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December Weather In the PNW

BLI snowman

By BLI snowman
in West of the Rockies

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Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

Somebody wake Rob up!!!

I was gone. Lol. I got home and looked at the 18z and immediately had to change my pants. Fun to look at, but not to be believed unless we're within 4-5 days. However, that massive blast and pattern potential seems possible based on Phil's outlook for the period near Christmas to New Years.

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ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum.

ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

28 with clear blue skies here this morning. Looks like about 6-7” of snow survived the melting and compaction yesterday. Didn’t have time to take any photos really but a took a couple as I went out t

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I actually haven't been hanging onto any models. I just post the links and give brief analysis. Of course I don't have to do so for every 12z, 00z run, but who would take over? I enjoy doing so. My en

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van city Community Regular

van city

Posted
Posted

I was gone. Lol. I got home and looked at the 18z and immediately had to change my pants. Fun to look at, but not to be believed unless we're within 4-5 days. However, that massive blast and pattern potential seems possible based on Phil's outlook for the period near Christmas to New Years.

Phil for Mayor!

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van city Community Regular

van city

Posted
Posted

I was gone. Lol. I got home and looked at the 18z and immediately had to change my pants. Fun to look at, but not to be believed unless we're within 4-5 days. However, that massive blast and pattern potential seems possible based on Phil's outlook for the period near Christmas to New Years.

The Snow Wizzard will have to change his pants when he sees this.

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted

That's awesome. Post pics if it sticks. Never been to Charlotte, but I hear it is a nice place.

Nothing pic worthy yet. Just a dusting in grass and on cars. Break in the action now. More to come though. Pretty incredible front spanning much of the central and east US. Has a different feel than snow we get back at home for sure.
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Winterdog Veteran

Winterdog

Posted
Posted

Speaking of the ensembles, where are the operational values on the graph?  There are no green lines on the Seattle ensembles graph that drop below the -10 mark yet the GFS 18Z operational definitely shows Seattle down to at least -15 by the end of the run.  I've noticed this before.  Anyone have an answer?  Anyone give a crap?

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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

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Sounds like a buffet line for the eagles - free fish and baby herons.

Bald eagles are opportunists.  Not nearly as tough as a Golden Eagle.  And they will eat carrion as well.  They certainly will eat baby herons that aren't street wise yet.  When cold and snow hits the mountains especially, they will congregate in the valley on the rivers even though there is already a good resident population.  I see them on  the Clackamas daily when I'm running the river fishing. There was a time when you never saw a baldy locally. 

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Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
Posted

HR 384 analysis (because, why not?): Negative temps in Canada/Inner NW, upper single digits/low teens in Western WA and OR, and 850s at least -15c for Christmas Eve morning.

 

Brrrr...

 

gfs_T2m_nwus_53.png

 

Palm killing cold right there. 

That would be impressive to see single digits around here. 

 

850mb for that time.

 

gfs_T850_nwus_53.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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DareDuck Mentor

DareDuck

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Two hours above freezing today under sunny skies. Already dropped to 23 here, -5 compared to yesterday when we reached 10. Maybe single digits tonight? Some ridge...

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Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

I can happen. I would like to see 10 degrees and a 50mph north wind like in 1989 and 1990.

A Christmas miracle...Would sure love to see that verify!!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Winterdog Veteran

Winterdog

Posted
Posted

Going to be some legit excitement as the 0z’s come out tonight! Currently down to freezing here already.

 

 

Had a 39/24 day today and sitting at 32 now as well.  It's going to take several runs showing cold before I'll bite but it's fun to look at for sure.

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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Posted

Had a 39/24 day today and sitting at 32 now as well. It's going to take several runs showing cold before I'll bite but it's fun to look at for sure.

Much more fun to look at than the endless ridging runs of the past few days for sure! Let’s hope this becomes a trend.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

This inversion has certainly taken on a life of its own now.  SEA plunged from a high of 52 yeaterday to 43 today.  They also got their first freeze with a low of 29.  The weekend looks good for more of the same...perhaps even colder than today in some places.  I managed a 41-26 spread today.  This will be nice padding for the incredibly cold averages we are going to see a bit down the road.

 

I have not had a shred of doubt about this winter in several weeks.  The boxes are all checked.

 

All of the models are now advertising tanking PNA during week two.  Very exciting!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

6 years ago.

 

We did have the big snow in February last winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Doesn’t count. Warmed up to quick.

 

I still enjoyed it.  Last winter was also really cold.  The first time I've seen Lake Meridian freeze over since I've lived near there.  The interesting thing is we have always had this battle going on between Seattle and Portland with winter snowfalls.  Sometimes we kick their butts and sometimes they kick ours.  We are due to win a few.  The one month Seattle is miles ahead on is November.  I have also noticed Portland normally beats Seattle for snow during warm ENSO cold waves.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Already down to freezing here tonight.  Certainly feels like winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I just ate a large pizza. Feels like winter. 

 

You lost me on this one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

This inversion has certainly taken on a life of its own now.  SEA plunged from a high of 52 yeaterday to 43 today.  They also got their first freeze with a low of 29.  The weekend looks good for more of the same...perhaps even colder than today in some places.  I managed a 41-26 spread today.  This will be nice padding for the incredibly cold averages we are going to see a bit down the road.

 

I have not had a shred of doubt about this winter in several weeks.  The boxes are all checked.

 

All of the models are now advertising tanking PNA during week two.  Very exciting!

 

 

No idea what this means.    Taken on a life of its own?    Hyperbole?   ;)   

 

Its been very sunny this week.   I was thinking the Seattle area might be socked in for a couple days at least.    It has not been a very impressive inversion for a time of year with the lowest sun angle.  

 

Today was shown as the coolest day on the WRF and ECMWF all week.   Mixing should improve tomorrow around the Sound.   

 

Its been windy here for 3 days and still going... 50 here today.     Also was 50 at UW in Seattle.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

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Posted

29 degrees out, which is running 2 degrees colder than yesterday.  Maybe I can bag a low in the teens tonight.  I'm seriously regretting not winterizing my sprinkler system.  This fake cold has really overperformed down here.

 

I had a feeling this was going to tighten the screws on us.  Such a long duration and we lose more energy than we gain from the sun every day at this point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

I had a feeling this was going to tighten the screws on us. Such a long duration and we lose more energy than we gain from the sun every day at this point.

That's because its happened every winter for all of your 53 years here. Ridges get stagnant. Its not a surprise.

 

I think next few days might be a little disappointing though.

 

Either way it will be sunny here. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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