August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Never said that. Is this the part when I yell “straw men!!!!”

to show off my thick skinnedness?

I asked and you politely what for your winter forecast and you said something akin to 2002-03. That was a dud!

[BLI snowman]

Snowy Labor Day???

 

Could happen at OLM still.

[Jesse]

I asked and you politely what for your winter forecast and you said something akin to 2002-03. That was a dud!

Haha!

[BLI snowman]

Jesse AND Justin say complete dud so proceed with caution.

 

1918-19 repeat.

 

Look it up.

[Deweydog]

Haha!

Probably won't need that thick skin this winter. Just a windbreaker should suffice.

[Deweydog]

1918-19 repeat.

 

Look it up.

Haha! 8-9...

[Phil]

Solar activity has picked up again in August after being very low in July. This actually bodes well for those rooting for a longer, deeper solar minimum. Mathematically, looking at past solar mins, this cycle is mirroring ones from the Dalton Minimum in its descent.

 

The last solar minimum did as well, with a protracted min from late 2008-early 2010, but this one is coming off a SC 24 peak that was 50% lower than SC 23. I suspect the early onset of -AMO conditions and the coolish Arctic summer are also related.

 

The next few winters should be quite blocky and very interesting.

Yeah, statistically speaking, long cycle troughs precede deeper minimums. Also, the structure of the dipole and the low latitude of the sunspots indicate that solar minimum is at least a year away. The stage has been pretty much set in that regard.

 

FWIW, geomagnetic storms tend to be stronger closer to the equinoxes, when the Earth’s magnetic field is more easily perturbed. The recent event was a result of a fissure in our magnetic field in the wake of a weak CME w/ a southward Bz taking advantage of near-equinox boundary conditions.

 

This particular sunspot group will rotate away from the Earth in a few days. So perhaps it’s less of an “uptick” and more of a typical fluctuation in solar activity superimposed on the long term decline?

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

[BLI snowman]

Haha! 8-9...

 

First snowless winter on record in Portland.

 

There would be many, many more 

[Deweydog]

First snowless winter on record in Portland.

 

There will be many, many more

Fixed!

[Phil]

But an uptick in the solar wind/geomagnetic storms this fall would be a terrible thing, because:

 

1) Higher solar wind/geomagnetic activity in the run-up to solar minimum is highly indicative a stronger subsequent solar cycle.

 

2) It would destroy O^3/TWs in the places we want them, and currently have them, believe it or not. November and December are the months that could go big for the West should we avoid a 2012/13 like progression with the strong early-season vortex wasting a great early season wavetrain.

[Deweydog]

We brought the drizzle back with us, boys!!!

[BLI snowman]

Fixed!

 

No doubt. I expect that to be 2019-20 and probably 2020-21.

 

I do in fact think we'll see a

[Jesse]

Light rain!

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, statistically speaking, long cycle troughs precede deeper minimums. Also, the structure of the dipole and the low latitude of the sunspots indicate that solar minimum is at least a year away. The stage has been pretty much set in that regard.

 

FWIW, geomagnetic storms tend to be stronger closer to the equinoxes, when the Earth’s magnetic field is more easily perturbed. The recent event was a result of a fissure in our magnetic field in the wake of a weak CME w/ a southward Bz taking advantage of near-equinox boundary conditions.

 

This particular sunspot group will rotate away from the Earth in a few days. So perhaps it’s less of an “uptick” and more of a typical fluctuation in solar activity superimposed on the long term decline?

 

 

Yes, almost certainly a typical fluctuation on the slow path down.

 

Almost everything I see points to something close to SC 6/7, during Dalton Min. Solar activity levels are definitely lower than we've seen in 100+ years, the real question is will they recover or are we entering a grand minima?

 

By the way, severe drought and heatwaves are also a hallmark of low solar activity, as the atmosphere tends to get more stagnant and the jetstream is weaker than normal.

 

People tend to, of course, fixate on the blocky, often cold aspects of winter, but in general, low solar activity correlates to: shorter growing seasons, more severe storms, floods, droughts, bigger snowfalls, and more severe cold waves. We saw all of that across the CONUS in 2008-11.

[Front Ranger]

Looking good for a sub-70 day at PDX.

 

And the CZ is firing up for Mossman!

[Deweydog]

No doubt. I expect that to be 2019-20 and probably 2020-21.

 

I do in fact think we'll see a

Bold and beautiful!

 

Schools will undoubtedly be closed for a couple days.

[MossMan]

Drizzle stopped!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pleasant room temperature same inside as outside under dry overcast.  Normal Willamette Valley summer paradise right here.

[WeatherArchive]

No doubt. I expect that to be 2019-20 and probably 2020-21.

 

I do in fact think we'll see a

Well if it means anything we got exactly that this winter.  Only 1 inch of wet slop that caused a random 'snow day' for schools for some odd reason.

[MossMan]

Either some moron decided to burn on our second damp day in a while or the wildfire smoke is returning...getting stinky again.

[Jesse]

Looking good for a sub-70 day at PDX.

 

 

Day’s not over. They have hit at least 68 so far. A small thin patch in the clouds could easily get them there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Either some moron decided to burn on our second damp day in a while or the wildfire smoke is returning...getting stinky again.

 

The smoke is never going away...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day’s not over. They have hit at least 68 so far. A small thin patch in the clouds could easily get them there.

 

Gonna be close!

[Deweydog]

PDX up to 62.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just went thru a pretty good thunder storn near montrose colorado

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Where does front ranger live?

[TT-SEA]

Clean air... and a normal looking turbulent North Bend day:

 

[TT-SEA]

Where does front ranger live?

 

Near Boulder... I think I remember Thornton or Broomfield?  

[TT-SEA]

Does not seem like there is another wave of organized precip left to come through... appears we just have the post-frontal c-zone now.

[Perturbed Member]

Spent a lot of time today in the coast range hiking, overcast with temps in the high 50s-low 60s and a drizzle to light rain. Felt so refreshing to feel the cool fresh air. It actually felt like I was in the PNW instead of Arizona for once. Very happy and eager for fall. 

[Front Ranger]

Where does front ranger live?

Westminster. In between Denver and Boulder.

[Front Ranger]

Day’s not over. They have hit at least 68 so far. A small thin patch in the clouds could easily get them there.

Looks unlikely with plenty of moisture streaming in and peak heating ending soon.

[The Swamp]

I don't see how any of you people can like a day like today in August.

 

It should be like this in October.  Not August.

 

Down right depressing.  Wind.  Clouds.  Drizzle.

 

Where is my prozac?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some drizzle, 62 degrees

[Perturbed Member]

I don't see how any of you people can like a day like today in August.

 

It should be like this in October.  Not August.

 

Down right depressing.  Wind.  Clouds.  Drizzle.

 

Where is my prozac?

 

 

We've had way more than our fair share of hot and bone dry days. So many places here with dead/dying vegetation from the brutal drought and we have very high fire danger and awful air quality. Can't even make a campfire in most spots here. 

 

At what point will the drought enthusiasts on this forum stop cheering for this nonsense? 

[FroYoBro]

Some drizzle, 62 degrees

 

Man, that is a ridiculous commercial. 

[James Jones]

Hour 384!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Man, that is a ridiculous commercial. 

 

One of the most ridiculous I have ever seen. I was watching Mark Nelsen on Fox 12 one night and they went to break and then that thing came on. I was like, wow...

[Front Ranger]

I don't see how any of you people can like a day like today in August.

 

It should be like this in October.  Not August.

 

Down right depressing.  Wind.  Clouds.  Drizzle.

 

Where is my prozac?

 

Obvious troll attempt, but...a few days like this at the beginning of the month and you wouldn't have been dealing with so much smoke the past few weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obvious troll attempt, but...a few days like this at the beginning of the month and you wouldn't have been dealing with so much smoke the past few weeks.

 

61 degrees and drizzling, still doing yard work, it has absolutely no effect on my outdoor activities today.