Geos Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 Only 2 days away from met. summer. Discuss. Looks like Sunday will be very warm to start off the month with storms possible. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 sun night through monday severe thunderstorm to a tornado outbreak is possible just by looking at twister data putting the midwest and the great lakes in the target zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 DMX is saying no widespread severe weather. More isolated for early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 Models starting to trend cooler and below normal by next Friday near the Lakes. Fits in with the MJO in Phase 2. On a brighter note, this weekend looks absolutely superb! Hoping the Hawks can pull it off and win this series against the Kings! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 MJO Phase 2 could mean cool, but for June has a fair to poor significance correlation for the local area. Looks like seasonable temps all next week in my forecast. T-storms chances aren't that great until Sunday night. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 CFSv2 showing a cooler situation for June...from June 5th-15th look very cool in our region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 CFSv2 showing a cooler situation for June...from June 5th-15th look very cool in our region.As I recall, that same model showed May to be significantly cooler than normal, look how that turned out. You always try to work cold weather in every post you make, even in June LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 @ FiNsTa, I think your brain is programmed to catch anything that has to do with "cold" "cool", etc buddy, go back and see my posts about May turning out to be the 1st above normal month since last November! On top of that, I have expressed my warmth opinions to close out May. Get with the program. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 Prob because BN has been the theme for a awhile now.. why would anyone deviate from their long range forecast anymore than that until sustained above normal temps waterfall down their hanging brain. about 1/3 the days this spring there were above avg high temps.. Sure would be nice if Summer follows Spring and ideally Mays suit... Few warm days and moisture action squeezed between a majority of BN days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 http://oi58.tinypic.com/zu5r0y.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 CPC starting to see the cool coming... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 yeah time to pretty soon punt the idea of any real above normal stuff becoming the norm yet in sconnie... I like the second half of July to Helter Swelter us in to the first ten days of Aug at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 30, 2014 Report Share Posted May 30, 2014 forecast for my area is saying mid 70s mid-late next week. which would be slightly below normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiNsTa Posted May 31, 2014 Report Share Posted May 31, 2014 A seasonal cool shot, big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted May 31, 2014 Report Share Posted May 31, 2014 Prob because BN has been the theme for a awhile now.. why would anyone deviate from their long range forecast anymore than that until sustained above normal temps waterfall down their hanging brain. about 1/3 the days this spring there were above avg high temps.. Sure would be nice if Summer follows Spring and ideally Mays suit... Few warm days and moisture action squeezed between a majority of BN days. Amen to that wish, it looks to be off to a solid start, some warm days the first week of June, but looks like the warm days will likely be stormy (ie. Sunday and Monday). However, the last storm chances this week, while successful on the whole in S Wisconsin, pretty much left my locale high and dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2014 CFSv2 showing a cooler situation for June...from June 5th-15th look very cool in our region. -1° - -1.5°C is nothing hardly. Now if the green shades showed up it would be significant. Skilling said tonight shoreline temps are running +5°F above what they were this time last year. Low 60s right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 31, 2014 Report Share Posted May 31, 2014 Skilling just posted this on FB...very surprised there is a warm pool of water near the southern shore. Overall, all 5 Great Lakes are colder than last year. Would be expected after the harsh winter we had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted May 31, 2014 Report Share Posted May 31, 2014 just in the nws chicago has issued an air quality alert for the city and surrondingareas from midnight tonight through midnight tomorrow night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 just in the nws chicago has issued an air quality alert for the city and surrondingareas from midnight tonight through midnight tomorrow night. Hopefully we can get some rain sometime during the day to wash the atmosphere out! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 confirmed tornado on the ground in north central iowa. wasnt expecting this today.http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dmx&wwa=tornado%20warning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 1, 2014 Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 thats quite an MCS in south dakota and nebraska.http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/uppermissvly.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2014 thats quite an MCS in south dakota and nebraska. Impressive! Looking forward to something like that tomorrow. CU towers have been firing up off to the west. A slight onshore breeze has kept the warmest air at bay. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 we are in line for severe thunderstorms and a threat of tornadoes and they could be strong with a threat of seeing a derecho setting up from the central plains to the lower great lakes for tomorrow through wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 yeah DMX is hitting it pretty hard but the worst looks to go just south of me, which sucks. but if the boundary goes a bit further north i could be more in line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 Des Moines disco is heavily worded:VERY STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND PLACEMENT OF THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT AS WELL. GFS SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. FEEL ITS PCPN AMOUNTS ARE TOO HIGH...THOUGH THE WIND FIELDS DO NOT LOOK TOO BAD. A BIT NOISY...BUT OVERALL DECENT. H8 WINDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING 75 KTS AHEAD OF THE S/WV...ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 50 KTS...THUS ITS PCPN IS ALSO LOWER. IN ANY CASE...ALL MODELS POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. PWAT VALUES ON ALL RUN ARE IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE. THESE VALUE ARE NEAR 3 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL...AND ARE OF CONCERN. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE...SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A BIG CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE SUGGESTS A MAJOR OUTBREAK WITH AT LEAST A 50% PROBABILITY. COMBINED 15 MEMBER SHOWS OVER 2200 EVENTS AT THE 48 HOUR POINT FOR ALL DAYS COMBINED WITH OVER 10% OF THOSE SIGNIFICANT. UPSHOT IS...SWODY2 LOOKS VERY GOOD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 I'm not too worried about severe wind here in Cedar Rapids. I expect most of that stuff to remain south. There should be a nice soaking rain just north of the severe. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 2, 2014 Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 i agree james1976 that the what they are saying it could be serious weather tomorrow afternoon to wednesday afternoon that a major outbreak is coming that the might upgrade the risk to a high risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 2, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 So muggy outside now since that t-storm line passed. Upper 70s near 70° dewpoint here in Racine. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 2, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2014 NAM showing a strong severe weather setup across Iowa, southern WI and northern IL Wednesday. Showing some pretty high shear values. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 3, 2014 Report Share Posted June 3, 2014 Looks like a very chilly day is on tap for Wednesday with a strong wind off the lake. Lake Michigan water temps in the middle of the lake look very chilly still holding in the middle 30's for this time of year! This setup tomorrow will most likely pile up some colder water near the shores and cool them off. Will be interesting to see how much it cools. On a warmer note, I have been paying attention to the Day 10-15 period. Euro Ensembles/CFSv2 pumping a heat dome into the region for our first possible long duration heat wave. Could be our first sustained 90's of the summer! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 3, 2014 Report Share Posted June 3, 2014 I said I would post some CFSv2 maps from time to time for the upcoming Fall/Winter season, so here are the latest maps....I have noticed the CFSv2 is trending much colder for November and December is still looking cold along with above normal precip region wide. Canada would certainly fill up with snow rather quickly if this transpires. Looks very similar to how last year began. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 3, 2014 Report Share Posted June 3, 2014 looks like severe stuff is forecasted to just miss me to the south tonight. dang! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 3, 2014 Report Share Posted June 3, 2014 it appears that sw to southren iowa is going to get the brunt of the dangerous storms and they are saying that the severe storms will bow out to a derecho that means that winds could be as high 100 mph+ so iowa could be in line for this that will bring down trees and powerlines so it will be days or weeks before people in iowa and illinois will be restored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted June 3, 2014 Report Share Posted June 3, 2014 also just looked at the current enso condictions and it is showing a el nino right now so that means that it will strenthning over the coming months so this winter will be a warm one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 3, 2014 Report Share Posted June 3, 2014 LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 3, 2014 Report Share Posted June 3, 2014 Omaha getting rocked right now!!! Tornado down in C NE ATM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2014 Looks like a very chilly day is on tap for Wednesday with a strong wind off the lake. Lake Michigan water temps in the middle of the lake look very chilly still holding in the middle 30's for this time of year! This setup tomorrow will most likely pile up some colder water near the shores and cool them off. Will be interesting to see how much it cools. On a warmer note, I have been paying attention to the Day 10-15 period. Euro Ensembles/CFSv2 pumping a heat dome into the region for our first possible long duration heat wave. Could be our first sustained 90's of the summer! That map is actually contaminated with partial cloud cover (picking up on cloud temperatures partially). This is reality. I know as of yesterday there was a few small patches of ice on the south shore of Lake Superior! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted June 4, 2014 Report Share Posted June 4, 2014 Thats crazy. Was in northern WI over the weekend. Unlimited sunshine on Friday on Saturday with temps in the mid to upper 80s. Lakes were all warm enough to dive in. And an hour away there is still ice on Superior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2014 An ice article. http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20140603/MICHIGANDER/306030048/1002/NEWS01 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted June 4, 2014 Report Share Posted June 4, 2014 Madeline Island June 1st 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.