feet: 1 to 3 inches. Above 7000
feet: 3 to 6 inches are possible...especially over the highest
peaks.

 

[jaster220]

Though, we will likely see a Moderate La Nina instead of a Weak El Nino.

 

yeah, I saw that, but was too lazy to type it on my Tablet. That's a painfully slow way to communicate

[jaster220]

I suppose you could say that this Summer's departure map is similar to the OFA map, with the northern tier below, and the southern tier MORE below relative to normals. That's where OFA peeps kinda used poor wording imho.

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

With the tropics taking a much needed break from LF threats, and our current pattern so boring, I guess it leaves me no choice but to reminisce about former glory days of winter.

 

I see that back in 2013, as noted, a flip of sorts happened around mid-October. These maps show how the snow cover north of us rapidly filled in, and helped to feed the cold pushes down to our latitude. So that by late October, there was enough cold air aloft to put down a few inches of LES in Van Buren Cnty. I remember the unique sight of Red Maple trees in full bloom with totally white ground underneath. Those leafs are normally long gone by 1st snows, so it's etched in my memory.

 

10-18-13

 

 

 

Just 9 days later..

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

With the tropics taking a much needed break from LF threats, and our current pattern so boring, I guess it leaves me no choice but to reminisce about former glory days of winter.

 

I see that back in 2013, as noted, a flip of sorts happened around mid-October. These maps show how the snow cover north of us rapidly filled in, and helped to feed the cold pushes down to our latitude. So that by late October, there was enough cold air aloft to put down a few inches of LES in Van Buren Cnty. I remember the unique sight of Red Maple trees in full bloom with totally white ground underneath. Those leafs are normally long gone by 1st snows, so it's etched in my memory.

 

10-18-13

 

20131018 nohrsc-depth.jpg

 

Just 9 days later..

 

20131029 nohrsc-depth.jpg

Look what the CFS is showing by Halloween across N.A.???

 

http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2017/09/13/basis00/namk/weas/17103100_1300.gif

[jaster220]

Who's ready for some Obs like this one from Feb '14??

 

I sure am!

 

 

 

How 'bout this for a 7-day graphic (Jan '14)?

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

Didn't see a date on this, but some of the points on the QBO and Solar are interesting enough

 

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/

 

Found. Original post was July 22nd. Latest was August 29th, with an update due in (2) days per this:

 

 

 

 

Interesting article.

 

In this snippit, he's speaking of the winter over in the UK, though we usually share a similar jet-stream driven fate in the Midwest/GL's. Interesting how he paints the over-all solar "back-drop" as less than ideal for a record cold winter. We are on the way down to next minimum (2019-20), and the least solar (i.e. coldest) period lags that by a year or two. Similarly, the warmest temps (2015 peak) lag the same way warmest temps FOLLOW the annual increase in sun angle from spring equinox to the summer solstice when we actually start to lose daylight.

 

 

 

 

 

Again, that's just the solar cycle "big picture". I haven't delved too deeply into the rest of the sun's activity and what potential impacts they may or may not have on our upcoming winter. As I get time I hope to do that.

[jaster220]

One day this warm run of winters will end for me.

 

OK-CD00.tavg.Winter.png

 

Hopefully it starts this year or next.

 

So far this month has behaved pretty much like I've hoped it would so can't be disappointed.

 

Maybe your answer is in here somewhere..

 

 

[NEJeremy]

I'd actually love a mild and snowy winter Love snow, hate the bone chilling cold. 20s and snowy would be perfect with a few mild spells mixed in.

[Niko]

I'd actually love a mild and snowy winter Love snow, hate the bone chilling cold. 20s and snowy would be perfect with a few mild spells mixed in.

I agree. I am not a fan of bitter cold myself. I prefer normally cold weather. I.E, highs in the 20s and lows in the teens and call in a day.

[jaster220]

I agree. I am not a fan of bitter cold myself. I prefer normally cold weather. I.E, highs in the 20s and lows in the teens and call in a day.

Somehow we pulled that off in 2007-08. Even Detroit scored 80+ inches and I don't remember a single bitter stretch. The "just cold enough" air was timed perfectly with every storm. Yeah I'd do that again in a minute

[Minny_Weather]

I live off of bitter cold. I'll take subzero and windy any day!

[Niko]

Somehow we pulled that off in 2007-08. Even Detroit scored 80+ inches and I don't remember a single bitter stretch. The "just cold enough" air was timed perfectly with every storm. Yeah I'd do that again in a minute

I enjoy snowstorms in a normally cold air mass where your hands don't numb up or other parts of your body. Now, cold enough where no mixing occurs that is.

[Niko]

I live off of butter cold. I'll take subzero and windy any day!

I am thinking you like dangerously cold WCF'S!!! 

[Minny_Weather]

I am thinking you like dangerously cold WCF'S!!!

Makes me feel alive!!

[Niko]

Makes me feel alive!!

[Niko]

Somehow we pulled that off in 2007-08. Even Detroit scored 80+ inches and I don't remember a single bitter stretch. The "just cold enough" air was timed perfectly with every storm. Yeah I'd do that again in a minute

I remember that Winter in NYC was awful and I mean awful. Snowfall all Winter if I am correct was somewhere 7.5" or so.

[gabel23]

I'd actually love a mild and snowy winter Love snow, hate the bone chilling cold. 20s and snowy would be perfect with a few mild spells mixed in.

 

I live off of bitter cold. I'll take subzero and windy any day!i

I think both of you would be old enough to remember this; I would take a winter from 2000-2001 with the cold and snow combined with the massive classic blizzards in 2009-2010. Anything like that would spell great news for most of us on this forum; especially us along the missouri river valley!

[gabel23]

Winter is showing it's head in the long range models; that 540 thickness line keeps sneaking it's way across the lower 48. I can't wait to start seeing those wound up snowstorms show up! 

[snowstorm83]

I'm doing my first year at UNL from the deep south. I'm definitely pumped to experience a winter and hope it's not a letdown. I see that last season was the 2nd least snowiest on record so at least that's out of the way, right? Though almost any snow is exciting to me since I'm used to only maybe one measurable snow event a season so I'll be overjoyed even in a relatively lame winter.

[OKwx2k4]

3 of last 9 below, heck if you were batting in the majors you'd have an all-star avg @ .333 But yeah, look at those (3) DECADES of mostly below normal winters!

Yes. I'm ready to get back to the cold cycle again. This warm cycle has lasted over 20 years. It has to end soon.

[OKwx2k4]

So some IL poster on Amwx said he was at "another forum" where every winter is going to be another 2013-14 and everything's over-hyped about the coming winter. People pushed him and he said it was here, lol. Saying how the followers drink the koolaid in here. Too funny.

 

He seems to be rubbing peeps the wrong way when he pops in over there with warminista bias to his comments. Ofc, he could be posting under another name here, but I don't see any regular posters in here that would match that profile. Some traditional core winter posters are ready to have him gone, I know that..

This happens to be the best forum I've ever been a part of. I post in there as well in the OK/AR/KS/MO group but I really prefer this group even though I'm a bit out of place.

[OKwx2k4]

Maybe your answer is in here somewhere..

 

20140213 Kasim on Solar Cycles.PNG

Don't know but I cannot wait.

 

 

Sorry for the chain of posts. I've been away for a few days. Lots of good posts to read through.

[Tom]

I'm doing my first year at UNL from the deep south. I'm definitely pumped to experience a winter and hope it's not a letdown. I see that last season was the 2nd least snowiest on record so at least that's out of the way, right? Though almost any snow is exciting to me since I'm used to only maybe one measurable snow event a season so I'll be overjoyed even in a relatively lame winter.

Welcome to the Forum!  We do have quite a few posters in the central Plains and I believe you will enjoy this forum.  Looking forward to an exciting Winter season ahead!

[Tom]

Very encouraging signs out in today's JMA seasonal which is indicating a similar -NAO look the CFSv2 is flashing for October as the new pattern evolves.  Looks like a stout -AO block develops in November and the PAC jet continues to drive storms into the west and a very wet look transpires.  By December, as the seasonal jet intensifies, you can see a typical La-Nina pattern set in with a ridge in the SW & SE.  Northern stream dominant pattern with a 500mb flow that would encourage cutters.

 

 

[Tom]

JMA Dec-Feb outlook...what I'll be looking for in Oct/Nov is how strong that ridge in the south & east develops.  Like last year, those farthest south will see huge swings back and forth if this transpires.  Will need the blocking to push any storm track south.

 

 

 

 

 

Another trend I'm seeing is the moderate La Nina it's starting to see across the central PAC...looks like it is trending more central based as well...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R90_1/Y201709.D0800_gls.png

[Tom]

Last, but not least, the JAMSTEC is in and it has sided with the CFSv2/JMA that we will see a moderate/central-based La Nina during the Autumn months.  Although, by December, the SST configuration looks weak and I don't think I agree.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2017.1sep2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif

 

 

Moving along, you can see that Winter hits fast and hard in the PAC NW/Rockies/Upper Midwest.  There is highly likelihood that we will see an active northern stream and a very active storm track across the central CONUS.  We are starting to see model consistency (finally), of which, we have not seen over the past couple months.  Personally, I feel there is a high probability a borderline moderate Nina is in the works.

 

As for precip & temps, this would be a loaded pattern for CO Low's/Cutters beginning late Autumn and throughout the winter.  

 

Autumn...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2017.1sep2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2017.1sep2017.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Winter...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2018.1sep2017.gif

[NEJeremy]

Makes me feel alive!!

until you're dead because your car breaks down and you have no heat To me really hot is uncomfortable, really cold just hurts your body down to the bone. I'll sweat all day long vs having that pain in your bones and the stinging on your skin.

[Minny_Weather]

I think both of you would be old enough to remember this; I would take a winter from 2000-2001 with the cold and snow combined with the massive classic blizzards in 2009-2010. Anything like that would spell great news for most of us on this forum; especially us along the missouri river valley!

I lived in California for 2000-2001 and Houston for 2009-10. I study Lincoln climatology day and night though so I know how awesome those Winters were.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm doing my first year at UNL from the deep south. I'm definitely pumped to experience a winter and hope it's not a letdown. I see that last season was the 2nd least snowiest on record so at least that's out of the way, right? Though almost any snow is exciting to me since I'm used to only maybe one measurable snow event a season so I'll be overjoyed even in a relatively lame winter.

Welcome fellow Lincoln member! Last year was my first year at UNL and I wanted to experience a real Winter. Ha. We have quite a few Nebraska members such as me, NEJeremy, NebraskaWX, Gabel, CentralNebWeather, and that one dude from Grand Island (Don't kill me for not remembering your name). Hope you enjoy it here!

[Tom]

Winter is making its way down into the lower 48....

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/tfx/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png

[Tom]

The CFSv2 weeklies are looking real interesting as we finish off the month of Sept and head into October.  It has that blocky look and lots of troughs across our sub forum.  I'm starting to inch towards the idea of early season snows across the Upper Midwest/Lakes.

[Minny_Weather]

The CFSv2 weeklies are looking real interesting as we finish off the month of Sept and head into October.  It has that blocky look and lots of troughs across our sub forum.  I'm starting to inch towards the idea of early season snows across the Upper Midwest/Lakes.

Looking at the EPS weeklies, I wouldn't be surprised if October snow got as far down as N IA. Trough after trough and cold anomaly after cold anomaly.

[NEJeremy]

I think both of you would be old enough to remember this; I would take a winter from 2000-2001 with the cold and snow combined with the massive classic blizzards in 2009-2010. Anything like that would spell great news for most of us on this forum; especially us along the missouri river valley!

I'm old enough, but I was actually going to school up in S. Dakota in 2000-01. 2009-2010 was amazing. One other winter that was that good that I remember off the top of my head was the winter of 96-97 I believe. I remember having 2-3 feet of snow on the ground where I lived up in S. Dakota and I could jump off the back part of my garage into the drifts that were up to my head.