May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

0.12 inches of rain for May here in Federal Way....Ouch!

 

 

2.10 inches here.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM backed off quite a bit with the rain on Sunday from its 12Z run.   

 

It will be interesting to see if the other 00Z runs follow suit.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS eliminated Oregon from the rain on Sunday afternoon into Monday.   

 

Still shows some rain from Kelso northward.   Does not look much for anyone though.  

[El Nina]

00Z GFS eliminated Oregon from the rain on Sunday afternoon into Monday.   

 

Still shows some rain from Kelso northward.   Does not look much for anyone though.

 

Things are finally going your way!

[TT-SEA]

Things are finally going your way!

 

It feels like its been forever!   Maybe since the Christmas Eve snowstorm?

 

Even this warm/dry May has been more cloudy and wet here than I would guess if just looking at the SEA data.    Normally we don't have 20 times the amount of rain as SEA... its more like 2 or 2.5 times on average.  

[TT-SEA]

SEA was -1 today!    The only day of the month below normal.   

 

BLI came in at -3 today... also the only day of the month below normal there.

[El Nina]

It feels like its been forever!   Maybe since the Christmas Eve snowstorm?

 

Even this warm/dry May has been more cloudy and wet here than I would guess if just looking at the SEA data.    Normally we don't have 20 times the amount of rain as SEA... its more like 2 or 2.5 times on average.

 

This has been a pretty cloudy and rainy May for being so warm,talk about getting robbed. We're due for some more dry and sun at any rate.

[TT-SEA]

This has been a pretty cloudy and rainy May for being so warm,talk about getting robbed. We're due for some more dry and sun at any rate.

 

Actually true in my area.  

 

Lately these record dry and/or warm months at PDX and SEA have been equally nice here.    Not this month.   

 

Does feel a little like being robbed.   Probably how Jesse feels going through deep troughing now with almost no rain or significant cold.  

[Jesse]

00Z GFS eliminated Oregon from the rain on Sunday afternoon into Monday.

 

Still shows some rain from Kelso northward. Does not look much for anyone though.

If the ridge keeps digging ahead of that trough like that, pretty soon we are going to have 90 degrees in the forecast on Saturday and a marine push at best the following day.

[TT-SEA]

If the ridge keeps digging ahead of that trough like that, pretty soon we are going to have 90 degrees in the forecast on Saturday and a marine push at best the following day.

 

Its only 36 hours away now... I doubt 90 on Saturday.

[El Nina]

Actually true in my area.  

 

Lately these record dry and/or warm months at PDX and SEA have been equally nice here.    Not this month.   

 

Does feel a little like being robbed.   Probably how Jesse feels going through deep troughing now with almost no rain or significant cold.

 

Wanna trade houses? I got a stunning view of Mt. Hood.

[Geos]

Little bit of convergence from Redmond on east this evening.

[El Nina]

Speaking of Mt. Hood, it snowed down to Timberline today. You can see a little dusting on the roof:

[Jesse]

Its only 36 hours away now... I doubt 90 on Saturday.

Well at least Sunday is trending drier. Crippling drought still on the table. Count the little victories.

[TT-SEA]

Little bit of convergence from Redmond on east this evening.

 

Just missing my area... to the north.

 

I would like to be in that c-zone right now.    Its during the week and at night... the best time to get summer rain out of the way and keep it green.   

[Deweydog]

Another 534dm heatwave at day nine...

[Jesse]

It’s still raining here, which is nice. Have picked up about 0.05”, which is five times more than PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Another 534dm heatwave at day nine...

 

 

Its a warmer/ridgier run than the 12Z GFS.     

[Jesse]

Its a warmer/ridgier run than the 12Z GFS.

Thank god.

[TT-SEA]

Good news for those wanting cold... the 00Z GEM is crazy troughy on days 9 and 10.  

 

I think some copious warm rain is what is needed... screw these cold troughs.    We need some 65-degree dewpoint downpours!  

 

Major internal conflict with that for the cold weather fans though... could get tons of rain but it would not be freezing cold which would be VERY disappointing. 

[TT-SEA]

Well at least Sunday is trending drier. Crippling drought still on the table. Count the little victories.

 

00Z WRF is not even that cloudy for Sunday afternoon...

 

[Front Ranger]

That has been the case the last few years during the warm season... particularly in the Puget Sound region.

 

Its very troughy this week.    But the temperatures have been about average up here.  

 

Phil was spot on with his prediction that troughing to return in a big way towards the end of the month.   It was a great call.

 

Eh, we shall see. It hasn't been big-time troughing...again, see 2008, 2011, or 2012 for examples of that this time of year.

 

May has been near-record warm and dry. Obviously that wasn't going to last forever and there would be a return to normalcy before we were well into summer.

[TT-SEA]

Eh, we shall see. It hasn't been big-time troughing...again, see 2008, 2011, or 2012 for examples of that this time of year.

 

May has been near-record warm and dry. Obviously that wasn't going to last forever and there would be a return to normalcy before we were well into summer.

 

 

500mb heights and 850mb temps have been solidly below normal since Monday afternoon.    And its a pretty deep trough over the West right now. 

 

   

[Jesse]

Good news for those wanting cold... the 00Z GEM is crazy troughy on days 9 and 10.  

 

I think some copious warm rain is what is needed... screw these cold troughs.    We need some 65-degree dewpoint downpours!  

 

Major internal conflict with that for the cold weather fans though... could get tons of rain but it would not be freezing cold which would be VERY disappointing. 

 

I don't care how we get it. But if we stay in a pattern with general troughing over us or close by, as opposed to a death ridge, the odds of a "warm" rain event go up too. 

 

A 60-degree DP soaker sounds lovely right now.

[Front Ranger]

Losing the 80s and gaining the 2010s is going to be earth shattering.

 

I remember something similar going into the 2010s...

[Front Ranger]

500mb heights and 850mb temps have been solidly below normal since Monday afternoon.    And its a pretty deep trough over the West right now. 

 

   

 

It's a big change from what's dominated the past 30+ days, but it's not "troughing in a big way".

 

But like I said, I do think it will deliver some more below normal days in the week ahead. 

[Phil]

Its a warmer/ridgier run than the 12Z GFS.

Cooler than the 18z, though. And multiple troughs in the D10-16 period with the offshore anticyclone/wave dispersion pattern holding steady.

[Jesse]

500mb heights and 850mb temps have been solidly below normal since Monday afternoon.    And its a pretty deep trough over the West right now. 

 

   

 

That's like the fifth time you've posted that map today dude. 

[TT-SEA]

I don't care how we get it. But if we stay in a pattern with general troughing over us or close by, as opposed to a death ridge, the odds of a "warm" rain event go up too. 

 

A 60-degree DP soaker sounds lovely right now.

 

 

Even I agree with that... I might sacrifice a weekend day just to get a region-wide warm rain event so everyone can relax.  

[Front Ranger]

I’m sure it will be cooler than that. I bet the majority of days will be cooler than average across the region over the next 3 weeks. Whether SEA/PDX end up cooler than average overall might depend on smaller scale factors.

 

If the HPRCC maps show a below normal June for most of the region on the 20th, I give you a passing grade. 

[Phil]

Cooler than the 18z, though. And multiple troughs in the D10-16 period with the offshore anticyclone/wave dispersion pattern holding steady.

And the 00z CMC is similar, except if finishes the first waveguide cycle faster, and is troughy after D7 instead of after D9 like the GFS.

 

Whether the warm-up lasts 2 days or 3 days is irrelevant in the big picture.

[TT-SEA]

That's like the fifth time you've posted that map today dude. 

 

Not quite... I just grab the most recent 500mb map.   So its incremented by 6 hours twice now since this morning!  

[TT-SEA]

Cooler than the 18z, though. And multiple troughs in the D10-16 period with the offshore anticyclone/wave dispersion pattern holding steady.

 

Definitely in between the 12Z and 18Z runs.  

[Front Ranger]

You are being unnecessarily rude. I would like to think you could disagree with my interpretation of the models the next few weeks without making a jab at my mental health. I expect that stuff from Matt but not you.

 

That's odd.

[Phil]

Eh, we shall see. It hasn't been big-time troughing...again, see 2008, 2011, or 2012 for examples of that this time of year.

 

May has been near-record warm and dry. Obviously that wasn't going to last forever and there would be a return to normalcy before we were well into summer.

I never forecasted “big-time” troughing.

 

So what are you referring to?

[Jesse]

Even I agree with that... I might sacrifice a weekend day just to get a region-wide warm rain event so everyone can relax.

Odds for such an event go up if we can move out of a pattern where that ridge keeps rearing its ugly head at every turn.

[Phil]

Lol, Jared would rather cut off his junk than admit I made a good forecast.

[TT-SEA]

I never forecasted “big-time” troughing.

 

So what are you referring to?

 

I used that term today in my praise of your forecast.  

[Front Ranger]

I never forecasted “big-time” troughing.

 

So what are you referring to?

 

Tim's words. "Troughing in a big way", which he attributed to you, twice.

[Front Ranger]

Lol, Jared would rather cut off his junk than admit I made a good forecast.

 

I'm totally shocked you would respond this way to not giving you credit before June has even started.

 

I would expect this from anyone else but you. Completely flabbergasted.