August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS took away the wet system that the 12Z run showed for Wednesday and Thursday.   The trough looks really pathetic on the 00Z run.  

[TT-SEA]

Is that crap headed this way? I don’t have the link to that product.

 

 

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

[Phil]

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/

Thanks.

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvement for next weekend on the 00Z GFS compared to the 12Z run.   ULL limps here on Monday on the 00Z run.   I want a soaking rain but I don't want the holiday weekend to be wet and cold.    

 

I am starting to think there will be almost no rain even here over the next 10 days.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nice improvement for next weekend on the 00Z GFS compared to the 12Z run.   ULL limps here on Monday on the 00Z run.   I want a soaking rain but I don't want the holiday weekend to be wet and cold.    

 

I am starting to think there will be almost no rain even here over the next 10 days.   

 

This is sort of thinking got us into this mess in the first place.

[TT-SEA]

This is sort of thinking got us into this mess in the first place.

So true.

[Jesse]

00z was much troughier for late in the week than the 18z.

 

System on Sunday looks wetter too, and cooler on Tuesday. Score!!

[TT-SEA]

00z was much troughier for late in the week than the 18z.

 

System on Sunday looks wetter too, and cooler on Tuesday. Score!!

If you think the trend is good for next week then you are fooling yourself.

[Jesse]

If you think the trend is good for next week then you are fooling yourself.

I’m just glad to see the GFS sticking to its guns for a somewhat wet (~0.1”) system on Sunday. That would be our biggest rainfall in almost two and a half months.

 

Ridge Tuesday looks less impressive and there is a bigger crash afterward compared to the 18z run. Those are facts.

[TT-SEA]

I’m just glad to see the GFS sticking to its guns for a somewhat wet (~0.1”) system on Sunday. That would be our biggest rainfall in almost two and a half months.

 

Ridge Tuesday looks less impressive and there is a bigger crash afterward compared to the 18z run. Those are facts.

I guess ignoring the 18Z run would help with false hope.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's pretty spotty but the WRF does show at least a bit of rain over many areas this weekend. Hopefully the fires to the NW of here get a good dousing.

 

[Jesse]

I guess ignoring the 18Z run would help with false hope.

I try to look at all the models, not just cherry pick the ones that feed my perverse obsession with drought.

[Jesse]

00z ensembles look good.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

00z ensembles look good.

 

C0C5CB2F-132A-4F94-BE19-54E0B73D7575.png

 

Correlation between a wet and wild September and the goodies later on??  ANALog????

[Jesse]

Correlation between a wet and wild September and the goodies later on?? ANALog????

Generally a cool, wet and active September is a great sign for winter. Would be nice if we could get that lucky.

[Jesse]

GEM shows a quick end to the weak ridge on Tuesday as well, with a decent trough moving in by Thursday.

[TT-SEA]

I try to look at all the models, not just cherry pick the ones that feed my perverse obsession with drought.

Straw man!! And I always ignore the 18Z.

[MossMan]

Correlation between a wet and wild September and the goodies later on?? ANALog????

It would mean Jim would be back and posting about all the “goodies”

[Jesse]

Straw man!! And I always ignore the 18Z.

If the shoe fits...

[TT-SEA]

If the shoe fits...

 

That makes no sense.    

[MossMan]

00z ensembles look good.

 

C0C5CB2F-132A-4F94-BE19-54E0B73D7575.png

Summer might be over!

[TT-SEA]

Total precip per the 00Z ECMWF through Monday...

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows just shy of 90 at PDX on Tuesday.   A couple degrees cooler than the 12Z run. 

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Total precip per the 00Z ECMWF through Monday...

 

Definite improvement over the 12z. Much better than the reverse at this stage in the game.

[TT-SEA]

82 at PDX on Wednesday per the 00Z ECMWF... a couple degrees warmer than the 12Z run. 

[TT-SEA]

Definite improvement over the 12z. Much better than the reverse at this stage in the game.

 

Actually less rain on the 00Z run for the Seattle area compared to the 12Z run.  

[Jesse]

Actually less rain on the 00Z run for the Seattle area compared to the 12Z run.

A little better down here. As you have said 22,546,908,451 times this year we probably need it more.

[TT-SEA]

A little better down here. As you have said 22,546,908,451 times this year we probably need it more.

 

I don't think .07 or .10 really matters.   We all need a good 2-inch event right now.

[Jesse]

I don't think .07 or .10 really matters. We all need a good 2-inch event right now.

Anything is better than nothing.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows that any rain with the late week system is focused in King County in a weak c-zone after the trough passes.     The 00Z run is totally dry south of Chehalis... the 12Z run was wet down to Salem... the 00Z run last night was impressively wet for everyone.  

[TT-SEA]

Anything is better than nothing.

 

Seems very close to nothing for all practical purposes.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Shockingly bad air quality around Seattle tonight given the onshore flow, with better air quality to the north and south. Is this what the convergence zone does when there's smoke in the mix?

[TT-SEA]

Shockingly bad air quality around Seattle tonight given the onshore flow, with better air quality to the north and south. Is this what the convergence zone does when there's smoke in the mix?

 

Possibly.

 

Should improve by mid-morning. 

[Jesse]

Seems very close to nothing for all practical purposes.

0.10” would be our biggest precip event in two and a half months.

[TT-SEA]

Nice improvements on the 00Z ECMWF for Labor Day weekend compared to its 12Z run.

[TT-SEA]

0.10” would be our biggest precip event in two and a half months.

 

And still meaningless in the big picture.

 

And that is all the ECMWF shows for the entire run down there.   

 

Most of next week and weekend now looks sunny and warm.... even here. 

[Jesse]

And still meaningless in the big picture.

 

And that is all the ECMWF shows for the entire run down there.

 

Most of next week and weekend now looks sunny and warm.... even here.

What one Euro run shows is meaningless in the big picture too.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows a perfect Labor Day weekend.

 

Sunny all 3 days... and getting warmer each day.     

[Jesse]

I don’t even get what we’re arguing about Tim. Do you wish I was more unhappy?