August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

What one Euro runs shows is meaningless in the big picture too.

 

OK.

 

Lets check back in 10 days and see how much precip fell at PDX.  

[TT-SEA]

I don’t even get what we’re arguing about Tim. Do you wish I was more unhappy?

 

We are arguing?

[TT-SEA]

Summer might be over!

 

I don't think so. 

[Jesse]

We are arguing?

Seems like you’ve had some sort of counterpoint to everything I have said tonight. Even if it wasn’t directly addressed to you.

[TT-SEA]

Seems like you’ve had some sort of counterpoint to everything I have said tonight. Even if it wasn’t directly addressed to you.

 

Even yesterday... it looked like we were heading into a pattern with rain and clouds on 8 or 9 of the next 10 days in my area.    The ECMWF and GFS showed exactly that.     

 

Now the models show we might have some showers on Sunday and Thursday here but most of the days look sunny and dry.     Huge change.    

 

ECMWF has evolved from showing over 3 inches here over the next 10 days to almost nothing over the last 3 runs.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be enough precip Sunday to end SLE's dry streak. Going to be a close call. Could see us getting .1-.2" up here...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least down here it has never looked like an overly wet pattern. Something like the 2" soaker Tim referenced, just isn't going to happen here before mid-September, pretty much ever (September 2013 notwithstanding.). 

 

In my experience the first rains of fall if they occur in September are almost always light, with maybe a good storm or two at the end of the month...

[TT-SEA]

At least down here it has never looked like an overly wet pattern. Something like the 2" soaker Tim referenced, just isn't going to happen here before mid-September, pretty much ever (September 2013 notwithstanding.).

 

In my experience the first rains of fall if they occur in September are almost always light, with maybe a good storm or two at the end of the month...

Not up here... 3 inches over the next 10 days actually made sense given the last 2 months have been so dry.

 

It happens... we had over 6 inches of rain in August 2015 after a long dry period.

[Jesse]

Down to 48 this morning. Definitely a taste of early fall.

[Phil]

Can’t wait until this hits the US markets in September.

 

Looks like a nice improvement, even over the Red Meteobridge Pro microserver.

 

http://meteobridge.com/wiki/index.php/Meteobridge_NANO

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Lovely mix of high clouds and thick smoke here.     <_>

[ShawniganLake]

Lovely mix of high clouds and thick smoke here. <_>

Just started raining here

[Jesse]

Wouldn’t call this a ridgy look to the models. EPS is similar.

 

[Phil]

The PNW is a little slice of heaven right through the clown range on the 06z. And the GFS has a warm surface temperature bias.

 

[Jesse]

The PNW is a little slice of heaven right through the clown range on the 06z. And the GFS has a warm surface temperature bias.

 

Looks like the vortex is gone.

[Phil]

Some crazy rainfall totals in Hawaii w/ Lane.

 

Will they make a run a Harvey’s 60” record?

 

[Jesse]

We had a much warmer than average September following a hot summer, and a mostly crappy Niño winter with one notable event in mid-February in - no surprise - 1994.

[Phil]

Looks like the vortex is gone.

Yeah, it flips on this run. I’d rather save that for winter, though, and build the cold pool now.

[Phil]

We had a much warmer than average September following a hot summer, and a mostly crappy Niño winter with one notable event in mid-February in - no surprise - 1994.

That was coming off the second strongest solar cycle in at least 400 years, though. The BDC/O^3 transports were crippled.

 

The early 1990s winters were “saved” for you guys thanks to volcanism and a residual -AMO/-AMM cell mode, which was transitioning to its multidecadal positive state (opposite of now...it’s transitioning negative again).

[MossMan]

Smoke

[Farmboy]

Rain

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 39 last night. Definitely close to fall...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had a much warmer than average September following a hot summer, and a mostly crappy Niño winter with one notable event in mid-February in - no surprise - 1994.

 

There was also a 2-4" snow event in early December 1994... We have had much worse winters.

 

Also the end of October was very active with record rainfall and November was chilly. 

[Jesse]

There was also a 2-4" snow event in early December 1994... We have had much worse winters.

Indeed. Your stable of favored analogs proves this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Indeed. Your stable of favored analogs proves this.

 

Tim would have been in absolute heaven the first 10 days of February 1995. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Indeed. Your stable of favored analogs proves this.

 

Still looking for the perfect mix of low solar, +QBO, -NAO, +LGBTQ, -ICE, and +ENSO. With special nods to sitting presidents being in legal trouble. Unfortunately 74 and 98 we were going into strong Ninas...I'll have to research the 1860s a bit better for possible analogs...

[TT-SEA]

Tim would have been in absolute heaven the first 10 days of February 1995. 

 

 

That means lots of other people were in heaven as well.   

 

I remember January - March of 1995... it was insanely wet in San Diego.    Lake Hodges dam was roaring over the top and there was lots of flooding.

[Jesse]

Still looking for the perfect mix of low solar, +QBO, -NAO, +LGBTQ, -ICE, and +ENSO. With special nods to sitting presidents being in legal trouble. Unfortunately 74 and 98 we were going into strong Ninas...I'll have to research the 1860s a bit better for possible analogs...

First President to be impeached. Your namesake.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First President to be impeached. Your namesake.

 

Yes, as with Clinton, it was mostly just politics...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will point out, the 12z GFS is looking pretty dry...

[TT-SEA]

I will point out, the 12z GFS is looking pretty dry...

 

 

The mid to late week system continues its disappearing act.    Although its easier to see the trends if you ignore the 06Z and 18Z runs.   

 

Now there is another trough approaching Saturday on the 12z run.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The mid to late week system continues its disappearing act.    Although its easier to see the trends if you ignore the 06Z and 18Z runs.   

 

Now there is another trough approaching Saturday on the 12z run.  

 

At least it does not look warm. Of course I would like some rain, but at least the upcoming period is looking pleasant, temp wise. The rain will come. 

[Jesse]

The mid to late week system continues its disappearing act. Although its easier to see the trends if you ignore the 06Z and 18Z runs.

 

Now there is another trough approaching Saturday on the 12z run.

12z handles the 500mb pattern mid next week very similar to yesterday’s 18z.

[Jesse]

At least it does not look warm. Of course I would like some rain, but at least the upcoming period is looking pleasant, temp wise. The rain will come.

Sunday looks a little damp. But yeah overall I agree. A nice transition into early fall like temps this year in late August. I’m sure we will pay for this insubordinance later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday looks a little damp. But yeah overall I agree. A nice transition into early fall like temps this year in late August. I’m sure we will pay for this insubordinance later.

 

I'm not sure we will. We aren't seeing anything to ridiculous here...

[TT-SEA]

At least it does not look warm. Of course I would like some rain, but at least the upcoming period is looking pleasant, temp wise. The rain will come.

12Z GFS is much more troughy for Labor Day weekend... that is for sure. Feels sort of a like chasing carrots with rain right now.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z GFS is much more troughy for Labor Day weekend... that is for sure. Feels sort of a like chasing carrots with rain right now.

GEM has a deep trough Labor Day

[TT-SEA]

GEM has a deep trough Labor Day

But nice on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Wednesday and Thursday looked very troughy and wet a couple days ago... now none of the models show that.

[Jesse]

But nice on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Wednesday and Thursday looked very troughy and wet a couple days ago... now none of the models show that.

They could still shift back. Struggling with that cutoff energy. Ensembles have been fairly consistent in supporting a troughier look in that time frame.