November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tony]

It's 17-21 and it is the energy from the Bearing Sea, but what doesn't make sense to me is that storm lasted a few days in the Bearing Sea and the models are trying to build the ridge back in which doesn't make sense.  Also, the AO/NAO are supposed to head negative as well which shouldn't suggest a ridge.

Tom, the storm hit around the 8th so even using the 17 day rule it would still be around Thanksgiving so I have to say the storm this weekend has no correlation to that storm but maybe I am way off base here.

[Tony]

This is an excerpt from a blog written back on November 2nd. Good read and has some merit to it but click the link to read the complete blog.

http://www.scmweather.com/?p=5259

 

A very strong storm and deep trough will be building into the Bering Sea by Saturday November 8th. This would correlate to a potential storm system and strong cold snap behind it around Thanksgiving. I fear we could see a major winter storm in the Midwest and Great Lakes around one of the busiest travel times of the year, with a strong cold snap behind it. The models do keep this trough around thru the 12th, which is the end of the model runs. This means we could see a cold end to November and beginning of December.

Because the pattern is going to be so progressive, I am working on creating a graphical way to present this forecast. Stay tuned over the next few weeks, I am going to be keeping a very close eye on the end of the period right around Thanksgiving.

[Tom]

This is an excerpt from a blog written back on November 2nd. Good read and has some merit to it but click the link to read the complete blog.

http://www.scmweather.com/?p=5259

 

A very strong storm and deep trough will be building into the Bering Sea by Saturday November 8th. This would correlate to a potential storm system and strong cold snap behind it around Thanksgiving. I fear we could see a major winter storm in the Midwest and Great Lakes around one of the busiest travel times of the year, with a strong cold snap behind it. The models do keep this trough around thru the 12th, which is the end of the model runs. This means we could see a cold end to November and beginning of December.

Because the pattern is going to be so progressive, I am working on creating a graphical way to present this forecast. Stay tuned over the next few weeks, I am going to be keeping a very close eye on the end of the period right around Thanksgiving.

That is why I'm not buying into the models right now and the fact that the Euro/GFS try to bring in the ridge to quick doesn't make any sense to me. The models that seem to have a better idea are the GGEM and the CFSv2 precip maps.  I guess over the weekend they will have a better clue.

[GDR]

Looks like the east coast may get a storm around thanksgiving

[Tony]

Looks like the east coast may get a storm around thanksgiving

I don't see them getting any snow around this time. Can you show map?

[Tony]

I'm disgusted with the model flopping of late. I know it happens every year but it seems with all the technology around that there would be better modeling and it just never happens.  

 

Maybe I'm just having a bad day at work...sorry for the rant!

[NEJeremy]

Yeah it's 17-21 days, and 17 days from the 8th of course is the 25th which is Tuesday, so I belive it's the same energy, just moving through the country a little faster than normal.

[winterfreak]

Medium range looks rather uneventful and mild. No real bug torch but milder for a while after Thanksgiving. A lot of cold air bottled up in Canada as a result.

[GDR]

Looks like a potential for a warmup after thanksgiving and then a western trough but will see

[Tom]

I've noticed the 18z GFS Par has come to some agreement with the 12z GGEM and creating a very tight thermal boundary across the central CONUS.  Practically dividing the nation in half from north to south.  This is a much different run from its previous 2 days.  Let's see what the 00z suite of models show for mid/late next week.  It even tries to spin up a storm but it looks sheared this run.

[centralweather44]

Bzzzzz. The bee's are a buzzing in here tonight.

[tim the weatherman]

by the way that according to accuweather fourms that tropical tidbit's website is down due to problems.

[Hawkeye]

The freezing rain advisory isn't panning out.  The very light rain we're getting is not causing any icing at all.

 

by the way that according to accuweather fourms that tropical tidbit's website is down due to problems.

 

Yes, the site has been the victim of multiple ddos attacks.

[Tom]

00z GFS turning the corner now for Thanksgiving day...the ridge off the west coast does not pump as far north and the system traverses the northern Rockies and ejects out in to the northern Plains.

 

Edit: Trough is deeper now...

[Tom]

00z GFS looking like the 12z GGEM/18z PAR...I like what I'm starting to see now.  Looks like a tight baraclynic zone setting up with pure arctic air to the north and early Autumn air to the south.  It's starting to show a band of accumulating snows from the SD/IA/MN/WI/IL.  Nothing crazy but certainly turning the corner from before.

[winterfreak]

Yeah looks a lot better and healthier thanks to the ridge not being nearly as far north. Still shows nada in the Central plains. Oh well, the rich get richer in the north plains/ Midwest.

[tim the weatherman]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dEgjwjKsymQ/VG_cklNmShI/AAAAAAAAdks/ASFsTh3LdKY/s1600/SN_000-240_0000.gifAt face value, the GEM would be kicking out a good 4-9" snowstorm from this clipper, with the highest amounts in those yellow shadings. With higher ratios taken into account, we would probably be facing a 5-10"+ snowstorm.(from theweathercentre)

[Tom]

Big difference this run, there is no GOA low where the models love to stick them and that screws up the entire pattern downstream.  Lets see what the GGEM/EURO show tonight.  Even though it doesn't show a big storm, its something to work off of.  Recognizing model bias and behavior is important to not get sucked into the long range dilemma!  Hahaha..

[Tom]

The storm train continues near Japan and there is another storm we will start tracking as we open up December in the central CONUS.  Looks like every 4-6 days there are some big storms that traverse the region.

[Tom]

00z Euro has a pretty potent and windy Clipper traversing the lakes with a brutal shot of cold for Thanksgiving...1-3" N IL/IA, 3-6" WI...this will be high ratios snowfalls as well.

 

 

[GDR]

The euro could be onto something for the east coast. Showing a 6-12 band from Philadelphia to Boston.

[tim the weatherman]

according to my forecast from twc and they are saying that barely no snow in the forecast and they are saying that no big storms for next weekend.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.giflol

[tim the weatherman]

i don't buy the cpc's forecast because they always bring warmer temps into their forecast just by looking at geos post about the ao forecast that it goes negative for a day and then it goes positve for another day and after that it stays negative according to thatand the way it looks that the nao dips down in negative as well.

[Tom]

CFSv2 says...what warm up???  LOL..looks like the models are starting to see the pattern.  GGEM looks very similar to what the CFSv2 is showing.  Was anyone worried about a warm up coming???  LRC will get this one right.

 

 

[GDR]

Wow that's almost to cold to be true!

[tim the weatherman]

CFSv2 says...what warm up???  LOL..looks like the models are starting to see the pattern.  GGEM looks very similar to what the CFSv2 is showing.  Was anyone worried about a warm up coming???  LRC will get this one right.

you're right tom that looking at this and the cpc i can sit back and laugh at the cpc's forecast that is why i don't buy their forecast any ways also on a side note was looking at the accuweather fourms that the weekend after thinksgiving that they're mentioning about a big storm to hit about that time.

[Tom]

Wow that's almost to cold to be true!

I wasn't up early enough to see the 00z run, might be over done of course but with a tanking WPO/EPO the cold will want to fight and come down south out of Canada.  The other thing is, the LRC will start cycle 2 during this period and it will most likely park the PV near Hudson Bay and this certainly will open the flood gates with cold.

 

I'm going to put my Christmas lights today and take advantage of this warmth today because next week won't be pretty unless you want to do it in the freezing cold and snow flying in the air!

[tim the weatherman]

I wasn't up early enough to see the 00z run, might be over done of course but with a tanking WPO/EPO the cold will want to fight and come down south out of Canada.  The other thing is, the LRC will start cycle 2 during this period and it will most likely park the PV near Hudson Bay and this certainly will open the flood gates with cold.

 

I'm going to put my Christmas lights today and take advantage of this warmth today because next week won't be pretty unless you want to do it in the freezing cold and snow flying in the air!

this is the sign with the wpo/epo goes negative and with the lrc to start cycle 2 and to park ths pv near the hudson bay and so that means the ao will go negative as well and that means the artic air will be coming down to the conus so that means we will be cashing on the big snowstorms to close out november and to start december.

[Tom]

SSW event blossoming in Eurasia.  It's no wonder the models were all over the place within the past 5 days or so in the extended.  This animation stops on Nov 18th which is a 4 day lag to today's date.  We can only assume this event is much bigger than where this animation stopped.  My feelings are the models will react better as we get closer towards the beginning of next week and the AO will show signs of tanking.  The models behaved this same exact way in mid/late October when the first SSW event took place in Eurasia.  Instead of the blow torch November, we ended up with a historic cold month.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tom]

The western Pacific is going to go through hyper activity to close out November and open December.  I see a potential December 2000 repeat in the making.  I counted at least 4 or 5 storms over the next 2 weeks to hit near Japan.  Amazingly active pattern setting up.

[Money]

How does the euro look for this wed?

[Tom]

12z Euro a little weaker for the Clipper next week...

[Tom]

Looks like the new LRC cycle will be around 43 days.  I guessed it would be around 45 days about a week ago, close enough.  The good thing about a shorter cycle, the storm systems come around more frequently than last years 55-57 day cycle!  This year we have some big ones to deal with.

[Tom]

BTW, has anyone noticed the split flow developing on the GFS/GFS Par???  That persistent HP that sits right near the Yukon/NW Canada is re-appearing and no more storm systems hitting the NE Pacific.  Exactly where the waters are warm.

[indianajohn]

Hey Guys, anyone seeing any LES for Indiana Wednesday/Thursday seen it on the news a few night ago. have some traveling to do and was just curious.

[Geos]

Looks like the new LRC cycle will be around 43 days.  I guessed it would be around 45 days about a week ago, close enough.  The good thing about a shorter cycle, the storm systems come around more frequently than last years 55-57 day cycle!  This year we have some big ones to deal with.

 

Nice... 43 days. 

 

It's amazing the teleconnection between the storms in Japan and the cascade effect that sends troughs into the Midwest. A very reliable teleconnection along with the SSW events.

They just keep on coming, with another one ready to fire off east of the Bearing Sea.

 

So far this month the departure has been -8.87°! I  at those CFSv2 maps from October showing coast to coast warmth almost!

[Tom]

Nice... 43 days. 

 

It's amazing the teleconnection between the storms in Japan and the cascade effect that sends troughs into the Midwest. A very reliable teleconnection along with the SSW events.

They just keep on coming, with another one ready to fire off east of the Bearing Sea.

 

So far this month the departure has been -8.87°! I  at those CFSv2 maps from October shows coast to coast warmth almost!

Geo's, did you finish putting up your Christmas lights???  I'm going back for round 2...went to Michaels to pick up some icicles and decorative items...they had 50% off on lights and decor.  Not too shabby.

[Geos]

Geo's, did you finish putting up your Christmas lights???  I'm going back for round 2...went to Michaels to pick up some icicles and decorative items...they had 50% off on lights and decor.  Not too shabby.

 

Couple hours worth to go yet. All the difficult ones are up. Now it's the ones that I wrap around the trunks of the trees, which are easy. I could do it right now, but I need to charge my batteries for my headlamp. Hopefully tomorrow isn't constant rain - looking at the NAM at least, it seems the steady rain will wait until early afternoon.

 

I don't know if they're just made better or if the LED "bulb" withstands the elements better, but I only had one line go bad out of all the ones I had out in the harsh elements last December! In fact some LED lights I've had four years now. 

[WBadgersW]

Let's see what the Nam shows.