California Weather/ Climate

[halofromajo]

I am not shocked. I never remember november being very wet. But january is coming....

[richard mann]

More general potential wise otherwise, certainly involving the idea of pattern, .. With what I'm seeing set to take place main colder air mass movement along with distribution focused more generally, .. in my view, there's certainly some potential for some "atmospheric river" type development and set up showing up maybe five to seven days out. …

 

Basically the idea that main cold is (as I see things.) set both to continue to step up its main movement and pace more east over the next few to several days (thru the 21st.), looked at together along with otherwise that that colder air more primary from the north is currently moving and spreading daily more south and should be through the 23rd, should lend to a more zonal flow of the atmosphere east.

 

— Plenty of cold from the north, at the same time both spreading steadily more south while also moving steadily more solidly east, may work to prevent warmer tropically generated moisture, access more directly north—is what I'm looking at.

 

With this that I'd posted previously elsewhere, routed to otherwise here above ... http://theweatherfor...limate/?p=41627

 

.. The general circumstance showing at this point is playing out at least somewhat along the lines of what I'd been thinking.

 

— Main cold North (WNW) still set to drop South somewhat, for the next fews day at least. If beginning to slow a bit sooner. (.. a good thing. ?) .. Check the current GOES-W sector both IR and Vis, above .. updating. .. Set against this set up back then. ..14111421z Goes10-IR  @

 

— More dense cold West looked at more generally during the interim, moving more solidly east with the more plentiful more sub-tropical moisture, having perhaps, lent to a more "express" main line precipitation delivery set up.

[Guest happ]

A surprise thunderstorm over the San Gabriel Valley early this morning dropped hail and brief heavy rain in areas around Duarte/ San Dimas; there was a mudslide even.  Yet just a bit further west no rain/ no nothing!

[Alan]

I got in on tstorm action last night for a good 90 minutes - best lightning show in years - picked up .5" rain and the same in snow! A different location in Running Springs here picked up .90" (per Nws)

[richard mann]

A surprise thunderstorm over the San Gabriel Valley early this morning dropped hail and brief heavy rain in areas around Duarte/ San Dimas; there was a mudslide even.  Yet just a bit further west no rain/ no nothing!

 

With this below, from what I'd suggest a while back pointed to within my post, 3 above, … 

 

— Plenty of cold from the north, at the same time both spreading steadily more south (thru the 23) while also moving steadily more solidly east (thru the 21st) , may work to prevent warmer tropically generated moisture, access more directly north—is what I'm looking at.

 

.. looked at together with what I've said more recently about this idea just yesterday (routed to accessible here following.), … http://theweatherfor...ussion/?p=43733

 

With main colder air West at this point appearing to be losing density, and with main sub-tropical moisture also appearing to be fairly sketchy, both more immediately, … 

 

.. Best shot next I think "happ", is between Sunday and Wednesday.

[Dan the Weatherman]

A surprise thunderstorm over the San Gabriel Valley early this morning dropped hail and brief heavy rain in areas around Duarte/ San Dimas; there was a mudslide even.  Yet just a bit further west no rain/ no nothing!

I got absolutely nothing from this storm last night, not even a drop of rain, and I didn't see one flash of lightning, either. It completely bypassed the Orange area.

[Guest happ]

I got absolutely nothing from this storm last night, not even a drop of rain, and I didn't see one flash of lightning, either. It completely bypassed the Orange area.

 

San Diego county scored the most rain but even the low desert picked up a few hundreds of an inch.

 

OCEANSIDE HARBOR  :   66 /  59 /  0.37 /

OCEANSIDE AIRPORT :   68 /  55 /  0.21 /

VISTA   :   67 /  55 /  0.23 /

CARLSBAD AIRPORT  :   66 /  57 /  0.36 /

ENCINITAS   :   69 /  56 /  0.41 /

SOLANA BEACH    :   71 /  51 /  0.10 /

DEL MAR    :   69 /  58 /  0.29 /

MIRAMAR      69 /  59 /  0.36 /

SAN DIEGO     :   69 /  61 /  0.04 /

 

ONTARIO   :   70 /  54 /  0.17 /

BEAUMONT  :   64 /  46 /  0.44 /

SAN MARCOS   :   68 /  55 /  0.33 /

ESCONDIDO    :   69 /  56 /  0.31 /

SAN PASQUAL VALLEY  :   71 /  54 /  0.26 /

RAMONA AIRPORT  :   66 /  51 /  0.39 /

RANCHO BERNARDO   :   69 /  57 /  0.29 /

POWAY    :   69 /  57 /  0.50 /

SANTEE   :   70 /  58 /  0.26 /

 

BALDWIN LAKE  :   44 /  32 /  0.23 /

ANGELUS OAKS   :   48 /  34 /  0.24 /

PINE COVE    :   46 /  33 /  0.76 /

JULIAN     :   54 /  43 /  0.40 /

MOUNT LAGUNA   :   49 /  37 /  0.35 /

 

PALM SPRINGS    :   72 /  54 /  0.07 /

BORREGO   :   74 /  56 /  0.04 /

 

73 / 55

[Dan the Weatherman]

For some reason my area keeps missing out on these types of storm systems that bring scattered showers to the area. I am thinking that my area lies in the rainshadow of the San Gabriel Mountains in these WNW or NW flow type events and that downsloping effect dries out the air mass enough to the point it doesn't rain here. In San Diego County, a WNW or NW flow is a more moist flow that comes in from off the ocean, so the moister air mass enables more shower development there. This area does better in a S, SW, or W flow.

[Guest happ]

For some reason my area keeps missing out on these types of storm systems that bring scattered showers to the area. I am thinking that my area lies in the rainshadow of the San Gabriel Mountains in these WNW or NW flow type events and that downsloping effect dries out the air mass enough to the point it doesn't rain here. In San Diego County, a WNW or NW flow is a more moist flow that comes in from off the ocean, so the moister air mass enables more shower development there. This area does better in a S, SW, or W flow.

 

Yes, the rain shadow when there is no south wind/ subtropical fetch.  Whatever reaches our latitude is meager anyway.  Another lost opportunity.  November can be much wetter and normally is.

 

74/ 55 [note: 10° cooler minimums in valleys]

[Dan the Weatherman]

Yes, the rain shadow when there is no south wind/ subtropical fetch.  Whatever reaches our latitude is meager anyway.  Another lost opportunity.  November can be much wetter and normally is.

 

74/ 55 [note: 10° cooler minimums in valleys]

This has really been the case the last 3 years, as the overall weather pattern has been rather hostile to CA during this time period for whatever reason. It has been like pulling teeth to get it to rain down here!!

[Guest happ]

This has really been the case the last 3 years, as the overall weather pattern has been rather hostile to CA during this time period for whatever reason. It has been like pulling teeth to get it to rain down here!!

 

What's bad is that we end the month warm and dry.  I've only recorded 3 days in the 60's this month but 4 days in the 90's. 

 

Rain 

Days: 1

Month: 0.13

Year [jul-jun]: 0.57

[snow_wizard]

What's bad is that we end the month warm and dry.  I've only recorded 3 days in the 60's this month but 4 days in the 90's. 

 

Rain 

Days: 1

Month: 0.13

Year [jul-jun]: 0.57

This is looking really grim for you guys. Must be terribly frustrating.

[richard mann]

-

With the good amount and balance of cold north to warmth and moisture generation potential to the south, one of these troughs long or more narrow, has got to make it further south to steer some precip. into parts and areas further south, eventually here this season. Hopefully many more than just a few.

 

.. I personally, don't want to see "our" whole water distribution system changed more radically any time soon. Where looking at things, and dealing with the idea, more logistically.

[halofromajo]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_204_1000_500_thick.gif

Well now.  This looks promising lol.  Could the Cleveland nationals see good snow amounts in early December?

 

The Euro is onboard with this same type of solution here.  If someone has weatherbell, could you post the 850 mb or surface temps for the dec 2.

[Dan the Weatherman]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_204_1000_500_thick.gif

Well now.  This looks promising lol.  Could the Cleveland nationals see good snow amounts in early December?

 

The Euro is onboard with this same type of solution here.  If someone has weatherbell, could you post the 850 mb or surface temps for the dec 2.

I'm not sure who the Cleveland nationals are, but that map is looking good for CA and would be nice to see it verify.

[Guest happ]

NWS_LA

ALL EYES NOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS BOTH EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A DECENT STORM FOR THE SOUTHLAND. IF THE 
  MDLS ARE TO BE BELIEVED (AND REMEMBER NEVER EVER FULLY BUY INTO A 
  DAY 7 FORECAST) A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
  COAST LATER SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH 
  AND EAST AND WILL REACH L.A. COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS 
  CURRENTLY FORECAST TO HAVE ENOUGH IMPULSES BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT TO 
  KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN GOING THROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL BE INTERESTING 
  TO WATCH THIS FORECAST EVOLVE.
 

[halofromajo]

I'm not sure who the Cleveland nationals are, but that map is looking good for CA and would be nice to see it verify.

Cleveland National Forest is the mountain range that is stretching from Mexico to about Corona.  They are caused by the Elsinore fault that ruptured down in mexico a few years ago on Easter.

 

Well the CMC has jumped on board with this general solution also.  The GFS is by far the coldest for SoCal, dropping the 5400m thickness down to atleast Bakersfield.  Mammoth is going to have a field day with this one.  

159	Mon 12/01 03Z	26 °	29 °	26 °	24 °	S 11	S 11	S 11	0.19	0.00	547	550	-22 °	5 °	9 °	1002	99 %	3 °
162	Mon 12/01 06Z	25 °	29 °	25 °	23 °	S 9	S 11	S 11	0.24	0.00	546	548	-21 °	4 °	9 °	1001	99 %	3 °
165	Mon 12/01 09Z	23 °	25 °	23 °	21 °	SSW 9	SSW 9	SSW 9	0.28	0.00	543	545	-23 °	3 °	8 °	1001	99 %	2 °
168	Mon 12/01 12Z	20 °	25 °	21 °	18 °	SSW 7	SSW 9	SSW 9	0.15	0.00	540	543	-27 °	2 °	6 °	1002	99 %	1 °
171	Mon 12/01 15Z	15 °	21 °	15 °	12 °	SW 4	SW 7	SW 7	0.02	0.00	537	543	-26 °	0 °	5 °	1005	88 %	-2 °
174	Mon 12/01 18Z	22 °	22 °	13 °	18 °	WSW 7	WSW 7	WSW 7	0.00	0.00	539	545	-27 °	2 °	6 °	1006	88 %	-1 °
177	Mon 12/01 21Z	25 °	25 °	22 °	20 °	W 7	W 7	W 7	0.01	0.00	540	545	-28 °	3 °	8 °	1006	95 %	0 °
180	Tue 12/02 00Z	22 °	25 °	22 °	19 °	W 4	W 4	W 4	0.03	0.01	539	546	-28 °	2 °	7 °	1008	95 %	1  

Anyone want to  come get me and my snowboard from SLC?  The lack of weather in the future is depressing.  I want snow 

 

 

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Los_Angeles_USA_ens.png

[Guest happ]

It looks to me like they're being conservative.

 

The hesitation comes with so many false promises but it looks like the best model run consistency for rain in a long time.   

 

80/ 56

Oceanside hit 88F today; great beach weather [ocean temp: 67].

[Dan the Weatherman]

Cleveland National Forest is the mountain range that is stretching from Mexico to about Corona.  They are caused by the Elsinore fault that ruptured down in mexico a few years ago on Easter.

 

Well the CMC has jumped on board with this general solution also.  The GFS is by far the coldest for SoCal, dropping the 5400m thickness down to atleast Bakersfield.  Mammoth is going to have a field day with this one.  

159	Mon 12/01 03Z	26 °	29 °	26 °	24 °	S 11	S 11	S 11	0.19	0.00	547	550	-22 °	5 °	9 °	1002	99 %	3 °
162	Mon 12/01 06Z	25 °	29 °	25 °	23 °	S 9	S 11	S 11	0.24	0.00	546	548	-21 °	4 °	9 °	1001	99 %	3 °
165	Mon 12/01 09Z	23 °	25 °	23 °	21 °	SSW 9	SSW 9	SSW 9	0.28	0.00	543	545	-23 °	3 °	8 °	1001	99 %	2 °
168	Mon 12/01 12Z	20 °	25 °	21 °	18 °	SSW 7	SSW 9	SSW 9	0.15	0.00	540	543	-27 °	2 °	6 °	1002	99 %	1 °
171	Mon 12/01 15Z	15 °	21 °	15 °	12 °	SW 4	SW 7	SW 7	0.02	0.00	537	543	-26 °	0 °	5 °	1005	88 %	-2 °
174	Mon 12/01 18Z	22 °	22 °	13 °	18 °	WSW 7	WSW 7	WSW 7	0.00	0.00	539	545	-27 °	2 °	6 °	1006	88 %	-1 °
177	Mon 12/01 21Z	25 °	25 °	22 °	20 °	W 7	W 7	W 7	0.01	0.00	540	545	-28 °	3 °	8 °	1006	95 %	0 °
180	Tue 12/02 00Z	22 °	25 °	22 °	19 °	W 4	W 4	W 4	0.03	0.01	539	546	-28 °	2 °	7 °	1008	95 %	1  

Anyone want to  come get me and my snowboard from SLC?  The lack of weather in the future is depressing.  I want snow 

 

 

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Los_Angeles_USA_ens.png

 

I thought you were referring to a sports team of some sort or something form Cleveland, OH, rather than the Cleveland National Forest.

 

As far as snow prospects in the Cleveland National Forest, the highest peaks such as Mt. Laguna could get something if the snow levels drop low enough.

[Guest happ]

From Steve Johnson - Fresno met

 

The GFS Forecast charts continue to intensify and ramp up the QPF estimates for CA today during each subsequent model run, including the 0Z issued at 9pm Monday night.   In addition the HPC 7 Day QPF guidance has taken a big jump, now offering up to 7.5 inches of precip into the Northern Sierra, specifically into the Feather River basin.  Other Precip focal points show up to 7.2 inches into the Mendocino Coastal region and 6.1 inches for the Santa Cruz mtn region and with up to 3.3 inches into the LA Co mts.  Even though the 7 Day charts shows a rainshadow into the SJV, it too is steadily shrinking.  The South Valley Kern region could produce equal to or more precip than the Central SJV!  These hefty increases for QPF estimates for CA are quite remarkable and an answer to many prayers.   This storm event will NOT end the Drought, but could put a significant dent into it.   This storm now has the potential to deposit up to 4-5 feet of snowfall into the Northern Sierra and up to 3-4 feet into the Southern Sierra.  A Major SNOW DUMP!   Yahoo!    6 Days and counting, until it arrives.   

 

Another big question is how much precip will fall on Sun, Nov 30, the end of the November month and how much will spill into Monday, Dec 1.  If the bulk of the system dumps on Sunday, then the November monthly precip totals will dramatically improve to possibly above average, and this could be especially true for NORCAL.  If the storm waits until after midnight Sunday, then November monthly precip will be below average. 

 

CAUTION

We really hope that this storm does verify, however we must caution everyone about this storm.  It is a cut-off upper level Low Pressure…”devil”.  While is has been fairly consistent and actually gaining forecast confidence, it is still 6 days out and that gives the GFS Forecast charts 24 opportunities to change, alter or edit this system.  What the charts give, they can easily take away when dealing with an upper level “devil”.  That is why they are called “devils”.   Let’s hope this one behaves as is currently forecast.  This is the ONLY storm on the charts for the next 16 Days, ending on Wed, Dec 10^th.

 

New Updates to monitor the progress of this system are warranted due to its possible significant impact upon CA. 

[Guest happ]

Yikes!

12noon

SAN RAFAEL HILLS :    89   9   5 CALM 

[Alan]

65F up here which is D**n near unheard of this time of year combined with an overnight low of 51F after we've been steady dipping into the 30's for a couple weeks now. I'm ok with all rain to start off the season down here.

[Guest happ]

The frustration is quite clear, per NWS_LA

 

LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
  THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH 
  NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN 
  BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.
  
  OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND 
  INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY 
  EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST 
  OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT 
  ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE 
  IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET 
  WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC 
  IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND 
  SOME OF FRIDAY.
  
  JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE 
  EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN 
  LATER"
 

65° [it stayed warm all night; some 6AM temps are in the 70's in places like La Jolla - beach, Simi Valley - inland, Whittier Hills - foothills]

[halofromajo]

People hate on CA weather....  I love this, the difficulty makes me happy.  Until I get it wrong.  Cheers all!  Happy Thanksgiving.

[Guest happ]

People hate on CA weather....  I love this, the difficulty makes me happy.  Until I get it wrong.  Cheers all!  Happy Thanksgiving.

 

People who love weather in all its variety hate California.  But most people here don't pay any attention and want to live outdoors as much as possible.

 

I don't mind late Fall heat waves because humidity is basically non-existent and it doesn't get too hot.  Though today came close.

 

91 / 65

[Guest happ]

More advisories to come next week; hopefully for all of California.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
239 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

...TRAVEL DELAYS POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW...

.SLICK ROADS FROM SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DELAYS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

CAZ068-069-290000-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WW.Y.0016.141129T0800Z-141201T0300Z/
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
239 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 PM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS: SLICK ROADS AND TRAVEL DELAYS FROM SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 12 INCHES.

* ELEVATION: ABOVE 6000 FEET.

* TIMING: HEAVIEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
  DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PICKING UP AGAIN SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN NATIONAL PARK...DONNER PASS...ECHO
  SUMMIT...CARSON PASS.

* FOR A DETAILED VIEW OF THE HAZARD AREA...VISIT
  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SACRAMENTO/HAZARDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

 

[snow_wizard]

People who love weather in all its variety hate California.  But most people here don't pay any attention and want to live outdoors as much as possible.

 

I don't mind late Fall heat waves because humidity is basically non-existent and it doesn't get too hot.  Though today came close.

 

91 / 65

 

91 at the end of November?  Good lord!

[bainbridgekid]

91 at the end of November?  Good lord!

My nieces and nephew spent the day swimming at the beach today in Hermosa Beach. Looked crowded too.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS is showing a big rain for LA.  I'm surprised you guys aren't going nuts over that right now.

[snow_wizard]

My nieces and nephew spent the day swimming at the beach today in Hermosa Beach. Looked crowded too.

 

I would really hate that this time of year.

[Guest happ]

The 12z GFS is showing a big rain for LA.  I'm surprised you guys aren't going nuts over that right now.

 

I am a little surprised by the lack of chatter concerning the storm(s) next week.  But the NWS discussions certainly are focused on this first real storm [i.e. 1+ inches] since the end of February; the models haven't been consistent when rain will start. 

 

82 / 65 [minimums in the 40's/ 50's were common except in foothills]

[Dan the Weatherman]

The 12z GFS is showing a big rain for LA.  I'm surprised you guys aren't going nuts over that right now.

I think we have been let down for such a long time due to this bad drought and the computer models have been all over the place on this event, so we are taking a wait and see approach. However, it is appearing more likely that we are actually going to get some rain, and we all are going to be excited once it starts. I am definitely looking forward to getting some significant rain down here.

[Guest happ]

Not a lot a rain across the state today besides the North Coast.  But these kinds of readings should be widespread across California within 2-3 days.

 

FORT BRAGG    2.68

GASQUET  1.52
FORTUNA   1.50    

ALDER POINT RAWS   1.25

BIG HILL RAWS   0.96

COVELO    1.40
HONEYDEW   0.96
LAYTONVILLE RAWS  1.62

ZENIA  1.61

75 / 55

[richard mann]

-
 
http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0300.jpg

.. Static for both the 29th and the 30th, for 0300z. - 14112903z Goes10-IR  14113003z Goes10-IR
 
This trough of cold's having moved more directly south down to where it has more at this point, has certainly been an odd one. 
 
.. This with its being, it looks as if, the odd trough, along with circumstance, that I'd suggested above as having been more than likely to set up sooner or later with the abundant cold more North this year, set against (with.) the certainly decent enough amount of moisture generation more South through the tropics and subtropics, and with its working to position itself so as to limit that main moisture's being steered otherwise more northward instead of more inland more South. 
 
— I'd figured it would have been one set up more longitudinally. .. i.e. spread out more broadly more west to east.
 
My impression where looking at this advent greater pattern wise more beyond this idea more general, is that this stronger shot of cold — {.. more basically, some amount of a/ the greater wealth of more primary colder air's having moved (more retrograde.) west north of the U.S. / Canadian border north to have joined with some lesser cold from the NNW before having moved and spread more south.}, … is that it will also ultimately work as a major pattern breaker, or "reset". This, with—depending upon the way things are looked at, its either whether (even now.) working to "block", and so with doing, "slow", together with also shift, the progress of the greater patterning of troughs and ridges east West, this or either, where looked at otherwise, .. it's (this main colder trough's.) having been more caused by, this type of greater pattern slow-down East. 
 
But either way, a main and greater pattern shift West. 
 
— Which may be better for both Northern, and Southern California. …..

[richard mann]

... Regarding what I'd written posted just above last night.

 

— Nope. Main cold still not making it far enough south or east to help you guys "more south". 

 

... It looked like it might have held together. But it was an odd shot of cold, essentially the result more of broader cold's, with slowing where moving more eastward, having allowed for it to have push south more, i.e. more in the face of wider cold air's more general regress at this point. 

 

... Per my more general estimation, the next main expansion of colder air more primary, south, is set to begin on December 7th. 

[Guest happ]

It may not be cold, Richard, but it is getting wetter day by day.  Again, generally under an inch in California w/ little no rain from the San Joaquin Valley into most of SoCal but the Los Angeles basin picked up close to 0.40 in places.

 

At least is has rained twice this month; the first and last days of the month.

 

November was warmer and drier than normal just like every month has been this year.

 

 

November Data

 

Aver Max: 77.7 / Norm: 74

Aver Min: 59.2 / Norm: 54

Mean: 68.4 

 

Highest Max: 93

Lowest Max: 66

 

Highest Min: 68

Lowest Min: 52

 

Rain

Days: 2

Month: 0.24

Year [jul-jun]: 0.68

[richard mann]

It may not be cold, Richard, but it is getting wetter day by day.

.. I just noticed this "happ". .. The 3-day out, more simple precip. analysis (estimate.) 

 

http://www.hpc.ncep..../qpf/99qwbg.gif

http://www.nws.noaa....outlook tab.php  (Scroll down to the 1, 2 and 3 day analyses.)

 

— I don't usually look at anything much "ahead", either whether model generation or more simple prognostication otherwise. (These days much more likely than not based on model projections more.). ... A matter of sticking to a more "seat o the pants", approach to and where considering my own efforts at projection of main colder air mass movement and distribution. . .. But found these, and checked them real quick.

[Guest happ]

I recorded an overall monthly average of 63.3º, second warmest November in my 23 years here (11/2008 was 63.5º).

 

Storm total today:  0.46".  Combined with the 0.44" that fell on the 1st of the month gives a monthly total of 0.90", which isn't so far off my November average of 1.02".

 

It's those 28 days between rains that made it seem so dry.

 

It is interesting that we have 5 degree difference between our locations on either side of San Rafael Hills.  My November mean was strongly effected by santa ana or just routine nocturnal winds.  Downtown LA/ USC mean averaged 66.1°.  The monthly minimum tied for the warmest at my station.  You recorded much more rain than I did

[Guest happ]

.. I just noticed this "happ". .. The 3-day out, more simple precip. analysis (estimate.) 

 

http://www.hpc.ncep..../qpf/99qwbg.gif

http://www.nws.noaa....outlook tab.php  (Scroll down to the 1, 2 and 3 day analyses.)

 

— I don't usually look at anything much "ahead", either whether model generation or more simple prognostication otherwise. (These days much more likely than not based on model projections more.). ... A matter of sticking to a more "seat o the pants", approach to and where considering my own efforts at projection of main colder air mass movement and distribution. . .. But found these, and checked them real quick.

 

I hate to look too far ahead since a big High Pressure system is forecast in those graphics in a week

[Dan the Weatherman]

I recorded an overall monthly average of 63.3º, second warmest November in my 23 years here (11/2008 was 63.5º).

 

Storm total today:  0.46".  Combined with the 0.44" that fell on the 1st of the month gives a monthly total of 0.90", which isn't so far off my November average of 1.02".

 

It's those 28 days between rains that made it seem so dry.

Some off and on light rain has fallen here in Orange throughout the day and has been enough to generate small puddles in my patio, but I think your area and other places north and west of here have received more. It surely is nice to have cloudy and damp conditions once again after all the warmth and dryness as of late, and I am looking forward to heavier rains on Tuesday.