2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[OKwx2k4 4219]

I’m reading some very bad economics for farmers. Deep debt and many will be out of business unless government bails them out. It’s looking very bad.

They're being misled, used and abandoned and the last thing they need is the government right now. It's sad. It's a no win situation. So, do we trust the USDA, who can't catch an e-coli outbreak that spreads the nation under their supervision, while they have inspectors everywhere or do we trust real people who are losing? I trust real people.

If they make farmers dependent, they can control them. Just like the folks in the inner cities. It's sad. I know this isn't a political group, but it's a problem with the weather and many many other factors.

[Tom 16870]

Tom, I'll be honest. If those maps are correct and Pacific forcing doesn't shift back east, the west will be the only place that sees winter this year. That's the only agreement with the euro that I have right now, as well. Looks like crap year number 4 coming for me on paper.

 

Early cold is looking sketchy as well unless its purely AO/NAO+GOM moisture feed.

 

I'm just being as objective as I can. The Pacific is starting to look like an enemy more than a friend to the south central and east folks.

 

I'm not being negative, just straight up honest. Time will tell.

 

I am also worried about the strength of the southern ridge heading into the cold season for you guys down south.  Your going to really have to bank on the blocking this season I think.  Still plenty of time to see how things shape up in Oct/Nov.

[Andie 1826]

Well if I can get some cold and rain I may settle for just barely satisfied.

Not sounding promising.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Well if I can get some cold and rain I may settle for just barely satisfied.

Not sounding promising.

You may fare better than I will. You and the Gulf coast had more snow than me last season. I think I really hate this place sometimes.

[Tom 16870]

Courtesy of Ben Noll, here is his maps via super blend (ECMWF + UKMET) for the Winter season...for our friends down south, the signal for a potentially suppressed jet due to high lat blocking is in the cards.  Given what we have been experiencing of late, I'd put more weight into blocking this year than any other year in recent years.  That is a very wet and potentially active STJ!

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Courtesy of Ben Noll, here is his maps via super blend (ECMWF + UKMET) for the Winter season...for our friends down south, the signal for a potentially suppressed jet due to high lat blocking is in the cards. Given what we have been experiencing of late, I'd put more weight into blocking this year than any other year in recent years. That is a very wet and potentially active STJ!

 

 

 

 

 

Is that a polar phasing pattern?

I really think it is...

Almost forgot what that looked like on a map. If that verifies, I won't be worried about winter. Not at all.

[Tom 16870]

Nature is starting to align things up across the N PAC as the SST's are heading towards what the climate models have been predicting for a while now.  Over the last 7 days, an active storm track has carved out a tongue of cooler waters coming out of East Asia as seen below.

 

 

 

The predicted pattern over the next 2 weeks is to keep the storm train locked and steady which will likely continue to cool the waters south of the Aleutians.  In my opinion, this will be a big part of the ever slowly developing LRC come late Sept as a dominant northern stream evolves early in the cold season.  Aleutian Low???  I'm starting to believe strongly this Autumn will look very Nina (ish) and a lot like what last year served up.  The one big difference I see is in the E PAC where there are very warm waters just west of Cali that weren't present last year. 

 

With that in mind, I'm anticipating to see a ridge off the west coast to be a semi permanent feature of the new LRC this Autumn.  Meaning, this will likely aid in a dominant northern stream flow into the west coast that could enhance "inside runners" and allow storms to track into the central Rockies/4 corners.  Depending on how far off the west coast this ridge develops will determine if Cali/SoCal/4 corners stay in the vicinity of the storm track that will in turn effect the central CONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, we have the waters near Greenland...this is a text book signal for a -NAO this season.  Since this Spring, models have continued to try and forecast a reversal (+NAO) in the longer range but has failed each and every time.  Only brief (+ or neutral) periods have shown up over the past several months and then blocking locks in again.  I expect this to be a common theme until sometime in Nov/Dec when I am expecting some interesting things evolve with the Polar Vortex.

 

As I sit here in the middle of August, based off what I'm seeing in the data and what is now currently transpiring, I will say with confidence, Autumn is coming early and hard this year.  I listened to JB's Sat Summary yesterday and he's predicting "endless summer".  I will wholeheartedly disagree with him and firmly stand on my long standing prediction while countering the Euro models predicted warmth heading into Sept.  Nature is showing us the seasons have already turned up north, its heading down south into the U.S., early and abruptly for some folks up north.  It feels like the Autumn season will be coming in a lot earlier this year...just like last year, but could it rival last year's cold Autumn???  We shall see.

 

 

[Tom 16870]

Today's 12z Euro op 6-10 day mean 500mb forecast run literally flashed what I had envisioned in my earlier post what an exhibit of the new LRC will look like: 1) Ridge off west coast  2) Aleutian Low 3) Greenland Block  4) Northern stream Flow  5) Trough-like pattern over the majority of our Sub

 

 

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Today's 12z Euro op 6-10 day mean 500mb forecast run literally flashed what I had envisioned in my earlier post what an exhibit of the new LRC will look like: 1) Ridge off west coast 2) Aleutian Low 3) Greenland Block 4) Northern stream Flow 5) Trough-like pattern over the majority of our Sub

 

 

:)

I have nothing to add. Not one thing.

Have a weak leader through coming and a massive follower.

You hit the checklist right on the head.

[Tom 16870]

:)

I have nothing to add. Not one thing.

Have a weak leader through coming and a massive follower.

You hit the checklist right on the head.

 

This season could really end up being legendary for places in our Sub.  Hard to say where exactly until I see the LRC fully develop.  To think that Back-to-Back wild/extreme Winters are on the table would be real fun to track.  It would be quite enjoyable to see across the heartland again.  Even though my area was not on the receiving end of the historic snow stats, I'm more inclined to believe this cold season will be for one, very Long, and two, more widespread with cold/snow potential.  To be quite honest, I'm starting to get a bit excited based on what I'm starting to see and the consistency is some of the modeling I look at.

[Andie 1826]

It's 100 heading for 102.

Forecast for tomorrow is 103.

 

All this talk of Fall is making me crazy as I sweat while trying to keep my flowers alive.

If the A/C failed right now, I'd commit "hari-kari"

Everyone is totally maxed out with this heat. Enough already. Bring on Fall.

[Andie 1826]

Central Kansas has experienced 11 earthquakes in a week. Anyone feel it?

 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/kansas/article234125492.html

 

2.4 to 4.2.

Mid continent quakes are not common. But these have been surprising.

 

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Central Kansas has experienced 11 earthquakes in a week. Anyone feel it?

 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/kansas/article234125492.html

 

2.4 to 4.2.

Mid continent quakes are not common. But these have been surprising.

 

IMG_3861.PNG

You know, I thought at times that I've felt some very slight trembling way out here this week, but I never verified it. Quakes up that far are pretty uncommon indeed.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

This season could really end up being legendary for places in our Sub. Hard to say where exactly until I see the LRC fully develop. To think that Back-to-Back wild/extreme Winters are on the table would be real fun to track. It would be quite enjoyable to see across the heartland again. Even though my area was not on the receiving end of the historic snow stats, I'm more inclined to believe this cold season will be for one, very Long, and two, more widespread with cold/snow potential. To be quite honest, I'm starting to get a bit excited based on what I'm starting to see and the consistency is some of the modeling I look at.

Seeing the PAC go through transition, at this time is the key. It's been a long time in waiting, because frankly, a full warm Pacific is bad for everyone. Gotta keep that cold fetch going off Asia and the cool tongue SW of Baja. It's like doing a math equation at this point. If we can learn to do it correctly, we can beat the LRC and distance modeling by around 60-85 days.

12 days ago, it started in the Arctic, it transitions south over the largest areas of water, then boom, imprints on continental landmasses.

This also lends credence to my long held theory that sometimes the pattern transition overlaps in mid-July. Now we just watch the interior Rockies from Wyoming to BC Canada for cold and southern and southwestern Alaska for exceeding warmth.

That late month cold shot has to verify for it all to work, but given the veracity of that July cold front a month ago, the tropics can't stand up to it much longer.

You'll hear no complaints from me.

 

If it all works, the heartland may experience the coldest October in 10 years. (My prediction)

 

Hang in there, Andie. I know we have said that for 3 weeks. Sorry.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Also, anyone see a SE ridge in that map up there? Nope. Me either. I love it. If one flares up, it will(should) be a "tilted", thin, ridge instead of a solid, stable one. There is a difference. When I get opportunity to demonstrate I will.

[Andie 1826]

You know, I thought at times that I've felt some very slight trembling way out here this week, but I never verified it. Quakes up that far are pretty uncommon indeed.

Well, I posted this here so the central US forum could think about whether they felt any or not.

It's just so rare to see a swarm in Kansas.

[Andie 1826]

That late month cold shot has to verify for it all to work, but given the veracity of that July cold front a month ago, the tropics can't stand up to it much longer.

You'll hear no complaints from me.

If it all works, the heartland may experience the coldest October in 10 years. (My prediction)

Hang in there, Andie. I know we have said that for 3 weeks. Sorry.

Hanging as hard as I can at 103* this afternoon.

[Tom 16870]

Interesting tidbit of info regarding the Stratosphere at 10mb: 

 

"10HPA ( blue line ) zonal wind V climo is record negative Canadian mean of the seasonal runs for the strat vortex shows means 20M/S below ave & clusters around 10M/S"

 

The chart below is a representation of the above comment...something really special is brewing up for this cold season...nature is going to perform some wonders on a global scale.

[Tom 16870]

Some maps below suggesting an interesting look for the start of Winter...could we FINALLY witness a Fast start to Winter???

 

CanSIPS...

 

 

 

 

 

ECMWF...

 

[westMJim 1859]

Bill Steffen of WOOD TV 8 here in Grand Rapids has his first winter guess out now

 

https://www.woodtv.com/weather/bills-blog/winter-forecast/

[Andie 1826]

Looks like Texas is shut out.

I was hoping for rain, but he isn't even hopeful about that. Last year was cold here, but we saw little rain.

[Niko 7225]

 

Autumn Outlook: Sept-Nov

[OKwx2k4 4219]

 

Autumn Outlook: Sept-Nov

That's actually not a real bad call there. Blend it with Tom's post and that's called a win, my friends. For once in 10 years. A freaking win. I'm so ready for a real autumn. You folks have no idea how much it sucks to live in the Ozark foothills with all these trees and get no autumn at all. I'm 1,000,000% ready. Yesterday....

[Tom 16870]

You look for model consistency to predict a long term forecast, well, it can't get better than this.  Ben Noll uses his Super blend model (264-member ECMWF+UKMET+Météo-France+DWD+CMCC 'super-ensemble') and it illustrates a dream map for the start of Winter. Based off all the research I've been conducting and the way things are lining up in the near term, something really spectacular is once again brewing for our cold season across our Sub Forum.

 

[someweatherdude 401]

You look for model consistency to predict a long term forecast, well, it can't get better than this.  Ben Noll uses his Super blend model (264-member ECMWF+UKMET+Météo-France+DWD+CMCC 'super-ensemble') and it illustrates a dream map for the start of Winter. Based off all the research I've been conducting and the way things are lining up in the near term, something really spectacular is once again brewing for our cold season across our Sub Forum.

 

Would you mind a little commentary explaining what we see here?  The practical consequences? I think I have an idea, but just a few sentences would be much appreciated.  Thanks!

[Tom 16870]

Would you mind a little commentary explaining what we see here?  The practical consequences? I think I have an idea, but just a few sentences would be much appreciated.  Thanks!

What stands out to me is the deep trough near the Aleutians (Aleutian Low) and the NW NAMER ridge, both, respectively, behave in a way that pump a mean ridge up in the Arctic (blocking) which seeds cold into the U.S.  Also, notice the PAC jet streaming into west coast/SoCal, ultimately indicating a Split Flow pattern and an active STJ.  This was a very similar pattern last year where we had storms coming out of the SW but what may be different this year is the lack of a large scale Southeast Ridge (SER).  Hope this helps.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Huge, constant arctic HP blasting the US with STJ extending underneath the closed ridge out west. Holy fudge. The pattern coming up will illustrate it quite well over the next 10 days. I'm excited beyond words. Wow.

 

I'm gonna get buried this winter. Buried.

[Tom 16870]

October is a crucial month for many reasons, but none more so important is the new pattern for the 2019-2020 LRC season.  Some of the more reliable global models are suggesting a very active PAC and stormy/active pattern across the CONUS.  Below is a map of the UKMET 200 hpa velocity potential which in layman terms is showing rising air/convection across the central PAC into N.A.  This could very well be an indication of an active STJ.  The ECMWF/JMA/CFSv2 all have a very similar look as shown below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

On top of that, I saw this post on twitter from a met showing similar October's with nearly an identical scenario as shown above.  Are we going to see a repeat scenario as last year...cold/stormy October???

[someweatherdude 401]

What stands out to me is the deep trough near the Aleutians (Aleutian Low) and the NW NAMER ridge, both, respectively, behave in a way that pump a mean ridge up in the Arctic (blocking) which seeds cold into the U.S.  Also, notice the PAC jet streaming into west coast/SoCal, ultimately indicating a Split Flow pattern and an active STJ.  This was a very similar pattern last year where we had storms coming out of the SW but what may be different this year is the lack of a large scale Southeast Ridge (SER).  Hope this helps.

Thanks!  That helps. 

[Tom 16870]

Ben Noll is providing some valuable information and important clues that will likely have an impact in our Winter as the Southern Hemisphere is about to have a major SSW event which hasn't happened in years (2010).

 

 

 

There have only been two sudden stratospheric warming events in the Southern Hemisphere on record: Sept 2002 & 2010. That may change next week, as model guidance is forecasting temperature anomalies up to +60˚C at 10 hPa over Antarctica!

 

I am fully anticipating something similar during our cold season which will have major impacts not only on our continent, but Europe as well.  Both of our continents are going to see the wrath of Ol' Man Winter this season.

[westMJim 1859]

With fall just around the corner this is a good time to post a list of the sunniest to cloudiest cities. Note that where I live is one of the cloudiest cities and is even the cloudiest in the Great Lakes area thanks to lake Michigan and it's lake effect. So while GR can get a lot of snow in the winter we get a lot of clouds as well. Here is that list

 

 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ccd-data/pctposrank.txt

 

And if you like it sunny it shows you where to go. 

[jaster220 8342]

Good read if you want a sanity check before purchasing your ticket to board any hype train, lol

 

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-anyone-accurately-predict-the-2018-19-winter-season?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_campaign=2019-2020

[Stormhunter87 969]

Good read if you want a sanity check before purchasing your ticket to board any hype train, lol

 

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-anyone-accurately-predict-the-2018-19-winter-season?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_campaign=2019-2020

There were a couple that weren't half bad here. Craig actually did a decent forecast here.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

October is a crucial month for many reasons, but none more so important is the new pattern for the 2019-2020 LRC season. Some of the more reliable global models are suggesting a very active PAC and stormy/active pattern across the CONUS. Below is a map of the UKMET 200 hpa velocity potential which in layman terms is showing rising air/convection across the central PAC into N.A. This could very well be an indication of an active STJ. The ECMWF/JMA/CFSv2 all have a very similar look as shown below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

On top of that, I saw this post on twitter from a met showing similar October's with nearly an identical scenario as shown above. Are we going to see a repeat scenario as last year...cold/stormy October???

So, what you're saying is that my "coldest October in a decade" call has scientific consensus. Sweetness! That typically means cold December, January. Yes sir!

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Good read if you want a sanity check before purchasing your ticket to board any hype train, lol

 

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-anyone-accurately-predict-the-2018-19-winter-season?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_campaign=2019-2020

One thing that I do note is this. The change finally occured of having JFM bring an onslaught of snow to the east and NE for the first time since 2006. (Minus 2013-14) They had 13 winters of amazement after 2004-05. No more.

 

If you're looking for clues, that's a major one. Major. Other sign I note, the suppressed Atlantic hurricane season. In spite of hype, it's pretty much nothing but one over hyped hurricane. They're screaming about tropical depressions right now, but there were some eras in which they'd only be called "coastal lows". Weak sauce.

 

If hurricane season makes it past Sept 15 without a cat 2 land falling west of the Mississippi, winter is on west of the Apps. 100 percent.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

Ben Noll is providing some valuable information and important clues that will likely have an impact in our Winter as the Southern Hemisphere is about to have a major SSW event which hasn't happened in years (2010).

 

 

I am fully anticipating something similar during our cold season which will have major impacts not only on our continent, but Europe as well. Both of our continents are going to see the wrath of Ol' Man Winter this season.

Yessur.

[jaster220 8342]

There were a couple that weren't half bad here. Craig actually did a decent forecast here.

 

Ofc, the focus of that article was national and how actual results went strongly against (if not a complete opposite result of) early consensus forecasts for met winter (DJF). I followed the same signs that most did (historical averages for weak Ninos with a bit of gut feeling mixed in for good measure) and ended up mostly wrong! If you were to look only at seasonal snow totals here and in Battle Creek, my analog-based call wasn't half bad. But how we got there was anything but normal. We had not witnessed a snowy November since perhaps Y2K, yet 6 weeks of winter hiatus here from Dec 1st until Jan 18th, was propped up by an historic snowy November (#1 for BC & #3 for Marshall). I'm still feeling a bit snake-bitten by how last winter played out and agree with the writer that too many shorter-term patterns can through some major wrenches into the best laid LR/seasonal forecasts especially when there isn't an overwhelmingly strong ENSO state. Just my 2-cents fwiw..

[jaster220 8342]

One thing that I do note is this. The change finally occured of having JFM bring an onslaught of snow to the east and NE for the first time since 2006. (Minus 2013-14) They had 13 winters of amazement after 2004-05. No more.

 

If you're looking for clues, that's a major one. Major. Other sign I note, the suppressed Atlantic hurricane season. In spite of hype, it's pretty much nothing but one over hyped hurricane. They're screaming about tropical depressions right now, but there were some eras in which they'd only be called "coastal lows". Weak sauce.

 

If hurricane season makes it past Sept 15 without a cat 2 land falling west of the Mississippi, winter is on west of the Apps. 100 percent.

 

The suppressed  tropical season was definitely a feature during our trifecta of cold winters in '14-'15-'16. Don't take my other post(s) to mean this winter will also go against all signs and signals. We just have to allow for nature to have the final answer when she choses, lol

[Andie 1826]

Good read if you want a sanity check before purchasing your ticket to board any hype train, lol

 

https://opensnow.com/news/post/did-anyone-accurately-predict-the-2018-19-winter-season?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=email&utm_term=newsletter&utm_campaign=2019-2020

Looking wetter and chilly here. Sure beats those cold, dry killing winters we can get.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

The suppressed tropical season was definitely a feature during our trifecta of cold winters in '14-'15-'16. Don't take my other post(s) to mean this winter will also go against all signs and signals. We just have to allow for nature to have the final answer when she choses, lol

Truth.

I'm just going with a bit of what I observe more this year than in years past. Hoping I get a bit closer to right. '15 and '16, the cold dumped off the east coast and into the N.Atl. '17 and '18, it was held back into the west and southwest and north central US when I was dead sure it was going to drive right down the center in at least one if those years. This year has been so remarkably different than the last 4, by miles. I'm sitting here near noon at 72 degrees waiting on my 4th consecutive day of rainfall, in August. That's a 180° turn from any year I've had in the last half-decade.

[jaster220 8342]

As for "fast start autumns" in general for the Mitt, I can cite '89 (Sept mega CF's/Oct 19 snowstorm/Nov 15-16 Blizzard) as the #1 ranked in at least the last (4) decades and quite possibly even further back than that all the way to the 1950 timeframe. For comparison, winter of 89-90 came to LP of Michigan roughly 6-8 wks ahead of schedule, at least for SEMI region where I was living at the time.

 

Next best is likely 2000 with it's Oct squalls/Thanksgiving snowstorm/Dec 10-11th legit and widespread Blizzard (not a few counties). 

 

After that, it's harder to itemize a 3rd place. There have been several years (some of which I was not living in SMI proper) that had a large storm, or regional LES hit for those lucky enough to get a favorable fetch (2014 for example). But a true widespread early onset of winter beginning with an aggressive SON period, those are few and far between. 2006 made a run at it, including the 10-12-06 snow-blitz, but then failed to follow-through when the Nov 30/Dec 1st big-dog curved too far west leading into a classic Nino-esque Dec/Jan period.  

 

Honorable mentions have to go out to these years for a notable snow during Oct (which is early with our avg being only 0.2" for the month): 2013, 2009, 2006, 2000

[Niko 7225]

I hope this November we don't get any snow here because we all remember how December of last year ended up....No Snow and No Cold. Not sure if that holds true or not, but tbh, when I see snow in the forecast during November, I start getting really concern about December snowfall and cold temps. If it will snow in November, Id rather it be late in the month, instead of early to mid month.

[Niko 7225]

Looking wetter and chilly here. Sure beats those cold, dry killing winters we can get.

That can be a real pain in the neck. Imagine, heart of Winter, bare ground, temps in the teens w sunny skies. UGH! Somebody shoot me!!!!!!!!

[Andie 1826]

That can be a real pain in the neck. Imagine, heart of Winter, bare ground, temps in the teens w sunny skies. UGH! Somebody shoot me!!!!!!!!

But that sounds like Texas! we do that often in Jan. And Feb.

[jaster220 8342]

But that sounds like Texas! we do that often in Jan. And Feb.

 

We did a lot of that last winter up here too, lol. Only difference here is that there are a lot of plow piles to remind one that it's still winter..

[OKwx2k4 4219]

But that sounds like Texas! we do that often in Jan. And Feb.

Yes. Your area and points NW into the Panhandle can have some brutally depressing bare or icy, cold, 35 mph wind days that really do suck. OKC and points to the SW are the same. Red frozen dirt and dead yellow-brown grass with 6 trees on the horizon is pretty sad by anyone's standards. Lol. It's just darn depressing. The only other really depressing thing I remember seeing is when the ice storms tore up the area out by Okemah Oklahoma on I-40 back in the late 1990s. I think it was December 1999. What few trees that were in the fields in that stretch west of where the elevation increases and the woodland areas truly begin were so ugly and sad looking. That area is all farmland now (or most), but it looked like a hopeless wasteland then.

 

In short, we need freaking snow!! It cures the winter blues!!

 

I'd go for a November 2000 here. 2013 almost pulled that off but the snow died out and the moisture dammed up 30 miles to my south (due to elevation) knocking power out from Natural Dam to Ft Smith with an inch of ice for a week. I don't want almost. Lol.

 

Some of the winters of the early and late 80s were exciting for both Dallas and here. Some had that ice risk, too, though. Gotta take the good with the bad here.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

I want a 1978. 39 days of 1" or greater snow cover in this area would be enough to rest my hunger for a year or two. Lol.

[OKwx2k4 4219]

I hope this November we don't get any snow here because we all remember how December of last year ended up....No Snow and No Cold. Not sure if that holds true or not, but tbh, when I see snow in the forecast during November, I start getting really concern about December snowfall and cold temps. If it will snow in November, Id rather it be late in the month, instead of early to mid month.

Sorry for multi-posting, everyone.

 

I agree with this logic a lot. Snow in or before November is a novelty unless it's during Thanksgiving week. What I mean by that is that theres really no purpose for it and it doesn't last long. It's usually a nuisance and very ugly in a day or two.

Any time after November 20, you can hold cold longer. Mornings can drop to the low teens in November here with highs in the mid 30s during long cold stretches so it would be more worthwhile. Then you likely open December with REAL winter that lasts. My average here in November (pre-2010) used to be near one inch. I'm sure it will drop when we roll to 1990-2020 avgs here before long. Cold Thanksgivings bring families together. That's why I miss them so badly. People don't busy themselves with so many trivial things as they do in years where it's warm all winter long. In short, folks are selfish. It's sad, but true. People remember that they need one another in hard times. I wouldn't mind 10 years of hard winters just for that alone.

I miss the old days.

[FAR_Weather 5214]

Sorry for multi-posting, everyone.

 

I agree with this logic a lot. Snow in or before November is a novelty unless it's during Thanksgiving week. What I mean by that is that theres really no purpose for it and it doesn't last long. It's usually a nuisance and very ugly in a day or two.

Any time after November 20, you can hold cold longer. Mornings can drop to the low teens in November here with highs in the mid 30s during long cold stretches so it would be more worthwhile. Then you likely open December with REAL winter that lasts. My average here in November (pre-2010) used to be near one inch. I'm sure it will drop when we roll to 1990-2020 avgs here before long. Cold Thanksgivings bring families together. That's why I miss them so badly. People don't busy themselves with so many trivial things as they do in years where it's warm all winter long. In short, folks are selfish. It's sad, but true. People remember that they need one another in hard times. I wouldn't mind 10 years of hard winters just for that alone.

I miss the old days.

In Lincoln last year, our November snow actually stuck around for a while. Believe we went half the month with >1" OTG.

[jaster220 8342]

@TOL_wx

 

Me thinks you moved to Toledo with good timing to snag another good snow season. Just need to keep LaNada going for S Lakes to cash in bigly.