California Weather/ Climate

[richard mann]

.. If more broadly speaking and with certainly considering your guys', apparently more "decent" fortune over the past day and a half or so more south, and more where considering what we more north are, ....

 

".. Some cover, at least" ... where looking at things more current.

 

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

 

— Things (back to more general.) not looking "too" terrible. .. Things cold still retracting while at the same time moving more slowly east, per my view. So with looking at things more south of south (as it were.), i.e. the moisture south of Southern CA, Baja and adjacent at this point, more warm, .. could, still (even.) migrate more northward. ...

[Alan]

.50" last night. 19.4" for the year and 16.5" snow.

[richard mann]

.. Some snow in places in the Sierras. Central / Southern Central.

[Dan the Weatherman]

.20" fell here in Orange from yesterday's little storm.

[Guest happ]

It's an interesting pattern for January that southern California is in.  I guess you'll take the rain no matter how you can get it.

 

It is encouraging that these lows are close by but limited in moisture without the jet stream.

 

L: 58

[Guest happ]

High clouds that may lower tonight; rain chances look slim.

 

L: 62

[richard mann]

-

.. Basically as I view things "happ", you guys got what you did just over the past few days, with the cold—ultimately more secondary / .. and that had been forecast previous to its having done—having moved south more directly, more near west out over the Pacific, .. having worked to generate the lower pressure that it had, in turn working to spin up the precip. that you got, and with that cold's ultimately having offset the warmer and wetter air more south.

 

— Of course and if here again, precip. generation with this setup also made it to in and over Mexico.

 

.. This all with otherwise looked at and occurring at the same time, colder air's more over-all and more general recession still daily more northward at this point. 

 

— This all, with my view otherwise, where looking at the idea of "more" rain / precip., if where considering a "more fully north/ south perspective and scope, and if I'm correct where considering my own more general prognostication here, .. new and fresh cold more primary from the north, being set to begin to move and spread daily more south on Saturday. 

[Guest happ]

Some thunder here around 3:00 - 3:30 p.m.  Only .04" rain.

 

Just when I though this entire event would be a big zero, a quick-moving thuderstorm moved through late this afternoon.  Not much moisture but nice change nonetheless.

 

68 / 61

0.08

[Dan the Weatherman]

Just when I though this entire event would be a big zero, a quick-moving thuderstorm moved through late this afternoon.  Not much moisture but nice change nonetheless.

 

68 / 61

0.08

I didn't even realize there were any thunderstorms around here, but I noticed that we were on the backside of the low as the clouds were moving toward the south or southwest. There were dark clouds to the west and northwest of here, so there appeared to be at least some scattered showers around. It sprinkled and rained very lightly off and on last night here in Orange, but it didn't amount to anything measurable, and there wasn't any rain here this afternoon.

[Alan]

Total of .25". .1" last night and a surprise .15" this morning which was a wintry mix with a temp of 36F.

[Alan]

Ending January with 1.45" rain and no measurable snow. Nothing in the forecast or even long range for SoCal. Sad indeed.

[Dan the Weatherman]

January brought a rainfall total of 1.13", which was much better than 2013 when nothing fell here. This is still drier than average for January, but we actually fared better than the Bay Area, but of course the major downside of that is that the Sierra didn't receive much snow. 

 

I hope we figure out soon what exactly is causing this terrible drought. I am still wondering if there is the possibility that the recent elevated pollution levels in China has modified the weather patterns in the north Pacific, and that the soot from the pollution may be landing on the Arctic sea ice, darkening its surface, and causing a more rapid melting and warming in that region in recent years. There has been some speculation recently that the Arctic warming has led to a weakening of the polar jet, causing it to become more amplified and more meandering rather than stronger and somewhat more zonal as the temperature contrast between the equatorial Pacific and the Arctic has decreased in the last few years or so.

[richard mann]

January brought a rainfall total of 1.13", which was much better than 2013 when nothing fell here. This is still drier than average for January, but we actually fared better than the Bay Area, but of course the major downside of that is that the Sierra didn't receive much snow. 

 

I hope we figure out soon what exactly is causing this terrible drought. I am still wondering if there is the possibility that the recent elevated pollution levels in China has modified the weather patterns in the north Pacific, and that the soot from the pollution may be landing on the Arctic sea ice, darkening its surface, and causing a more rapid melting and warming in that region in recent years. There has been some speculation recently that the Arctic warming has led to a weakening of the polar jet, causing it to become more amplified and more meandering rather than stronger and somewhat more zonal as the temperature contrast between the equatorial Pacific and the Arctic has decreased in recent years.

 

If of more incidental note here Dan. More attached to your more secondary comments here above. I know what it is. I feel at least. I'm working on a post (maybe a few.) in which I'll be working to explain what, more specifically. This, toward the idea of tacking them in to the thread that I'd initiated back on the 20th of Jan., titled .. "the why of where we are". This, if with with what I'm putting together, my focusing on the patterning more generally, that we've been seeing more during the first month winter this year, than the drought more specifically. That patterning certainly having been indicative of other previous to it, and so, the continuation of the drought perhaps more. 

 

— But more basically, it's the "timing" where looking at the different main elements of cold air mass movement along with distribution, moved through and looked at as cycles, more inner-seasonal. .... In fact what I look at mainly toward generating the main colder air mass focused projections that I do regularly. Submitted to the "World" section, with their being more synoptic level projections. 

[Guest happ]

Temperatures were above normal [esp minimums] during January but much cooler than Jan 2014 and wetter also.

 

Jan 2015

 

Ave Max: 72.9 [norm: 69

Ave Min: 54.6 [norm: 50

Mean: 63.7

 

Hi Max: 85

Lo Max: 58

Hi Min: 63

Lo Min: 40

 

Rain: 1.44

Year [jul-jun]: 7.07

Days: 4

[richard mann]

-
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html
 
All cold pressing south at this point.
 
— Less dense more south, more dense more new and fresh north.  
 
.. If with a more decreasing over-all force of movement—not necessarily a bad thing (can just lend to a more broad-based massing.), .. through the 5th.

[richard mann]

http://www.proxigee.com/150201_wx_story_Sto-t.png 
 
Confidence is building that a pattern change will occur this week to more reflect our wet season that went AWOL in January. Tonight through Tuesday night, weak disturbances break down the upper ridge with some light rain across our northern areas. By late in the week a broad trough is forecast to shift the ridge eastward and bring some much needed rain to the area in the form of an atmospheric river. The term “atmospheric river” is a general term to describe a strong and persistent flow of atmospheric water vapor that is associated with heavy precipitation. The term “Pineapple Express” is a type of atmospheric river that generates over the waters adjacent to the Hawaiian Islands. The origins of this look to be just north of the Hawaii, but still close. We won’t fault you if you use the term “Pineapple Express”. Keep your fingers and toes crossed!

 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/

[Guest happ]

 

 

Confidence is building that a pattern change will occur this week to more reflect our wet season that went AWOL in January. Tonight through Tuesday night, weak disturbances break down the upper ridge with some light rain across our northern areas. By late in the week a broad trough is forecast to shift the ridge eastward and bring some much needed rain to the area in the form of an atmospheric river. The term “atmospheric river” is a general term to describe a strong and persistent flow of atmospheric water vapor that is associated with heavy precipitation. The term “Pineapple Express” is a type of atmospheric river that generates over the waters adjacent to the Hawaiian Islands. The origins of this look to be just north of the Hawaii, but still close. We won’t fault you if you use the term “Pineapple Express”. Keep your fingers and toes crossed!

 

 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/

 

It is really hard to get any enthusiasm for winter weather but at least San Francisco should get some rain for the first time in over a month.

 

It was windy all night

L: 62

[richard mann]

hey "happ". 
 
.. yeh. I'm looking at maybe tomorrow, even maybe Wed., something perhaps with some luck .. from and with some of what's sitting to the West moving east this way more slowly. 
 
— This, although density of the main cold element along with its apparent force of movement right now are both fairly weak with looking at it more. 
 
.. Where looking at what is being more specifically within the graphic above—along with said more with the caption attached to it, .. more from Thurs. maybe more forward into the weekend, I've got main cold continuing to move and spread south through this period, and if with at the same time moving slowly more longitudinally east .. its general force of movement looked at more over-all increasing.
 
And so do see some amount of better potential here—as with the call more official above.

[richard mann]

(.. connected to the post of mine just above.)
 
 
.. Here's the most recent "Wx Story" out of the Sacramento WFO, ...
 
http://www.proxigee.com/150202-sto.jpg
 
 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/

Here below is the Office's "Special Weather Statement" posted for the greater area surrounding mine, after 3pm this afternoon.

AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (A PLUME OF CONCENTRATED MOISTURE) IS TAKING
AIM FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH WETTER
WEATHER IMPACTING OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START AROUND 7000 FT ELEVATION, NEAR SIERRA PASS LEVELS, ON
THURSDAY AND THEN RISE HIGHER OVER THE WEEKEND SO THIS PATTERN
WILL NOT CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO SNOW PACK. MODELS ARE STILL
VARIABLE IN TERMS OF EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT IT SHOULD BE
A DECENT RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF NORCAL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM, SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON STORM TRACK. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO UPDATE AS THE STORM GETS CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

IMPACTS:

* LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
* LIMITED ROAD PROBLEMS AS SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE
SIERRA PASS LEVELS
* OCCASIONAL POWER OUTAGES FROM BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
* POTENTIAL FOR DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR WILDFIRE BURN SCARS

TIMING AND STRENGTH:

* PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY FOR NORTHWEST CA AND WILL SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THE VALLEY MEASURING
1-4 INCHES AND 4-10 INCHES ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS
* HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRIDAY
* STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH VALLEY GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
 
With fortunes being the way they have, I won't be washing my car certainly.

 

— Key element of what I'd said suggested within my post above this one, potential more positive, and certainly for you guys more south, .. main colder air's still moving south at that point.

[richard mann]

-
Cliff Mass's (Prof. Atmospheric Science, UofW.), most recent online Blog post. General commentary on the potential "Express" thought to be lining up out over the Pacific currently. 
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-west-coast-atmospheric-faucet-will.html

[Guest happ]

-

Cliff Mass's (Prof. Atmospheric Science, UofW.), most recent online Blog post. General commentary on the potential "Express" thought to be lining up out over the Pacific currently. 

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-west-coast-atmospheric-faucet-will.html

 

Thanks for the blog post, Richard

 

Here's a comment/ qualifier about rainfall in Central California from NWS_SF

FINALLY...WORTH NOTING THAT THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVENT

  HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE VERY DRY NAM IN THE

  PAST TWO RUNS HAS BEEN TRENDING MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF

  SOLUTIONS. WHETHER OR NOT THE REASON IS THE DOMAIN OF THE NAM OR

  SOMETHING ELSE...IT IS NOW VERY CLEAR THE EXTREMELY DRY SOLUTIONS

  FROM THE NAM FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ARE OUTLIERS AND VERY

  UNLIKELY TO VERIFY. CONFIDENCE HAS ALSO INCREASED THAT THE

  HEAVIER RAIN BAND WILL NOW MAKE IT DOWN THROUGH MONTEREY BAY BY

  FRIDAY EVENING AND NOT SIMPLY STALL OUT TO THE NORTH. WOULD NOT

  BE SURPRISED IF QPF VALUES PRODUCED TODAY SHOW A BUMP UP COMPARED

  TO PREVIOUS PRODUCTS.

 

There's the possibility of up to 8 inches in coastal mountains [sonoma county southward.  I wish this event could make it into SoCal.  More of an onshore flow this morning with low fog/ haze near the ocean but clear/ warm inland.

 

12noon temps illustrate sharp inversion within  10 miles:

SANTA MONICA AIRPORT: 62

WOODLAND HILLS: 77

[Guest happ]

.............CLIMATE DATA FOR JAN 2015.............

 

 

                     AVG   AVG   AVG   NORM   MONTH  TOTAL  NORM   PRECIP                 

                    HIGH   LOW  MONTH  MONTH  XTRMS  PRECIP PRECIP % NORM

                    -----------------------------------------------------

 

L.A. DOWNTOWN       72.7  51.2  62.0  58.0   85/37   1.09   3.12    35%

L.A.X.                          68.8  50.9  59.8  56.7   83/36   1.25   2.71    46%

LONG BEACH AP       71.8  49.6  60.7  56.7   85/36   0.87   2.60    33%

BURBANK AP            71.5  47.5  59.5  54.8   85/31   1.11   3.53    31%

VAN NUYS AP         71.7  47.4  59.5  55.3   84/30   1.13   1.81    62%

WOODLAND HILLS   73.4  44.8  59.1  54.5   85/27   1.67   4.16    40%

 

This past month was the 6th warmest; way behind 1986.  Feb is certainly maintaining the trend of warmer than normal ad nausea.

[Dan the Weatherman]

This past month was the 6th warmest; way behind 1986.  Feb is certainly maintaining the trend of warmer than normal ad nausea.

Even though last month was warm, I don't think it was quite as warm as last January. At least this January was wetter here in Socal (still below average) than last January, but the same can't be said for Norcal, though.

[Dan the Weatherman]

This upcoming storm, despite the very high snow levels, should at least help to fill some of the reservoirs for our water supply, as well as bring much needed water for all the native plant and animal life.

[richard mann]

-

Cliff Mass's Blog entry posted this evening, looking ahead at the potential ...

 

 "Triple Atmospheric River Event to Hit the West Coast"

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/triple-atmospheric-river-event-to-hit.html

[richard mann]

.. 3-hrly sub-regional graphic forecast, multi-parameter - NWS, Sacramento / Stockton north. 
 
http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/sto.php

 

http://www.proxigee.com/graphic_forecast_sto-t.jpg

 

("mouse over" initial 12 hours then check "Next Image" forward bottom element.)

[Guest happ]

Music to the ears of thirsty Californians per NWS_SF

 

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:50 AM PST THURSDAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST
  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE
  NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WILL FOCUS ALL ATTENTION IN NAILING DOWN THE
  DETAILS AS BEST AS WE CAN ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE
  REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND SUBSEQUENT
  PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK AND IMPORTANT
  NOTE...SOME OF THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE
  HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL MAY NOT ONLY BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTH BAY AND
  THE "WEALTH" OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE SPREAD DOWN THE ENTIRE
  COASTLINE. AS A RESULT...JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE COASTAL RANGES
  COULD RECEIVE UP TO 10" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENT. AGAIN...WE
  WILL BE LOOKING AT ALL OF THE LATEST AND WORK TO UPDATE THE
  FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

 

 

 

[richard mann]

More incidental here, of relative value only. More the why at this point, than the what.
 
.. In line with the main forecast projections that have been being posted for a few days now, more official, more specific timeframe focused, what I'm looking at is the idea that the main and stronger rainfall will be following a point at which I'm expecting colder air's main force of movement to begin to pick up again.  (related context)
 
— From later evening this evening, forward. This following a graduated decrease where considering this idea, having been more the case over the past to weeks or so.
 
.. Still doing so at this point if more meridionally, main cold's general expansion (having been moving and spreading) more, more south since the 1st having certainly been important to the current general setup:  more broad-based cold having moved south with this more decreased force of movement, with at the same time more through the 3rd, main colder air's having been moving at a somewhat more stepped up pace east; main patterning more zonal through yesterday - again, more at this point having begun to shift to more meridional. This transition, if with a more general flow of colder air east being maintained by degrees.
 
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

[Guest happ]

Another depressing reality is that it has been more like May instead of early February:  marine inversion.  Warm and hazy inland; chilly at the beach. 

 

The only taste of winter was in late December\ New Year's; several valley minimums at or below freezing.

 

A bit of a rain delay in San Francisco

[richard mann]

 

.. It started raining here, following a few hours of stronger wind, at 11:30 this morning. 

 

— Good strong rain.

[richard mann]

Rain down to Modesto / Merced. Even Fresno looks as if. To this point.

 

http://radar.weather...id=hnx&loop=yes
http://radar.weather...id=dax&loop=yes
http://radar.weather...id=vbx&loop=yes

[Dan the Weatherman]

Another depressing reality is that it has been more like May instead of early February:  marine inversion.  Warm and hazy inland; chilly at the beach. 

 

The only taste of winter was in late December\ New Year's; several valley minimums at or below freezing.

 

A bit of a rain delay in San Francisco

The air quality here in Orange County has just been plain awful for 2-3 days and yesterday was the absolute worst. Today it was better, but still somewhat hazy/smoggy.

[Guest happ]

Steve Johnson [Fresno]

 

 

 

The Good News and the Bad News…the meager Sierra Snowpack is at a CROSSROADS...heavy rains and high snow levels.

• THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, possibly strong; details below.
• Thunderstorm passing thru Madera at 4:20pm Friday afternoon, as the storm begins….see radar clip below
• The 12Z HPC QPF charts threw a monkey wrench into today’s forecast by tripling (3X) the Southern Sierra QPF for the next 3 days. This last minute change this morning meant a complete re-write of the most of the forecast Forecast! The 12Z QPF was just confirmed by the next model, so the big change this morning was not a fluke! The latest model is illustrated below with the previous 2 so you can observe the ‘Big Change’ to the forecast which occurred this morning!
• The Merced River is now expected to reach Flood Stage at the Pohono Bridge in YNP. Flooding is also expected on the Eel, Navarro, and upper Sacramento Rivers. Details below on how we’ll deal with the big surprise increase in QPF’s!

As the first system moves thru the region Friday night into Saturday morning, expecting to see the heaviest rainfall along the Eastside SJV while the Westside may get ‘rainshadowing’ from the Coast Range.

 

Southern Sierra QPF’s show Hetch Hetchy with 4.6 inches, YNP with 4.4 inches, Lake McClure 3.5 inches, Eastman Lake 2.7 inches, Friant 2.7 inches, Pine Flat 1.8 inches, Terminus 1.4 inches, Success 0.9 inch, Isabella 0.6 inch. There appears to be a major break-off line where the precip rapidly falls off in the Southern Sierra, as defined by the upper San Joaquin River…on the north side Shuteye Peak QPF shows about 3.5 inches while immediately south of Shuteye Pk on the other side of the river, Shaver Lake shows about 2.5 inches. While Dinkey Creek shows about 2.8 inches the north fork of the Kaweah shows about 1 inch less, dropping down to about 1 inch near Camp Nelson and down to about 0.6 inch near Isabella. Mammoth Pass shows about 3.5 inches, while the upper Tuolumne basin shows about 6.5 inches!

 

Freezing Levels for the Southern Sierra expected to remain above 10,000 south of Friant thru overnight Saturday, then drop down to near 8,500ft near Friant to 10,000ft at Isabella on Sunday and then the south end of the Sierra drop down to near 8,500ft on Monday.

 

 

The forecast models show the storm door remains wide open for the next several days as an impressive Atmospheric River stretches from Hawaii into California, finally bringing CA a much needed dose of liquid, and ending 5 painful weeks of a record-setting mid-winter dry period. For the 5^th consecutive Winter Season, January has been exceptionally dry for CA and January 2015 tops all 5 of those years in terms of dryness. Expecting the biggest storm since early December to reach into NORCAL as a persistent Atmospheric River ribbon streams onshore along with pieces of energy rippling thru the mean flow pattern. The soaking rains will be beneficial to the drought-stricken parts of NOR/CENCAL, however so much rain so quickly will increase the threat of flash flooding or mud or debris flows in some burn areas. Some minor updates below and inside the attached file.xlsx regarding the record-setting ‘June’uary and the Oct to Jan Water Year info. The inbound storm system is a double edged sword; on the one hand we welcome the precip, but on the other hand the warm Atmospheric River, full of subtropical moisture will produce heavy rainfall to high elevations, which is likely to have a severe impact upon the Sierra Snowpack below 8,000ft. If snowlevels near Tahoe hover around 8,000ft with a QPF of 2-6 inches of liquid, what’s left of the snowpack is likely going to be decimated. Elevations above 8,000 could receive 2 ft of heavy Sierra cement snowfall depending on location and elevation. However, if (big iffy) the upper Jet and/or cold front for some reason does not manage to reach into CENCAL with the associated cold air then the region receives much less precip, and the snowlevels stay high. If this occurs then most Tahoe and Southern Sierra Ski Resorts could be severely affected…game over, goodbye winter, sell your skis or plan on skiing on the upper portion of Mammoth Mtn for the rest of the season. This second scenario would be catastrophic to the lower elevations of the Sierra snowpack and for the winter moving forward, we’d have to essentially start over. The Southern Sierra Crest above 8-9,000ft should look for a major SNOW DUMP! Thankfully, recent models are trending for the more southerly track of the Jet and cold air arrival which is good news, but there is still a great deal of concern and skepticism due to the presence of the High Pressure ridge, the orientation of the shortwaves and what we have experienced this season thus far. The Feather River QPF from Matt Winston shows up to 3.8 inches of rainfall occurring Friday with the snowlevel at 8,000ft with another 2 inches on Sunday with the snowlevel also at 8,000ft. Since most of the Feather basin below 7,500ft would receive a warm rain of up to 7.7 inches between now and Tuesday, most if not all of the current 4 inches of the Snow Water Content in the Feather basin would end up into Lake Oroville in addition to the 7.7 inches of rainfall from the storm period, which equals almost 12 inches of liquid moving downhill. Watch for huge inflow spike increases into both Shasta and Oroville Lakes over the weekend and into early next week. There is plenty of capacity storage space available to contain all the runoff into the Sierra reservoirs. Expect much smaller inflow increases on the mainstem rivers to the south of Tahoe/American River basin. On the bright side, this is far better than another dry week, it’s better to get the rainfall rather than nothing. Below is an awesome illustration of the 700mb Atmospheric River riding along the SW flow pattern from Hawaii;

 

[richard mann]

-
.. Central California 5-7 min. Vis imagery, for today.  (Direct from source: UofW. ".. updating".)
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km ca+today   (Takes a few moments to load in.)
 
http://www.proxigee.com/150206_22k_ca_1km-t.jpg
 2200z more static.  (Click on the image.)

[Dan the Weatherman]

Tonight's satellite pic shows a series of low latitude storms off the central and southern CA coast, that appear to be travelling along either a southern branch of the jet stream or the subtropical jet, and it is the most defined flow at that latitude that I have seen for a while. This looks like a classic El Nino pattern right now, and I am really surprised that there aren't more chances of rain for Socal by the looks of that satellite photo. I think Socal at least has a chance of seeing the southern portion of these storms and I am wondering if the models aren't correctly picking up on this flow pattern. The particular storm that I have my eye on is the one at 150W.

[Guest happ]

Light shower an hour ago but rain prospects are quite low down here compared to Northern Cal.   

 

69 / 54

0.02

[Dan the Weatherman]

All I got here in Orange was about a 2 minute sprinkle.

 

At least Norcal got a good amount of rain and very high elevation snow with this system. It's too bad that this isn't the beginning of a more active pattern for the entire state. In a normal year prior to the 2011-12 season, this would have probably been the start of a wet pattern that would have lasted a week or more. It seems that only two storms in a row can affect the state in the winter before the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) or the subtropical ridge builds back in again for weeks on end. There is something very abnormal about the behavior of this pattern in recent years.

[richard mann]

-
.. Four and a quarter inches in the bucket.=Overnight and into the day Friday.
 
(Careful with this, both above and following here, though. .. With which ever, of any one of a number of different ideas considered.)
 
— Only a "significant" amount, albeit. ... In fact somewhat typical of what we can get—more normally. 
 
... Paradise [CA], sits on an initial crest level, of a ridge that extends further upward. .. At about 1750 ft [elv.], .. with orographic challenges presented incoming system energies, from both the west, and south.=Check the map here accessible following. - i-5 north.jpg

Average rainfall per annum: "plus 55 inches".

Main Climatology, Paradise, CA  -  http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?capara+nca

On the plus side, "fat" statistic. .. About "half" for February. .... All and all ("Ultimately."), a decent sign, leastwise.
 
(And TWIMC. "What's up. ? .. Gramma.?")

[Guest happ]

Yesterday I watched the Weather Channel [or at least had the station on] for several hours hoping they would report on the heavy rainfall in Northern Cal/ PNW.  Not one comment in their endless reporting of snowfall in the Northeast, specifically Boston.  Actually, I was lucky since the Weather Channel was scheduled to air nothing but non-weather related programs [i.e. 'Prospectors'] - what a waste it has become!  

 

Another cut-off low near Baja likely by late in the week; hopefully it will translate into rain for SoCal.

[Dan the Weatherman]

TWC has way too many documentaries anymore, as opposed to live weather coverage. They do go live more often when there is significant weather especially back east. I do like the show "Prospectors", but that should be on another network such as Discovery. TWC should cover weather 24/7 like it used to in the old days!

 

TWC used to be one of my main sources for weather information; today it is the Internet that is my main source due to all the weather-related sites that exist out there, including this forum.