December Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Portland crushed their January curse last year.

 

And Seattle had lots of snow in January 2012.

 

We've knocked some chimps off the PNW's back in recent years, but still need a regionally cold and snowy January to take out the 500 lb gorilla. 

[Phil]

Portland crushed their January curse last year.

 

And Seattle had lots of snow in January 2012.

By 1950-1980 standards, though? Heck, I don't see anything preventing the Puget Sound region from pulling off another 19th century behemoth like 1880 (at some point in the future..not saying it will be this year).

 

If Brownsville, TX can smash early December snowfall records, then there's no reason SEA couldn't smash January snowfall records. The Mid-Atlantic/NE regions have also been destroying snowfall records that data back to the 19th century.

 

The degradation of PNW winters actually has little to do with the climate warming itself, when you really look at it. It's just been an unfortunate shift in circulation arising from changes in the tropical west-Pacific.

[TT-SEA]

SEA jumped up 6 degrees in the last hour.   Now at 42.   

 

I was thinking they might have a chance to stay in the 30s with the fog hanging tough down there. 

 

UW in Seattle is now up to 49.    

[Front Ranger]

A hell of a lot more than Mt Washington!!

 

I dunno. -16 wind chill there right now!

[ShawniganLake]

I hate all trees equally.

[ShawniganLake]

Calm winds and clear skies here. 48F. Everything is frozen solid in the shade though.

[TT-SEA]

I hate all trees equally.

 

 

I love all trees!

 

Treeism is wrong.   

[Front Ranger]

I hate all trees equally.

 

Even Christmas trees? Covered in snow?  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I love all trees!

 

Treeism is wrong.   

I love all the different species on my eastern Wa property. Douglas fir, Silver fir, Ponderosa pine, White pine, Tamarack, Lodgepole pine and Aspen. 

[Geos]

Here's d15:

 

 

So with an luck it will be colder for Christmas if that pattern sets up by then. 

[Jesse]

SEA is definitely on track for a cold day... stuck in the fog which is hanging tough in the South Sound. It was only 36 there at noon.

 

Its up to 46 at UW in Seattle where the fog has all cleared out. Its up to 48 here. Today was shown to be the coolest day of this ridge.

 

 

I’m not sure what mechanisms would be in place to warm things up tomorrow and beyond. It seems like this time of year things will stay pretty cold with a ridge until a system finally moves in and mixes us out. Especially once low level cold becomes established in the east side, which it now has.

[TT-SEA]

I’m not sure what mechanisms would be in place to warm things up tomorrow and beyond. It seems like this time of year things will stay pretty cold with a ridge until a system finally moves in and mixes us out. Especially once low level cold becomes established in the east side, which it now has.

 

I am not exactly sure either... but the models have been showing that (including the ECMWF) and have done pretty well.   The WRF does show less fog coverage and better mixing over the weekend.    

[Geos]

SEA jumped up 6 degrees in the last hour.   Now at 42.   

 

I was thinking they might have a chance to stay in the 30s with the fog hanging tough down there. 

 

UW in Seattle is now up to 49.    

 

One of the few times it's been warmer at my location vs. SEA. Up to 46 now. 

[Jesse]

I am not exactly sure either... but the models have been showing that (including the ECMWF) and have done pretty well. The WRF does show less fog coverage and better mixing over the weekend.

We’ll see. At least down here once the cold pool gets entrenched it would take more than the ridge getting shifted around a little to mix it out.

[TT-SEA]

We’ll see. At least down here once the cold pool gets entrenched it would take more than the ridge getting shifted around a little to mix it out.

Maybe the Portland area will be different. I have just been looking at the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

50 at UW in Seattle but only 41 at SEA at 2 p.m.

[Prairiedog]

Awesome spot!!

Looks like either a bald eagle nest or redtail nest on the left and a bunch of heron nests.  Pretty darn cool. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like either a bald eagle nest or redtail nest on the left and a bunch of heron nests.  Pretty darn cool. 

 

It is a Bald Eagle nest on the left. There is actually a bald eagle in the tree right now near the nest. The others are heron nests, there is a heron rookery on the island (It is an island name McClane Island in the Willamette River. ). 

 

The river gets low enough in the summer to wade out to the island, summer of 2016 the water was only about waist deep at the deepest, this summer I had to swim about 30 feet, as the river was a bit higher and also the channel structure had changed. We actually made a company flag and hoisted it over on the island along with a guest book for the kayakers who sometimes explore the island to sign.

[Prairiedog]

It is a Bald Eagle nest on the left. There is actually a bald eagle in the tree right now near the nest. The others are heron nests, there is a heron rookery on the island (It is an island name McClane Island in the Willamette River. ). 

 

The river gets low enough in the summer to wade out to the island, summer of 2016 the water was only about waist deep at the deepest, this summer I had to swim about 30 feet, as the river was a bit higher and also the channel structure had changed. We actually made a company flag and hoisted it over on the island along with a guest book for the kayakers who sometimes explore the island to sign.

There's the same set up across from the mouth of the Clackamas River.  Both a baldy nest and a heron rookery.  Sometimes when we're springer fishing guys will catch chubs or squawfish and throw them back and the eagles will fly down between the boats and grab them.  You have a great spot!

[ShawniganLake]

18z is going places in the long range. Alert status.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

DRUNK UCLE ALERT

[Jesse]

18z is going places in the long range. Alert status.

 

Somebody wake Rob up!!!

[Kayla]

18z is going places in the long range. Alert status.

 

There's that 20th-23rd period showing up again...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG WOW. THE GOODS FOR CHRISTMAS!

[Jesse]

DRUNK UNCLE ALERT

 

Christmas party is that good huh?

[stuffradio]

18z is going places in the long range. Alert status.

North pole? Alert Sinter Klaus!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

DRUNK UCLE ALERT

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z looks like it wants to keep the cold around for awhile too!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snow from Everett to Northern California. SCORE!!!!!!!

 

This would be a wonderful present for all of us

[TT-SEA]

Alright... I am going to go ahead and lock in the 18Z run.  

 

Is everyone OK with that?   There is no way to undo this action... it will become reality then!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Christmas party is that good huh?

 

Unblock me on FB for immediate invite.

 

That is a top tier airmass depicted. How much makes it to our area who knows, but sub 498 Thickness into E. Washington. Holy Cow!

[Timmy]

Just changed to all snow here in Charlotte

[Jesse]

Unblock me on FB for immediate invite.

 

That is a top tier airmass depicted. How much makes it to our area who knows, but sub 498 Thickness into E. Washington. Holy Cow!

Models are probably jumping the gun a little. But still nice to see some fun depicted.

[stuffradio]

Alright... I am going to go ahead and lock in the 18Z run.  

 

Is everyone OK with that?   There is no way to undo this action... it will become reality then!  

Only if you bought your snow thrower machine already.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just changed to all snow here in Charlotte

 

That's awesome. Post pics if it sticks. Never been to Charlotte, but I hear it is a nice place. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looked at the 18z and ordered a pallet of rice from costco. It will get dangerous.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The 18z looks like it wants to keep the cold around for awhile too!

SE ridge is there too.  I think Flatiron said that the perception is that the SE ridge helps keep the pattern more stable.

[Front Ranger]

SE ridge is there too. I think Flatiron said that the perception is that the SE ridge helps keep the pattern more stable.

It's not really that the SE ridge locks the pattern in itself, but it tends to be a sign of a more locked in, stable pattern.

[Deweydog]

00z in a few hours and several minutes!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It's not really that the SE ridge locks the pattern in itself, but it tends to be a sign of a more locked in, stable pattern.

 

Yeah, thanks for the correction.

 

So far the ensembles not looking as dramatic.