November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Couple hours worth to go yet. All the difficult ones are up. Now it's the ones that I wrap around the trunks of the trees, which are easy. I could do it right now, but I need to charge my batteries for my headlamp. Hopefully tomorrow isn't constant rain - looking at the NAM at least, it seems the steady rain will wait until early afternoon.

 

I don't know if they're just made better or if the LED "bulb" withstands the elements better, but I only had one line go bad out of all the ones I had out in the harsh elements last December! In fact some LED lights I've had four years now. 

I find the LED lights are worth the money, plus they use much less electricity and they look better.  All of me LED lights worked just fine this year and I didn't have to replace any lines.  Pretty awesome.

[Geos]

I find the LED lights are worth the money, plus they use much less electricity and they look better.  All of me LED lights worked just fine this year and I didn't have to replace any lines.  Pretty awesome.

 

Even the line I couldn't get working fully, I took the good bulbs and saved them. I got like 25 lines in total. 

 

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Really nice snow system on the CMC for Thanksgiving Day!

[Maxim]

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflol

 

That really isn't a bad call. Many models are showing a pretty mild start December so far.

[Tom]

00z Euro back with the arctic Hammer and some streaking snows from the Plains to the Lakes on Black Friday.  The model also backs the troughiness in the GOA farther west off the coast.  Model correction back at it again.  How many times have we seen this happen this year so far??? 

 

 

00z Euro snowfall thru Saturday...

[Geos]

Looks like a white Thanksgiving this year!

 

Far as the long range. Bastardi was saying that the pattern would relax a little in early December, but for the most part the eastern US would end up with near normal temps.

[Money]

Euro is cold in the extended with -15 to -20 850 MB temps for 4 days straight after black friday 

[Tom]

Looks like a white Thanksgiving this year!

 

Far as the long range. Bastardi was saying that the pattern would relax a little in early December, but for the most part the eastern US would end up with near normal temps.

I've been hearing that from him but I'm reluctant to buy into that at the moment.  Knowing now that Gary Lezak seems to be setting the LRC cycle around 43 days, I'd say the first part of December is going to be filled with blocking and below normal temps.  If you recall, there was a a long period in mid/late October where we saw immense blocking and an ULL spinning just to the north of the Lakes that kept it very chilly near the Lakes.  This time around in Cycle 2 the pattern will be in winter mode.  Not only that, but the EPO/WPO tank as we head into December and those are all cold signals.  I think he busts on that call.

[tim the weatherman]

about the thinksgiving storm that accuweather fourms has changed their thread from storm to clipper so could you update tom on this storm just after thanksgiving.

[centralweather44]

Well so much for that thanksgiving storm hitting our area here in NE. Not sure what happened but it dissapeared real quick. In other news we hit 58 as a high yesterday and now sitting at 54 and rain showers. Didn't take long for the snow to vanish from last weekend. I hope the trends change for our area but it isn't looking good. Looks like the plows will sit idol for yet another majority of the winter.

[tim the weatherman]

i also have started a new topic about the winter.

[james1976]

New LRC is only 43 days?? Gonna be a busy winter!

[Maxim]

Getting sick of all the complaining from Nebraskans.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Getting sick of all the complaining from Nebraskans.

 

They're right that they are not in a good place for snow, but calling it a snow dome is not accurate, especially since many of them received a few inches with last weekend's storm.  Their 2012-13 was quite snowy compared to average, so it's really only last year that there's been a dome per se if you could call it that.

[Maxim]

It's just that they're already complaining... and it's still November

[Geos]

I think with the way this year is starting out fast or even faster than last year, some people are anxious to get snow, especially after seeing all the LES pictures. I know I'm anxious to see the ground white after seeing all of that to the east and north.

Still have 4 months of snowstorm chances remaining! Only November 23rd.

[tim the weatherman]

was looking and the epo/wpo and the pna is negative and the nao is staying positve by esrl website.

[CentralNebWeather]

We know there isn't a dome, just an expression of frustration. Jealousy has alot to do with it after last winter. Thanks for all the information on this site, I have learned a great deal. Keep up the great work and we will try and limit the complaints. Thanks.

[Geos]

WPO is to remain negative, so that's a good thing. That will fight to ward off any troughs further east towards SE AK.

 

 

 

Got all my Christmas lights up, I just need to plug them together with extension cords on Friday.

[tim the weatherman]

WPO is to remain negative, so that's a good thing. That will fight to ward off any troughs further east towards SE AK.

 

ecmwf_wpo_bias.png

 

gfs_wpo_bias.png

 

Got all my Christmas lights up, I just need to plug them together with extension cords on Friday.

do you have a model take on the epo and the pna.

[Geos]

do you have a model take on the epo and the pna.

 

Here are the EURO plots, GFS is the same with the PNA mostly, but it keep the EPO negative through the duration of the next 2 weeks.

 

 

[Tom]

The system showing up on the GFS around Dec 2nd is correlating quite well with the storm hitting southern Japan on the 24th/25th.  GFS keeps taking a northerly track, however, if the East Asian Theory scores a coupe it will trend farther south.

[Tom]

00z Euro now tanks the AO to open up December and also begins a -NAO as well and maintains a -WPO.  IMO, the model is beginning to see the blocking that will eventually start showing up in the longer range.  The pattern that we will see as we open up December is going to be similar to the pattern we saw mid/late October when we saw a ton of blocking.  The LRC will again rule the day IMO.  I highly doubt we will see above normal temps.  Maybe a brief spike if a Clipper or system tracks north.  However, teleconnections wouldn't support such a northerly track.  Lets see how this plays out but ppl singing the warm tune may want to check again.

[Niko]

Im not sure whether tanking will take place or not, but after a cold shot coming tomorrow and lasting through Saturday, it warms back up into the 40s and yes, 50's in my area. December will come in in a very mild note if thats the case and wet too. My forecast calls for December 1st., cloudy with scattered showers and mild high near 52. Unreal. Things can change, but not sure why models are seeing mild and not frigid. I thought November was gonna leave with a bang!!.......Weather will be weather and will do what it wants to. Thats my theory.

[GDR]

I know I thought I seen post a while back where first part of December was fridged!

[GDR]

Maybe we're seeing a pattern change maybe a more mild and drier winter could be in the cards. Systems pushing south or north.

[Tom]

Maybe we're seeing a pattern change maybe a more mild and drier winter could be in the cards. Systems pushing south or north.

Patience...

[Tom]

Skilling is coming out with his winter forecast tonight on the 9pm WGN newscast and Gary Lezak will have his preliminary outlook out tomorrow.

 

FWIW: Notice how many more runs on the GFS had a more positive looking AO and now the latest run is near neutral.  This means to me, the model is seeing more blocking to develop in the next week or so.  Its amazing to me to see how the models correct back to where the pattern should be, especially in the arctic regions.  Even today, JB posted a video on Wx Bell about how the AO is forecasted to become negative.  He might be changing his tune as well with his expected warm up in December.

 

On another note, watch the system in the Dec 2-5th period to end farther south than what is being projected now.  -AO/-NAO/+PNA may end making this a nice cutter.

[tim the weatherman]

the esrl website is calling for a +epo/wpo towards the 2nd of dec and -pna towards the 27th 0f this month lol.

[tim the weatherman]

Skilling is coming out with his winter forecast tonight on the 9pm WGN newscast and Gary Lezak will have his preliminary outlook out tomorrow.

 

FWIW: Notice how many more runs on the GFS had a more positive looking AO and now the latest run is near neutral.  This means to me, the model is seeing more blocking to develop in the next week or so.  Its amazing to me to see how the models correct back to where the pattern should be, especially in the arctic regions.  Even today, JB posted a video on Wx Bell about how the AO is forecasted to become negative.  He might be changing his tune as well with his expected warm up in December.

 

On another note, watch the system in the Dec 2-5th period to end farther south than what is being projected now.  -AO/-NAO/+PNA may end making this a nice cutter.

accuweather fourms has a new topic about this and one of their members is saying that this storm will be negative tilted storm and the way he also has hinted that a severe weather outbreak could happen over the midwest and the lower greatlakes but i have my doubts about this.

[james1976]

I have been noticing this early Dec storm showing up on last couple GFS runs.

[tim the weatherman]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/WW_GZ_UU_VV_240_0700.gifthis is the storm that is going to hit us by next week another thing we needs to watch if this storm develops imto a moster with cold air to come down then we could be looking at the "b" word.

[Iowawx]

Euro has temps in the 60's for some of us on December 3rd. Not sure if I'm buying what others are saying about a cold and snowy winter. 

[james1976]

Euro has temps in the 60's for some of us on December 3rd. Not sure if I'm buying what others are saying about a cold and snowy winter. 

Why? Because one run of one model shows warmth?

[tim the weatherman]

Why? Because one run of one model shows warmth?

got a point there james1976 that the what tom and geos has said on this thread that the model saying 60s don't means that we will be warm with the ao going negative.

[East Dubzz]

Euro has temps in the 60's for some of us on December 3rd. Not sure if I'm buying what others are saying about a cold and snowy winter.

With a white Thanksgiving looking like it's gonna happen, weird time to question them..

[Money]

Even if it does warmup it will only be for a couple days

[Geos]

This month will go down as one of the coldest that I can remember. It seems that as far as medium range warm-ups go, it's like chasing a ghost in the models. We never catch the warmest temperatures shown during the 6-10 days range and when most of us get "mild" it's usually only up to normal temperatures to less than 10° above normal for a day or two and then it's back below normal for 5-10 days in a row.

[Tom]

About a 5 days ago I posted some GFS 30mb hieght maps of the models predicted stratospheric pattern at the 30mb level for Dec 1st.  The model was latching onto the idea of the Polar Vortex splitting into 2 pieces and one of the pieces had been placed into NAMER.  Now, it is becoming evident that this is going to happen and the model now places a piece of the PV into Canda and corrects the placement almost due north of Hudson Bay in northern Canada instead of over Greenland (ish).

 

Now, look at the difference in temp forecasts from 5 days (which would be 10 days prior to this actual date) and you can see the current forecast 5 days out from Dec 1st, the cold is pushing even farther south.  Having said that, I'm wondering how much more the models will push the cold even farther over the next 5 days till we approach Dec 1st.  The coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere will be centered over NAMER within the next 5 days.  If blocking signals continue to show up (as you can see a clear hook over the top of the GFS ensemble 500mb map), and if this PV does its dirty work, one can only imagine it will get colder.

 

These are only a few things I have noticed in the modeling over the past week or so.  On top of that, you add the current SSW event taking place and the models are behaving quite dramatically.

 

 

 

[Maxim]

I'm thinking that the first several days of December will be mild. Then the bottom will drop out around the 7th with the decline of the EPO.

[Money]

0z GFS showing another 4-8 inch event for central WI around the 28th-29th. NAM has the same type of system developing at HR 84