December Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

Yes... Matt has never called us out. He called you out today as well but you vehemently protested that assessment. Denial.

My point stands.

 

And you’ve got to admit him comparing me to you is pretty low.

[TT-SEA]

My point stands.

 

And you’ve got to admit him comparing me to you is pretty low.

 

No... he is usually spot on with most things.    Including his assessment of you.  

 

I am definitely challenging Jim's prediction for tomorrow and Sunday.   I don't think it will continue to trend colder.     

 

Portland will be pretty chilly with cold outflow through the Gorge.   And places like Tacoma and Federal Way and probably Covington will be the cool spots up here with limited mixing due to the angle of the flow.     SEA is a wild card... right on the edge of the dead zone.   But I think it will be warmer there tomorrow.   

[Jesse]

No... he is usually spot on with most things. Including his assessment of you.

 

I am definitely challenging Jim's assessment about tomorrow and Sunday. I don't think it will continue to trend colder.

 

Portland will be pretty chilly with cold outflow through the Gorge. And places like Tacoma and Federal Way and probably Covington will be the cool spots up here with limited mixing due to the angle of the flow. SEA is a wild card... right on the edge of the dead zone. But I think it will be warmer there tomorrow.

That I can be like you sometimes? The fact that that is my version of getting “called out” sort of says it all.

[TT-SEA]

That I can be like you sometimes? The fact that that is my version of getting “called out” sort of says it all.

 

No... he says were are basically twins.  But I also take that as a compliment.   I like you!   You are very intelligent.  

[ShawniganLake]

I find it interesting how it can be in the upper 40s in the afternoon and everything in the shade stays frozen and covered in frost this time of year. But if it’s cloudy and mid to upper 30s the frost would melt off quickly.

[TT-SEA]

I find it interesting how it can be in the upper 40s in the afternoon and everything in the shade stays frozen and covered in frost this time of year. But if it’s cloudy and mid to upper 30s the frost would melt off quickly.

 

I have noticed that many times and it always perplexes me.    It is so counter-intuitive.    But I think clouds are like a blanket... it evens everything out.   Dewpoint also plays a role.  

[bainbridgekid]

I find it interesting how it can be in the upper 40s in the afternoon and everything in the shade stays frozen and covered in frost this time of year. But if it’s cloudy and mid to upper 30s the frost would melt off quickly.

Low dew points do incredible things for frost.

 

Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one.

[TT-SEA]

Low dew points do incredible things for frost.

 

Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one.

 

That makes sense.   

 

Low dewpoints also do incredible things for snow cover.  

[ShawniganLake]

Low dew points do incredible things for frost.

 

Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one.

I was wondering about the solar radiation on a cloudy day. I think that makes sense.

[Guest El nina]

No... he says were are basically twins. But I also take that as a compliment. I like you! You are very intelligent.

He's drunk!

[Deweydog]

He's drunk!

I suspect he's also an uncle.

[snow_wizard]

Nice ensemble improvement tonight.  It looks like 7 members drop to -10 or lower on the 850s.

[MossMan]

I have noticed that many times and it always perplexes me. It is so counter-intuitive. But I think clouds are like a blanket... it evens everything out. Dewpoint also plays a role.

I also notice the lower DP’s makes it feel colder even inside the house. The house at 68 feels colder than when it’s 68 with higher DP’s. Makes no sense but even my wife notices it.

[Jesse]

No... he says were are basically twins. But I also take that as a compliment. I like you! You are very intelligent.

I like you too. I also take it as a compliment in a way.

 

You do have an obsession with Jim being miserable, though. And I have an obsession with your obsession with Jim being miserable. So I guess that’s one thing we have in common. The secondary obsession only exists with the original though.

[snow_wizard]

Low dew points do incredible things for frost.

 

Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one.

 

I'm 95% you are right.

[TT-SEA]

New 00Z ECMWF shows stronger winds tomorrow for the entire Seattle area and temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than today for most places.

 

It shows around 51 in Seattle.   But mid to upper 40s around the South Sound with lighter wind.

[Deweydog]

I'm 95% you are right.

What would the 5% be?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

 

Day 3

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/072/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

I like you too. I also take it as a compliment in a way.

 

You do have an obsession with Jim being miserable, though. And I have an obsession with your obsession with Jim being miserable. So I guess that’s one thing we have in common. The secondary obsession only exists with the original though.

 

I do not.  I have been totally on board with him this fall.   I have not challenged any of his thoughts for this winter since he returned to the forum in late summer.   Not once.   And in fact, I have expressed agreement on many occasions.

 

I challenge Jim at times when I think he might not be paying attention to the models.    That usually happens when he is over-giddy so it might seem like I want him to be miserable.  But I really don't.   Jim and I agree on what is preferable weather much more than we disagree.     We both hate our long, wet springs and we both love our dry summers and we both love cold and snow and anything but warm rain in the winter.  

 

Chances are... if Jim is miserable with the weather then I am miserable as well.     

[Jesse]

I also notice the lower DP’s makes it feel colder even inside the house. The house at 68 feels colder than when it’s 68 with higher DP’s. Makes no sense but even my wife notices it.

 

It makes sense. Skin is sensitive to evaporative cooling.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/096/500h_anom.na.png

 

[bainbridgekid]

I also notice the lower DP’s makes it feel colder even inside the house. The house at 68 feels colder than when it’s 68 with higher DP’s. Makes no sense but even my wife notices it.

Makes sense to me.

 

Think about how much warmer an 80 degree humid day feels than a dry one at the same temperature.

 

I'd say around 60 degrees is when higher humidity starts feeling warmer. In the 40's or lower it definitely feels colder with higher humidity.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/096/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

That tiny little cutoff low is hilarious.

[stuffradio]

What would the 5% be?

Margin of error.

[Gradient Keeper]

That tiny little cutoff low is hilarious.

Yeah, he's a lil bu'hole

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

[TT-SEA]

My people on the ground in Atlanta report some decent snow accumulation today...

 

 

 

[stuffradio]

My people on the ground in Atlanta report some decent snow accumulation today...

 

 

How much do you pay your people? Hopefully more than 0.

[ShawniganLake]

My people on the ground in Atlanta report some decent snow accumulation today...

 

 

Looks decent. Is that a little palm tree?

[TT-SEA]

Looks decent. Is that a little palm tree?

 

No idea.   I have never been to this person's house there.  He grew up in Minnesota and moved to Atlanta about 15 years ago.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/144/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Deweydog]

Decent marine push signal for Thursday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

Aleutian ridge much flatter than on the GFS. We'll see how day 8-10 unfold.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 not bad. Aleutian ridge emerging, no Greenland block. Flat ridge, Kona..

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/192/500h_anom.na.png

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF says precip returns on Thursday evening... ending the dry streak at 10 days.   

[ShawniganLake]

No idea. I have never been to this person's house there. He grew up in Minnesota and moved to Atlanta about 15 years ago.

Haha. I was totally joking.

 

30F here. After a high of 47F. Probably heading for a low of 28 or 29, assuming we stay above the fog here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Day 7

 

Aleutian ridge much flatter than on the GFS. We'll see how day 8-10 unfold.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

Sure is nice seeing this show up again and again.

[TT-SEA]

Latest home page graphic from the SEA NWS.   They have been running comical headlines all week warning of stagnation and fog.   

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 sure is looking a lot like the GFS

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/216/500h_anom.na.png

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks pretty good.   Its certainly on board with the overall theme.     Of course it only goes out to 12/18 right now so the good stuff would still be just out of range.