January Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I don’t think Tim is out of line. You don’t know how happy I am to finally see some winter weather again. I wasn’t expecting my house would see sticking snow until tonight, so I was glad to see it before I had to head out.

[The Swamp]

Always Day 10

[BLI snowman]

You are so desperately used to searching for negative information that you are comparing surface temps at 240 hours when the overall pattern looks pretty close to great.

 

Sometimes I think you do it subconsciously.   

 

12z Euro just isn't looking as amplified, it is what it is. Still close to greatness which is fine at this stage, but it pretty much hangs the arctic air up at the border. No need to shoot Tim down for it. Things will change 100 more times anyways...

[The Swamp]

Tomorrow it will be Day 10

[The Swamp]

Copyright it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Euro definitely going with a north/south solution. Almost 50 here while at or below freezing in Seattle...joy.

[Jesse]

Tomorrow it will be Day 10

Do you have any actual analysis to contribute?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Day ten looks like a classic snow event on the way followed by the arctic front. Probably be a rain to snow situation.

Hour 240 has snow for Whatcom County, though spotty, and rain elsewhere, but precip looks like it may just be beginning.  The real cold air looks to be about 150-200 miles north of the border.

[TT-SEA]

 

No, I said you were probably looking at the 500mb maps and thought, "There has to be a downside to this somewhere" and went searching. Lo and behold, the surface temps at 240 hours are 10 degrees warmer. Bingo!

 

 

Here I am 20 minutes ago just searching for negative news... I will remember to only post super happy good news and completely bury any other analysis that is not at the highest level of our circle jerk standards.

 

[TT-SEA]

I rest my case...

 

Overall pattern looks close to greatness, things will change 100 more times anyways, and yet here's Tim comparing surface temps ten days from now. I can't point out the humor in that?

 

We compare the 12Z run yesterday to the 12Z run today at every frame.     I wanted a way to compare to the 00Z run.     

 

If it was colder... I would have enthusiastically posted that.   Like I did last night.

[Bryant]

Here I am 20 minutes ago just searching for negative news... I will remember to only post super happy good news and completely bury any other analysis that is not at the highest level of our circle jerk standards.

 

Jeez Tim, it's almost like multiple people on this forum see right through your BS!

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF surface map shows temps falling through the afternoon on day 10.... with some lowland snow.   An actual arctic front.  

 

 

Surface map shows 19 at BLI and 30 at SEA by late morning.   

 

 

I got many 'likes' on this post last night.

 

The first one to show the surface details at day 10.    Everyone loved it!   Not one personal attack.

 

If I compare the new 12Z ECMWF at the same time and its not as good... watch out!   The knifes comes out.     

[BLI snowman]

I rest my case...

 

Overall pattern looks close to greatness, things will change 100 more times anyways, and yet here's Tim comparing surface temps ten days from now. I can't point out the humor in that?

 

It just drags the discussion down when you guys get needlessly personal over what was in this case totally straightforward model analysis. The 00z showed an arctic front crossing the border, the 12z didn't. There'll be plenty of other runs to micro-analyze. It gets exhausting reading five or six complaints for every Tim post about it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Also the GEM still doesn't have any sub freezing temps at all here through Feb 4

 

#shittylocation

[Guest El nina]

Do you have any actual analysis to contribute?

We have the analysis of seeing what's happened all winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have to think the GEM progression is an outlier at this point.

[TT-SEA]

Jeez Tim, it's almost like multiple people on this forum see right through your BS!

 

Yes... so my 25 positive posts this morning about favorable model trends was all part of my master plan!   

 

I knew that I was going to have one post that was less positive!

 

Despite also excitedly showing the 12Z ECMWF day 10 and saying its a win.       

 

My plan was executed to perfection...  I got in a slightly less positive post.   (Evil laugh)    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes... so my 25 positive posts this morning about favorable model trends was all part of my master plan!

 

I knew that I was going to have 1 post that was less positive!

 

Despite also excitedly showing the 12Z ECMWF day 10 and saying its a win.

 

My plan was executed to perfection... I got in a slightly less positive post!

You could help by remaining above the fray. No use helping them drag the forum down.

[BLI snowman]

My God... I'm giving you some sh*t for comparing surface temps 10 days from now. I'm not saying you have not been positive at all, just that you have a tendency to search for negative things. How dare I point out the obvious!

 

You must be scarred from the beating that Bryant has given you on a daily basis for the past few days. Simmer down... I'm not personally attacking you, OK?

 

He literally posted the same surface details last night and I don't recall any stern lectures from you about it.

 

Hmm... is it maybe plausible to assume that your guys' Tim bias and desire for unwavering optimism is clouding your consistency on the issue!?

[TT-SEA]

You could help by remaining above the fray. No use helping them drag the forum down.

 

True.    Just so annoying.   

 

Nothing but praise and tons of 'likes' for posting the surface details at day 10 last night.    Do any comparison this morning and its all part of an evil plan.  

[Phil]

Yes... so my 25 positive posts this morning about favorable model trends was all part of my master plan!

 

I knew that I was going to have one post that was less positive!

 

Despite also excitedly showing the 12Z ECMWF day 10 and saying its a win.

 

My plan was executed to perfection... I got in a slightly less positive post. (Evil laugh)

I’m punching bag #1, you’re punching bag #2. When I stop posting, you take the abuse that’s normally directed at me.

[ShawniganLake]

December 1990 was that way. Not kidding it went from rain and 38 degrees to a raging blizzard and 20 degrees in a hr at most.

I remember that night up here. Went from near 40 down to the mid teens with heavy snow and a north wind. Been awhile, almost 30 years ago now.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

I’m punching bag #1, you’re punching bag #2. When I stop posting, you take the abuse that’s normally directed at me.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Before hitting 31 this morning I had gone 16 days without a freeze. Given the average low in January is 31 that is pretty amazing.

[Jesse]

The Tim issue is a complex one. He is the forums biggest troll, but he also provides valuable information from time to time. It’s hard to pick out the trolling stuff from the real stuff and most of that is his fault. People are conditioned to react a certain way to his posts after knowing him for years. So he shouldn’t act like the reactions are 100% out of left field.

[DareDuck]

Yeah I don’t think Tim is out of line. You don’t know how happy I am to finally see some winter weather again. I wasn’t expecting my house would see sticking snow until tonight, so I was glad to see it before I had to head out.

 

Nice surprise dusting of snow here in Bend this morning. Probably only 1/4", but it's nice to see everything coated in white.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 9.07" of precip on the month. Average is just over 10" and with a lot of rain expected this weekend we should close the month very close to average, perhaps slightly above.

[FroYoBro]

People should be mature enough to avoid having an emotional breakdown because a screen shot of a model was posted. 

[TT-SEA]

I will be posting the surface details from the end of the ECMWF run tonight again.   That is the interesting time frame we are watching.

 

I sure hope its good so I will get lots of positive feedback!    

[Phil]

The Tim issue is a complex one. He is the forums biggest troll, but he also provides valuable information from time to time. It’s hard to pick out the trolling stuff from the real stuff and most of that is his fault. People are conditioned to react a certain way to his posts after knowing him for years. So he shouldn’t act like the reactions are 100% out of left field.

Am I the second biggest troll? Or is that Dewey?

[Jesse]

Am I the second biggest troll? Or is that Dewey?

Look at me look at me!!!! I want attention too guys!!!!

[FroYoBro]

Am I the second biggest troll? Or is that Dewey?

You aren't really a troll, just someone with serious personality defects. 

[Phil]

Look at me look at me!!!! I want attention too guys!!!!

Am I the biggest attention wh*re? Come on, I need to be recognized for something.

[Phil]

Lol Jesse, you walked right into that.

[Jesse]

Am I the biggest attention wh*re? Come on, I need to be recognized for something.

Yes, that seems fitting.

[TT-SEA]

I mean, I get it in the way that it doesn't meaningfully contribute to the discussion. I meant it more in jest, which is why I plugged the laughing face in there, instead of a 'personal attack' on his character.

 

I suppose I should have considered how many people have been harping on him recently for his usual antics and how my post would have been construed.

 

At the same time, I don't really feel bad for him when nine times out of ten he brings it on himself. But I'll be sure to take into consideration the amount of sh*t Tim has already been dealt by other people before I comment on his tendencies for fear of being accused of 'personally attacking' or 'bringing the forum down'.  

 

 

Enough.   

 

You said I was "desperately" searching for bad news while I was being very positive all morning because it really looks like things are trending in the right direction.   Its all genuine.   I was also very encouraging and in agreement with Jim last night.     

 

If I was "desperately" searching for bad news then I could have posted some mid range GFS maps.   But I called the block 'majestic' on that run. 

 

None of this was necessary.   People were going to ask me for the ECMWF surface map details at day 10 anyways.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS spagetti chart was pretty unchanged. At least a couple more super cold members at PDX.

[Jesse]

You aren't really a troll, just someone with serious personality defects.

Funny coming from someone who usually logs on to either make an irreverent statement or attack people, then log off for another two weeks.

[Phil]

You aren't really a troll, just someone with serious personality defects.

I bet if you met me you’d love me.