December Weather In the PNW

[TT-SEA]

00z!!!!!!!! Perform for us!!!!!!!

 

There is a great deal riding on this run!   

[Front Ranger]

Its felt like winter since the beginning of November.  

 

SUBJECTIVE.

[Front Ranger]

That's because its happened every winter for all of your 53 years here. Ridges get stagnant. Its not a surprise.

 

I think next few days might be a little disappointing though.

 

Either way it will be sunny here.

 

Wow, you're really on the Jim warpath tonight.

[TT-SEA]

SUBJECTIVE.

 

Well crap.

 

So was Jim's opinion that tonight feels like winter then.   But I agree with him... its does!  

[TT-SEA]

Wow, you're really on the Jim warpath tonight.

 

Not really.    Just pointing out what the models show.  

 

I go weeks and week without saying anything negative... I say the next couple days might be a little disappointing and now I am on the 'warpath'?

 

Just waiting for something to jump on?   

[DareDuck]

29 degrees out, which is running 2 degrees colder than yesterday. Maybe I can bag a low in the teens tonight. I'm seriously regretting not winterizing my sprinkler system. This fake cold has really overperformed down here.

I don’t remember blowing out sprinklers in the fall in Eugene does that happen there too? Of course I only had a sprinkler system 2 years there and I was in college so I could have been oblivious to our landlord having that done.

[DareDuck]

Plateaued at 21 for the last few hours as freezing fog settles in. Enough to squeeze out a few flurries.

[Front Ranger]

Not really.    Just pointing out what the models show.  

 

I don't say anything negative for weeks and weeks... I say the next couple days might be a little disappointing and now I am on the 'warpath'?

 

Just waiting for me to say anything?   

 

No, but it sure looked like you were just waiting for him to say something. With bated breath!     

[snow_wizard]

00z!!!!!!!! Perform for us!!!!!!!

 

It will probably be decent to some extent.  Even the EPS and GFS ensembles have shown a good pattern developing during week two.

 

BTW I forgot to mention the last 4 CFS runs have all shown it getting cold somewhere in the late Dec to mid Jan time frame.  Almost every run the past few days have been good.

[snow_wizard]

No, but it sure looked like you were just waiting for him to say something. With bated breath!     

 

He's mad because I was right about it getting cold at SEA.

[TT-SEA]

No, but it sure looked like you were just waiting for him to say something. With bated breath!     

 

Ahhhhh... no.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

 

Day 3

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120900/072/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

He's mad because I was right about it getting cold at SEA.

 

Are you serious?   I am mad?    

 

I thought it was a discussion.   No surprise today at all.   Always shown to be the coolest day.    Still got up to 50 in Seattle and here.    I made a post around noon that SEA could be stuck in the 30s today with the fog holding tough.   You should go back and review the day's posts.   Also posted some really cool fog scenes from Seattle this morning.

 

We will see what happens tomorrow and Sunday.    Ridges do tend to stagnant over time.   Its an absolute given in the winter in the PNW and to be expected.   But models do show mixing rebounding tomorrow.      

[Jesse]

He's mad because I was right about it getting cold at SEA.

Yup. It gets so old.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120900/096/500h_anom.na.png

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 28 in Monmouth

[TT-SEA]

Yup. It gets so old.

 

This is so stupid.  Everyone knows that ridges get colder the longer they sit over us in the winter.    Why would I be mad a predicting the obvious?   The SEA NWS ran headlines on it all week... so did the Seattle Times.    The theme everywhere was its going to get colder and foggier as the week goes on.   

 

I am just saying the models have shown mixing rebounding a little over the weekend.    That is all.   Tough to predict fine details.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Front Ranger]

This is so stupid. Everyone knows that ridges get colder the longer they sit over us in the winter. Why would I be mad a predicting the obvious? The SEA NWS ran headlines on it all week... so did the Seattle Times. The theme everywhere was its going to get colder and foggier as the week goes on.

 

I am just saying the models have shown mixing rebounding a little over the weekend. That is all. Tough to predict fine details.

It was just how you reacted to Jim being excited about the cold. How you always do.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[MossMan]

Down to 30!

[TT-SEA]

It was just how you reacted to Jim being excited about the cold. How you always do.

 

He has reacted many times in the last few months about cold... I have not said anything negative.    Always?  

[TT-SEA]

The WRF does show an area of colder temps tomorrow around the South Sound where it was today as well.   

 

The rest of the area does look warmer tomorrow.    Except Portland where the outflow looks quite cold.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Guest El nina]

The WRF does show an area of colder temps tomorrow around the South Sound where it was today as well.

 

The rest of the area does look warmer tomorrow. Except Portland where the outflow looks quite cold.

 

Posting that map REALLY makes me dislike you.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge flattens much quicker over us being shoved south and the initial trough is not as deep or cold as a result.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He has reacted many times in the last few months about cold... I have not said anything negative.    Always?  

You mad bro? need a cigarette?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[TT-SEA]

Day 8

 

We need a comparison to the 18Z run... which is going to be reality based on my order. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 - somewhat similar to 18z so far

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120900/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

31/29 spread so far today in Omak. Dynamic stagnation.

[High Desert Mat!]

Vogies, Vogies, Vogies. What will we ever do.

[snow_wizard]

Day 9 - somewhat similar to 18z so far

 

 

Not hard to imagine a good outcome there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

31/29 spread so far today in Omak. Dynamic stagnation.

I drove into Pateros one cold night and the steam from the factors was making it snow. Also that little area can get pretty snowy. Didn't you live around there?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120900/240/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

Posting that map REALLY makes me dislike you.

 

The WRF is terrible with inversions.  It was way too warm today.

[TT-SEA]

This is a classic retrogression signal... I am starting to really believe the week of Christmas is going to be good.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day 9 - somewhat similar to 18z so far

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120900/216/500h_anom.na.png

Ridge by the Alluetians looks stronger than 18Z

[Dave]

I don’t remember blowing out sprinklers in the fall in Eugene does that happen there too? Of course I only had a sprinkler system 2 years there and I was in college so I could have been oblivious to our landlord having that done.

The guy that installed the sprinkler system said that there generally won't be any problems unless it gets into the teens for an extended period of time, usually low teens.  It was installed the summer after the Dec 2013 -10 cold snap.  I usually don't winterize unless there is some serious cold forecast.  My pipes and most of my friends' pipes froze in Dec 2013.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120900/264/500h_anom.na.png