November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

GGEM Total Snowfall

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111900/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[Tom]

00z Euro coming in real interesting for the Thanksgiving storm that comes off the Pacific into the Rockies out ahead of a very tight thermal boundary.  This has the ingredients to become something big down the road and potentially lay down quite a bit of snow from the Plains to the Lakes and whiten the scene on Thanksgiving Day.

 

Euro tries developing a major cutter in the extended headed towards the lower lakes.

 

 

[Tom]

Looks like November wants to finish off with a bang.  Still lots of time to figure this one out but I like the trends over the last 36 hours for this Thanksgiving storm.  Cold air will be in place and the gulf wide open.  Following this storm another major arctic shot heads down the eastern Rockies out of Canada to close out the month.  

[Grizzcoat]

It like that episode from Little House--

 

[james1976]

So, Euro is showing 3 storms? The one late this weekend, one Thanksgiving, and one just after Thanksgiving?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

That's it, I'm moving to Buffalo.

 

Don't blame you, funny thing is they don't average much more than you or I (I think in the 40s or 50 inch range) but lately with the chilly seasons, LE has been killer.

[GDR]

Looking at the first week of December is anyone picking up on something?

[tim the weatherman]

accuweather fourms are showing a massive thanksgiving storm and the low is over southren illinois als models has advertising this for a few weeks.

[GDR]

[Tom]

Set another record here at ORD...

[East Dubzz]

I guess we can consider 40s and super windy "mild" now aye? It won't feel that nice.

[Money]

GFS Parallel has that storm yet:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111912/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_30.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111912/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_31.png

[Tom]

12z GFS Par...still very consistent with this system...

[Tony]

Tom has been alluding to this for awhile now so though I would post:

 

A 2-week stratospheric warming event o/Eurasia is going to do some serious nudging/forcing on the strat Polar Vortex

[Tom]

Surprisingly, the 12z GGEM starting to look a lot like the 00z Euro from last night...something big is brewing...

[GDR]

I like the potential with this storm. Everyone from Nebraska through iowa and into Illinois could be in for a holiday treat!

[Tom]

Coldest average morning low of 19.4F in the lower 48 is the coldest since Nov 1976...the Historic pattern continues and the last week of this month is going to finish off with a bang and more brutal cold.  GGEM/EURO are both seeing the pattern...GFS will play catch up.

[tim the weatherman]

Surprisingly, the 12z GGEM starting to look a lot like the 00z Euro from last night...something big is brewing...

manage if this has more snow and with winds of 40 mph this could be the b word.

[gosaints]

Guessing warmth will be the worry this time around as well

[winterfreak]

Looks like this, yet another, misses me to the north as well. At least in fantasy land.

[Tony]

At least the storm is showing up on the models which is a plus. Many details to be ironed out in the next 10 days.

[Tom]

12z Euro run for the Thanksgiving storm potential doesn't make sense to me when you just had a powerful storm system create trough over the central CONUS and an arctic HP pushing south out of Canada. Fluky run.

[gosaints]

Not doubting you Tom, but when was the last time chicago had a meaningful november snowstorm?

[Tom]

Not doubting you Tom, but when was the last time chicago had a meaningful november snowstorm?

In 1977 6.3", 1975 10.8", 1951 14.3"...it has happened and the pattern we are in certainly can bring another substantial system to deliver snow on the table this month.  We'll see.

[gosaints]

In 1977 6.3", 1975 10.8", 1951 14.3"...it has happened and the pattern we are in certainly can bring another substantial system to deliver snow on the table this month.  We'll see.

absolutely agree it could happen just figured it was rare as they are relatively rare around here as well

[james1976]

Euro is warm as well for Thanksgiving storm? I dont get it. Is GFS even showing this thing? I havent looked at it in a few days.

[gosaints]

Euro is warm as well for Thanksgiving storm? I dont get it. Is GFS even showing this thing? I havent looked at it in a few days.

Euro is relatively warm and very wet. Positvely tilted however so plenty of room to get stronger, though that wouldnt help with the warmth

[Tony]

it looks like the storm next weekend could be a dud with the snow too warm.

Way too early to be thinking like that.

[tim the weatherman]

nevermind the what i just said that i deleted the old post because i found out that cold air is tugging from canada from tropicaltidbits.

[GDR]

It is November so that doesn't surprise me! Hopefully it's not a sign of a pattern change.

[Geos]

Haven't had much time to look at models today, but it sure does look like a good storm on Black Friday by the looks of it!

Going to finish my outside Christmas lights this weekend. 

[Tom]

A majority of the recent runs of the GFS continue to show the Polar Vortex dislodged even farther off the Pole.  

 

 

From this:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014111900/NH_HGT_30mb_003.gif

 

To this by Dec 1st:

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014111900/NH_HGT_30mb_300.gif

Watch for the model mayhem to continue in the longer range.  The pattern that keeps on giving may start off December in ferocious way. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, the images did not show up on your last post.  I am interested to look at them.

[Tom]

Tom, the images did not show up on your last post.  I am interested to look at them.

Here you go...I tried copying and pasting the image off of Instant WxMaps but I guess it's like Wx Bell and the images dont post.

[tim the weatherman]

Here you go...I tried copying and pasting the image off of Instant WxMaps but I guess it's like Wx Bell and the images dont post.

i also has lookhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.gifed at thehttp://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2014/ims2014323.gif ssw event that the're tons of stratuspheric warming taking place up in the artic and it could be blocking taking place over alaska as well.

[Tom]

The amount of warm waters hugging the Alaskan coastline and NW NAMER has been expanding in recent days.  Watch for the GFS/EURO model bias in the Day 10-15 range try to bring systems closer to the coast which then creates havoc trying to develop a trough in the Central/Eastern CONUS.  What does make sense is for systems to track farther off the west coast or a split flow pattern.

[Tom]

The CFSv2 has the right idea with the AO...it briefly goes positive (reloading period), then tumbles and stays negative through mid/late Dec and what appears to be for quite some time.

 

The NAO also seems to stay relatively negative.

[tim the weatherman]

The CFSv2 has the right idea with the AO...it briefly goes positive (reloading period), then tumbles and stays negative through mid/late Dec and what appears to be for quite some time.

 

The NAO also seems to stay relatively negative.

i was wondering on what the epo and wpo look like too.

[tim the weatherman]

it looks like the epo by the 25 of this month will be negative and the wpo is mixftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.pnged with positve and negative.

[GDR]

I hear crickets in here! Any updates on thanksgiving storm?