December Weather In the PNW

[umadbro]

Rob still counts down the model runs we're already aware of.

 

Keep it up Rob!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM ensembles show 850s dip nicely around mid-month with a nice little cluster of -8 to -10c near the 22nd.

December 20th - 23rd

[luvssnow_spokane]

Euro hour 192.... hmmm

 

[BLI snowman]

Some food for thought next winter.

 

1. It's an 8-9 winter (they are almost always great)

2. Good chance for cold ENSO

3. Good chance for plus QBO

4. We will be in a deep solar minimum

5. Very good chance of a major volcanic eruption playing into things

 

If all of these happen the chances are very high for a great one.

 

I think there's a decent chance of neutral ENSO as this weak Nina breaks down. Remains to be seen whether it's slightly negative or slightly positive.

 

Point 1 is mere superstition and Point 5 is extremely speculative at this point, and there's generally a 12-18 month lag for volcanic cooling.

 

Remember, if 2017-18 does turn out as good as you think it will, we'll be operating on borrowed time by next winter. Three straight regionally good winters is a pretty tall order.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 swing and a miss

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern progression overall is promising though.

[Bryant]

You know the weather is shitty when we have this much analysis on hour 384 model runs

[TT-SEA]

Day 10 swing and a miss

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120800/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

 

It looks better on Tropical Tidbits.    If you run the loop... the 00Z ECMWF looks like its heading in a great direction at day 10.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

It looks better on Tropical Tidbits.    If you run the loop... the 00Z ECMWF looks like its heading in a great direction at day 10.

 

Oh yeah the pattern progression is very good. Matter of time

[TT-SEA]

Oh yeah the pattern progression is very good. Matter of time

 

You said swing and a miss... but it looks like the pitch is still on the way on the 00Z ECMWF and there is still a chance to hit this out of the park around Christmas. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snowing at the Alamo!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently sitting at 29. Eugene down to 26 on the hour. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing at the Alamo!

 

One of my college buddies works at UTSA, was pretty stoked about the snow chances. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You said swing and a miss... but it looks like the pitch is still on the way on the 00Z ECMWF and there is still a chance to hit this out of the park around Christmas. 

 

That would be a walk-off ultimate grand slam in the bottom of the 9th.  Down 3, win it with a GS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A PDX area met who posts here occasionally, posted on FB today that he sees decent potential in the Dec 25 - Jan 10 period.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

One of my college buddies works at UTSA, was pretty stoked about the snow chances. 

 

UTSA just sent me jersey #201 of 351 for my collection to raise awareness for epilepsy through college hoops.  Good people there.

 

Really hope somebody gets a pic of The Alamo with snow on it tomorrow morning if it's still there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

UTSA just sent me jersey #201 of 351 for my collection to raise awareness for epilepsy through college hoops.  Good people there.

 

Really hope somebody gets a pic of The Alamo with snow on it tomorrow morning if it's still there.

 

That's pretty cool. The Roadrunners or something like that I think? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That's pretty cool. The Roadrunners or something like that I think? 

 

Yup, in Conference USA.  Just got the Rice Owls from Houston as well. I post when I get the jerseys on twitter.

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing at the Alamo!

We better get blasted

[Phil]

Snow and palm trees just don't mix.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

You said swing and a miss... but it looks like the pitch is still on the way on the 00Z ECMWF and there is still a chance to hit this out of the park around Christmas. 

 

Looks like there's pretty broad consensus that it will evolve from a pattern with a low likelihood of producing a blast to one of our class pre-blast patterns. It could still fall apart, but the timing of this pattern progression couldn't be much better.

[Front Ranger]

Really hope somebody gets a pic of The Alamo with snow on it tomorrow morning if it's still there.

Hopefully someone remembers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully someone remembers.

 

See what you did there....Never forget! At least that ******* Santa Ana got his!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Snow and palm trees just don't mix.

 

Sure they do, you just need more snow. This is how my parent's palm looked in 2008:

 

 

This was earlier in the week:

 

[TT-SEA]

Snow and palm trees just don't mix.

A Mexican restaurant in North Bend has palm trees in front of the building... I see snow on palm trees here every winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure they do, you just need more snow. This is how my parent's palm looked in 2008:

 

 

This was earlier in the week:

 

 

I thought the mega freeze of December 2013 killed the palm's in Eugene. Turns out it just killed the fronds. Last time I was down there the same palms I thought were dead 3 1/2 years ago looked fine. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA might finally go below freezing. Dropped from 39 to 34 in the last hour with no wind at all now.

 

42 here and I can hear the wind from inside the house.

[HighlandExperience]

Hardy palms are planted everywhere in Switzerland. I hate them.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I thought the mega freeze of December 2013 killed the palm's in Eugene. Turns out it just killed the fronds. Last time I was down there the same palms I thought were dead 3 1/2 years ago looked fine. 

 

There are palms in Bulgaria that supposedly have survived -17F, far hardier than Tim's roses.

[Phil]

The fact you guys can grow palm trees up there never ceases to amaze me. We can't grow them at all, and our yearly average temperature is warmer than yours.

[ShawniganLake]

Socked in with fog all day here. Only a high of 37F. Currently just below 32F

The fog was limited to below 100ft and mostly near the water here. It was 28F with freezing fog in Duncan this evening. Clear skies and 30 here.

[Dave]

I thought the mega freeze of December 2013 killed the palm's in Eugene. Turns out it just killed the fronds. Last time I was down there the same palms I thought were dead 3 1/2 years ago looked fine. 

It killed a few.  Most have rebounded nicely.  There are some in my neighborhood that I observe from year to year.  They are reasonably healthy at the moment.

[ShawniganLake]

New snowblower has arrived. Sorry guys... stick a fork in this winter.

 

 

Nice. I’ve had one for years. (Toro). Works great on our wet snow, but best get it before it rains.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty impressive fog bank over the Strait of Georgia today. It's still clear here but the air is saturated at the surface. Everything is covered with dew, so much so that my rain guage actually recorded "precipitation".

 

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah...I saw that the city put down de-icer in Downtown Portland the night before last when it got down to what, 35??

 

Just a wee bit on edge.

They put down de icer around here pretty much every time temps drop near freezing. Helps with black ice prevention.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are palms in Bulgaria that supposedly have survived -17F, far hardier than Tim's roses.

 

When it hit -28 in February 2011 out in Bartlesville, OK where I used to live, it killed the palms at the local gas station...

[ShawniganLake]

0z EPS. Promising looking

 

[Dave]

25 degrees already.  Clear skies and no freezing fog at my location, but the airport is reporting it.