November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Clipper according to the 4km NAM.

 

 

 

 

 

Looks good, I'll take it.

 

[Money]

HR 114:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Big difference so far is the cold air is much farther south in Canada than 18z. 

[Money]

You can see the drastic differences here in the parallel GFS

 

18z HR 132

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111718/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_23.png

 

0z HR 126:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_22.png

[Tom]

Getting closer....and the southern SLP is farther east into Arkansas...

[Money]

Check out the 540 line:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png

 

18z:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111718/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

Also check out the HP right above the storm in ND compare it to 18z. Very good trends. 

[james1976]

OK....I havent been on much today. How many systems are we tracking???? LOL. Seems like there is a lot going on. I'm ready to dig in.

BTW.....Waterloo set a record low max today at 15. Prolly a record low tonight and another record low max tomorrow. Unbelievable. Its so January-like out there.

[Money]

Another low developing down in OK with the cold air approaching fast

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[Money]

Well, that sucked

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

 

 

to

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111800/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

[Money]

and I have no idea what the OP GFS is doing...

 

988 L in MN and 988 L in MI with a 1004 L down in OK/KS

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_144_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[clintbeed1993]

How about we throw that one out? lol

[Money]

GGEM at HR 144 has a 996 L in Ohio and a 997 L in Minny

 

[james1976]

I'm lost. Are we trying to see if these systems phase or whats going on? I'm not seeing where the excitement is.

[james1976]

Some ensembles looked interesting, however.

[Money]

I'm lost. Are we trying to see if these systems phase or whats going on? I'm not seeing where the excitement is.

 

idk yet. Euro was showing a 973 L over GB at HR 168 on the 12z run. There is a lot of parts though and I think it's screwing with the models right now. 

[Money]

I honestly don't think I ever seen two strong low pressure systems right along side each other like the OP GFS is showing (988 over Chicago) and 988 in Minny. I might be wrong on that though. 

[Money]

Ukie looks like the 12z Euro. 979 in S. WI. Looks REALLY cold as well

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Tom]

GFS smoking the wacky tobacky...that model doesn't have the fire power like the Euro.  Euro seems to do really well with dynamic systems as such.

[Money]

Tom, how does the Ukie look? lol

 

I wonder if the progressive bias the GFS has is leading to it's weird solution. 

[Tom]

Tom, how does the Ukie look? lol

 

I wonder if the progressive bias the GFS has is leading to it's weird solution. 

Bingo, thats exactly what it is....Wow, Ukie showing a pretty picture...a bit too far west and north though for my area.

[Money]

Bingo, thats exactly what it is....Wow, Ukie showing a pretty picture...a bit too far west and north though for my area.

 

Looks colder than the euro too. If we can get this thing to occlude and bring in wrap around snows like the 12z euro showed, I think someone might have a nice little storm. 

[Money]

Although, it's hard to see where the ukie started from.

 

Here is HR 120:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

No LP at all to the south. 

[james1976]

Ukie looks like the 12z Euro. 979 in S. WI. Looks REALLY cold as well

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

That would destroy me.....if the temps are cold enough.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

idk yet. Euro was showing a 973 L over GB at HR 168 on the 12z run. There is a lot of parts though and I think it's screwing with the models right now. 

 

Yeah, might as well throw darts on a Midwest map right now lol.

[Geos]

Doesn't make much sense seeing two strong low pressures right in the same neighborhood. GFS is wacky tonight. lol

[Money]

One GGEM ensemble gets the L down to 964 in N. WI....

 

Most of the others look like OP or look really wacky (one had 4 LP systems all right next to each other) 

 

[Money]

Euro is huge again. 980 L over southern LM at HR 144

[Tom]

Baby steps...984MB SLP right over Chicago @ 144 HR>

[Tom]

Much farther SE than last nights 00z run and todays 12z run...

[Tom]

Still too warm and doesn't tap into the colder air....

[Money]

Guessing there is a couple bigger GEFS members. Here is the mean: 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014111800/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_25.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014111800/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_26.png

 

24 HR precip:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014111800/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_28.png

[Money]

Still too warm and doesn't tap into the colder air....

 

I think once it occludes there will be some nice wrap around snows for a lot of people. Especially if it's as strong as the euro/ukie 

[Tom]

If it can slow down some more, then it will have time to phase with northern stream.  I noticed that has been slowly down the last couple runs.

 

Check out the run from 2 nights ago...slower solution, farther south and colder....

[Money]

Tom, if you could post the maps once they are ava that would be awesome. Thanks. 

[Tom]

A monster in the making...only if it can phases earlier in the southern Plains.  Wrap around snows start in the Dakotas down into MO!

[Tom]

00z Euro snowfall...

[Money]

I like the wrap around snows from ND/SD/IA/IL. Don't see that too often.

[Tom]

I went ahead and started a thread for this storm system...

 

I like the wrap around snows from ND/SD/IA/IL. Don't see that too often.

Last time I saw a system this close was Christmas Eve 2010 I believe that buried the Plains.

[Tom]

OMG, 00z Euro showing a Barbaric 1052mb HP heading down the leeward side of the Rockies on Thanksgiving Day with some snows breaking out in KS.

 

 

[Tom]

Watch out for another lead system that tugs down this next brutal shot of cold.  00z Euro showing signs of another repeat system we saw that hit the Northwoods last week, this time it could be farther south.

[Money]

1052 H moving in again at HR 240 with -20 to -25 850 MB temps widespread.

 

Insane.