TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00Z GFS took away the wet system that the 12Z run showed for Wednesday and Thursday. The trough looks really pathetic on the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Is that crap headed this way? I don’t have the link to that product. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/ Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/Thanks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Nice improvement for next weekend on the 00Z GFS compared to the 12Z run. ULL limps here on Monday on the 00Z run. I want a soaking rain but I don't want the holiday weekend to be wet and cold. I am starting to think there will be almost no rain even here over the next 10 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Nice improvement for next weekend on the 00Z GFS compared to the 12Z run. ULL limps here on Monday on the 00Z run. I want a soaking rain but I don't want the holiday weekend to be wet and cold. I am starting to think there will be almost no rain even here over the next 10 days. This is sort of thinking got us into this mess in the first place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 This is sort of thinking got us into this mess in the first place.So true. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00z was much troughier for late in the week than the 18z. System on Sunday looks wetter too, and cooler on Tuesday. Score!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00z was much troughier for late in the week than the 18z. System on Sunday looks wetter too, and cooler on Tuesday. Score!!If you think the trend is good for next week then you are fooling yourself. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 If you think the trend is good for next week then you are fooling yourself. I’m just glad to see the GFS sticking to its guns for a somewhat wet (~0.1”) system on Sunday. That would be our biggest rainfall in almost two and a half months. Ridge Tuesday looks less impressive and there is a bigger crash afterward compared to the 18z run. Those are facts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 I’m just glad to see the GFS sticking to its guns for a somewhat wet (~0.1”) system on Sunday. That would be our biggest rainfall in almost two and a half months. Ridge Tuesday looks less impressive and there is a bigger crash afterward compared to the 18z run. Those are facts.I guess ignoring the 18Z run would help with false hope. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 It's pretty spotty but the WRF does show at least a bit of rain over many areas this weekend. Hopefully the fires to the NW of here get a good dousing. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 I guess ignoring the 18Z run would help with false hope. I try to look at all the models, not just cherry pick the ones that feed my perverse obsession with drought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00z ensembles look good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00z ensembles look good. C0C5CB2F-132A-4F94-BE19-54E0B73D7575.png Correlation between a wet and wild September and the goodies later on?? ANALog???? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Correlation between a wet and wild September and the goodies later on?? ANALog????Generally a cool, wet and active September is a great sign for winter. Would be nice if we could get that lucky. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 GEM shows a quick end to the weak ridge on Tuesday as well, with a decent trough moving in by Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 I try to look at all the models, not just cherry pick the ones that feed my perverse obsession with drought.Straw man!! And I always ignore the 18Z. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Correlation between a wet and wild September and the goodies later on?? ANALog????It would mean Jim would be back and posting about all the “goodies” 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Straw man!! And I always ignore the 18Z.If the shoe fits... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 If the shoe fits... That makes no sense. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00z ensembles look good. C0C5CB2F-132A-4F94-BE19-54E0B73D7575.pngSummer might be over! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Total precip per the 00Z ECMWF through Monday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00Z ECMWF shows just shy of 90 at PDX on Tuesday. A couple degrees cooler than the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Total precip per the 00Z ECMWF through Monday... Definite improvement over the 12z. Much better than the reverse at this stage in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 82 at PDX on Wednesday per the 00Z ECMWF... a couple degrees warmer than the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Definite improvement over the 12z. Much better than the reverse at this stage in the game. Actually less rain on the 00Z run for the Seattle area compared to the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Actually less rain on the 00Z run for the Seattle area compared to the 12Z run.A little better down here. As you have said 22,546,908,451 times this year we probably need it more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 A little better down here. As you have said 22,546,908,451 times this year we probably need it more. I don't think .07 or .10 really matters. We all need a good 2-inch event right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 I don't think .07 or .10 really matters. We all need a good 2-inch event right now.Anything is better than nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00Z ECMWF shows that any rain with the late week system is focused in King County in a weak c-zone after the trough passes. The 00Z run is totally dry south of Chehalis... the 12Z run was wet down to Salem... the 00Z run last night was impressively wet for everyone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Anything is better than nothing. Seems very close to nothing for all practical purposes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Shockingly bad air quality around Seattle tonight given the onshore flow, with better air quality to the north and south. Is this what the convergence zone does when there's smoke in the mix? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Shockingly bad air quality around Seattle tonight given the onshore flow, with better air quality to the north and south. Is this what the convergence zone does when there's smoke in the mix? Possibly. Should improve by mid-morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Seems very close to nothing for all practical purposes.0.10” would be our biggest precip event in two and a half months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 Nice improvements on the 00Z ECMWF for Labor Day weekend compared to its 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 0.10” would be our biggest precip event in two and a half months. And still meaningless in the big picture. And that is all the ECMWF shows for the entire run down there. Most of next week and weekend now looks sunny and warm.... even here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 And still meaningless in the big picture. And that is all the ECMWF shows for the entire run down there. Most of next week and weekend now looks sunny and warm.... even here.What one Euro run shows is meaningless in the big picture too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 00Z ECMWF shows a perfect Labor Day weekend. Sunny all 3 days... and getting warmer each day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 25, 2018 Report Share Posted August 25, 2018 I don’t even get what we’re arguing about Tim. Do you wish I was more unhappy? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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