February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Lake Michigan looks a whole different today! 

 

Spring ice break up.

 

[Tom]

12z GFS starting to show a slight amplification of a wave next Tuesday near IA.  Gotta pay attention and see how this develops as it fits the LRC pattern.

 

Can you say Polar Vortex next week!  My goodness it gets frigid next week.  That would send min 2 or 3 nights below zero in N IL, some nights 10's subzero in IA/N IL/WI.  That would be unprecedented for that late in the season!

[midwest buildit]

quick ?. how is our contest going that was started on the old forums? or was that forgotten?

[Tom]

I was thinking about that to Midwest...maybe Geo's or Dominick can dig that up from the October Discussions.

 

Anyway, this is what I have been eluding to happening next week along the arctic boundary.

[Tom]

12z Euro next week Thu/Fri...on the right track...

[Geos]

quick ?. how is our contest going that was started on the old forums? or was that forgotten?

 

I'll figure that out later in the week.

 

Up in the mid 40s despite a different wind direction and less mph.

[Tom]

Looking forward into the very last few days of February, it looks like the subtropical jet stream starts slamming storms into California and eventually into the Rockies.  With cold air fully entrenched, we could have some big time storms heading into March. 

[DominicR]

12z Euro next week Thu/Fri...on the right track...

 

Yeah well hopefully it doesent get to surpressed and squashed. I am not feeling to confident about that one. Prehaps a widespread light snow event in Plains and Ohio Valley right now.

[DominicR]

quick ?. how is our contest going that was started on the old forums? or was that forgotten?

Ah ya that's right. I should have copy and pasted that on new forum but it's completely gone now! Sorry.

[Jaycee]

Hell ya man!  Been hitting the gym hard and sculpting the body.  Chicago is going to go nuts when the temps hit the 60's/70's...I remember 2 years ago the Spring was so bad that when temps hit the 90's on Memorial Day...North Ave beach closed bc it was overly crowded.  I could see that happening this year if April doesn't flip warm.

Haha I was actually going to ask you about your workout plan. I go 5 days a week for the past 4 years (serious), and I'm pretty cut, just want to put on the mass. Still only weigh 160, even though I started at 130. 

 

I'm beyond ready for spring, I'm going to a huge concert in Chicago in June too, can not wait! It's been too long since I've gotten around to Lake Michigan in the summer. So many hotties   

[tim the weatherman]

Hell ya man!  Been hitting the gym hard and sculpting the body.  Chicago is going to go nuts when the temps hit the 60's/70's...I remember 2 years ago the Spring was so bad that when temps hit the 90's on Memorial Day...North Ave beach closed bc it was overly crowded.  I could see that happening this year if April doesn't flip warm.

i agree tom that 2011 2012 winter season was so mild that march of that year was so warm that by memorial day we had temps like you said that it was in the 90's that this year we could be looking at a warm april and a hot may to september 2014.

[Tom]

After this storm departs on Thursday, the pattern shift will begin back to the same Ol' story we have seen all winter long.  One that will be locked in for quite some time as we head into March.  A lot of the research and analysis of various wx patterns I've been monitoring are all starting to come together to produce one heck of a ride into March.  I believe next month may be one of the more snowier months we have seen thus far this winter and some blockbuster storms are certainly very possible.  Next month may end up being extremely cold and snowy.  There is a lot to look forward to for snow lovers that may be disappointed from the rain we will be getting tomorrow.

[East Dubzz]

Currently 37 here. What a nice day once again!

[Tom]

With a renewed visit of the PV coming next week into March, I would expect the Great Lakes break the ice coverage record during our new satellite-era.  Another record that this relentless winter may break.

[East Dubzz]

The cold can go away in March, I have spring baseball and it really sucks when it's cold and snowy!

[Tom]

Impressive departures from normal to finish off this month....now you know why I was paying attention to the Stratospheric Warming event taking place.  It means business and will lock in the pattern for the next month.

 

[Geos]

I doubt the pattern will last a month. The saying that March goes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb is almost always true.

 

---

 

A side by side comparison of Lake Michigan today vs. last Friday.

 

[DominicR]

I say one more 6-12+ at least to end the winter season sometime in March. Snow def not over. Even April we have had rare snowstorms.

[DominicR]

Wow we went 18 years without  a 10+ snowstorm. From February 12, 1981 to January 1, 1999

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I doubt the pattern will last a month. The saying that March goes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb is almost always true.

 

---

 

A side by side comparison of Lake Michigan today vs. last Friday.

 

 

Didn't really happen last March.

[Tom]

This aint a normal winter, March came in like a Lion last year and roared thru April.  I'm anticipating another wild March when others (esp JB) thought it would flip, but now he is on board with a brutal March, possibly worse than last year.  So get ready! 

[tim the weatherman]

This aint a normal winter, March came in like a Lion last year and roared thru April.  I'm anticipating another wild March when others (esp JB) thought it would flip, but now he is on board with a brutal March, possibly worse than last year.  So get ready! 

skilling is saying the same that he said that the long range has a colder march for us.

[Tom]

Ouch!  Off the charts cold...

[tim the weatherman]

thereis an interesteing article on the weather centre's blog about an el nino trying to form and andrew at the blog just said that it could be an el nino by next winter and it might be a mild one with less snowfall.

[Geos]

Didn't really happen last March.

 

The last week of March it broke up. Shot into the 50s for awhile. I suspect will have a warm spell in March sometime. But that's next month.

 

Sitting with about 5-6" of snow in sunny areas of my yard. An average of 11" in shaded areas. 14" tops where it drifted.

 

If we loose the snow, it will be a different story with temperatures in the extended.

[Tom]

The next big storm that fits the LRC following tomorrow's system is already showing up in the long range on the GFS.  Look for the March 1-3rd period that would fit the Jan 4-5th storm in Cycle 2.  This could be another monster to track.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a very similar wave that snowed in our region on Christmas Day in Cycle 2.  I had a feeling it would start showing up soon.  Maybe it can amplify a little more.  This would be solid advisory type snows in IA...weakens a bit as it heads into N IL.  This would equate to 25:1 snow ratios if it pans out the way its showing right now.

 

 

[james1976]

surprised no one is talking about the huge storm that the GFS keeps showing for next weekend.

[Tom]

James, that's the next big storm I mentioned that will be hitting the area which is also apart of the LRC.  Looks to be a juicy one.  Both GGEM/GFS are showing it, just waiting to see if the Euro comes on board.  Still a ways away so lets see what happens along the arctic boundary early next week if we can squeeze a few inches of new snow.

[Tom]

Who say's subzero cold is not possible late in February???  Mother Nature is going to remind a lot of us who is in control and usher in close to the coldest air of the season if everything aligns just right.  Almost all of us that live in this region will remember the Winter of 2013-14 for the ages.  This month is going to finish off incredibly cold and March will roar in like a Lion.  It's going to be a long, long road till we see the light at the end of the tunnel.

[james1976]

James, that's the next big storm I mentioned that will be hitting the area which is also apart of the LRC.  Looks to be a juicy one.  Both GGEM/GFS are showing it, just waiting to see if the Euro comes on board.  Still a ways away so lets see what happens along the arctic boundary early next week if we can squeeze a few inches of new snow.

Just saw your post Tom, sorry. Yeah im already excited about this storm!

[james1976]

Tuesday looking better!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[DominicR]

Tuesday looking better!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Yeah instantweathermaps brings 6-10 inch for N NEB and even some 6+ amounts in IA with a good chunk of western state at least advisory.

[DominicR]

It comes in 2 different pieces almost identical in NEB.

[DominicR]

Tom, I think early March gonna be active. Looks like a few pacific storms could come into play work around the cold aka CO low and give Plains finally a more active storm pattern as well as continuation here.

[Tom]

+1 Dom, that's what I'm thinking and after looking over the 12z Euro Ensembles 500mb pattern into March, its just beautiful.  The Plains look like they will start cashing in on some good snows.  Some areas may even hit their normal seasonal snowfalls in March!  Just like we almost did last year.

 

 

The storm around 3/2-3/3 has the looks of a monster.  We all know what it did around here back on Jan 4-5th...and look what happened to this storm today how explosive it became.

[Niko]

+1 Dom, that's what I'm thinking and after looking over the 12z Euro Ensembles 500mb pattern into March, its just beautiful.  The Plains look like they will start cashing in on some good snows.  Some areas may even hit their normal seasonal snowfalls in March!  Just like we almost did last year.

 

 

The storm around 3/2-3/3 has the looks of a monster.  We all know what it did around here back on Jan 4-5th...and look what happened to this storm today how explosive it became.

Tom..do you see any potential in terms of heavy snowfall in SEMI with the 3-2 to 3-3 storm? My seasonal so far is an incredible 79.3" and the all time record snowiest season is I believe 93.5". Right now, I am standing in 3rd snowiest winters ever. I am 5 tenths away from being the 2nd snowiest winter. So far the models are not showing anything, but hopefully by next week they will start.

[Tom]

If this storms performs like it did in Cycle 2, the southern 1/3 of Michigan should cash in on snow as well.  I'm sure DTX will break the all time snowiest season on record.  March is going to be very active.

[james1976]

WOW!!!
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_252_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Tom]

My Grid forecast for Wednesday night already down to  -1F...