California Weather/ Climate

[Guest happ]

My apologies, happ -- you'll have to pardon my geographical idiocy.  All this time, in my mind I've been confusing Rancho San Rafael with Rancho Santa Fe.  D'oh!  I didn't realize you were just over the hill from me.

 

Interesting about the temperature difference.  I'm about 1,000 ft. higher than you are, which would account for some of it, especially in a month like this with a lot of offshore flow.   Otherwise, I'm guessing that different station calibration and placement may be a factor.

 

As for rainfall, especially in these events with more of a southerly component, I can get some orographic enhancement, but I see that BUR beat us both with 0.60" for the day...  :shrug:

 

The original Rancho San Rafael covers a lot of territory from Glendale to Pasadena.  My closest RAWS is Mt Washington but find that the readings can be quite different from my instruments; often Mt Washington is much warmer during the day and cooler at night.  I think the uniqueness of my particular location is due to several factors involving elevation, topography, wind flow.  Sunset Magazine identifies these climates as thermal belts [zone 23] favoring subtropical trees/ plants with often quite mild night temps during winter. 

 

There were reports of heavy showers out around the Selpulveda Pass and San Fernando Valley.  Burbank Airport is probably less than 10 miles from me but I only recorded 0.11 

 

If the forecast pans out, we may be getting several inches of rainfall this week.

[Dan the Weatherman]

A stretch of Pacific Coast Hwy (Hwy 1) has been closed in both directions due to rockslides in Ventura County from Las Posas to Yerba Buena, which is located between Malibu and Port Hueneme. It could be closed for a day or more, especially if it rains heavily later this week. I didn't realize that it rained that heavily in the area.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/141-2014-enso-thread/?p=47648

[Guest happ]

Thanks Richard, here's a bit more from Cliff Mass:

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

Northwest Cold Wave is California" Salvation

When sustained cold air moves into the Northwest, the frontal zone separating cold and warm air shift southward into California.   The temperature difference between the two air masses is associated with the jet stream, so it usually heads south at the same time.  Fronts bring clouds and rain.  So does the jet stream.   In short, with cold air dominating the Pacific Northwest, the frontal weather action and jet stream related storms head to California.

OUR clouds and precipitation are being sent down to those poor folks in drought-plagued California.  They desperately need the precipitation.  And we need the late fall sun . . .

 

Let's take a look at this grand exchange, by starting with the visible satellite image this afternoon.
Pretty much clear in Oregon and Washington, but California is enshrouded.  Good to see.

 

They need a lot more than this, but a good start. This is an weak to moderate El Nino year, and El Nino years (particularly strong ones) bring enhanced rainfall to southern CA.  The latest NWS Climate Prediction Center 3-month precipitation forecast is going with that idea

 

.  
66F
 

 

[Guest happ]

NAM STILL SHOWING MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE

SURFACE WHICH IS VERY ANNOYING AND DEFINITELY HAS ME CONCERNED WITH

RAIN AMOUNTS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

 

I seem to remember this happening in a similar event a few years ago, but I can't remember details or dates.  All I recall is that what was forecast to be 2 inches of rain ended up as something like 2 tenths because of the drying effects of the NE surface winds.

 

Hope that doesn't happen this time!

 

I dread this happening and recall offshore winds ruining other storms.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

Read about the Galaxy loss in Seattle yesterday.  The team played in 80 degrees 2 days before playing in freezing temps. 

[Guest happ]

Glad we have enterred the coolest/ wettest time of the year from December to March.  Looking forward to some chilly days and cold nights.  But mostly I am craving rain!

 

Picked up 0.07 overnight

0.75 rain year total

 

69/ 57

[richard mann]

-
"Weather Stories", quick digest more immediate outlooks, for both Sacramento and LA Oxnard.  (NWS-WFOs)
 
http://www.wrh.noaa....ory.php?wfo=sto
http://www.wrh.noaa....ory.php?wfo=lox

[Guest happ]

Does your rain year start Oct 1?

 

July 1

 

Loving it today

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/scripts/animate.php?root=sat_4km&list=VIS4.GIF.3.jpg,VIS4.GIF.4.jpg,VIS4.GIF.5.jpg,VIS4.GIF.6.jpg,VIS4.GIF.7.jpg,VIS4.GIF.8.jpg

[richard mann]

LA/ Oxnard NWS-WFO "Observation" Web-cam. 
 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/main.php?suite=observations&page=surface
 
And, Doppler surrounding.
 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/faq/radar.php?wfo=lox

Plus the "money" shot. - http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/pacsouthwest.php  (.. updating.)

More at the time of this post. —>  nws radar-mosaic psw.jpg
More full res..  —>  nws radar-mosaic psw full-res.png

[BLI snowman]

0.83" so far at LAX, good soaking.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/18-california-drought-weather-discussion-2014/page-5?do=findComment&comment=48031

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has been an all day light to moderate rain here in Orange with very few breaks, which has been perfect for moistening up the very dry soils due to the drought. I hope we see more days like today this season that feature beneficial rainfall!

[richard mann]

It has been an all day light to moderate rain here in Orange with very few breaks, which has been perfect for moistening up the very dry soils due to the drought. I hope we see more days like today this season that feature beneficial rainfall!

 

.. Looks like certainly a decent chance for some kind of second wave more fully north/ south with this setup. What's the local TV weather "Future Cast" or whatever, showing there where you are more south Dan. ?

 

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0300.jpg

[Guest happ]

A wonderful gift from mother nature via the subtropics.  The lower 2/3rds of the state generally received 1-2 inches though much less in San Diego county thus far.  Lost power for 5 hours which sort of surprised me since the winds haven't been that gusty [25-30mph]. 

 

Richard points to another piece of energy that could produce another round of moderate showers tomorrow night. 

 

65/ 57

1.38 [as of 8pm]

Dec: 1.45

Year [jul-jun]: 2.13

[Dan the Weatherman]

 

.. Looks like certainly a decent chance for some kind of second wave more fully north/ south with this setup. What's the local TV weather "Future Cast" or whatever, showing there where you are more south Dan. ?

 

http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day image/GOES-10-0300.jpg

NWS is forecasting the rain to continue into tomorrow morning, tapering off to a chance of showers tomorrow afternoon with a second round of showers tomorrow night.

[Guest happ]

It's raining in San Diego county also per NWS_SD

 

RAIN WAS OCCURRING OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS 
  EVENING...WITH A TEMPORARY DECREASE SINCE 8 PM OVER SAN DIEGO 
  COUNTY. YUCAIPA RIDGE...AT 9000 FEET...IS UP TO 6.93" IN THE PAST 24 
  HOURS...AND SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS IN MAINLY ELEVATED PARTS OF SAN 
  BERNARDINO COUNTY HAVE HAD 2-4 INCHES. AVERAGES ELSEWHERE ARE 
  GENERALLY ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. STRONG MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES FROM 
  THE OCEAN THROUGH ORANGE COUNTY...AND THIS WILL SPREAD AGAIN INTO 
  SAN DIEGO COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING FOR INCREASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
  THERE FOR AWHILE. ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH 
  LATE TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION. FOR 
  NOW...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES OVERNIGHT FROM THE MOUNTAINS 
  WEST TO THE COAST...WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE 
  BURN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SILVERADO BURN AREA IN THE SANTA ANA 
  MOUNTAINS. 
 

[Guest happ]

My question is how much snow would 6.93" of rain be?

 

YUCAIPA RIDGE...AT 9000 FEET...IS UP TO 6.93" IN THE PAST 24
HOURS...

 

[richard mann]

I can't tell whether or not this is a "joke" question or not "happ". 

 

— Whether it actually "rained" at 9000 ft, and the reporter used a template where entering the estimate, or whether it had been "snow", and you're asking for the rain equivalent.

[Guest happ]

I can't tell whether or not this is a "joke" question or not "happ". 

 

— Whether it actually "rained" at 9000 ft, and the reporter used a template where entering the estimate, or whether it had been "snow", and you're asking for the rain equivalent.

 

Unfortunately it is all rain even at that high elevation.  So what would have been the snow amount if 7 inches of rain had fallen as snow?

[richard mann]

 I see.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/709-december-2014-observations-for-the-pacific-northwest/?p=48184

[antipex]

Reading through this thread is fun – reminds me of the days leading up to and through a snow storm here in the PNW.

 

It also reminds me of the three years I spent in Cupertino, California, when I'd look up in the street lights for evidence of raindrops falling just like I do with snow here! But in all seriousness... I'm glad you're all getting some much-needed rain. Hopefully drought conditions improve in the coming months.

[richard mann]

.. down to even as much as only half of that, the wetter it had been or might have. Relative to what Chris has said here just above.

[Guest happ]

More light stratiform showers today especially late in the day [still raining].  No significant problems with rock slides/ mud but heavier showers tonight could cause problems.  Otherwise a delightful storm for all of California. 

 

66/ 58

 

day: 0.32

storm: 1.70

season: 2.45

[Alan]

I've received about 5" rain since yesterday morning (3.35" falling yesterday) when the rain started - mostly a continuous moderate rain briefly turning heavy or in the other direction to a light rain / drizzle. On and off raining heavily tonight. Flash flood watch still on until 4am.

 

Quite warm for December rain at a steady 48F since yesterday.

 

Yucaipa ridge is a little south of me on the face of the San Gorgonio wilderness and rises pretty quickly straight up from the valley and if I'm not mistaken is pretty much facing SW.

 

In my experience with large storms when the snow level is steady let's say around 5000' areas below that like Crestline at 4200' (lake Gregory) will get as much as 10" rain while up here around 6000' we'll get around 2 to 3 feet snow.

[Alan]

Since July 1st I've received 4.9" rain. I've now received more than that entire amount in the last 36 hours.

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has been raining off and on here in Orange since this afternoon, with more frequent and heavier showers here this evening. Some of the showers this evening were heavier than the rain that fell yesterday, which was mostly light to moderate. I will post a storm total probably sometime later tomorrow when the rain comes to an end. I haven't even checked my gauge yet, but from almost all day rain yesterday and a good part of today, I am sure that the total is approaching an inch, maybe even more.

[TT-SEA]

San Diego has received 1.77 inches of rain just overnight alone and over 2.5 inches since Tuesday.

 

Awesome storm down there!

 

A thorough soaking for everyone.   Hopefully this is the start of a wet Nino winter down there.   I think Jan-Mar might be very wet in typical Nino fashion.

[Alan]

I topped out at 6.85" - 2 day total and doesn't look like there'll be more. Yucaipa ridge at 9000' shows 14.5"!!

 

Warmest December rain I've experienced here with temps at 48 the entire two days. Usually a warm winter rain event is closer to 40F at my elevation. Dropped to 43F this am which felt crisp and has stayed there all day.

[Guest happ]

Nothing here yesterday daytime or evening.  All the activity was south and east.  Storm total just 1.30".  Not exactly the gully-washer that was forecast, but I'll still take it.

 

I think the bulk of the moisture was to our east and south yesterday.  I drove home from Santa Fe Springs along the 5 and ran into some fairly heavy showers but it was just lightly raining when I got home.  Didn't have time to check the gauge this morning but from a distance it didn't look like much.

 

I am very encouraged by the fact that a huge ridge hasn't quickly developed over California.

[Guest happ]

I topped out at 6.85" - 2 day total and doesn't look like there'll be more. Yucaipa ridge at 9000' shows 14.5"!!

 

Warmest December rain I've experienced here with temps at 48 the entire two days. Usually a warm winter rain event is closer to 40F at my elevation. Dropped to 43F this am which felt crisp and has stayed there all day.

 

Very impressive!

[Guest happ]

Some photos of flash flooding in San Jacinto Valley and other parts of California.

 

http://www.firehouse.com/news/11786374/dozens-rescued-from-flash-floods-in-california-firefighters-assist

 

71/ 57

Day: 0.05

December: 1.82

Year [jul-jun]: 2.50

[halofromajo]

Well now I see the GFS ensemble is going nuts again next thurs.....

[Dan the Weatherman]

Exactly 2" of rain fell here in Orange with the big storm Tuesday and Wednesday. This is the most rain I have received since the storm that occurred at the end of February / beginning of March. It definitely has been a good soaker here and has essentially ended the fire season for the fall and probably winter as well as long we continue to receive more beneficial rains.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I topped out at 6.85" - 2 day total and doesn't look like there'll be more. Yucaipa ridge at 9000' shows 14.5"!!

 

Warmest December rain I've experienced here with temps at 48 the entire two days. Usually a warm winter rain event is closer to 40F at my elevation. Dropped to 43F this am which felt crisp and has stayed there all day.

Last night (Wednesday) at one point it was between 64 and 65 degrees here in Orange and stayed in the low-mid 60's for most of the night. That is certainly a very mild air mass for this time of year, especially with a rainy pattern, even though these moist air masses are usually warmer than a dry air mass. It could easily be in that same temperature range here in my area with a moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event at this point in the season.

 

It is cooler tonight with a current temp of 54 or 55, depending on which thermometer I am looking at.

[Guest happ]

It's great news for you guys.  How's the snow pack doing?

 

Snow pack should be good but the freezing level has been quite high this week.  Local snow resorts got heavy amounts of rain so the amount of snow that they were making may be ruined until it gets cold enough to make snow again.

 

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-1204-rain-drought-20141205-story.html

[Guest happ]

The 10 day Euro looks dull for my area but plenty wet for California.

 

I am feeling a bit more optimistic that the models will verify another storm late next week.  In the meantime the zonal flow is bringing in light showers off and on thru the weekend.

 

68/ 56

[Dan the Weatherman]

Just before dark it looked as if it may rain a bit here in Orange, but the clouds broke up somewhat after dark. There may be a couple of showers in the area overnight with most of the action over San Luis Obispo County and nearby areas. The potential for a big storm with lower snow levels is certainly there for later next week, and that would make the ski resort operators and related businesses happy if it comes to pass.

[Guest happ]

Interesting summary of latest storm from Dan Gudgel & Steve Johnson [Fresno]

 

 

Wx HEADLINES: The biggest multi-day storm in years for widespread portions of CA is exiting the region as the moist onshore flow pattern winds down. This past storm on Tue/Wed was the biggest 2 day event for portions of CA in several years, with San Francisco a prime example. The storm produced 3.24 inches in San Francisco on Tue/Wed which was the largest storm accumulation since the 2 day event on Jan 25/26 2008 when 3.57 inches fell. The accumulated storm totals for the 2 day Tue/Wed event are impressive for many regions, and not as expected for other regions. Even in the regions which recorded the highest precip storm totals, the runoff into reservoirs has only been a modest gain, because the extended drought has depleted the pipeline so dramatically that much of the precip is being absorbed. A closer look at inflow into Folsom Lake shows an inflow gain from 2,735cfs on Dec 3^rd that peaked up to 12,900cfs on Dec 4^th and has declined back down to about 5,200cfs Friday morning. Folsom showed a net gain of 28,000 acre feet since Dec 1. We are thankful for what was gifted to CA from the recent storm, we just need 10 more of those type of storms! We do have another storm arriving Friday with continued showers into Saturday morning from a weak system passing to the north which will add some additional welcomed rain/snow for the Sierra. Forecast charts indicate an active storm track for CA on Thu, Dec 11^th continuing overnight into Fri morning. Heavy precip is suggest for all NORCAL and portions of CENCAL. The GFS Fantasyland Forecast range into Week #2 continues to show an active storm track into CA accompanied by colder air with the possible threat of Frost on the clear nights. These cold nights do NOT originate from either ARCTIC nor Polar airmass intrusion, but rather from cold continental airmasses arriving from the interior PACNW diving southward into CA with strong radiational overnight cooling if and when clear skies are present. Specific timing details are rough estimates, with best chances for precip on Mon, Dec 14^th, Thu, Dec 18^th and a big, wet, cold storm progged on Fri, Dec 19^th into Sat, Dec 20^th. Frosty mornings are possible Fri, Dec 12^th, Mon Dec 15^th, Tue Dec 16^th, Wed Dec 17^th and again with the coldest night on Sat, Dec 20^th with widespread possible Critical Temps below 28°. This year is in stark contrast to last year at this time when an ARCTIC airmass was plunging CA into the deep Freeze of 2013! Remember that?

 

Deluge Tue/Wed; Northern Sierra/Tahoe/Reno/Carson City/SAC

Since last weekend, portions of the Northern Sierra and around Tahoe have received almost 10 inches of precip (purple shading), with most areas receiving 1-5 inches. Some of this precip fell as snow with snow levels varying between 5K and 8.5K during both storms. Ski Resorts snowfall ranged from 14 to 33 inches. Respectable amts even made it over the Sierra Crest into the Reno area as personally witnessed on Tuesday. Spillover does not always occur and the rainshadow of the Sierra Crest near Tahoe usually causes more precip to occur along and west of the Crest than east of the Crest. However on Tuesday the conditions satisfied much of the criteria necessary for spillover into the Reno/Carson City metro areas; an upper level jet positioned over or just south of Tahoe, a low level southerly jet full of a rich supply of subtropical moisture supplied by, an Atmospheric River, a mid level Jet aligned SW to W, high amts of Convective/frontal lifting in addition to Orographic lift. All these conditions were met to a certain extent, but the strong southerly flow and high PWAT deep moisture allowed the precip to spillover into the Reno/Carson City area with a vengeance. Driving over Donner Pass on Tuesday, we saw the snowlevels near 6.5K on the western slopes, then extend all the way down into Reno on the eastern slopes late Tuesday afternoon. Quite an extraordinary event to witness firsthand. Then the next day, torrential rains and Flash Flooding witnessed Wednesday along the I-80 corridor were an even more impressive sight as “training” of several Thunderstorms produced continuous, non-stop torrential downpours accompanied with hail and lightning from Donner Pass westward to SAC. Blue Canyon recorded over 5.50 inches on Wednesday, with 4.40 inches at Auburn and 4+ inches into SAC metro at Orangevale. What a massive traffic jam thru SAC on Wednesday! These precip totals pale by comparison to the hefty amts recorded along the Central Coast Santa Lucia’s with Mining Ridge recording 7.44 inches on Wednesday alone and yet downwind the infamous rainshadow virtually halted rainfall from reaching into the SJV, with Madera only recording 0.02 inch and FAT with zero! That is an extreme example of what rainshadowing can do.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT for CA

 

Site Record Old Record

Redding 1.39 inches 1.14 set in 1994

Sacramento 2.20 inches 1.39 set in 1994 Smashes the previous record by 37%

LA Dwntwn 1.21 inches 1.10 set in 1961

LAX 1.12 inches 0.73 set in 1966 Smashes the previous record by 34%

Long Beach 1.04 inches 0.79 set in 1961

Lancaster 1.14 inches 0.45 set in 1961 Smashes the previous record by 60%

Palmdale 1.20 inches 0.46 set in 1961 Smashes the previous record by 62%

Sandberg 1.49 inches 1.07 set in 1961

Camarillo 1.15 inches 0.64 set in 1961 Smashes the previous record by 44%

Oxnard 1.28 inches 1.19 set in 1928 Beats an 86 year old record

[Guest happ]

NWS_LA is forecasting rain for late in the week rather than patiently waiting for a 100% guarantee.  Great news if it verifies!

 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory.php?wfo=lox

A storm system will move across the region late next week. Although timing is uncertain, confidence is high that this storm will bring a significant rain event to Southwest California Thursday into Friday. South winds will increase as a cold front approaches the area on Thursday with strong winds possible in the mountains. Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected for several hours as the front moves over the area, and thunderstorms will be possible. As the front moves away from the area, colder air will bring lowering snow levels to the area, and snow will be possible between 4,000 and 5,000 feet late Friday. As this storm approaches, large West to NW swell will move into the waters, building to 13 to 18 feet across the outer waters. This will bring high surf to area beaches on the Central Coast on Thursday, and to beaches south of Point Conception on Friday. The large surf will likely persist through Saturday.

 

58°