Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estacadadungeon -100/+100 Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 16-22%How did you come up with those odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 How did you come up with those odds?Satan mixed with Magic 8 Ball Nah, based on past few runs showing possible chilly trough, thickness perhaps sub525. I wouldn't get too excited though as flat ridging potential may spoil that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Is there a good mapping app that gives elevation? Say I type in an address and it gives me the elevation for that particular spot? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 6 - Poops! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Both 00z GFS/CMC have really watered down the first trough on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 7 Amplify Aleutian ridge, amplify! I know you won't, because you're a friggin bu'hole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Or the next 15, unless we see a couple shifts in the modeling. The point was to illustrate that we're close to a classic pattern setup, but there's one main thing that probably needs to happen first.Seems pretty clear. What we've seen recently is pretty classic false start noise. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 That nagging 992mb low riding the top of the Aleutian ridge is why it's not amplifying. Compared to those teaser 18z, 00z runs yesterday the energy was held back further west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 9 ... Well, for what it's worth the Gulf of Alaska ridge is more amplified than 18z.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Seems pretty clear. What we've seen recently is pretty classic false start noise.5 yard penalty...repeat the down? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 We need the ole Kamchatka bomb to develop around day 4-5 that would really pump up the ridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 10 Decent.... Far better than the 00z CMC = Puking barf vomit fest 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 00Z CMC doesn't agree, at least at day 10. Quite different from the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Classic backdoor modified blast into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. Massive cold pool develops near Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 That BLOCK though sets up around Day 11 just a tad too far east.... Progression seems logical. I see day 6-7 a 180kt jet extension moves off Asia which could certainly spin up a deep low/Kamchatka bomb holding energy further west and promote massive downstream blocking. We shall see.... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121000/264/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z GEFS running... I'm sure it's just another teaser GFS run 00z ECMWF in 34 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 10 Decent.... Far better than the 00z CMC = Puking barf vomit fest 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z GEFS Day 10 if the ridge puts the brakes on right here we'll be okay. IF. WHAT. MAYBE. COULDA. SHOULDA. WOULDA. ALMOSThttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121000/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 11 ridge puts brakes on, evolving into block. Hmmmhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121000/264/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Nice southeast US ridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 The GEFS very very similar to the Op run. Crazy. A lot of potential there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Mossmans house 5 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Brrrrr 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 10 Decent.... Far better than the 00z CMC = Puking barf vomit fest Good look to it. GFS has been trying to bring something around the time frame for a couple of runs (with timing differences). What's missing is a strong high to the north to funnel down cold air for lowland snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 5 yard penalty...repeat the down?Also, #58 and #63 have been declared eligible. Duh... 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Also, #58 and #63 have been declared eligible. Duh...And don't forget, since we are in the last month of the year and we have no timeouts, a 10 day rundown. Christmas is next week! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z GFS 500mb Composite AnalogDay 8-14 MUCH improved pattern. Some really good/cold and snowy years popping up! Correlation score needs work though.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Puyallup Johns house. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 And don't forget, since we are in the last month of the year and we have no timeouts, a 10 day rundown. Christmas is next week!Pete has a habit of blowing through timeouts like he has a million of em. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Pete has a habit of blowing through timeouts like he has a million of em.Yup. That is why when we wake up tomorrow, we had to go 10 days forward to Dec. 20th. Seriously, why can't they hire a guy who is great with time management, situational management, when to challange calls, etc.? Someone to tell him "take the 3 points now, we may need them at the end of the game". So many times they didn't kick the field goal at the end of the 1st half and later on wished they had, or wished they had not blown a time out on an obviously correct ref's call? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 00z ECMWF Day 2http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/048/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 3http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 And don't forget, since we are in the last month of the year and we have no timeouts, a 10 day rundown. Christmas is next week!If we get to New Year's with no action, this place will be going no huddle and an empty backfield. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 4http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 If we get to New Year's with no action, this place will be going no huddle and an empty backfield.We might even see the Waterboy and Kaepernick get some playing time if the situation becomes that dire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 If we get to New Year's with no action, this place will be going no huddle and an empty backfield.That's when we will SCORE!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 10, 2017 Report Share Posted December 10, 2017 Day 5 All eyes on ridge emerging off Japanhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121000/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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