November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

I barely see any precip, so unless more moisture is tapped into, hard to even call it an event.

Check the snow maps...there is plenty snow showing up in N Wisco...very high snow ratios with temps in the 10's...

[Geos]

Push that 200 miles further southwest and things could get real interesting, really quickly!

[Tom]

Push that 200 miles further southwest and things could get real interesting, really quickly!

Haven't we seen crazier things happen already this winter??? 

[james1976]

So, I am in a Winter Weather Advisory for late tonight thru tomorrow. DMX calling for a general 2-4" and has my neck of the woods in the bullseye for a solid 3-4"

[james1976]

I'm between that 3.4 and 3.6" Lets see how this pans out.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/dmx/wx/File.png

[Tom]

The widespread snow pack up to our north certainly did a number on the forecasted high temp for today.  Only made it up to 26F I believe for ORD, forecast was for 31F.

[Geos]

27° here today for a high. Guidance was supposed to be 30° in Chicago.

[Tom]

00z GFS took about a 25-50 mile shift south for Friday's wave...drops 3-5" from a line of MSP to Friendship, WI to MKE...

[Geos]

Sweet! ^ 

 

GGEM is trying to do the same.

[Money]

Anyone have GGEM snow maps?

[Money]

UKIE

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Geos]

Anyone have GGEM snow maps?

 

Not a lot, but it is 10:1 afterall.

 

 

On the other hand, this model shows a very sharp baroclinic zone on the 30th. Would be a shame if a system did not spin up along it.

 

[james1976]

Man, winter storm warnings flying in southern Minnesota for 7-10". My area is bumped up to 3-5". However, nothing happening yet. It keeps drying up as it moves east.

[Money]

GGEM much farther south/stronger with the clipper it looks like 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112612/I_nw_g1_EST_2014112612_058.png

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112612/I_nw_g1_EST_2014112612_059.png

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112612/I_nw_g1_EST_2014112612_060.png

[Geos]

Yeah GGEM is further south. Little more generous with snowfall in WI this time around.

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Major bust today. Dry air killed this thing. Might end up with an inch now, not the 3-5 DMX was forecasting this morning.

[GDR]

Nice snow here a little over 3 inches

[Geos]

Just happen to notice the HRRR produce LES snow showers this evening.

Maybe some moderate bursts of snow in Chicago tonight?...

 

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

11" in Faribault,MN-- from a clipper. Storm way over performed here just west of the DSM Metro with 4.5" from a forecast of maybe 2".

[tim the weatherman]

good news that tropical tidbits website is back online as of now.

[Geos]

Some really light LES is falling near the lake tonight. Nothing much of note, but it makes another day this month that snow has fallen from the sky.

[james1976]

Was this system even a clipper??? Seemed like it just stalled out. Very strange system. If you got under those isolated snow areas you got dumped on. Just under an inch here. Oh well. Puts my monthly total to about 6". Not bad for November!

[Tom]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  Hope everyone enjoys the holiday with family and friends today.  Chicago is going to experience one of the coldest Thanksgiving's in 58 years.

 

Just read a nice article from Joe D'Aleo on WxBell and his discussion regarding the SSW going on this year.  If you look at the map below, this year we have increased warming MUCH earlier than last year.  Last year, it primarily begain in January.  This is certainly a sign of things to come as we roll on into December.  The current SSW is going to deliver some serious cold within the next week to 10 days.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tom]

Saw this from JB on twitter...these Brazilian meteograms are betting more brutal as we get closer to winter for our region.

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

Saw this from JB on twitter...these Brazilian meteograms are betting more brutal as we get closer to winter for our region.

this is going to be a long winter.

[Geos]

Saw this from JB on twitter...these Brazilian meteograms are betting more brutal as we get closer to winter for our region.

 

Actually that was pretty accurate last winter too!

Who would have known we'd only have one or two rain during the whole winter season.

 

---

 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Looks more like Christmas!  

A cold Thanksgiving today - even colder than last year when it was 29°. Temperature has been backing down a little since sunrise this morning.

[Tom]

Actually that was pretty accurate last winter too!

Who would have known we'd only have one or two rain during the whole winter season.

 

---

 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Looks more like Christmas!  http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.png

A cold Thanksgiving today - even colder than last year when it was 29°. Temperature has been backing down a little since sunrise this morning.

It was a high temp of 82F over here...while you guys experienced one of the coldest Thanksgivings in over 50 years.  Pretty awesome.  Gobble gobble...

[Money]

Looks like 1-3 inches of snow possible in S/C WI tomorrow.

 

MKE update:

 

.UPDATE...FLURRIES HAVE FINALLY ENDED IN THE SOUTHEAST...
OVERWHELMED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING. 925H TEMPS
AROUND -14 ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HOWEVER TEMP FALL WILL BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI NEXT FEW HOURS. ALREADY LOWERED TEMPS MOST AREAS.

STILL EXPECT -SN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI AFTER
08Z...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EAST BY 14Z. EXPECT SOME AREAS TO
RECEIVE BRIEF BURST OF -SN DUE TO ENHANCED FORCING ASSOCD WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT AFFECTING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE BRIEFLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.
VERY COLD PAVEMENT TEMPS LIKELY TO AID IN DEVELOPING SLIPPERY
ROADWAYS. CONSIDERING NUMBER OF SHOPPERS HEADING OUT FRIDAY
MORNING DURING -SN...ISSUED SPS TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS.

[Geos]

Temperatures are plunging tonight. Currently 9° with a dewpoint of +2°.

 

Picked up 0.1" of snow today.

[Money]

0z GFS with 2-3 inches of snow for GB-MKE. 

 

Would put the Nov. total over 7-8 inches here. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

0z GFS with 2-3 inches of snow for GB-MKE. 

 

Would put the Nov. total over 7-8 inches here. 

 

Interesting, it definitely seemed like most models agreed we could see an inch.

[Money]

HRRR def. looks interesting:

 

HR 14

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112802/t2/cref_t2sfc_f14.png

 

HR 15

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112802/t2/cref_t2sfc_f15.png

[Money]

0z GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112800/gfs_asnow_us_12.png

 

0z Parallel GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112800/gfsp_asnow_us_11.png

 

0z GEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014112800/gem_asnow_us_4.png

[Geos]

MKX issued a Special Wx Statement

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-281100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
858 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...BURST OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...

A SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WISCONSIN DELLS...MONROE...
DARLINGTON AND DODGEVILLE AREAS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM CST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...REACHING THE MILWAUKEE...KENOSHA...FOND DU
LAC AND SHEBOYGAN AREAS BETWEEN 6 AM AND 8 AM CST.

BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM MILWAUKEE TO PORTAGE WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH
OF THIS LINE...INCLUDING THE MILWAUKEE...MADISON AND JANESVILLE
AREAS.

THE SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MORNING DRIVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT...THE ROADS
WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY...AIDED BY THE VERY COLD RECENT
TEMPERATURES.

IN ADDITION...THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN
ONE HALF MILE AND ONE MILE.

 

[Money]

Wouldn't surprise me to see this overperform compared to what the area offices are thinking. HRRR is looking really good at HR 15. RAP is showing the same thing. 

 

HRRR HR 15 (02z)

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014112802/t2/cref_t2sfc_f15.png

[Geos]

Well I picked up 0.4" of snow this morning. Enough to cover up the grass tips today.

[GDR]

Don't worry it will melt tomorrow!

[East Dubzz]

Yawnnnnn

[Geos]

Received a little sleet and freezing rain in the last hour. Warmed up to 31° now. 

[james1976]

See ya guys in a couple weeks! Lol....jk. I'm in here everyday even if nothing is going on. People need to relax. It's only November 28th. Meteorological Winter doesn't even start til Monday.