January Weather In the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The EPS control shows one cold shot at day 10 and then a strong reinforcing shot at day 12.

Regional event!!

[pscz1140]

The EPS control shows one cold shot at day 10 and then a strong reinforcing shot at day 12.

 

If I weren't a bit sleepy I would make sweet love to that map.

[Gradient Keeper]

February 2014/1989 blend

[ChilliwackBCwx]

The EPS control shows one cold shot at day 10 and then a strong reinforcing shot at day 12.

Wowzers! excited in Canada of course a fart gets us excited.

[TT-SEA]

Spin!

 

 

Consistent with a very amplified pattern... very strong anomaly centers.     Not sure what else to say.   

 

I was selling what the EPS was showing.  

[ShawniganLake]

Day 15 of the EPS actually shows the ridge axis pushing back slightly towards western Alaska

[Jesse]

You predicted a three week mega blast, trumpeting it in every way possible for weeks. People actually handled that almost inevitable bust with surprising composure and perspective. Don't always assume the worst of us meteorological morons.

This was a good post. Shouldn’t be overlooked.

[ShawniganLake]

Brett Anderson is a genius.

[TT-SEA]

Day 15 of the EPS actually shows the ridge axis pushing back slightly towards western Alaska

 

 

Unbelievably strong signal for an ensemble mean at day 15.      I have never seen anything like this in the 10-15 day range of ensemble mean.    And this is at day 15.     The mean is always smoothed out to the point of being meaningless by day 15.  

 

[Phil]

Day 15 of the EPS actually shows the ridge axis pushing back slightly towards western Alaska

Sometimes we see what we want to believe.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Brett Anderson is a genius.

So was Stephen Harper.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Sometimes we see what we want to believe.

O.k. Mulder.

[snow_wizard]

Brett Anderson is a genius.

 

Did he say he expected a shift toward a cold west?

[wxmet]

Strong negative EPO and moderate negative PNA on the ECMWF 00z translating to below average heights over the NW CONUS and anomalously colder weather in the long-range. Should be fun to track. 

[BLI snowman]

Day 15 of the EPS actually shows the ridge axis pushing back slightly towards western Alaska

 

1887 repeat!

[Phil]

This was a good post. Shouldn’t be overlooked.

Keep this up and you’re gonna have two Tims on your hands real quick. We should also put in place a rule that only those who make long range forecasts should be allowed to critique them. I’m tired of explaining myself to dumbasses.

 

Dewey couldn’t forecast his way out of a paper bag, so forgive me for rolling my eyes at whatever he thinks about my forecast. I’m not addressing it again.

[Deweydog]

Sometimes we see what we want to believe.

Discontinuously.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile I've actually managed to come up with 7 consecutive lows in the 30s with this mess we have been in!

[BLI snowman]

Did he say he expected a shift toward a cold west?

 

He gave us the dark blue crayon treatment a couple weeks back for early February.

[snow_wizard]

1887 repeat!

 

1887, 1936 hybrid?

[pscz1140]

I was selling what the EPS was showing.  

 

True, but it wasn't selling this in this time frame.

 

In all fairness, you did mention that the ridge might retrograde, but that would have been after it sat over us for many days as per the EPS of a couple of days ago. Things have changed (for now at least.... *grabs closest rabbit*).

 

It's all good, though. I'm obviously happy with the latest trends....

[Deweydog]

Strong negative EPO and moderate negative PNA on the ECMWF 00z translating to below average heights over the NW CONUS and anomalously colder weather in the long-range. Should be fun to track.

But our PNA sexpert just said it's a +PNA pattern?

[snow_wizard]

He gave us the dark blue crayon treatment a couple weeks back for early February.

 

Crayon treatments are fun!

[Phil]

1887, 1936 hybrid?

Followed by a Pacific breakthrough and 1880 repeat at the spring equinox.

[Jesse]

Keep this up and you’re gonna have two Tims on your hands real quick. We should also put in place a rule that only those who make long range forecasts should be allowed to critique them. I’m tired of explaining myself to dumbasses.

 

Dewey couldn’t forecast his way out of a paper bag, so forgive me for rolling my eyes at whatever he thinks about my forecast. I’m not addressing it again.

Man, you are punchy tonight. His point was we all handled the big January bust pretty well all things considered. You certainly had no need to go into the witness protection program. Have a little faith in us west coast plebs.

[Phil]

But our PNA sexpert just said it's a +PNA pattern?

Stick to lawyering.

[ShawniganLake]

Sometimes we see what we want to believe.

[BLI snowman]

1887, 1936 hybrid?

 

Sure, why not.

 

Throw in a little of that December-2008-only-snowier magic and you've got yourself a highly bonerific PNW winter cocktail.

[snow_wizard]

The CFS has finally started to pick up on this too.  About half of the runs showing cold at least making into the northern half of WA.

[Deweydog]

Stick to lawyering.

Stick to whatever paycheck to paycheck whatever you do.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Did he say he expected a shift toward a cold west?

He called it.

 

[TT-SEA]

True, but it wasn't selling this in this time frame.

 

In all fairness, you did mention that the ridge might retrograde, but that would have been after it sat over us for many days as per the EPS of a couple of days ago. Things have changed (for now at least.... *grabs closest rabbit*).

 

It's all good, though. I'm obviously happy with the latest trends....

 

Westward shift... still showing the same crazy amplified pattern though.    We just happen to benefit greatly from that westward shift.  

[wxmet]

But our PNA sexpert just said it's a +PNA pattern?

 

 

The height anomalies and temperature anomalies do not reflect a positive PNA pattern. 

[Jesse]

Westward shift... still showing the same crazy amplified pattern though. We just happen to benefit greatly from that westward shift.

We haven’t benefitted from anything yet.

 

And you were trumpeting strong ridging in the 10-15 day period for days leading up to this.

[Phil]

Man, you are punchy tonight. His point was we all handled the big January bust pretty well all things considered. You certainly had no need to go into the witness protection program. Have a little faith in us west coast plebs.

So, I’m laying in bed watching model runs for the west coast, getting trolled for busted forecasts, while my girlfriend is puking in the bathroom (as I write this post) and I’m sick with the flu, have two exams on Friday, a funeral to attend on Monday, and two tree jobs scheduled for later next week. I swear I’m not making any of this up.

 

I’m not a happy dude right now.

[snow_wizard]

Followed by a Pacific breakthrough and 1880 repeat at the spring equinox.

 

In all seriousness if this thing pans out some kind of an early March event could be on the table also.

[TT-SEA]

Snowy and cold Super Bowl weekend.... lock it in!  

[Deweydog]

So, I’m laying in bed watching model runs for the west coast, getting trolled for busted forecasts, while my girlfriend is puking in the bathroom (as I write this post) and I’m sick with the flu, have two exams on Friday, a funeral to attend on Monday, and two tree jobs scheduled for later next week. Not making any of this up..

 

I’m not a happy dude right now.

You're not holding her hair for her?

 

#clearfluidsandbedrest

[Phil]

The height anomalies and temperature anomalies do not reflect a positive PNA pattern.

The PNA isn’t calculated using temperature anomalies.

 

The 00z EPS, verbatim, would verify as a +PNA. It’s actually a solid match to the EOF for the PNA loading pattern used by the CPC.

[Jesse]

So, I’m laying in bed watching model runs for the west coast, getting trolled for busted forecasts, while my girlfriend is puking in the bathroom (as I write this post) and I’m sick with the flu, have two exams on Friday, a funeral to attend on Monday, and two tree jobs scheduled for later next week. I swear I’m not making any of this up.

 

I’m not a happy dude right now.

You should get to sleep or at least get off your phone then. What is it 3:30 over there? Hope the rest of your week goes better.