January Weather In the PNW

[Kayla]

18z!

[Deweydog]

18z!

Nicely done.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 50 again. Doesn’t matter much since they hit 52 overnight, but still pretty laughable for this much anticipated “cool period”.

 

Starting to look like this January will end up second warmest on record at PDX, albeit still a few degrees cooler than 1953. Saturday-Monday is looking like another absolute torch at this point.

[Deweydog]

PDX says "**** this, I can hit 50 twice today 12 hours apart!"

[Phil]

I sort of see where he’s coming from, though. All you are basically saying here is that the climate would be very different right now if things had gone differently the past five years. It doesn’t seem very earth shattering, especially considering that they didn’t.

I’m probably framing this poorly.

 

I’ll put it this way: if we hadn’t entered solar maximum in 2012/13 and snapped the circulation, the drawdown of tropical OHC and subsequent global cooling would probably have continued/accelerated, countering the radiative forcing from CO^2 (which is much less over this timespan than the increase in convective poleward ventilation of heat, and the corresponding increase in tropical cloud cover.

[Phil]

You're reading too much into this. It was just worth a poke given the fact you have a bit of a nut job past when it comes to the other side of the "OMG, THIS IS IT!" coin.

You have a long weather forum memory, man.

 

That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering.

[Jesse]

I’m probably framing this poorly.

 

I’ll put it this way: if we hadn’t entered solar maximum in 2012/13 and snapped the circulation, the drawdown of tropical OHC and subsequent global cooling would probably have continued/accelerated, countering the radiative forcing from CO^2 (which is much less over this timespan than the increase in convective poleward ventilation of heat, and the corresponding increase in tropical cloud cover.

 

Blaming solar maximum seems kind of silly. The solar MIN/MAX cycle is relatively predictable.

 

It's like me saying, if the earth froze on its axis and sun angles stopped increasing right now, PDX would have Juneau's climate by the start of Trump's second term. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX up to 50 again. Doesn’t matter much since they hit 52 overnight, but still pretty laughable for this much anticipated “cool period”.

 

Starting to look like this January will end up second warmest on record at PDX, albeit still a few degrees cooler than 1953. Saturday-Monday is looking like another absolute torch at this point.

 

Pretty incredible the torching they have achieved this month. 

[TT-SEA]

Blaming solar maximum seems kind of silly. The solar MIN/MAX cycle is relatively predictable.

 

It's like me saying, if the earth froze on its axis and sun angles stopped increasing right now, PDX would have Juneau's climate by the start of Trump's second term. 

 

If we are planning on freezing the Earth on its axis... can we wait for 5 months?    Thanks!  

[Deweydog]

You have a long weather forum memory, man.

 

That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering.

I don't need a law degree to see the somewhat bland humor in it.

[Jesse]

Pretty incredible the torching they have achieved this month.

Gradients have been favorable for south winds there without much of a break ever since we first started flirting with the 540dm thickness line 5-6 days ago.

 

They have been running about 50/40 on average for the whole period despite a parade of reasonably cool upper airmasses. We would have been better off to end the month with more ridging, in terms of cold anomalies.

[Phil]

Blaming solar maximum seems kind of silly. The solar MIN/MAX cycle is relatively predictable.

 

It's like me saying, if the earth froze on its axis and sun angles stopped increasing right now, PDX would have Juneau's climate by the start of Trump's second term.

Uh, okay, but the system’s response to it isn’t. The large scale, internally-integrated boundary conditions present at solar minimum will determine the effect it has.

 

And those boundary conditions are a set by the preceding equilibrative responses to earlier forcings/boundary states which could be either similar or dissimilar, structurally speaking.

[Bryant]

If we are planning on freezing the Earth on its axis... can we wait for 5 months? Thanks!

After all, everything revolves around Tim!

[Jesse]

Uh, okay, but the system’s response to it isn’t. The macroscale boundary conditions present at solar minimum will determine the effect it has.

 

And those boundary conditions are a set by the preceding equilibrative responses to earlier forcings/boundary states which could be either similar or dissimilar, structurally speaking.

Yes, I am sure it isn’t always a perfectly linear response.

[TT-SEA]

After all, everything revolves around Tim!

 

Bitter man!

[Deweydog]

Would be pretty incredible if PDX ends up warmer for the second half of the month than the first (compared to average). It at least has a shot if we can eviscerate next week's trough a bit more...

[theiceman]

You have a long weather forum memory, man.

 

That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering.

I never post here, just lurk for long range hints, but I have to say finding that specific thread back in like 2013 was a big part of what got me interested in climatology/atmos dynamics when I was also a drugged up young adult (stims and weather mix incredibly well lol). Something about how you wrote it up just made it seem obscure/unexplored in an interesting way. I owe my academic career to your teenage self m8. Doesn't matter if it was accurate or not. 

[Phil]

Yes, I am sure it isn’t always a perfectly linear response.

Yeah. It’s like, if you shake a flag pole at it’s resonance frequency, you can amplify the resonance and possibly break the flag pole. However, if you shake it just as violently outside it’s resonance frequency, very little will happen.

 

Now, imagine that the person shaking the flagpole (the Sun/orbital cycles/etc) change how they shake the flagpole, and also the flagpole itself (Earth) changes its own resonance frequency to protect itself (various climatic feedbacks that sustains quasi-stable boundary states). Uh oh!

 

This is actually very complicated stuff. There is nothing linear about the climate system. Nothing even close to linear, actually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would be pretty incredible if PDX ends up warmer for the second half of the month than the first (compared to average). It at least has a shot if we can eviscerate next week's trough a bit more...

 

GFS is leading the way on that.

[Bryant]

Bitter man!

I'm actually not bitter at all. You just deserve being called out quite often. Glad I'm here to make that happen.

[BLI snowman]

We might not even see 30s out of that "trough" at this rate.

[Jesse]

I'm actually not bitter at all. You just deserve being called out quite often. Glad I'm here to make that happen.

 

I think we all agree that he is cruisin for a mod preview bruisin.

[Deweydog]

GFS is leading the way on that.

1996.

[TT-SEA]

I'm actually not bitter at all. You just deserve being called out quite often. Glad I'm here to make that happen.

 

You are bitter.   Can't hide it.  

 

But obviously it is important to call me out when we are talking about freezing the Earth on its axis.   

 

Bitter man.  

[Bryant]

I think we all agree that he is cruisin for a mod preview bruisin.

I agree. This beautiful rainy weather is helping to fuel the fire

[Phil]

I never post here, just lurk for long range hints, but I have to say finding that specific thread back in like 2013 was a big part of what got me interested in climatology/atmos dynamics when I was also a drugged up young adult (stims and weather mix incredibly well lol). Something about how you wrote it up just made it seem obscure/unexplored in an interesting way. I owe my academic career to your teenage self m8. Doesn't matter if it was accurate or not.

Thank you! Haha, his honestly made my day.

[TT-SEA]

I think we all agree that he is cruisin for a mod preview bruisin.

 

I apologize for joking about waiting 5 months to freeze the Earth's axis.    It was very insensitive of me.    

[Jesse]

We might not even see 30s out of that "trough" at this rate.

 

I'm not sold on that quite yet. Despite the overall lameness of this pattern, the airmass moving in tonight is by some measures the coldest we have seen this winter. Wouldn't take much for PDX to be in the upper 30s by tomorrow morning even without much in the way of clearing.

[BLI snowman]

I'm not sold on that quite yet. Despite the overall lameness of this pattern, the airmass moving in tonight is by some measures the coldest we have seen this winter. Wouldn't take much for PDX to be in the upper 30s by tomorrow morning even without much in the way of clearing.

 

The least warm.

[Deweydog]

I'm not sold on that quite yet. Despite the overall lameness of this pattern, the airmass moving in tonight is by some measures the coldest we have seen this winter. Wouldn't take much for PDX to be in the upper 30s by tomorrow morning even without much in the way of clearing.

#39watch2018

#NPS

[BLI snowman]

18z is going to be better than the 12z, guys.

[TT-SEA]

I agree. This beautiful rainy weather is helping to fuel the fire

 

 

Right.   You are trolling.     

[Jesse]

#39watch2018

#NPS

 

Seems pretty pathetic coming off the three week arctic blast earlier in the month.

[Jesse]

You are bitter.   Can't hide it.  

 

But obviously it is important to call me out when we are talking about freezing the Earth on its axis.   

 

Bitter man.  

 

Bitter Bryant. Lyin' Ted. Crooked Hillary.

 

#covfefe

[Deweydog]

Dirty ridge signal!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS does not appear to be on board...

[Jesse]

18z is absolute trash in the LR.

[TT-SEA]

18z keeps the AR on Sunday/Monday aimed mainly at Vancouver Island/BC before quickly dropping it south. That's kind of nice.

That would be nice for the mountains. I have been noticing the same trend on the ECMWF.

[Deweydog]

18z is absolute trash in the LR.

Don't get too flippant...

 

#wizardsarewatching

[Jesse]

Don't get too flippant...

 

#wizardsarewatching

 

I will need to see the ensembles, Euro, GEM and EPS all break down before fully giving up hope. Just as you will continue to keep the candle lit for another schweaty schummer.