December Weather In the PNW

[MossMan]

I kinda like Lax, nothing like smog and upside down stripped cars decorating the streets below.

That’s why I prefer Burbank! A much more fun landing and take off as well with a short runway and steep climb outs! Less in the way of stripped out cars as well!

[Kayla]

ECMWF is looking pretty darn promising.... Definitely better than the 00z

[MossMan]

Where’s DJ? Did someone forget to tell him that he needed to work this weekend to make up the hours he missed during the week?

[Deweydog]

Where’s DJ? Did someone forget to tell him that he needed to work this weekend to make up the hours he missed during the week?

He's been out all morning installing an engine block heater on his Prius.

[MossMan]

He's been out all morning installing an engine block heater on his Prius.

I guess we will let it slide...this time. Lawn mower...I mean Prius engines deserve to stay warm as well when we get blasted by arctic arcticness

[WeatherArchive]

It feels like artic weather already!  Down to 21F this morning and still frosty!  Yesterday it never got above 39F and dropped real fast as soon as the sun set.

[HighlandExperience]

Landing in Seattle is prettier.

Agreed. Landing into SeaTac with Puge Sound Olympics and cascades one of the best of any major city in US

[Farmboy]

Agreed. Landing into SeaTac with Puge Sound Olympics and cascades one of the best of any major city in US

Ever land in Juneau?

[Deweydog]

Agreed. Landing into SeaTac with Puge Sound Olympics and cascades one of the best of any major city in US

I've never taken off or landed from SeaTac without it being overcast.

 

#timbait

[TT-SEA]

Just got back from Fall City... gorgeous down there.    I was expecting more frost and fog since its like 500 feet away from the Snoqualmie River.   We brought some Christmas presents to the farm where my daughter rides horses.     It felt warmer there than at home because it was dead calm.  

 

[Prairiedog]

Snow storm Christmas Eve!

I'm sure I see a warm nose creeping up the west flanks that will kill my chances of any snow.  That drippy nose kills me 80% of the time.  I'm out towards Estacada.  Killed me last winter when West of me got hammered with 12+" of snow.  I got 3" and it fell when the moisture just about was over.  Not the first time that has happened.  I guess I should be at least happy "so there is a chance" of snow.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I'm sure I see a warm nose creeping up the west flanks that will kill my chances of any snow.  That drippy nose kills me 80% of the time.  I'm out towards Estacada.  Killed me last winter when West of me got hammered with 12+" of snow.  I got 3" and it fell when the moisture just about was over.  Not the first time that has happened.  I guess I should be at least happy "so there is a chance" of snow.

Apparently you have not seen the last few model runs.  

 

Not that any of them are real accurate that far in advance anyway.

[snow_wizard]

I'm beginning to think the GFS is rushing things a bit.  The ECMWF operational and ensemble are really get hung up on the Eastern trough becoming too well entrenched to allow a good pattern here.  We'll see how the next few runs look.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I'm beginning to think the GFS is rushing things a bit.  The ECMWF operational and ensemble are really get hung up on the Eastern trough becoming too well entrenched to allow a good pattern here.  We'll see how the next few runs look.

The GFS did not listen to Phil.

[Gradient Keeper]

Uglyyyyy 12z runs/Ensembles, too progressive.... but it could have been worse I suppose.

 

18z GFS in 33 minutes

[Deweydog]

Progressive retrogression.

[Phil]

Cryptic comment is cryptic.

 

January bust?

Just trolling a bit.

[Phil]

Cable news channels show a very snowy DC this morning.

Not bad for winter’s opening gig.

 

[Phil]

Pattern changes are often rushed, from my perspective. The long range changes are harbingers of what’s to come, but I’m still thinking after Christmas/towards New Years is the target period for the start of the good stuff.

[HighlandExperience]

Ever land in Juneau?

Of course Juneau is amazing, but it’s not a major city

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hate the toyota prius. They barely get better milage than a old geo or old civic lol.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'll be headed to Silver Falls in a bit for a Christmas thing. You should come Andrew.

[Front Ranger]

I hate the toyota prius. They barely get better milage than a old geo or old civic lol.

 

Depends on if you're talking highway or around town.

 

#notapriusdriver

[seattleweatherguy]

Pattern changes are often rushed, from my perspective. The long range changes are harbingers of what’s to come, but I’m still thinking after Christmas/towards New Years is the target period for the start of the good stuff.

So kind of like 2008 where it teased a pattern change for weeks than gave us cold and snow?

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is still on the same track through day 6 at least.

[MossMan]

I hate the toyota prius. They barely get better milage than a old geo or old civic lol.

Much prefer my truck!

Currently 45! Warmer today!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Much prefer my truck!

Currently 45! Warmer today!

Should have kept my F150. I remember driving over Blue Box pass and forgot to put chains on with that one. Was fun.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Much prefer my truck!

Currently 45! Warmer today!

Nice truck. Love the color. Here is mine.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Not a bad chilly shot shown in 9/10 days on the 18z.

 

 

Yeah but that is 10AM, temps in the 30's for Western Washington and Oregon that time of day is not that cold.

[Winterdog]

Yeah but that is 10AM, temps in the 30's for Western Washington and Oregon that time of day is not that cold.

The ridge moves over us a bit later like previous runs. Looks more and more like we will have only a respite between being under a ridge.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Right at the end of the run the 18Z is starting to look interesting.   Ridge over us and BC starts to retrograde and merge with another ridge around the Aleutians. 

[snow_wizard]

Yeah but that is 10AM, temps in the 30's for Western Washington and Oregon that time of day is not that cold.

 

The pattern is decent though.  At any rate if the 18z GFS is right most days over the next two weeks will be below normal.  I sure the look of the pattern way more than the Euro right now.

[snow_wizard]

The ridge moves over us a bit later like previous runs. Looks more and more like we will have only a respite between being under a ridge.

 

As I've said before alternating between cold troughing and riding in the winter is a really cold outcome at the surface.  A big ridge after a blast can keep the surface at freezing and keep any snow on the ground for a long time.

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with 44-26 today.  Pretty chilly.

[TT-SEA]

I ended up with 44-26 today.  Pretty chilly.

 

But warmer... and sunny from the start even there.    

[Winterdog]

Right at the end of the run the 18Z is starting to look interesting.   Ridge over us and BC starts to retrograde and merge with another ridge around the Aleutians.

Interesting at 384 is all we have right now I guess.

[snow_wizard]

But warmer... and sunny from the start even there.    

 

A tad warmer.  It remains to be seen if SEA will be any warmer.  So far 43 is the highest I've seen for them.  Tomorrow should be anywhere from a couple of degrees cooler to a degree warmer or so.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting at 384 is all we have right now I guess.

 

What about the cold trough earlier in the run?

[HighlandExperience]

As I've said before alternating between cold troughing and riding in the winter is a really cold outcome at the surface. A big ridge after a blast can keep the surface at freezing and keep any snow on the ground for a long time.

We just need 2 feet of snow on the ground. Even 6-12 inches on the ground before going under a ridge would be awesome.

[snow_wizard]

Right at the end of the run the 18Z is starting to look interesting.   Ridge over us and BC starts to retrograde and merge with another ridge around the Aleutians. 

 

I think the whole run looks pretty good for week 2.  I just hope it wins out over the Euro.