August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

This morning I realized what you are doing. You know deep down, because you have a better understanding of this stuff than almost anyone on here, that the other shoe is going to drop bigtime this fall/winter.

 

It has been historically dry/warm for months. And inevitably we are going to get payback, big time. And you are troubled by this, because despite your rhetoric, you can never quite live in the moment, because none of us who follow this stuff really can.

 

Also it has been a little wetter where you live. So you are simultaneously pissed that you haven't been able to cash in on the historical drought, but you know the area of wetter weather has been so small, you will likely still be part of the payback. So subconsciously you attack all ideas of regional drought and try and convince yourself the inevitable is not coming, but you know it is...Oh yes it is...

Nailed it!

[TT-SEA]

Nailed it!

Not even close. When I have some time I will write up a BS post about what you fear.

 

Straw men!

 

And I have not mocked any regional drought talk since it became real. And for an even longer time when discussing Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, if that mythical July-to-January correlation is legit, it’s gonna be a blowtorch month for just about everyone, with a raging +AO.

 

 

Good thing its a myth.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not even close. When I have some time I will write up a BS post about what you fear.

 

Straw men!

Clowns

[Geos]

The showers are acting to rinse out the air. Smells a lot better than yesterday morning outside. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Side note... I think this going to be a very blocky winter. I have a good feeling about it.

 

Thank you Jim! 

[Phil]

And a front end -QBO/subtropical O^3 surplus under descending westerlies/weakening BDC definitely runs a higher risk for an Indian Summer across the NH middle latitudes (not necessarily everywhere), then a second half flip to blocking.

 

Hard to understate the importance of obtaining a favorable wavetrain for enhanced WAFz during the autumn months this year (for western cold). Because it would be easy for the system to lock into a very zonal/+EPO pattern for O/N/D if the wavetrain goes flat at the wrong time, and dateline forcing isn’t good for the West in J/F/M.

[Geos]

58 at SEA at noon with 4 miles visibility in smoke and drizzle. Disgusting.

 

Weird - not smelling anything but damp air here.

[TT-SEA]

Weird - not smelling anything but damp air here.

Hopefully its pushing out as models showed.

[TT-SEA]

AQI is still bad for the entire Seattle area as of noon.

[Phil]

Side note... I think this going to be a very blocky winter. I have a good feeling about it.

If we amplify the NW-Pacific surf zone in October or November, then yeah it definitely could be, given the sea of stratospheric O^3 in the subtropics right now, despite less favorable momentum deposition this year.

 

But I admit, I’m a bit worried about a late start to the blocking, which would hurt the West since dateline forcing winters are overwhelmingly front-loaded there. Some of the best stratosphere/wavetrain analogs took until January or February to flip. A recent case with a very similar wind/shear stress profile was 2012/13.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Well, if that mythical July-to-January correlation is legit, it’s gonna be a blowtorch month everywhere in the US except Florida.

 

 

I think it's a myth. In July 1968, the PNW was basically the warmest region that month. Then the following January 1969, we were one of the coldest.

 

[Phil]

But 2012/13 occurred during the run-up to solar maximum. There simply aren’t many good solar minimum analogs for the current structure QBO w/ matching ENSO.

[Phil]

I think it's a myth. In July 1968, the PNW was basically the warmest region that month. Then the following January 1969, we were one of the coldest.

 

Haha, of course it’s a myth.

 

A statistical fluke confined to recent years @ 500mb.

[Phil]

The October stuff is a myth too. Last winter is a shining example of that (just one of many).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

But 2012/13 occurred during the run-up to solar maximum. There simply aren’t many good solar minimum analogs for the current structure QBO w/ matching ENSO.

It kinda feels like there aren't a lot of strong ANALogs for this coming winter. Wild card???

[seattleweatherguy]

More rain coming today?

[ShawniganLake]

More rain coming today?

Nope

[Phil]

It kinda feels like there aren't a lot of strong ANALogs for this coming winter. Wild card???

Haha. Definitely not an easy one to nail down. I have a hunch on how it might unfold, but I’m not ready to commit just yet. Need to watch Eurasia during Sep/Oct.

 

The seasonal transition from the Monsoonal trough to Siberian High is analogous to Earth dealing the flop in a game of hold ‘em. You’re delt a certain set of cards, but a good flop can even turn a mixed suit 2 & 7 into a winner.

 

That transition period goes a long way to priming and revealing the progression of the boreal winter wavetrain/cycles of AAM resonances, and how they’ll relate w/ the thermal inertia of the tropical oceans and stratosphere/photochemical-radiative forcings.

[James Jones]

The October stuff is a myth too. Last winter is a shining example of that (just one of many).

 

My spidey senses say a bunch of Flatiron maps are coming...

[Deweydog]

I miss the coastal SSTA debates.

[Blizzard777]

The dust in my rain gauge absorbed all precipitation thus far

0.00 registered

[MossMan]

Ugly day with drizzle and heavy smoke. Pukarific!

[MossMan]

Cool, that might be a better idea. I didn’t want to bash your deck too hard, but yeah it looks pretty aged/oxidized.

No worries, it’s nearing the end of its life and starting to look shabby. most of it is nearly 35yrs old now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Partly sunny and 69 now. Warmest its been in a few days.

[TT-SEA]

Ugly day with drizzle and heavy smoke. Pukarific!

So gross.

 

Grade: F-

 

I thought it would be so much better.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So gross.

 

Grade: F-

 

I thought it would be so much better.

 

Up to 70 now. With little wind and some humidity it felt pretty warm in the bright sunshine.

[TT-SEA]

Did we move to China? AQI of 151?

 

 

This is under a trough with rain earlier??

 

F*ck this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did we move to China? AQI of 151?

 

 

This is under a trough with rain earlier??

 

F*ck this.

 

Meltdown status!

[TT-SEA]

Meltdown status!

No... but the descriptions of the day up here are very accurate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No... but the descriptions of the day up here are very accurate.

 

I'm glad I don't have to deal with this type of horror today.

[TT-SEA]

I'm glad I don't have to deal with this type of horror today.

You have been living in a self-imposed weather horror in your mind since April.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You have been living a self-imposed weather horror in your mind since April.

 

It's sucked, but starting on Thursday things turned around. 

[TT-SEA]

It's sucked, but starting on Thursday things turned around.

Today sucks for everyone up here who needs to breathe air.

[Jesse]

Today sucks for everyone up here who needs to breathe air.

You can’t spend all year rooting for a horrific fire season and then complain about the smoke. Breathe deeply. It’s the smell of your dreams coming true.

[TT-SEA]

You can’t spend all year rooting for a horrific fire season and then complain about the smoke. Breathe deeply. It’s the smell of your dreams coming true.

Yeah... that is what I did.

 

Straw man with almost every post... you are on a roll lately!

[Jesse]

Yeah... that is what I did.

 

Straw man with almost every post... you are on a roll lately!

You’re the one saying strawman to every post directed at you.

[Farmboy]

This place is hilarious today, keep it comin' guys!

[TT-SEA]

You’re the one saying strawman to every post directed at you.

Just you and Phil. For obvious reasons.

[Geos]

I noticed a little bit of haze looking off 5+ miles, but haven't smelled any smoke today. It just smells damp. 0.01" so far today.