April 2024 Weather in the PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z GFS looks more reasonable for mid to late April with even some rain chances showing up the week after next. Although this is probably typical GFS flailing. Fully expect the Euro/EPS to stick with a merciless wall of ridging in the mid to long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS looks more reasonable for mid to late April with even some rain chances showing up the week after next. Although this is probably typical GFS flailing. Fully expect the Euro/EPS to stick with a merciless wall of ridging in the mid to long range.

Aren’t you used to it by now? 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Aren’t you used to it by now? 

Hope can soothe the soul, but it can also be a dangerous thing , Andrew.

[Deweydog]

Just incredible.

To put it in perspective, I was in my LATE FORTIES the last time PDX managed a cooler than average April. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is more ridgy next week than the GFS.   Also shows every day through next weekend being mostly sunny for the Seattle area except for Monday.   Then brings a trough inland by 10 day with rain one week from Tuesday.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

Summer still started in April last year, just later in the month. The only recent year that decidedly hasn’t been the case was 2022, but we more than payed for that coolish mid-April to mid-June, with summer stretching into mid October.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hope can soothe the soul, but it can also be a dangerous thing , Andrew.

I hate it too, but we have to accept once we get past march it’s just not going to rain again until October or November. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Summer still started in April last year, just later in the month. The only recent year that decidedly hasn’t been the case was 2022, but we more than payed for that coolish mid-April to mid-June, with summer stretching into mid October.

CFS shows our coolest august in over a decade coming up…

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hate it too, but we have to accept once we get past march it’s just not going to rain again until October or November. 

God willing…

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Summer still started in April last year, just later in the month. The only recent year that decidedly hasn’t been the case was 2022, but we more than payed for that coolish mid-April to mid-June, with summer stretching into mid October.

I would say 2020, 2019, 2018, and most definitely 2017 summer also did not start in April.

[Front Ranger]

SEA had wetter than average Aprils in 2023, 2022, 2019, 2018, and 2017. Three wetter than average Mays in that period.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I would say 2020, 2019, 2018, and most definitely 2017 summer also did not start in April.

It’s semantics, so definitely up your alley, but generally dry, warm, summer like conditions certainly started in April in 2018 and 2019. Very warm Mays both those years and near to above normal Junes. A few rainy downturns later in May or June didn’t do a whole to dampen the summer vibez  (unless you’re Dewey  )

2017 was a decent late Spring but we paid for it with drought and fire later on. Same with 2020, averagish May and June so it was of course answered with late summer hellstorms. Point is we can never win.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

SEA had wetter than average Aprils in 2023, 2022, 2019, 2018, and 2017. Three wetter than average Mays in that period.

As usual, wtf is your point? That not every year has completely record breaking heat and drought? Solid proof the climate isn’t warming

[High Desert Mat?]

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=afdpdt

Hmmm. 2% chance of a tornado over here. Sounds legit. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SEA had wetter than average Aprils in 2023, 2022, 2019, 2018, and 2017. Three wetter than average Mays in that period.

Good point... this April is definitely a little different than recent years which have often been wet.   

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As usual, wtf is your point? That not every year has completely record breaking heat and drought? Solid proof the climate isn’t warming

I'm suggesting the death of spring in the PNW may be slightly exaggerated. 

The death of traditionally temperate summers? That's a real story.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good point... this April is definitely a little different than recent years which have often been wet.   

That is factually accurate. Doesn't fit some narratives, though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm suggesting the death of spring in the PNW may be slightly exaggerated. 

The death of traditionally temperate summers? That's a real story.

Warming and drying late springs/early onset to summer are part of that story. Cherry picked rainfall stats from SEA don’t change that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That is factually accurate. Doesn't fit some narratives, though.

As if you aren’t constantly pushing a narrative here yourself

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm suggesting the death of spring in the PNW may be slightly exaggerated. 

The death of traditionally temperate summers? That's a real story.

Seems like only one person here has not accepted that the climate is warming.  Constantly expressing shock and awe over temperatures at an airport in Portland like every day is a brand new revelation that the climate is warming.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Bigger picture (tough for some I realize) is that this warm and dry April dovetails pretty well with the trend toward our  dependably warm and dry season getting earlier in recent years, and encroaching into the latter half of spring more often that not

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile... down in CA where mid-April is usually the start of the reliably dry season people are wondering why its still winter.    Reservoirs are full and its dumping rain... all despite global warming.    

[Front Ranger]

27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Warming and drying late springs/early onset to summer are part of that story. Cherry picked rainfall stats from SEA don’t change that.

Cherry-picked? Those are the last 7 years. You literally said recent years.

But you're right. No room for nuance in this discussion.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Bigger picture (tough for some I realize) is that this warm and dry April dovetails pretty well with the trend toward our  dependably warm and dry season getting earlier in recent years, and encroaching into the latter half of spring more often that not

What has happened in July and August the past decade or so though is really on a whole different level than any other months, though. It's not close.

I think that's a fair point, but you might disagree...

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Cherry-picked? Those are the last 7 years. You literally said recent years.

But you're right. No room for nuance in this discussion.

I don’t live anywhere near SEA. Just like you don’t live anywhere near OLM.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t live anywhere near SEA. Just like you don’t live anywhere near OLM.

I'll try to use a less obscure PNW lowland station next time. 

[TT-SEA]

So lets use Portland... April was wetter than normal in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023.  

And 2022 and 2023 were extremely wet with more than 200% of normal rainfall.   A drier than normal April this year probably makes sense.  

[TT-SEA]

Another interesting stat... for the 3 most recent years (2021, 2022, and 2023) Portland was slightly wetter than normal overall with 111.36 inches of rain in that period compared to normal of 110.70 inches.

And PDX is running over 3 inches wetter than normal for 2024 so far.  

Makes a drier than normal April seem less like the end of the world.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What has happened in July and August the past decade or so though is really on a whole different level than any other months, though. It's not close.

I think that's a fair point, but you might disagree...

Who said anything about July and August. This discussion was about the warming and drying of late spring around here. 

Apparently nuance means shifting what the entire discussion is about when you don’t like the point that’s being made.

Edited April 13 by Cascadia_Wx

[Front Ranger]

For most the lowland PNW, 12z Euro shows 4 of the next 10 days warmer than normal, 4 below normal, and 2 right around normal.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Who said anything about July and August. This discussion was about the warming and drying of late spring around here. 

Apparently nuance means shifting what the entire discussion is about when you don’t like the point that’s being made.

You were talking about summer/the warm season starting in April. The stats I provided were for April. 

July/August are part of the warm season, and what's happened with those months recently is a far cry from the spring months.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

For most the lowland PNW, 12z Euro shows 4 of the next 10 days warmer than normal, 4 below normal, and 2 right around normal.

Sounds like normal to me.  

I like the fact that it shows it being mostly sunny for most of the next 8 days (Monday being the exception). 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You were talking about summer/the warm season starting in April. The stats I provided were for April. 

July/August are part of the warm season, and what's happened with those months recently is a far cry from the spring months.

Ugh…I’m quickly being reminded why I swore off having these discussions with you.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS was actually sort of ridgy at day 10 and more so than its 00Z run... in contrast to the ECMWF that showed a trough moving through at that time.  

And it shows a really strong signal for drier than normal over the next 2 weeks.  

[Front Ranger]

The anomalies across western WA this month add further credence to the theory that something really has broken at OLM.

It's been drier than normal with plenty of sun and clear skies at night. In the past, this would almost always lead to OLM having cooler anomalies than SEA and most other sites.

But this April...

OLM: +.7

BLI: -1.3

Seattle WFO: +.4

SEA: -1.0

BFI: +.3

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

The anomalies across western WA this month add further credence to the theory that something really has broken at OLM.

It's been drier than normal with plenty of sun and clear skies at night. In the past, this would almost always lead to OLM having cooler anomalies than SEA and most other sites.

But this April...

OLM: +.7

BLI: -1.3

Seattle WFO: +.4

SEA: -1.0

BFI: +.3

At least we agree on OLM being fubar.

[TT-SEA]

So focusing on just April... since 2017 Portland has averaged 3.26 inches of rain in April compared to the long term average of 2.53 inches.   Significantly wetter than average.   

Also in Portland since 2017... April has averaged 52.8 degrees compared to normal of 52.8 degrees.  Exactly normal overall in recent years.   In addition... the last 2 years April was colder and much wetter than normal. 

I think its more of the usual irrational doom and gloom to say April is becoming more of a summer month in recent years.   Its been normal in terms of temps and quite a bit wetter than normal in terms of precip.   

Those are just straight statistics.   Not much room for debate there.  

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

At least we agree on OLM being fubar.

That's what the facts support. 

Just like the facts support PNW springs being fairly close to normal overall in recent years. And they support the summer season, particularly July and August, being off the rails warm and dry.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F and pouring rain.

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So focusing on just April... since 2017 Portland has averaged 3.26 inches of rain in April compared to the long term average of 2.53 inches.   Significantly wetter than average.   

Also in Portland since 2017... April has averaged 52.8 degrees compared to normal of 52.8 degrees.  Exactly normal overall in recent years.   In addition... the last 2 years April was colder and much wetter than normal. 

I think its more of the usual irrational doom and gloom to say April is becoming more of a summer month in recent years.   Its been normal in terms of temps and quite a bit wetter than normal in terms of precip.   

Those are just straight statistics.   Not much room for debate there.  

 

 

 

I think most of that is due to the persistent la Nina since 2017. We should have been running pretty significantly wetter and colder than normal, but it ended up being normal temps.