November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Snowshoe]

Image from the Western UP Visitors Bureau. Unreal!!!

 

"Honey, where'd did you park the car?"

 

[NEJeremy]

Areas near Buffalo are supposed to get 5-6 FEET of snow from the lake effect event. Here's text from the warning:

ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE  MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THE BAND. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS  TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS.

would love to experience an event like that someday...

 

special weather statement issued:

 

...INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA...

* AT 1030 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 4
INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE...AND VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. THE
SHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
BUFFALO TO DEPEW AND EASTWARD TOWARDS DARIEN AND ALEXANDER. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS HUGGING THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE
THEN EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...THE
BOSTON HILLS...AND WYOMING COUNTY.

TRAVEL WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS BAND FROM SOUTH
BUFFALO INTO THE NEARBY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS IS IMPOSSIBLE.
LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORT ALL ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE AND CLOGGED WITH
SNOW AND STUCK VEHICLES. DO NOT VENTURE OUT WITHIN THIS AREA. IF YOU
LIVE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE BAND OF SNOW DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE INTO
THE AFFECTED AREAS...YOU WILL BECOME TRAPPED.
 

[Geos]

So much weather news going on right now! Great picture above. Thanks for sharing Snowshoe.

 

This is a picture of the LES in Buffalo that arrived late yesterday. It's hard to imagine having 6' of snow in one storm. 

 

 

Many more pictures on this thread of AMWX.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-11

[Tom]

So much weather news going on right now! Great picture above. Thanks for sharing Snowshoe.

 

This is a picture of the LES in Buffalo that arrived late yesterday. It's hard to imagine having 6' of snow in one storm. 

 

 

Many more pictures on this thread of AMWX.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-11

Lancaster, NY already with 48"!  Insane amounts of snow in less then 24 hours.  I can only imagine what the scenes out there look like.  I'd love to be there right now to experience what they do with LES.

[East Dubzz]

So much weather news going on right now! Great picture above. Thanks for sharing Snowshoe.

 

This is a picture of the LES in Buffalo that arrived late yesterday. It's hard to imagine having 6' of snow in one storm.

 

 

Many more pictures on this thread of AMWX.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44743-upstate-nynorth-country-adjacent-on-qc-vt-end-of-fallinto-winter/page-11

Like I don't even understand what's going on in that picture...

[Geos]

Like I don't even understand what's going on in that picture...

 

That the edge of the LES band that is pounding away at the southern Buffalo metro right now. Looks like a fog bank or a dust storm!

[james1976]

Looks like a tsunami

[Tom]

As I mentioned last night, 12z Euro is starting to show the potential for another Plains to Lakes storm system similar to the one that hit in the beginning of this month.

[Tom]

We are heading towards a stormy pattern during Thanksgiving week and looks like a colder one as well.

[centralweather44]

 

As I mentioned last night, 12z Euro is starting to show the potential for another Plains to Lakes storm system similar to the one that hit in the beginning of this month.

When is this forecasted Tom? I know it's a ways out and could change but just curious.

[Money]

Thanksgiving ish

[Tom]

The way we saw the cold hit in early/mid November and now how the Euro is showing the last week to finish, it is looking very similar to what the JAMSTEC model was predicting back on its Sept/Oct runs.

The heart of the cold shots sliding down the east side of the Rockies with storm systems riding along the boundary from the Plains to the Lakes.  With the Pacific train of storms merging with the cold air, this has a snow lovers dream written all over it.

 

Edit: JAMSTEC's updated November run will be later this week.

[tim the weatherman]

The way we saw the cold hit in early/mid November and now how the Euro is showing the last week to finish, it is looking very similar to what the JAMSTEC model was predicting back on its Sept/Oct runs.

The heart of the cold shots sliding down the east side of the Rockies with storm systems riding along the boundary from the Plains to the Lakes.  With the Pacific train of storms merging with the cold air, this has a snow lovers dream written all over it.

 

Edit: JAMSTEC's updated November run will be later this week.

you're the best tom and i am learning a lot by this fourm than some of our mets and the way the jamestac is showing that these storm systems will ride this boundry so that means we are looking at more of these storm systems for months to come.

[GDR]

Let's ride the storm train and break all time records along the way! Could it be like the winter of 76? I bet worse!

[Tom]

Let's ride the storm train and break all time records along the way! Could it be like the winter of 76? I bet worse!

A very similar SST pattern has been setting up compared to the infamous '76/'77 & '77/'78 U.S. Winters.  Notice the cold patch of water stretching from East Asia towards the cold pool north of Hawaii.  BTW, I'll post the Oct 24th SST to the current SST and you can see the waters warming near the NW NAMER coastline and pushing the cold pool a little farther west where we want it to be.  This is most likely happening due to the seasonal feedback of the jet stream and if you get that cold pool centered where it is now, that pumps the ridge and ushers down the cold.  You also create the split flow allowing for storm systems coming off the Pacific to hit the west coastline (which is an El-Nino trait as well).

[Tom]

Tomorrow mornings commute could be a dicy one in N IL/N IN...then S MI gets in on a couple inches of snow.

[Tony]

I just can't get excited about this inch or so after looking at the Buffalo LES....

[Geos]

Tomorrow mornings commute could be a dicy one in N IL/N IN...then S MI gets in on a couple inches of snow.

 

Nice to add more snow on the books for November. (^Agree with you Tony!)

 

Can you imagine if a LES snow situation like Western NY is getting was possible in NE IL!? 

From what I've been reading the band is supposed to go right back into the heart of Buffalo later on. The pictures I've been seeing look like they're from another world!

[Tony]

^Geos, I can't even imagine if that happened here in Chicago. I have been in some heavy LES before but hours and hours on end is just unbelievable. Imagine the snow drifts they will have to deal with and where will they put all that snow that are on the streets to begin with!!

[Geos]

^Geos, I can't even imagine if that happened here in Chicago. I have been in some heavy LES before but hours and hours on end is just unbelievable. Imagine the snow drifts they will have to deal with and where will they put all that snow that are on the streets to begin with!!

 

There's no doubt that the City of Chicago would have to dump snow into the lake and Chicago River to get rid of it! I think they did that after the Ground Hog's Day Blizzard if I'm not mistaken.

 

One thing that wouldn't be good is, that most houses are not built to withstand such a snow load, unlike that area of NY.

 

Another view of the snow band from the air. WBEN Buffalo

 

 

 

Failed to reach 20° today. Lol, that's one thing Buffalo will never beat us at - the cold!

[Trinomial]

Does it look like we will be getting another arctic blast around Thanksgiving? Thanks!

[james1976]

There's no doubt that the City of Chicago would have to dump snow into the lake and Chicago River to get rid of it! I think they did that after the Ground Hog's Day Blizzard if I'm not mistaken.

 

One thing that wouldn't be good is, that most houses are not built to withstand such a snow load, unlike that area of NY.

 

Another view of the snow band from the air. WBEN Buffalo

 

 

 

Failed to reach 20° today. Lol, that's one thing Buffalo will never beat us at - the cold!

These pics dont even look like snow! crazy stuff!

[bud2380]

As I mentioned last night, 12z Euro is starting to show the potential for another Plains to Lakes storm system similar to the one that hit in the beginning of this month.

The parallel gfs is showing the same storm on the 18z run.

[Geos]

Already getting some flurry action here. 8th day in a row with a trace or accumulating snow.

[Geos]

SWS for tomorrow morning's snowfall.

Any other time of winter it wouldn't be needed, but as we all know some people forget how to drive in snow!

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
909 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-020-022-023-INZ001-002-010-011-190900-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-
KENDALL-WILL-KANKAKEE-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...
WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...
OSWEGO...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER
909 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

...PERIOD OF SNOW TO IMPACT WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...LIKELY IMPACTING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. OCCASIONAL BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITY FALLING TO UNDER ONE MILE AT TIMES WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SNOW. TIMING OF THE SNOW WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 9 AM CST
TIME FRAME...WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A HARVARD TO ROMEOVILLE
TO GIFFORD INDIANA LINE LIKELY OBSERVING THE OCCASIONALLY MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL...WHILE THE SNOW POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY TAPERS
FURTHER SOUTH. ALTHOUGH ONLY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE...THE RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRIEFLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA
ROADWAYS. ALL MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS SLICK CONDITIONS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

 

[Tom]

Already getting some flurry action here. 8th day in a row with a trace or accumulating snow.

So did I earlier today, tomorrow will be Day 9 with the light snow coming in the morning.  Pretty awesome for November, certainly one I will remember for a long time.

[Tom]

I wonder what the average snow cover for the U.S. for this time of year is.

Just found out the 12 year average is 14.2% for today's date...

[Geos]

Just dug up the latest snowfall totals from W NY. Totally epic!

 

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...
   1 SE LANCASTER        60.0   600 PM 11/18  SOCIAL MEDIA
   GARDENVILLE           60.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST SENECA           57.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 S CHEEKTOWAGA       51.0   330 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ELMA                  51.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   2 SW ALDEN            48.0  1252 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ORCHARD PARK          48.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 E LANCASTER         47.0   519 PM 11/18  SOCIAL MEDIA
   3 WSW ELMA            46.0  1215 PM 11/18  COCORAHS
   DEPEW                 42.0  1200 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LANCASTER             42.0   900 AM 11/18  NWS EMPLOYEE
   1 N HAMBURG           37.0   330 PM 11/18  NWS EMPLOYEE
   EAST AURORA           36.0   707 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ALDEN                 34.0   106 PM 11/18  NWS EMPLOYEE
   WEST FALLS            29.0   318 PM 11/18  SOCIAL MEDIA
   3 SW BLASDELL         27.0   335 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SLOAN                 16.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   DERBY                 14.0   100 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CLARENCE               6.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   KENMORE                3.0   800 PM 11/18  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 N CHEEKTOWAGA        2.0   125 PM 11/18  PUBLIC

[NEJeremy]

I like how 3 N of Cheektowaga had only 2" but 2 S of Cheektowaga has had 51". That's only 5 miles difference but 49" of snow difference

[Tom]

00z GFS Par with a Turkey Day snow potential along an arctic boundary....

[Geos]

I like how 3 N of Cheektowaga had only 2" but 2 S of Cheektowaga has had 51". That's only 5 miles difference but 49" of snow difference

 

That's the kind of gradient you'd see going up a mountain! Some of those pictures hardly look real that I've seen today.

 

Another epic one. Taken tonight.

 

 

Almost look like there is lightning going on in the clouds, but I think it is the city lights from underneath the clouds.

 

Anyways, starting to see the radar returns getting closer to the northwest now.

[Tom]

Something to watch for around Thanksgiving...Euro has been hinting at it...

[Tom]

The 00z GGEM is seeing it also...

[East Dubzz]

That's the kind of gradient you'd see going up a mountain! Some of those pictures hardly look real that I've seen today.

 

Another epic one. Taken tonight.

 

 

Almost look like there is lightning going on in the clouds, but I think it is the city lights from underneath the clouds.

 

Anyways, starting to see the radar returns getting closer to the northwest now.

That picture is epic. Wow

[Geos]

The 00z GGEM is seeing it also...

 

Would love to see a Thanksgiving night/Black Friday snowstorm! 

[Tom]

Would love to see a Thanksgiving night/Black Friday snowstorm! 

It would be festive to see it snowing outside while sipping on a cocktail next to a fireplace with family and friends!

[Money]

GGEM showing the same type of thing just farther south:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111900/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_32.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111900/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_34.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111900/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_35.png

[james1976]

That's it, I'm moving to Buffalo.