January Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Weird year.

 

Obviously when the sharpest mind on the forum busts this badly for the coldest month of the cold season you know something is SERIOUSLY f*cked up.

 

Which one?   There were only about 5 of us predicting a cold January.

 

Of course, only one went all in with a 3 week Arctic outbreak...

[Phil]

Going to make a call, simply based on the strength of this MJO wave (which is looking like a top-10 event in W1 amplitude).

 

1) EP fluxes will respond and initiate a late season PV breakdown.

 

2) It will trigger a second downwelling OKW response, which will pull the Pacific/ONI out of La Niña conditions by April or May. The -QBO will prevent a transition into El Niño, so the end result is a stalemate.

[Front Ranger]

You only have to wait 1 more year for that. January 25th 2019. I was there. Tim was in hawaii.

 

Are you hinting you've done some work on a DeLorean?

[TT-SEA]

This coming from the guy who has preached "PAY ATTENTION to the GEM when it's the first to show something!"

 

Yes... that is why I just left it open (who knows?)   It is possible.

 

Usually those GEM wins come with surprises in the mid range.   But never say never... it can happen.

 

You know its best to approach the GEM with caution.... particularly in the 8-10 day period.    

[luvssnow_spokane]

You're a big boy, you can determine what you want and don't want.

Thank you,.. I feel so much better now! I thought I was to agree with others who disagreed with me so I did not upset the balance of harmony within our tight nit community.

[HighlandExperience]

This coming from the guy who has preached "PAY ATTENTION to the GEM when it's the first to show something!"

You are right. tt has said that many times. I quote “the gem catches on to patterns frequently”

[Bryant]

You cherry pick. Its BS. You are pretty much the only person on this board launching genuine personal attacks on a daily basis.

Sounds like you're getting a little upset? I'm just looking out for you because I'm worried.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sounds like you're getting a little upset? I'm just looking out for you because I'm worried.

You are becoming a very kind a gentl soul! I am glad to see the medication and therapy is working!

[Front Ranger]

Yes... that is why I just left it open (who knows?)   It is possible.

 

Usually those GEM wins come with surprises in the mid range.   But never say never... it can happen.

 

You know its best to approach the GEM with caution.... particularly in the 8-10 day period.    

 

Well, in this case the GEM starts showing some big differences around day 6 that play out from there.

 

I believe the GEM is pretty close to the GFS for overall (in)accuracy scores?

[Deweydog]

Which one? There were only about 5 of us predicting a cold January.

 

Of course, only one went all in with a 3 week Arctic outbreak...

No one can compare to you with the crop of analogs you've grown in your basement.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like you're getting a little upset? I'm just looking out for you because I'm worried.

 

Not upset at all.  I love how you cherry picked one sentence of my post.  

 

No acknowledgement that I do indeed post cold maps and snowfall maps that show lowland snow.    That messes up your narrative of course.

 

In order for your BS narrative to work... you have to be very selective.    Again... you are the only member on this board launching personal attacks on a daily basis.   That is pretty much all you do on here.   

[Deweydog]

Ensembles are not bad.

 

#rubberstamp

[BLI snowman]

I'd have to look closer again, but I don't think there have been hardly any winters with this much -EPO and so little meaningful cold in the PNW.

 

Obviously, the lack of -PNA has been the big killer, but it's still very unusual to have the amount of Alaskan blocking we've seen without that.

 

2000-01!

 

1960-61!

 

1980-81!

 

The 0-1 dream team!

[Deweydog]

Not upset at all. I love how you cherry picked one sentence of my post.

 

No acknowledgement that I do indeed post cold maps and snowfall maps that show lowland snow. That messes up your narrative of course.

 

In order for your BS narrative to work... you have to be very selective. Again... you are the only member on this board launching personal attacks on a daily basis. That is pretty much all you do on here.

Used to be a decent mind around here. Sad.

[TT-SEA]

Well, in this case the GEM starts showing some big differences around day 6 that play out from there.

 

I believe the GEM is pretty close to the GFS for overall (in)accuracy scores?

 

True... once it goes off on that track then its going to continue in a totally different direction for the rest of the run.  

[Bryant]

In order for your BS narrative to work... you have to be very selective. Again... you are the only member on this board launching personal attacks on a daily basis. That is pretty much all you do on here.

We've actually had a pretty good relationship lately. I worry about you though, I don't want you to go through any more break downs.

[Bryant]

Used to be a decent mind around here. Sad.

No one actually cared about the content I used to post. Most of the time it was burried by BS anyways. Was just a waste of time it seemed like

[Deweydog]

No one actually cared about the content I used to post. Most of the time it was burried by BS anyways. Was just a waste of time it seemed like

Ironic post.

[BLI snowman]

Ensembles are not bad.

 

#rubberstamp

 

Some might even say relatively decent

 

 

[Deweydog]

Some might even say relatively decent

 

 

00zalright.png

Keeps a glancing blow on the table.

[Phil]

Some might even say relatively decent

 

 

00zalright.png

+PNA!

[TT-SEA]

We've actually had a pretty good relationship lately. I worry about you though, I don't want you to go through any more break downs.

 

So weak.   You are not even trying.  

[Bryant]

Ironic post.

Sure, but if you haven't noticed, quality posts generally don't get any appreciation here

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

#2013ing

[Bryant]

So weak. You are not even trying.

I don't have to, you do the work for me. I appreciate it.

[TT-SEA]

I don't have to, you do the work for me. I appreciate it.

 

Another weak post.    One note tune.    

[Deweydog]

Sure, but if you haven't noticed, quality posts generally don't get any appreciation here

Hmmm. Does Fred have your current address? I get a five dollar gift card to Hot Topic for every quality post I make. I'm up to six.

[TT-SEA]

I miss the quick-finishing ECMWF.   I want the answer now!  

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble continues its slow improvement.  A good number of members go below -10 on this run.  If the cold solution wins it will probably be more than a glancing blow because most of the cold solutions are really cold and the mean is watered down by some really warm members.

[Phil]

This is +3 sigma MJO now. And it’s activating the philosophical lobe of my brain tonight.

 

We’ve been in a +PNA background state all winter. This MJO will now trigger a second OKW that will slosh the Pacific out of La Niña this Spring. It’s like Mother Nature had a game plan this entire time, pre-programmed into the circulation. The deeper you look at it, the more fascinating it becomes.

 

The extratropics really do lead the tropics sometimes.

[HighlandExperience]

I miss the quick-finishing ECMWF. I want the answer now!

Hope it still shows snow over east side

[Phil]

Sure, but if you haven't noticed, quality posts generally don't get any appreciation here

I agree. The fact there aren’t any meteorologists posting here is a testament to this.

 

They’d get trolled off the forum the minute they make a warm forecast.

[Deweydog]

This is +3 sigma MJO now. And it’s activating the philosophical lobe of my brain tonight.

 

We’ve been in a +PNA background state all winter. This MJO will now trigger a second OKW that will slosh the Pacific out of La Niña this Spring. It’s like Mother Nature had a game plan this entire time, pre-programmed into the circulation. The deeper you look at it, the more fascinating it becomes.

 

The extratropics really do lead the tropics sometimes.

Yup.

 

##7isonitsway

#thanksfred

[TT-SEA]

I agree. The fact there aren’t any meteorologists posting here is a testament to this.

 

They’d get trolled off the forum the minute they make a warm forecast.

 

 

Someone here tried to troll Mark Nelsen off his own blog for being a warm-biased fool.   

 

For the record... your posts are the highlight of the forum for me.  Even if you are not always right.. you are always interesting and I try to learn from you.   And you don't have a horse in the PNW weather race so are not bogged down with our model riding drama.

[Front Ranger]

No one can compare to you with the crop of analogs you've grown in your basement.

 

At least 1989-90 remains unblemished. 

[Front Ranger]

2000-01!

 

1960-61!

 

1980-81!

 

The 0-1 dream team!

 

I'd have to check on the others, but this winter has 2000-01 handily beat for -EPO. Especially with what looks like another period upcoming.

[Front Ranger]

This is +3 sigma MJO now. And it’s activating the philosophical lobe of my brain tonight.

 

We’ve been in a +PNA background state all winter. This MJO will now trigger a second OKW that will slosh the Pacific out of La Niña this Spring. It’s like Mother Nature had a game plan this entire time, pre-programmed into the circulation. The deeper you look at it, the more fascinating it becomes.

 

The extratropics really do lead the tropics sometimes.

 

Exactly. The PDO drives everything.

[Phil]

Good golly..

 

[Phil]

Exactly. The PDO drives everything.

It’s the missing link!